Week 7 - Saint Lawrence Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will look to extend their current winning streak to five games with a win Saturday up at Saint Lawrence University. The Saints (2-3, 1-1) are coming off a tough, 34-10, road loss at RPI from Week 6.

Hobart (5-1, 2-0) has dominated this series of late, winning the last 12 in a row and 30 out of the last 31 matchups, dating back to the 1992 season. Due to this long run, the Statesmen lead the all-time series, over Saint Lawrence, 56-26-2, making Saturday the 85th game in this series that dates all the way back to 1901.

Scouting the Saints

Saint Lawrence is passing team, having thrown the ball 56.7% of their offensive play calls. They average over 200 YPG passing, compared to only 42.8 YPG rushing. Defensively the Saints struggle to stop the run, allowing opponents to 173.2 YPG rushing and 11 of the 17 TDs they've surrendered this year have been on the ground. 

Leading the Saint Lawrence offense is SR QB Daniel Lawther. Hobart fans may remember him when he had to come into the 2021 game at the Boz after Tyler Grochot was basically knocked out by OLB Emmett Forde '22. This season Lawther has gone 75-116 passing for 719 yards and four TDs with three INTs.

His main target has been SR TE Oskar Baldwin (pictured above). Baldwin has hauled in 26 catches for 338 yards and four TDs. SR RB Will Lederman is often deployed like Rayshawn Boswell '23 was, in the wildcat, for goal-to-go situations. While he's only rushed 66 times for 233 yards (under 47 YPG), he's managed to score all five of the Saints rushing TDs this season. 

Defensively Saint Lawrence is led by a pair of strong linebackers in SO LB Savino Moreli and JR LB Ryan Suroff. They have tallied a total of 38 and 36 tackles, respectively. Suroff leads the team with 7 TFL and Moreli is second with 4.5 TFL. 

JR PK Clayton Fogler has been a perfect 5-5 on FGs this season with a long of 38, which was the OT game winner over Union in Week 5. He is also a nearly perfect, 9-10 on PATs. Fogler also handles KOs, where he averages 54.3 YPKO. Punting duties were mostly handled by JR WR Jack O'Brien, but it appears like FY PK Sam Arbaugh took over during the RPI game and has averaged 35 YPP net average with two dropped inside the opponents 20-yard line.

The Saints return game has been relatively modest, averaging only four yards on punts and approximately 16 yards on KORs.

Keys to the Game:

1. RTB (Run the Ball):  There's no denying this matchup plays to Hobart's strengths. The Statesmen average 145 YPG rushing and should be able to surpass that amount against the Saint Lawrence defense. 

2. Turnovers: The Saints have struggled to protect the football, currently having a -7 TOM. I would expect the Hobart defense to force at least one or two more turnovers Saturday, helping the Statesmen offense build a (hopefully) insurmountable lead.

3. Bring it On Home: This will be the last long road trip of the 2024, at least in the regular season. The Statesmen would like to return to the Boz on a five-game win streak when they host long-time conference rivals (and struggling) Union College (1-4, 0-1) in Week 8.

Prediction:

I think a heavy run game, some defensive plays and a solid performance all-around will help Hobart to a 35-7-win Saturday. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Statesmen Take Sole Possession of First Place in 31-3 Win Over Buff State

It was great football Saturday for the Hobart College Statesmen who improved to 5-1 overall and took sole possession of first place in the Liberty League conference standings (2-0). The Statesmen have also won four in a row for the first time since the end of 2022 regular season. 

With four games left to play, Hobart controls it's post-season and NCAA playoff destiny. The Statesmen still have to grind through the meat of their conference regular season, but they are playing well and dominating the competition, especially on defense.

JR OLB Mike McGhee got a 67-yard pick six to start yesterday's game against Buffalo State (2-3, 0-1) on a positive note. SO QB Tru Styles was solid in his first start, racking up 189 total yards, including three passing TDs. SO EJ Taylor had another strong day rushing the football, carrying 17 times for 95 yards. 

FY WR and likely LLROTY candidate Johnny Harding had a big game also, catching seven passes for 83 yards and two TDs. The defense was led by SR LB Anthony Romano with nine total tackles and 1.5 TFL. This was the second game this season that the Statesmen defense has not allowed a TD. 

You can read more about the game from the HWSAthletics.com recap here. 

Up next for Hobart is a trip up north to play Saint Lawrence. The Saints (2-3, 1-1) lost to RPI (3-3, 1-1) yesterday, 34-10. I was able to catch most of that game since it started at noon. I'll have more on the Saints game early next week.

