Projecting Hobart's Playoff Possibilities

The Hobart College Statesmen booked their latest trip to the NCAA Playoffs by clinching the Liberty League Championship in Week 9 with a win over RPI, 27-21 (and a little help from Buffalo State). Sitting at 8-1, 5-0, Hobart can win the title outright with a win over Rochester (7-2, 4-2) in Week 11. This would help the Statesmen guarantee themselves a shot at a first-round playoff bye. A loss would all but guarantee Hobart dropping into the first-round pool of play in games at 8-2.

Staying positive, and assuming a Hobart Week 11 victory, we will then have to wait and see what the Statesmen's draw to the NCAA tournament will be based on the new NCAA Power Index (NPI) system and bracketing process. Currently in the 23rd spot in the latest NPI rankings, Hobart is basically sitting in what one could interpret as a sixth seed position. Think of it this way - 1-8 are the one and two seeds, 9-12 are the three seeds, 13-16 are the four seeds, 17-20 are the five seeds, and 21-24 are the six seeds. The 26-40 ranked NPI teams are the 7 and 8 seeds who will play in Round 1. It should be noted that there are five teams / conferences (ECFC, HCAC, SCIAC, UMAC and USAC) that are below the Top 40, so the "cut off" line is effectively at 35 for teams with Pool C / at-large hopes. As long as Hobart stays in the Top 24, they get a bye week. That said, their current and likely final position is one that almost guarantees a road playoff game, so we will have to plan accordingly come Selection Sunday. 

Cortland's title run last season was from a similar (maybe 5th seed) standing, so just saying...

Looking up the rankings, there are at least five teams ahead of the Statesmen that could potentially lose and help Hobart move up a spot or more, especially with the boost of beating a 7-win Rochester squad. #22 UMHB has to play conference rival and undefeated Hardin-Simmons (8-0, 4-0) this Saturday. The last game was a blowout win for the Cowboys, so you could expect UMHB to drop to 4-2 in D3 games, which would be good for the Statesmen to move up to at least #22.

Up next is undefeated #19 Lake Forest (8-0, 7-0) of the Midwest Conference who has a championship game against Monmouth (7-1, 7-0) this Saturday. A win by Monmouth wouldn't necessarily knock LFC out of the playoffs, but a loss by #35 Monmouth would likely send them to the Lakefront Bowl (the annual postseason bowl game between the runners up of the MWC and NACC).

#16 Marietta plays #9 Mount Union in a battle of 8-0 teams this weekend also. A win by Marietta would be a big one, while a win for the Purple Raiders could move them into the Top 8 "protected teams". Under this new system, the Top 8 is guaranteed home games and not having to play any of the other Top 8 teams until the national quarterfinals.

#10 DePauw is another undefeated team, and will play conference rivals Wabash (7-1, 6-0) in Week 11 for the "Monon Bell" trophy and NCAC title/Pool A bid. A win by DePauw and losses by other teams could move them into the Top 8, but a loss wouldn't knock them out of the playoffs. A Wabash win would lift them up considerably from their current #37 position which is just outside the playoff "bubble" at the moment. 

Sitting in the #5 spot is undefeated Whitworth (8-0, 5-0) of the Northwest Conference. Despite their record and standing, many think they will lose to perennial NWC powerhouse Linfield (7-1, 5-0). The Wildcats only loss this season is to UW-Oshkosh (6-1, 4-1 in D3 play), who has a chance to win the WIAC, considered by most to the best conference in the nation. Linfield currently sits at #30 but would likely rise up into the Top 24 with a win in Week 11 against Whitworth. The loss would drop the Pirates out of the Top 8, but not out of the playoff picture, but would likely end up above the Statesmen still. 

