Looking Forward in Reverse

This will be it for 2013.  Thanks to Sean McGlynn '01 for helping me with this write up.

With the Division III Final Four upon us it seems like as good a time as any to do a recap of the 2013 Hobart College Football season.  It’s been 10 calendar years and 11 seasons since a Liberty League team made it to the Final Four.  RPI did it in 2003 (making an incredible playoff run after losing to the Statesmen in the regular season finale, 43-25) but since then no other team, save for Hobart in 2012 advanced past the second round of the NCAA playoffs.

I believe this is helpful context in evaluating what some saw as a disappointing end the 2013 Hobart campaign.  While it was exciting to see the LL have a very successful (15-6) run in their out-of-conference games, it was apparent late in the season that the LL wasn't as strong as the initial OOC results.  Although second place SLU finished with a solid 7-3, 5-2 season, they never really challenged Hobart in their 37-7 loss in Geneva. Hobart’s usual top rivals RPI and Union also struggled this year, finishing 5-5 and 3-7 overall, respectively.  Even Springfield, picked by the LL Coaches to finish second in the league (D3football.com picked them to finish 9-1 in their preseason Kickoff preview) struggled in the LL, going 3-3 (they never got to play USMMA) while winning all their OOC games against NEFC and ECFC teams.

In fact if there was one thing that was a constant in 2013 was that you could count on the Statesmen to be winning by 21 points (or more) in the fourth quarter of all of their games this regular season, so they never really got tested until late November.  Hobart easily beat Dickinson in Week 1, then had a bye week before taking on Utica.  The final score, 34-21, is a bit deceiving.  Hobart led 21-7 at halftime and 34-13 half way through the fourth quarter.  The Statesmen offense didn't really come into its own until the WPI game.  After scoring 41 points that day, the Hobart “O” never scored less than 35 points the rest of the regular season, cracking 40+ points four times.

Big conference showdowns this season for Hobart also failed to materialize. First it was Springfield losing two straight before playing the Statesmen.  Then it was Saint Lawrence losing to the Pride 21-20 the week before playing Hobart to take some steam out of that potential undefeated LL showdown.  Union was down and that game wasn't competitive.  Then UofR committed five turnovers in a 31-21 loss to WPI the week before what would have been a winner takes all LL Championship game for Hobart and Rochester.

The Statesmen’s (lack of a tough) schedule ultimately became the sore spot after a slow and mistake filled start against Fisher in the second round of the playoffs.  The fact they allegedly “ducked” Wesley in 2011 and reportedly passed on other elite teams offers to play them made a few folks roll their eyes when the 2014 schedule came out.

Still, the old “you can only play who’s on your schedule” is true, and Hobart’s perfect 19-0 regular season and 22-2 overall record these past two years is certainly nothing to look down on.  Some people seem to forget that this year’s SR class started their careers on a 5-4 team before making this amazing run. While the Top 10 ranking they held this year may have been more to do with 2012’s team, the 2013 version certainly played like a top team in 10 games this year.  Unfortunately they didn't on the biggest stage and that loss will likely push Hobart into the 14-15 range (or lower) when the 2014 rankings come out.

What I think most critics “ding” the Statesmen’s schedule on is the lack of really strong OOC games.  While Dickinson vs. Hobart has been a competitive series overall (the Statesmen lead it 12-10-1), it has not been competitive in the last four seasons. Since losing to the Red Devils 26-3 in 2009, Hobart has outscored Dickinson 132-23 in their last four games.  The Red Devils haven’t won more the four games in a season during this same stretch.

Curry and Endicott of the NEFC join the slate in 2014.  Curry did have some strong teams back in 2006-08, but have dropped off to being around a .500 ball club in a conference that has only two NCAA wins (one being the Colonel’s 2008 26-21 Round 1 upset of Ithaca) in its history.

The Gulls have been on the rise winning 8-10 games a season since 2010, but so far haven’t been able to lock up a NCAA bid until this season, but they were shut down and out, 24-0, in Round 1 by Rowan.  That track record, plus the fact that fans have noticed how teams like Fisher have gone out of their way to go up against elite teams like Mount Union in their OOC scheduling, has brought Hobart some boo birds from the national media and other regional fan bases that expect (if not demand) the Statesmen “up their game.”  Of course what these fans forget is that scheduling football games isn't as simple as finding a mutual open date. There are institutional, financial, alumni and other considerations that factor in.