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 6 - Buffalo State Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will hit the road this weekend for the first of two trips away from the friendly confines of the Boz. This week Hobart (4-1, 1-0) will look to improve their Liberty League record to 2-0 with a win over the Buffalo State Bengals. Buff State (2-2. 0-0) has already matched last season's win total going into their LL schedule.

The Statesmen are 7-3 all-time against the Bengals dating back to the 1984 season. Hobart has won the last five contests (the first taking place in 1993, a game I attended in person), including the last four in a row where Buff State has been an affiliate member of the LL. 

Last season Hobart dispatched the Bengals by a score of 45-21 (the same score they won by in 2021, ironically). Needless to say, while I get Buff State has improved, I still expect a Statesmen win by at least a few scores.

Scouting the Bengals

Some of the Buff State stats were negatively affected by them taking on and losing by 55 points to Mercyhurst, an FCS D1 level program, last weekend. Still, here are some of the highlights from their team so far this season.

While their mascot is a jungle cat, the Bengals have utilized a veritable stable of RBs this season. Buff State has had four different ball carriers with at least 17-20+ rushing attempts and three RBs with over 100 yards rushing this season. Leading the way is SR RB Ale Wilson (I'm pretty sure that's pronounced like Ah-lay) with a team high 42 carries for 243 yards. Pictured above is SR RB Cody Phillips who has 35 carries for 86 yards and one rush TD. Phillips has also caught two passes for 27 yards and one TD. 

The Bengals are a run first team (121 rushing attempts vs. 45 passing) and have had two different QBs play so far this season. SO QB Amir Cameron had five passing TDs vs. Hilbert in Week 3 but has thrown 2 INTs since. JR QB Noah Kimble has passed for 221 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs.

SR WR Tariq Nelson has been their favorite target, catching 14 passes for 156 yards and 2 TDs. Big SR TE Julian Maloney (6' 4", 240 lbs.) has a TD reception and could create matchup problems near the goal line and running game.

JR LB Sincere Green leads the defensive side of the ball with a team high 37 tackles, 9.5 TFL and three sacks.

SR PK Nick Sciandra handles the kicking duties. He averages almost 39 net yards as a punter, 51.4 yards on KOs, and has gone 1-2 on FGs, but to his credit, the one he made was from 53 yards.

SR WR Darion Jones has been their primary return man, averaging 12.67 yards on PRs and 19.27 yards on KORs.

Keys to the Game:

1. Play With Style(s): Given the uncertainty surrounding the injury suffered by SR QB Johnny Columbi in the Ithaca game, I am assuming SO QB Tru Styles will get the start on Saturday. This is kind of the perfect situation to get him more reps and work with the offense. 

2. Stay Consistent: While the Hobart passing attack still needs work, the running game, defense and special teams have been great. Hopefully this game will allow those units to continue fine tuning their already solid status, while allowing the passing game a chance to work some of its kinks out. The Bengals have been allowing over 300 yards of total offense and at least three TDs per game.

3. Win and Move On: While the Statesmen can't overlook Buff State, they are definitely the stronger team. This is just one of those "business trips" where Hobart can fine tune things and look to give second and third string players valuable game experience. 

Prediction:

Given how well the Hobart defense is playing, this could be a shutout. I still think this Bengals team is a little better than last season. but will struggle to score until later in the game. I'll take the Statesmen to win 42-7 with a good mix of passing, rushing and maybe even a defensive TD in this one.

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!

Special Teams, Defense Saves the Day for Statesmen, 16-7, Over Ithaca

Finally!!!

A large homecoming crowd of 2,378 fans, friends and alums saw Hobart get their sixth ever win against the Ithaca Bombers, breaking a six-game losing streak that dated back to 2016. The Statesmen (4-1, 1-0) had a tough start, with their first offensive possession from the shadow of their own goal line. JR PK Vicente Lyon would flip the field with an 86-yard punt. Hobart had the good luck for a change, and it never left them.

The defense would ultimately carry the day, holding the Bombers (1-3, 0-1) to 6-15 on third down and 0-4 on fourth down. The Hobart offense struggled in the passing game, and SR QB Johnny Columbi was injured near the end of the first half forcing backup SO QB Tru Styles into action. 

Styles had a big 49-yard pass to JR WR Ahmad Crowell and kept the Statesmen offense moving, but you have to credit Ithaca. The Bombers defense held Hobart to 1-10 on third down, so Lyon ended up being the MVP of the day, averaging 65 YPP. 

SO RB E.J. Taylor rushed 18 times for 99 yards (5.5 YPR) and scored Hobart's only TD of the game. SR PK Tobias Wefering went 3-3 on FGs and 1-1 on PATs to provide 10 points in the Statesmen's big win. 