That said I am betting on Hobart ending up in the 20-21 range and playing in Round 2 on the road, perhaps against a team like Springfield or maybe Johns Hopkins. The Statesmen's geographic location could send them into the Midwest, but I have a feeling with Salisbury and Cortland in the Top 8 there's a good chance Hobart ends up in their bracket. However, we could see a situation like 2012 where the Statesmen were sent into more of a Midwest bracket and with teams like NCC and Mount Union in the Top 8, Hobart could end up there with a shot at playing the Purple Raiders in the Sweet 16, potentially.

At the end of the day, this is all conjecture on my part. The good news is the Statesmen will have this weekend and Week 12 to rest up and get ready for Rochester and the postseason. It's been a while, so I am looking forward to seeing Hobart's name called on Selection Sunday for the first time in eight years. Wherever we end up, we will have a chance. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Statesmen Win First Conference Championship Since 2016, Outlast RPI, 27-21

It's been a long time since I've been able to write the Hobart College Football team are the Liberty League Conference Champions and are going to the National Playoffs.

It feels pretty good to do so.

The Statesmen (8-1, 5-0) had some help from Buffalo State and gritty performances from all three phases of the game. SR PK Tobias Wefering set the all-time FG record (32) with a 43-yarder with 9:37 to go in the second quarter. 

SR QB Johnny Columbi had a strong game, going 17-28 for 258 yards passing and three TDs with only one INT. Although Hobart did give up a 27-6 third quarter lead, they managed to make some great plays in the fourth quarter to hang on and win.

The Hobart defense gave up three TDs in the game after not allowing any since Week 5, but I think this was more to it being Week 9 and just running out of steam. In the end players like JR OLB Mike McGhee, SR OLB Jamien Bliss and others made big plays down the stretch. 

The Statesmen get a bye for Week 10, and I'll have some thoughts regarding the next round of NPI rankings early next week. Enjoy this one. It's been a long time since we celebrated a conference championship. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 9 - RPI Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen's march to their first Liberty League championship in eight years will head to Troy, NY to take on the RPI Engineers (3-4, 1-2). RPI had a bye week in Week 8 so they will have had extra time to prepare for this big game. 

The Statesmen (7-1, 4-0) have a narrow 33-32-1 all-time series lead over the Engineers, making this Saturday's 3 PM kickoff the 67th game in this rivalry that dates back to 1910. Last season Hobart came back from being down 14-10 at the half and 21-10 in the third quarter, to beat RPI, 31-21.

Scouting the Engineers

While looking at their seasons to date and relative trajectories, one could assume Hobart is a big favorite to win this weekend. A closer look shows that the Statesmen haven't beaten RPI in Troy in their last three visits, and the last win was 10 years ago, during the historic 2014 season. Hobart is 15-19 all-time on the road vs. the Engineers, so they can't take this team lightly. RPI has played a tough schedule, including games against two nationally ranked teams, so they are accustomed to big games.

Leading the Engineers offense is an experienced but mistake prone SR QB in Jake Kazanowsky. He has passed for a LL-leading 1,307 yards but also a LL-worst, eight INTs. At their core, RPI is a run-first offense, and features three RBs - SO RB Kayden White, SR RB Dameon Ming, and SR RB Cristian Buckley - that have over 30+ carries on the season who've average 3.1-5.8 YPR. This triumvirate has gained a total of 532 rushing yards together and scored nine of RPI's 13 rushing TDs.

The Engineers most dangerous offensive weapon however is JR WR Hayden Faraday. Having seen him in person in Week 1, Faraday is able to stretch defenses with his route running and quickness. He has collected 37 passes for 467 yards and two TDs. SR WR Sean Kelly is more of a possession receiver and leads the team with 43 catches for 414 yards and one TD.

Defensively RPI ranks just behind Hobart in rushing defense, allowing only 106.1 rush YPG and only five rushing TDs on the season. SR LB Anthony D'Agostino leads the Engineers with 54 total tackles. On the DL, RPI is led by SR DL Nate Sicard (pictured above) with six TFL and two sacks.

