Today officially marks that we are 100 days away from when the Hobart College Statesmen kickoff their 126th season of college football. As we know, Team 126 has some high expectations in what's become one of the most competitive conferences in the East Region.
While the Statesmen faithful are very bullish on this season's prospects, some prognosticators are a little skeptical of Hobart's chances. One of these is a former D3FB player (Wabash College), HSFB coach and structural engineer Logan Hansen.
Hansen, who's based in Iowa and occasionally collaborates with D3football.com, has developed an interesting ranking and predictive model over the last couple of years using historical data and regression analysis to predict future results.
In the current model, Hobart is ranked 48th out of 237 teams, given the NESCAC and a couple of other teams are not included because of their inability / lack of participation in OOC games and the NCAA playoffs. According to the stats, the Statesmen are predicted to finish the 2019 season with a 6-4, 4-2 record (technically a 6.4-3.6 record, which basically allows the possibility of the Statesmen winning a close one and ending up 7-3 with a certain level of probability), with at least two of those losses coming in LL play. While being considered in the Top 20% of all D3FB teams and a winning season is certainly not a bad thing, I think most Hobart fans would view a 6-4 finish, even with one of the toughest schedules in the East Region, as disappointing.
Looking more closely, you can infer that these are the predicted results for Hobart:
Statesmen Opponent (Hansen Ranking):
vs. Brockport (17) L
vs. SUNY-M (94) W
vs. Rowan (124) W
vs. Montclair St. (70) model leans towards a W for Hobart
vs. Union (52) leans towards a L for Hobart (more on this below)
vs. RPI (37) L
vs. IC (39) L
vs. SLU (109) W
vs. Buff St (148) W
vs. UofR (199) W
What's interesting about the above is that the model values Union higher than Montclair State, the latter of which will be returning 18 starters from last year's 8-2 campaign in the NJAC (one of those losses being a 24-17 decision to Frostburg State which has left the conference and is now a D2 program) - which in my opinion, is the strongest East Region conference overall.
To be fair, the model will be updated with this type of returning player data, including the fact Hobart will be returning a lot of starters as well, later this summer. I'd recommend checking back in August to see how these ratings and predictions change based on this information (which will be included in the annual D3football.com "Kickoff 2019" online magazine).
Given the prediction for Union to end up 4-2 in the LL, you can also infer that the model sees a number of ways LL teams will "beat each other up" (neither Ithaca nor RPI are predicted to be undefeated in the LL either) and/or the Hobart-Union game being the one that will decide whether Hobart or Union ends up 7-3 or 6-4, basically. The model also has Montclair getting the majority (2.5) of it's predicted 3.5 losses from NJAC play, insinuating that the Red Hawks could win all of their three OCC games (or potentially lose to Hobart).
While there are certain flaws to the model, it does provide some interesting musings and conversation points in the slow off-season, summer days.
Let the countdown to kickoff officially begin! I'll have some other updates throughout the summer months as we get closer to preseason camp (and creep towards and eventually pass having 250K views of this blog site - thank you!).
Thanks again for reading and go 'Bart!
Thursday, May 30, 2019
Wednesday, May 1, 2019
2019 Recruiting Recap
Welcome to May!
Only 130 days until the Week 1 regular season home opener against Brockport.🕔
The Class of 2023 announcements by HC Kevin DeWall '00 wrapped up last week giving us some time to get to know the newest Statesmen on the team. While it's possible one or two players may "melt" (an admissions term for someone who changes their minds last minute, even after putting down a deposit) out or in (getting in off the wait list for example), we can expect most, if not all, of these student athletes heading to Hobart in the fall.
Given it's a relatively smaller recruiting class than we've seen in recent years, I thought it might be interesting to break it down and "analyze it". I'll couch this by saying this really isn't analysis, but my opinion based on watching a little film, knowledge of certain HS programs and reviewing basic statistics. Ultimately it's up to the coaches to find out who can play and mold these kids to their best potential. Injuries can also come into play - see FY LB CJ Calero who looked like an absolute stud coming out of HS but unfortunately had a non-contact ACL tear in the preseason that preempted what might have been an outstanding rookie campaign. Hopefully we'll have a chance to see him and what he can contribute in 2019, along with some of these other players below.
At a high level, this is pretty diverse class from a geographic perspective:
NY - 10
CT, MA & NJ - 12 (4 each)
FL & VA - 4 (2 each)
GA, NH & TX - 3 (1 each)
Here's a breakdown by position (another caveat - these could change during camp as it's not unusual to see a DB become a WR or vice versa, for example, so keep that in mind as far as position designation goes), starting with the defense (13):
Defensive Line (DL) - 5
Gunn, Norris, O'Grady, Powers, and Williams
Last season the DL was not a strength of the team until later in the season. Hobart's rushing D finished fourth in the conference allowing over 130 YPG and allowed the third most rushing TDs with 13 (which is actually not bad, but also not as good as Ithaca and Union who only allowed five). They also had the second worst sack total in the LL, tallying 18 over nine games (basically two per game), so hopefully that will improve in 2019.