Personally I think the schedule wouldn't be as much of an issue if Dickinson hadn't dropped off like they have. Endicott is a good team and will provide a tough test.  The problem is a win over the Gulls doesn't really do much for Hobart and a loss would set off alarms (with fans anyway).  Union saw this first hand when they lost to Salve a couple of years ago, and this season, when they lost to WNEC.  What is also an issue (and should probably get more “coverage” than the OOC scheduling complaints), is that the other LL teams need to improve too.  SLU had a good year, but still lost two games they probably could / should have won.  RPI, Union, Springfield and UofR performed below expectations.  USMMA started off hot, but the government shutdown took the wind out of their sails and the Mariners were never the same after the forced three game hiatus. Given next year’s lineup and the state of the LL, the Statesmen will have a very good shot at another 10-0 regular season next fall.

Speaking of next fall, here’s a quick positional look at 2014 based on who could be coming back.  We’ll start with the offense first:

QB:  The Statesmen should have all five signal callers back in camp for another season with Patrick Conlan and Kyle Bayly leading the way.  Conlan finished the season with decent numbers going 102 of 191 (53.4% completion rate) for 1,440 yards with 16 passing TDs compared to seven interceptions (two of which came in the NCAA game vs. SJFC). Although 1,440 yards is the lowest in total passing yardage for a Hobart starting QB in over a decade, keep in mind that this year’s team ran the ball 471 out of 684 plays (or 69% of time).  I was hoping Conlan would get more confident over the season, and he definitely had his moments.  He showed he has the arm strength, but his decision making during the Fisher game was not what you’d expect for a player with 10 starts under his belt. To be fair a 30 mph wind will make the ball go places you don’t intend (like to opposing defenders). Conlan's completion percentage would also have been several points higher if his receivers didn't have so many drops, especially earlier in the season.  While time will tell, I do see passing attempts and yardage increasing in 2014 given the graduation of Steven Webb.  Webb had 1,443 of Hobart’s 2,620 total rushing yards (55%) and he scored a record 20 of the Statesmen’s 31 rushing TDs (64.5%).  Also, the Statesmen return of pretty much the entire receiving corps. Speaking of the WRs…

WR:  This position will need to step up in 2014 but the Statesmen are lucky that a literal 1-2-3 of Troy Robinson (team high 366 receiving yards, four TDs), John Fasano (358 receiving yards and two TDs) and Elvin Souffrant (347 receiving yards and four TDs) should all be back. Beyond the top three, I think we could see a more from Cooper Merrill and Sean Cunningham.  Also I wouldn't be surprised to see a few others get a chance as Hobart could benefit from a 6’2” – 6’3” target, and there are some rising SOs on the roster that fit that mold.

RB:  Connor Hartigan will be coming back from injury for the second time in his Hobart career.  He could be an excellent starter, but whether he can make it through an entire season without getting sidelined due to injury remains to be seen.  He has excellent speed and averaged 5.8 YPC.  His 89 yard run against Springfield was the longest run from scrimmage for any Statesman in 2013.  Also returning is Brad Burns who played in 10 games this season, gaining 230 yards and scoring two TDs. Burns is a stocky ball carrier who's probably always good for 3-4 yards a carry, but break away speed wasn't something we got to see in 2013. If that's the case we could see Justin Burke and/or Sean Bright getting more time depending on how this position develops over 2014.

FB:  This position is pretty much all set with Dominique Ellis and Christopher Holoman back.  I could see Ellis getting 10+ carries a game next year given his experience and the fact that most of the other RBs are still learning the college game.  In 2013 Ellis ran for 309 yards on 50 carries (6.2 YPC average), scoring four TDs.

OL:  Hobart will lose three starters, but bring back Ali Marpet and DeAndre' Smith.   Fortunately the Statesmen have several rising SO and JR players who gained valuable time this season and should be ready to compete for starting roles.