On special teams, the Engineers mostly rely on JR PK Aleksandar Maric, who handles FGs (5-8, long of 31) and KOs (57.8 YPKO average). Punting duties have primarily been handled by JR PK Anderson Burke. He's averaged nearly 38 YPP with a long of 52. In the return game, Kelly and JR DB Cassius Johnson have taken the most reps, with respectable (6.8 YPPR and 28.82 YPKOR) results.

Keys to the Game:

 1. Establish (and stop) the Run: In RPI's four losses this season, they gave up 182, 88, 147, and 171 rushing yards, while being held to 55, 85, 43 and 22. Making the game one dimensional will help Hobart, who has the best pass defense in the LL, force the Engineers to be one dimensional. 

2. Turnovers - See above. Hobart can take the Engineers out of this game early on if they can pressure Kazanowsky and force him into making more mistakes. RPI's OL has allowed the most sacks in the LL this season (19), so the Statesmen's pass rush should do well. To their credit, RPI leads the LL in passing YPG with 213.7, but they've thrown more INTs than passing TDs so far this season.

3. Big Play Faraday - The Statesmen defense will need to keep an eye on WR/SB Hayden Faraday. He goes into motion a lot and has gotten large gains because of his speed. He leads the LL in receiving YPG with 66.7, which isn't a lot, but his 12.62 YPR average shows you that he is basically good for a first down every time he catches the football and with a long of 64 yards, can beat you deep if you're not ready.

Prediction:

Hobart has one of the best defenses in the nation, and that will be on display again at the ECAV Saturday. I think the Statesmen can pitch another shutout potentially, but RPI hasn't been shutout since Week 1 and is averaging 22.57 PPG on offense. I think the Engineers may be able to get a TD at home, but not more than one. I'll take the Statesmen to win, 27-6 (which is basically our average points scored and allowed per game after 8 weeks of play). 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Statesmen Shutout Union for First Time Since '75, 27-0

Ok, so I almost jinxed it. 

I was asked by a former Hobart parent over text the last time the Statesmen shutout the Dutchmen / Garnet Chargers and I looked it up. You had to go back 49 years, to 1975, when Hobart shutout Union, 21-0. I passed that information along to the broadcast booth with about 3:30 remaining. In retrospect, maybe I shouldn't have. 

Fortunately for me, FY DB Simon Skyler bailed me out with an INT of Union JR QB Patch Flanagan from the Statesmen nine-yard line with just over two minutes left. Speaking of FY DBs, it's great to see another Hobart player in #36 making big plays out there. Drew Walsh '23 had a nice career in 36 for Hobart, and now that jersey has been passed on to FY DB Ryan Van Tassell who also had an INT (his third of the season) in Saturday's 27-0 win.

With the win Hobart improves to 7-1 overall and 4-0 in the Liberty League. You can read up on this game from the HWSAthletics.com website here. 

I'll have more on the upcoming RPI game later this week. The Engineers (3-4, 1-2) were idle in Week 8, so they've had an extra week to prepare for this big conference matchup.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 8 - Union Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will have a second homecoming of sorts, in more ways than one, this Saturday against long-time Liberty League rival, Union College. The Union (f/k/a the Dutchmen and now the) "Garnet Chargers" are heading to Geneva with a familiar face at the helm, former Hobart QB coach and OC, Jon Drach. 

Coach Drach's first year has been a rough one, with Union coming into the game (the 107th meeting of the series, which the Dutchmen lead 54-50-2) with a 2-4, 1-1 overall record. Last season, Hobart (6-1, 3-0) was soundly beaten by the Dutch Chargers, 27-10. 

This year has these teams on two different trajectories, but Hobart can't afford to take this game for granted. Nothing would make the Union's season than to take down the Statesmen. 

Scouting the Garnet Chargers

In spite of their struggles in the win-loss column, Union is a balanced team on offense. They average nearly identical rushing and passing YPG numbers - 162.8 and 157.5 - but have scored most of their points via the pass - 11 pass TDs vs. 5 rush TDs.