Norris and Powers appear to be the strongest in this group, but time will tell. A lot can happen during preseason camp and how players look "on paper" and in HS highlight film doesn't always transfer to the college game.
Linebacker (LB) - 3
Duckett, Hanley, and Visconti
LB is a key position group given Hobart's traditional 4x4 scheme (although they did go away from that last season and it's looking like we can expect to see more of a base 3x4 / package philosophy going forward). All three of these players come from strong HS programs, Hanley in particular. While he's more of an OLB, I could see Duckett and Visconti getting looks at ILB.
Secondary (FS/SS/CB) - 5
Barnosky, Diallo, Hansen, Harps-Zhu, and Inwood
Like the DL, the DBs struggled early in the season and Hobart ended the 2018 campaign with a second to worst 247.6 YPG allowed and a LL high 21 passing TDs completed against them. Although there are some bright spots in JR CB Jared Leake, JR FS Cal Sullivan, and SO FS Jay McCoy, the Hobart secondary needs to play better against what's become a very pass heavy LL.
From this group I like the looks of Diallo and "JHZ" as cover corners, while Hansen is a pro-typical strong safety. Inwood played CB and S so I'm sure he'll be given looks in both spots. Barnosky is more of "center fielder" / traditional FS based on what I saw. Another thing I like about this group of recruits is that most are over 6'-6'1" tall. No more "itty bitty committee" like Coach Cragg used to joke around about a decade or so ago.
Now let's take a look at the offense (15):
The Hobart offense finished first in most LL statistical categories and return a good bulk (literally and figuratively) of starters from last season. That said, these recruits are about building depth across every position which I know is a priority of Coach DeWall's.
Offensive Line (OL) - 6
Cecere, Cremers, Fowler, Frank, Trowbridge, and Wright
The OL is the number one priority and it looks like the Statesmen added some nice players to build out depth in this critical unit. Cremers was once a UMass commit so in theory he could be the best of the lot, and while some of this group is undersized (for now), players like Wright (6'3" 270) aren't far off from what the Statesmen like to see on the OL. With a young group of starters in spring camp, this recruiting class should help in building out more depth in the OL which is a key element of a DeWall coached team.
Tight End (TE) - 1
Pierce
Most FY players don't see a lot of action, but Pierce could be an exception given his size (6'2" 245 lbs) and good hands. The Statesmen could benefit from a strong, blocking TE for certain formations, and Pierce fits the bill, at least on paper.
Running Back (RB) - 2
Denham and Walsh
Not a big need, but both of these runners have good size and speed. With only five to six RBs on the roster (sounds like the FB role is going away so players like JR FB Shane White will play RB going forward) these players add depth to this position.
Wide Receiver (WR) - 3
Bartosic, Schicke and Surra
The Statesmen are loaded at WR for 2019, but will graduate off a lot of talent after this season. Bartosic is a smaller guy (5'11" 170), but is very athletic. Schicke and Surra are both big targets (6'5" and 6'3") which can create match up problems for opposing defenses.
Quarterback (QB) - 3
Roberts, Robles and Pelletier
Each one of these QBs are fairly pro-typical in that they are tall (Roberts is 6'1" while Robles and Pelletier are both listed at 6'4") with strong arms. Which player comes out of this group as a potential future starter will depend on a number of factors. Hobart only has two QBs on the roster, so this is a plan for the future also.
Special Teams (ST) - 1
Amaral
I have to say I was a little surprised by this add given JR PK Kyle Hackett is set to rewrite the Hobart record book and has two more years of eligibility. He also has an understudy in SO PK Rob DiGregorio. Still, competition and depth is always a good thing, and this could be a move to alleviate the punting duties taken on by SR WR John DelliSanti after the Brockport game last season. To his credit however, Hobart ended up leading the LL in net punts, so maybe that won't change in 2019 and this is more of a longer term play for the kicking game.
That gets you to 29 and brings the overall roster count to 97, which is pretty typical for a D3FB squad.
That wraps up all the news on the Class of 2023. I will try and get to a recap of the Block H awards dinner, which occurred on Monday night, April 29th, later this week.
Thanks for stopping by the blog and go 'Bart!
Only 130 days until the Week 1 regular season home opener against Brockport.🕔
The Class of 2023 announcements by HC Kevin DeWall '00 wrapped up last week giving us some time to get to know the newest Statesmen on the team. While it's possible one or two players may "melt" (an admissions term for someone who changes their minds last minute, even after putting down a deposit) out or in (getting in off the wait list for example), we can expect most, if not all, of these student athletes heading to Hobart in the fall.
Given it's a relatively smaller recruiting class than we've seen in recent years, I thought it might be interesting to break it down and "analyze it". I'll couch this by saying this really isn't analysis, but my opinion based on watching a little film, knowledge of certain HS programs and reviewing basic statistics. Ultimately it's up to the coaches to find out who can play and mold these kids to their best potential. Injuries can also come into play - see FY LB CJ Calero who looked like an absolute stud coming out of HS but unfortunately had a non-contact ACL tear in the preseason that preempted what might have been an outstanding rookie campaign. Hopefully we'll have a chance to see him and what he can contribute in 2019, along with some of these other players below.
