Wishing everyone a happy and healthy Veterans Day. Thank you to all who have served our country and protected our freedom.
Now let's talk some D3FB.
The Hobart College Statesmen will honor their seniors and fifth-year players (the final time for the latter given the end of the extra COVID year of eligibility) this Saturday at the Boz, with a lot on the line. The Statesmen (8-1, 5-0) have the opportunity to retain the Centennial Cup trophy, win the Liberty League Championship outright and hopefully maintain a first-round bye position for the NCAA playoffs. Hobart stands at #22 in the NPI rankings and could move up to the 20-21 range after this weekend, which would keep them out of the first-round play in games, based on my understanding of how the seeding works.
After starting 5-0, Rochester has lost three of their last four games, including two in a row. The Yellow Jackets (6-3, 2-3) dropped a 34-13 decision to Union in Week 10. They appear to have lost GR RB Daniel Papantonis for the season after the Saint Lawrence game, which could be a big reason for their recent struggles.
Rochester is Hobart's oldest rival, and the Statesmen have 60-48-7 all-time record against the Yellow Jackets, making Saturday's contest the 116th edition of this rivalry. The Statesmen have won twelve straight against the UofR dating back to the 2011 season. Rochester last beat Hobart, 35-34 in 2OT back in the 2010 season.
Scouting the Yellow Jackets
Despite their more recent struggles, this has been a successful season for the UofR. Six wins is a mark they haven't met going all the way back to the 2007 season and seven wins is something that hasn't happened since 2006.
Rochester is a run first offense, calling runs about 58% of their total plays this season. With Papadonis out, JR RB Jake Adelman has picked up the slack, rushing for 231 yards and three TDs. SR QB Ryan Rose has passed for almost 1100 yards, but last week he was benched after throwing two INTs. FY QB Creighton Wise came in and played better, going 9-20 for 140 yards and two passing TDs. I am guessing he may get the start Saturday.
The top receiving targets for Rose and Wise have varied. Rochester has five WRs with at least one TD catch. SR WR Trey Johnson leads the team with 45 catches for 385 yards. He has three receiving TDs on the year. JR WR Aidan Papadonis leads the team with four TD catches and is not far behind Johnson's totals with 32 catches for 341 yards. SO WR Samuel Nuamah (pictured above) is a big target, standing 6' 4" and 220 lbs. He has caught two TD passes over the past two weeks, so clearly, he's becoming a bigger part of the Rochester game plan.
JR LB Luke Herter leads a solid Yellow Jackets defense that has held opponents to just under 17 PPG this season. He leads the team with 72 total tackles. The Hobart OL will need to keep an eye on GR LB Joe DeBonis. He leads Rochester with five sacks and 9.5 TFL. JR DB Jordy Tawa has been a ball hawk this year, collecting seven INTs and 11 PBUs.
On special teams the Yellow Jackets utilize two different players. SR PK Alex Wing handles punting duties, averaging over 38 YPP. SR PK Jordan Laudani is 0-3 on FG attempts, so I don't expect us to see any tried Saturday. Laudani is better at KOs, averaging over 52 YPKO, on those.
Leading WR Trey Johnson has been the primary return man on punts and KORs. According to the Yellow Jackets stat sheet, he returned a KO 95 yards for a TD against the University of New England back in Week 4.
Keys to the Game:
1. Stretch the Field: Last Saturday, Union passed for 325 yards and three passing TDs against this Rochester defense. JR QB Patch Flanagan is not as accurate a passer as SR QB Johnny Columbi, so this could be a good opportunity for the Statesmen offense to try to mix things up a bit before the playoffs.
2. But Pound the Rock and Play Hobart Defense: In their losses to Ithaca and Buffalo State, the Yellow Jackets struggled to stop the Bombers and Bengals rushing attack. Ithaca's was especially productive, racking up nearly 300 yards on the ground to go with two rushing TDs. The Statesmen defense just needs to keep doing what it does and could have a field day if Wise gets the start. The Yellow Jackets have struggled with turnovers this season and there should be some more with the pressure Hobart brings.
3. Just Win: Capping off the regular season at 9-1 and with a playoff berth hasn't happened since 2016. This is a great opportunity to send off the seniors and fifth years with a memorable win and build momentum towards the playoffs. While we won't know Hobart's fate until Sunday night, we can rest assured a 9-1 record should enable the Statesmen to earn a valuable first-round bye.
Prediction:
I think Hobart wins big, 35-7 and keeps the Centennial Cup home for yet another year.
Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!