They are led by JR QB Patch Flanagan (one of the best names in the nation), who I got to see play in person back in Week 1. In that game he struggled with pass efficiency but showed off his speed. He's an extremely quick runner who can move outside of the pocket. Flanagan has gone 83-180 passing for 936 yards and 11 TDs. He's added 397 rushing yards (leading the team) with three rush TDs.

Those numbers have eaten into the production of what made the Dutchmen a playoff team last year, namely the one-two punch of SR RBs Michael Fiore and Jonathan Anderson. These playmakers are averaging less than 60 YPG rushing and only have one rushing TD between the two of them this season.

Flanagan's favorite target has been SR WR Robbie Tolbert who leads Union with 18 catches for 195 yards and four receiving TDs. Not far behind him is JR WR Gil Rivera who's caught 14 passes for 191 yards and one TD.

Defensively the Dutch Chargers are led by SR LB Cole DaSilva with 63 total tackles, including six TFL. The Hobart OL will need to keep SR DL Ethan VanderBrink in check. He leads Union with an impressive 10.5 TFL and 6.5 sack total.

On special teams, the Dutchmen have used several players. SO PK Hayden Hall handles punting duties, averaging a net 39.71 YPP. FY PK Francisco Pileggi has the most FG attempts, going 4-6 on the season with a long of 37 yards. JR PK Ryan Mulderig handles KOs, averaging 55.4 YPKO. In the return game, Union has only fielded one punt, for zero yards, which is odd. SO WR Mike DiNardo has fielded the most KOs (16), averaging 20.31 YPKOR.

Keys to the Game:

1. Win the LOS - last season I remember seeing a Union OL pick up and slam one of Hobart's undersized DL on a 56-yard TD pass play at the end of the third quarter. It was pretty embarrassing and honestly, the Dutchmen dominated the LOS of that game all day. This season, the Statesmen defense is stronger, currently ranked third in the nation in scoring defense. This time the slamming may go the other direction. Offensively Hobart should pound the ball on the ground and look for deep pass plays when they can. The Dutchmen allow 156 YPG rushing and a 4.2 YPR average, giving up 10 rushing TDs over the past six games. I saw Utica's larger OL, not unlike Hobart's, control the LOS in Week 1. The Statesmen need to follow that same script Saturday. 

2. Home Sweet Home - The Statesmen have won six in a row at home vs. Union. Hobart is 0-4 in their last four tries in Schenectady, so there is something to home field advantage in this series.  A win Saturday would make the Statesmen's home record this season 4-0.

3. Stay Levelheaded - This game is always a chippy one, so Hobart needs to play hard, but smart, and not get drawn into personal foul or other penalties. The Statesmen are averaging almost -50 YPG in penalties, but so is Union. Needless to say, Hobart can't give the Dutchmen extended drives or points due to bone-headed penalties.

Prediction:

The Statesmen haven't allowed a TD since the second quarter of Week 5 against Ithaca. While I do think the Union offense is strong enough to put up some points here, I do believe that this year, Hobart is the much stronger overall team. I'll think the Statesmen will run the ball on offense and force Flanagan into some tough situations that'll lead to turnovers on defense. I'll take Hobart to win it, 31-10.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart! 

Statesmen Win Fifth Straight, Smothering the Saints, 39-3

The Hobart College Statesmen won their fifth straight game, and 13th in a row, against Liberty League conference foes, Saint Lawrence, 39-3. It was another dominating performance by the Statesmen defense who have not allowed a TD since the second quarter of Week 5, against Ithaca. 

Hobart (6-1, 3-0) welcomed back starting SR QB Johnny Columbi from injury and he had a big game, going 14-22 passing (63.6%) for 226 yards and two passing TDs. JR WR Ahmad Crowell and FY WR Johnny Harding caught the TD passes. 

SR PK Tobias Wefering added 14 points, going 2-3 on PATs and a perfect 4-4 on FGs (a new Hobart record for FGM in a single game), including a long of 41 yards. SO RB EJ Taylor rushed 17 times for 79 yards and a TD. 