At a high level, this is pretty diverse class from a geographic perspective:
NY - 10
CT, MA & NJ - 12 (4 each)
FL & VA - 4 (2 each)
GA, NH & TX - 3 (1 each)
Here's a breakdown by position (another caveat - these could change during camp as it's not unusual to see a DB become a WR or vice versa, for example, so keep that in mind as far as position designation goes), starting with the defense (13):
Defensive Line (DL) - 5
Gunn, Norris, O'Grady, Powers, and Williams
Last season the DL was not a strength of the team until later in the season. Hobart's rushing D finished fourth in the conference allowing over 130 YPG and allowed the third most rushing TDs with 13 (which is actually not bad, but also not as good as Ithaca and Union who only allowed five). They also had the second worst sack total in the LL, tallying 18 over nine games (basically two per game), so hopefully that will improve in 2019.
Norris and Powers appear to be the strongest in this group, but time will tell. A lot can happen during preseason camp and how players look "on paper" and in HS highlight film doesn't always transfer to the college game.
Linebacker (LB) - 3
Duckett, Hanley, and Visconti
LB is a key position group given Hobart's traditional 4x4 scheme (although they did go away from that last season and it's looking like we can expect to see more of a base 3x4 / package philosophy going forward). All three of these players come from strong HS programs, Hanley in particular. While he's more of an OLB, I could see Duckett and Visconti getting looks at ILB.
Secondary (FS/SS/CB) - 5
Barnosky, Diallo, Hansen, Harps-Zhu, and Inwood
Like the DL, the DBs struggled early in the season and Hobart ended the 2018 campaign with a second to worst 247.6 YPG allowed and a LL high 21 passing TDs completed against them. Although there are some bright spots in JR CB Jared Leake, JR FS Cal Sullivan, and SO FS Jay McCoy, the Hobart secondary needs to play better against what's become a very pass heavy LL.
From this group I like the looks of Diallo and "JHZ" as cover corners, while Hansen is a pro-typical strong safety. Inwood played CB and S so I'm sure he'll be given looks in both spots. Barnosky is more of "center fielder" / traditional FS based on what I saw. Another thing I like about this group of recruits is that most are over 6'-6'1" tall. No more "itty bitty committee" like Coach Cragg used to joke around about a decade or so ago.
Now let's take a look at the offense (15):
The Hobart offense finished first in most LL statistical categories and return a good bulk (literally and figuratively) of starters from last season. That said, these recruits are about building depth across every position which I know is a priority of Coach DeWall's.
Offensive Line (OL) - 6
Cecere, Cremers, Fowler, Frank, Trowbridge, and Wright
The OL is the number one priority and it looks like the Statesmen added some nice players to build out depth in this critical unit. Cremers was once a UMass commit so in theory he could be the best of the lot, and while some of this group is undersized (for now), players like Wright (6'3" 270) aren't far off from what the Statesmen like to see on the OL. With a young group of starters in spring camp, this recruiting class should help in building out more depth in the OL which is a key element of a DeWall coached team.
Tight End (TE) - 1
Pierce
Most FY players don't see a lot of action, but Pierce could be an exception given his size (6'2" 245 lbs) and good hands. The Statesmen could benefit from a strong, blocking TE for certain formations, and Pierce fits the bill, at least on paper.
Running Back (RB) - 2
Denham and Walsh
Not a big need, but both of these runners have good size and speed. With only five to six RBs on the roster (sounds like the FB role is going away so players like JR FB Shane White will play RB going forward) these players add depth to this position.
Wide Receiver (WR) - 3
Bartosic, Schicke and Surra
The Statesmen are loaded at WR for 2019, but will graduate off a lot of talent after this season. Bartosic is a smaller guy (5'11" 170), but is very athletic. Schicke and Surra are both big targets (6'5" and 6'3") which can create match up problems for opposing defenses.
Quarterback (QB) - 3
Roberts, Robles and Pelletier
Each one of these QBs are fairly pro-typical in that they are tall (Roberts is 6'1" while Robles and Pelletier are both listed at 6'4") with strong arms. Which player comes out of this group as a potential future starter will depend on a number of factors. Hobart only has two QBs on the roster, so this is a plan for the future also.
Special Teams (ST) - 1
Amaral
I have to say I was a little surprised by this add given JR PK Kyle Hackett is set to rewrite the Hobart record book and has two more years of eligibility. He also has an understudy in SO PK Rob DiGregorio. Still, competition and depth is always a good thing, and this could be a move to alleviate the punting duties taken on by SR WR John DelliSanti after the Brockport game last season. To his credit however, Hobart ended up leading the LL in net punts, so maybe that won't change in 2019 and this is more of a longer term play for the kicking game.
That gets you to 29 and brings the overall roster count to 97, which is pretty typical for a D3FB squad.
That wraps up all the news on the Class of 2023. I will try and get to a recap of the Block H awards dinner, which occurred on Monday night, April 29th, later this week.
Thanks for stopping by the blog and go 'Bart!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)