TE:  All of this season’s TEs should be back.  Mike Berkowitz was less of a passing target than I thought he'd be in 2013 only hauling in 10 catches this season.  Still, six of those catches were for TDs which led the team. All the Hobart TEs have tantalizing size and speed but I can see this position remaining one that stays in primarily for blocking purposes, especially if Coach DeWall decides he wants to spread the field and “air it out” to the Hobart WRs more in 2014.

Now for the defense:

DT:  Troy Johnson and Tucker Gumkowski had really nice years and if they improve will truly be dominant in the middle in 2014.  While it’s probably safe to pencil these guys in as starters, there could be some tough competition in camp for playing time on the DL.  Jake Russell rotated in a bit this season and I’d like to see Zackary Robak see the field given his size (300 lbs).

DE:  By far the Statesmen’s best and deepest position on the field with Tyre Coleman and Mark Guarino-Hyde. With about six other returning players all also in consideration and competing for playing time, Hobart has backups here that could probably start on most every other LL team and perhaps a good chunk of the East Region.

OLB:  The graduation of Devin Worthington is a big loss, but Nolan Toran has quietly become a star in his own right and could really have a breakthrough season in 2014. Jacob Stanley or Matt McGriff will compete for a starting nod and Marcus Jemison could start at Rover/SS or DB.  While Hobart will lose some depth here, if the top three or four players are healthy, the Statesmen will be in great shape.  You can also pretty much guarantee the coaching staff can recruit quality FY at these positions, so I am not very concerned about this squad.

ILB:  Also a source of strength, and has been on an annual basis for quite some time.  Trayvon Toney is a star waiting to happen and Jacob Price brings a lot of experience and leadership to the table. Zach Thornton and Mark Marino will compete for time as well.  Given the size and strength of this and the DL, teams will continue to struggle to run in the middle of the field given the front four and these ILBs. Depth is a slight concern here, but you could move a 215-225 lbs DE over potentially and/or back fill with incoming FY players.

DB:  Fajri Jackson earned D3football East Region and LL first team honors but was also readily picked on by opposing QBs with bigger receivers (see UofR and Fisher). Gabriel Smith (also a D3FB 1st team All Region and LL player on ST) returns and could compete for Connor Garrett’s former job.  It will be interesting to see if Jemison, who backed up Jackson in 2012, starts in one of those slots. At FS, you can pencil in Michael Harper who backed up Jolyon Davis all season and made some good plays, including an interception in the first round of the playoffs against Gallaudet.  Harper has good size and attended a top HS program (Bergen Catholic in NJ) and should be ready. Austin Gallegos is the only other returning FS so depth here could be a concern and will probably be addressed via roster moves and/or incoming FY recruits.

Finally, here’s a quick look at special teams:

Hobart brought in two kickers in 2013 and it was Sean Kirsche who emerged as the starter, eventually earning first team LL awards.  The Statesmen will have to find another punter with the graduation of Yosh Karbowniczak.  Elvin Souffrant punted in the 2012 season with good results.  Kirsche attempted four punts this season with mixed results (26.75 net average).

Overall forecast for 2014 is looking good:

I see an experienced offense coming back, but replacing Hobart’s best RB (arguably ever) will be tough. The Statesmen will need to be more of a passing team and Ellis, Hartigan and a few others will need to help keep Hobart’s offense more balanced than it was in 2013. QB and WR play will have to improve and pass blocking by a restocked OL will be at premium.  The defense should be as solid as the past few years with the middle of the field being stronger than the edge.  That said I don’t think we've ever had two DE’s like Coleman and Guarino-Hyde which is a major advantage.  ILBs and DT’s will be very strong and Toran will be strong as well.  The question marks are who fills in the other OLB and secondary openings due to graduation of guys like Worthington and Garrett?

Recruiting wise I expect Hobart to look to add depth at ILB, OLB and FS/DB while looking for the next Webb and Worthington type of players. While I doubt the Statesmen would recruit a punter, I suspect either current or incoming players will be looked at to bolster this important field position and ST role. I’ll see what I can dig up during the off-season on incoming recruits and post it to the site over the spring and into the summer months.

Thanks for reading the blog this year, Happy Holidays, New Year and go ‘Bart!