With Rochester (5-0, 1-0) defeating RPI (2-3, 0-1) today, the Statesmen are tied for first place in the Liberty League standings with the Yellow Jackets, pending the Union-Saint Lawrence game. Next week Hobart will hit the road to take on Buffalo State (2-2, 0-0).

It will be interesting to see if Styles will need to start that game pending the outcome of Columbi's injury. 

That's all for now. It feels great to have that big win, arguably the biggest regular season victory in HC Kevin DeWall's career.

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 5 - Ithaca Game Preview

While some teams schedule an easy win for their homecoming game, the Hobart College Statesmen will host defending Liberty League champions, Ithaca College, this Saturday. This is the biggest game of the season, as Hobart (3-1) has struggled to solve the Bombers (1-2) for several years now.

The Statesmen have lost six in a row against Ithaca and have a 5-31 all-time mark against their Finger Lakes and LL rivals. Hobart's last win in this series, ironically enough, was also a homecoming game back in 2016. The Statesmen dominated the Bombers that day to the tune of 23-3.

This season Ithaca comes into this game with a losing record, having dropped their first two games against (then) nationally ranked Johns Hopkins and Endicott (who just beat RPI also, 28-20). This makes Saturday's game a playoff elimination game for the Bombers. Hobart will need to dig deep to figure out a way to defeat an Ithaca team that always seems to benefit from good luck against the Statesmen.

We saw that "luck" in action last year, when a bad punt snap gave the Bombers a 14-7 lead in the second quarter they never relinquished. We saw it in 2021 when the Statesmen's top defensive player was ejected in a game that ended up being decided by a TD.

It's not Halloween yet, but Hobart needs to exorcise some Ithaca demons this Saturday to take the next step.

Scouting the Bombers

Ithaca graduated off a good number of seniors and fifth years in the offseason, but there are still several familiar names on the Bombers roster this year. Leading the offense is SR RB Jalen Leonard-Osborne. The Ardsley, NY native always seems to have big games against the Statesmen defense. So far this season he's rushed for 197 yards on 39 carries, adding three catches for 88 yards. He has scored two rushing TDs and is averaging over 30 YPKO in the return game for Ithaca.

Alongside JLO is SR RB Jake Williams. He has rushed 38 times for 139 yards and one rush TD. At QB, the Bombers seem to be running a system where both SO QBs Colin Schumm and Matthew Parker take turns leading the offense. Schumm is 40-70 passing for 475 yards with three pass TDs but also four INTs. Parker, who came in to play for Schumm when he was injured in the Endicott game, has gone 11-20 passing for 138 yards and two INTs. These turnover struggles are a big reason why IC is coming into this game with a losing record.

One thing you notice looking at the stat sheet is Ithaca likes to spread the ball around in the passing game. They have six receivers with at least five catches in the first three games of the season. Leading the way is SO WR Nicholas Lang with a team high 12 receptions for 105 yards and one TD. Not far behind are SO WR Nicholas Matos and SR WR Ben Marinaccio who both have eight catches a piece for a combined 262 yards and one TD.

Defensively Ithaca is led by SR DB Jake Connolly with 24 total tackles and four TFL. On the DL keep an eye on #91 SR DL Owen O'Neill who has a team high 4.5 TFL. SR LB Darren Brunner and JR LB Ryan Burns are solid tacklers also, with 22 and 21 tackles each. 

On special teams Brunner also happens to be the punter, averaging almost 39 YPP. FGs, KOs and PATs are handled by SR PK Derek Baldin. He's 2-2 on the year for FGs with a long of 45 yards (against Hopkins). He averages about 62 YPKO and has six touchbacks on the year, so I don't expect many return chances for Hobart Saturday.

Keys to the Game:

1. Home(coming) Cooking - Hobart's home record under HC Kevin DeWall '00 is 26-3 if my math is correct, but two of those home losses were to Ithaca. Given the Bombers tough start, albeit against a stronger schedule, this is a great opportunity for the Statesmen to finally break the Ithaca winning streak. This season the Bombers didn't get their annual advantage of an extra week of prep for Hobart given their game against Curry College last weekend and their bye in Week 3. Hopefully this will level the playing field some that will allow the Statesmen to give what should be a large, homecoming crowd a lot to cheer about.

2. Turnovers - Last year, Hobart was undone by two fumbles and special teams' miscues that the Bombers were able to capitalize on. This season it looks like Ithaca is a team that struggles protecting the football, having thrown six INTs and fumbling away the ball twice in their 1-2 start. With the Statesmen's swarming defense, Ithaca should have some trouble moving the ball and with enough pressure could end up providing Hobart with a game changing take away (or two) if things go well.