The Hobart defense stifled the Saints (2-4, 1-2), holding Saint Lawrence to only 33 rushing yards on 24 attempts (1.4 YPR average). The Statesmen also picked off Saints QBs twice with SR DB Chris Ntumba and FY DB Corey Rock with one INT each. 

Leading the Hobart defense was SR OLB Jamien Bliss with seven tackles, including a TFL and a sack. FY LB Ian Harder ended the scoring, scooping up a fumble in the Saints red zone with 6:30 remaining in the game. 

Up next for the Statesmen is a return home to the Boz to take on LL rival, Union College. I'll have more on that game early next week.

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 7 - Saint Lawrence Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will look to extend their current winning streak to five games with a win Saturday up at Saint Lawrence University. The Saints (2-3, 1-1) are coming off a tough, 34-10, road loss at RPI from Week 6.

Hobart (5-1, 2-0) has dominated this series of late, winning the last 12 in a row and 30 out of the last 31 matchups, dating back to the 1992 season. Due to this long run, the Statesmen lead the all-time series, over Saint Lawrence, 56-26-2, making Saturday the 85th game in this series that dates all the way back to 1901.

Scouting the Saints

Saint Lawrence is passing team, having thrown the ball 56.7% of their offensive play calls. They average over 200 YPG passing, compared to only 42.8 YPG rushing. Defensively the Saints struggle to stop the run, allowing opponents to 173.2 YPG rushing and 11 of the 17 TDs they've surrendered this year have been on the ground. 

Leading the Saint Lawrence offense is SR QB Daniel Lawther. Hobart fans may remember him when he had to come into the 2021 game at the Boz after Tyler Grochot was basically knocked out by OLB Emmett Forde '22. This season Lawther has gone 75-116 passing for 719 yards and four TDs with three INTs.

His main target has been SR TE Oskar Baldwin (pictured above). Baldwin has hauled in 26 catches for 338 yards and four TDs. SR RB Will Lederman is often deployed like Rayshawn Boswell '23 was, in the wildcat, for goal-to-go situations. While he's only rushed 66 times for 233 yards (under 47 YPG), he's managed to score all five of the Saints rushing TDs this season. 

Defensively Saint Lawrence is led by a pair of strong linebackers in SO LB Savino Moreli and JR LB Ryan Suroff. They have tallied a total of 38 and 36 tackles, respectively. Suroff leads the team with 7 TFL and Moreli is second with 4.5 TFL. 

JR PK Clayton Fogler has been a perfect 5-5 on FGs this season with a long of 38, which was the OT game winner over Union in Week 5. He is also a nearly perfect, 9-10 on PATs. Fogler also handles KOs, where he averages 54.3 YPKO. Punting duties were mostly handled by JR WR Jack O'Brien, but it appears like FY PK Sam Arbaugh took over during the RPI game and has averaged 35 YPP net average with two dropped inside the opponents 20-yard line.

The Saints return game has been relatively modest, averaging only four yards on punts and approximately 16 yards on KORs.

Keys to the Game:

1. RTB (Run the Ball):  There's no denying this matchup plays to Hobart's strengths. The Statesmen average 145 YPG rushing and should be able to surpass that amount against the Saint Lawrence defense. 

2. Turnovers: The Saints have struggled to protect the football, currently having a -7 TOM. I would expect the Hobart defense to force at least one or two more turnovers Saturday, helping the Statesmen offense build a (hopefully) insurmountable lead.

3. Bring it On Home: This will be the last long road trip of the 2024, at least in the regular season. The Statesmen would like to return to the Boz on a five-game win streak when they host long-time conference rivals (and struggling) Union College (1-4, 0-1) in Week 8.

Prediction:

I think a heavy run game, some defensive plays and a solid performance all-around will help Hobart to a 35-7-win Saturday. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!