Endicott and Curry added to 2014 Slate

The Hobart Statesmen have completed their 2014 schedule and it is as follows:

9/6 Dickinson
9/13 @ Endicott
9/20 @ Curry
9/27 USMMA
10/4 @ WPI
10/11 Springfield
Bye week
10/25 @ RPI
11/1 Union
11/8 @ SLU
11/15 UofR

Neither Dickinson nor Curry have been that competitive of late, but have strong traditions.  Endicott is interesting opponent in that they have won 8-10 games the past several seasons.  In 2013 they came up short against eventual NEFC Champion Framingham State who almost beat Ithaca at home in the first round of the NCAA playoffs.

One thing is for sure, MA area and New England alumni will see a lot of the Statesmen in 2014.

Hobart Flattened by Fisher, 27-6

The eighth ranked Hobart Statesmen hosted a familiar foe Saturday when they took on the Saint John Fisher College Cardinals in a second round NCAA playoff game.  Although Hobart was the home team and higher seed, the Cardinals were far from an underdog.  The Statesmen got off to an auspicious start when JR FB Dominique Ellis fumbled the ball on the opening series of the game.

The turnover set up Fisher near midfield but a personal foul penalty on JR OL Ali Marpet improved the Cardinals field position.  With only 36 yards to go, Fisher quickly found the end zone and a three yard Cody Miller touchdown got the visitors on the board 7-0 just over five minutes into the game.

Hobart would add fuel to the fire after a nine yard SR / P Yosh Karbowniczak punt was fielded by Fisher at the Statesmen 15 yard line.  Hobart would dodge the bullet however as the defense made a stand and forced a 33 yard Brendan Carey field goal.  The kick was wide left and the Statesmen would try and capitalize on the second chance.  JR QB Patrick Conlan led the team down the field, eventually driving to the Fisher 18 yard line.  The Cardinals defense stiffened and Hobart was unable to convert on fourth and eight, although Conlan could have gained the first down if he held onto the ball, he opted for a shovel pass to Karbowniczak but he wasn't able to collect the pass and the Statesmen turned the ball over on downs.

Fisher’s more sure handed receivers would take charge, but it really was a holding penalty on SR CB Connor Garrett that kept the Cardinals in business on the ensuing drive.  SR QB Tyler Fenti would take advantage of the call and find SR WR Kevin Francis for 37 yards to get into the Hobart red zone.  Two plays later, Fenti connected with JR WR Nathan Nigolian for 17 yards and a second Fisher TD.  The Carey point after was good and with 7:31 to go in the first half, the Cardinals had a 14-0 lead.

The Statesmen attempted a few trick plays with SO WR Connor Merrill at quarterback but to no avail. At the half Fisher continued their 14-0 advantage and would receive the kickoff in the second half.  The Cardinals Brandon Fuentes would take the kick 51 yards setting up Fisher with yet another short field. Although the Hobart defense held, Carey came away with a 27 yard field goal and the Cardinals lead was up to 17-0 only three and a half minutes into the third quarter.

Hobart would attempt to rally but once again made a mistake when Conlan was intercepted by FS Mike Guinta.  On the very next play Fenti would effectively ice the game on a 32 yard TD pass to Francis.

Although Hobart would avoid the shutout due to a four yard JR TE Mike Berkowitz receiving touchdown, the Statesmen were otherwise too little, too late Saturday and fell by a score of 27-6.  Fenti led the Cardinals with 244 passing yards and two touchdowns.  Defensively Fisher dominated the Statesmen, holding Hobart to 241 total yards and six of 14 on third down.  The Cardinals’ Ryan Seymour led the Fisher defense with nine tackles.  The Statesmen defense was led by SR LB Cory Davis with a game high 10 stops.  On offense Hobart was led by Conlan with 120 passing and 27 rushing yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.

The loss drops Hobart to 10-1 on the season and broke a 12 game home field winning streak by the Statesmen at Boswell Field.  The win improves Fisher to 10-2 overall and advanced them into the National Quarterfinals for the second time in three years.  The Cardinals, the final remaining East Region team in the tournament, will face off against third ranked University of Mary-Hardin Baylor next Saturday in Belton, Texas.

We'll discuss yesterday's game tonight at 7:30 PM on "In The HuddLLe" www.inthehuddlle.com.  I'll also write up a season retrospective later this week.