3. Weather the Storm - Every year it always seems like the Statesmen make a big mistake in the game vs. Ithaca that triggers the old "here we go again". Even if Hobart has some bad luck, they need to stay focused and not revert to the past where the Statesmen have lost composure and/or given up big plays down the stretch. Ithaca will come into this game hungry and expecting to win. The Statesmen will need to take a few punches early and deliver a few of their own to let the Bombers know this year will be different.

Prediction:

While some may think it's crazy to pick against a team that has an 86% winning percentage against the other; for some reason, kind of like 2016, this feels like the year Hobart will finally beat the Bombers. They've been close in four of the last six contests but found ways to come up short. This year Statesmen offense is coming into their own at the right time and the defense has proven they are a Top 25 caliber unit. I think this will be a lower scoring game, with Hobart able to hang on for a close 23-20 victory that may very well come down to the final play. 

Hoping for the best this homecoming weekend and wishing I was there in person for this one, but I'll have to catch it online per usual. 

Thanks everyone for reading and go 'Bart!

Career Day for Columbi Leads Statesmen, 52-9, Over Keystone

The Hobart College Statesmen played a near perfect game this Saturday, clicking in every aspect with great plays on offense, defense and special teams. The Statesmen (3-1) were a little sloppy, committing 12 penalties for -100 yards, but did pretty much everything else right in PA.

SR QB Johnny Columbi had a career best 15-21 passing (71.4%), 268 yards, 4 passing and 1 rushing TDs. The Hobart defense held Keystone (1-3) to 3 FGs and was paced by FY DB Corey Rock with 2 INTs including a 17-yard pick six.

SR PK Tobias Wefering added a 41-yard FG and went a perfect 5-5 on PATs. 

It was an impressive performance for the Statesmen as they head into Liberty League play next weekend against Ithaca (1-2). I'll have an in-depth preview for that one early next week. 

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 4 - Keystone Game Preview

I'm doing my best Ken DeBolt impression and waiting until the last minute to get my game notes / analysis out. Just kidding, like Ken has it every week during the fall, winter and spring sports seasons, this work week for me has been hell so I am late getting around to this game preview. 

The Keystone College Giants have been a program that's going through the usual growing pains after first starting their football program in 2021. They switched from the ECFC to the Landmark Conference back in 2023 and finished 2-8, 1-5 that season. This year the Giants are off to a 1-2 overall start, and are coming off a tough, 42-40, loss to Saint John Fisher (1-1) last weekend. 

Hobart (2-1) is 3-0 all time against the Keystone, having won all three matchups by an average score of 55-10. I expect this year's game to be fairly lopsided again as the Statesmen's offense seems to be figuring things out. Liberty League play starts up in Week 5 and this is a good final tune up for Hobart going into that critical game against Ithaca. 

Scouting the Giants

Keystone likes to throw the football and pictured above is their number one target, SR WR Jayson Nami. He's collected 13 catches for 268 yards and four TDs this season. The Giants average nearly 250 YPG passing. Running the offense is SR QB Donald Leach III. Through three games this season he's passed for 756 yards, eight TDs and five INTs. 

Their leading rusher is a dual threat as SR RB Mujaheed Muhammad has a team high 62 carries for 428 yards and five rushing TDs. Muhammad has also caught six passes for 85 yards and two receiving TDs. 

Defensively Keystone is led by SR LB Keith Johnson with 21 total tackles, including 1.5 TFL. On special teams the Giants have JR PK Jeremiah Ortiz who handles KO, P and FG/PAT duties. He averages 49.3 YPKO, 32.5 YPP and has gone 1-2 on FGs with a long of 39 yards. He's 12-13 on PATs also.

Return game wise Keystone has averaged 11 YPPR and 21.5 YPKOR.

Keys to the Game:

1. Fast Start - Hobart has yet to score in the first quarter of a game this season. I would love to see the Statesmen take their first drive on offense to the house and set the tone early. 

2. Pressure = Turnovers - Although the Giants are a senior-laden team, they have struggled to protect the football. The Keystone OL has not allowed any sacks so far on the season, but Leach III has been picked off at least once in each game so far this season. Keeping the pressure on the Giants can force some turnovers that will help set up the offense with good field position.

3. Test the Secondary - as good as the Giants are at passing the ball, their pass defense has been suspect, and something the Statesmen can exploit. Keystone is giving up almost 280 YPG passing, so look for SR QB Johnny Columbi to find open Statesmen down the field in this one. 

Prediction:

While I don't think Hobart will crack 50 points in this one, I do feel like the Statesmen should win comfortably. I could see this being a 35-14 game if the offense can come out and get off to a fast start. I could see the defense really give Keystone a long day, but the Giants may still score some points given their experience (and the likelihood of Hobart subbing in some second and third string guys in the second half).

That's it for now. Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!