Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Hobart ranked 7th in the latest (and final pre-selection) NCAA rankings

Hobart dropped from second to seventh in the NCAA's eastern regional playoff rankings.  The list as it stands now is:

1 Delaware Valley 9-0 (can clinch the MAC title with a win vs. #5 Widener Saturday)
2 Salisbury 8-1 (already clinched the Empire 8 title)
3 Montclair State 8-1 (can clinch the NJAC title with a win over #4 Kean Saturday)
4 Kean 8-1 (see above)
5 Widener 8-1 (see above)
6 Western New England 9-1 (can clinch NEFC title with a win over Framingham State Saturday)
7 Hobart 6-1 (can clinch LL title with a win over Rochester Saturday)
8 Endicott 9-1 (has to hope for a Pool C bid)
9 St. John Fisher 7-2 ( has to win final game and hope for a Pool C bid)
10 SUNY-Maritime 7-2 (has to hope for an ECAC bid)

Norwich of the ECFC has clinched an automatic bid but is not ranked.  Mount Union is ranked #1 in the north region but it's highly doubtful a 10-0 Del Val team would merit a #1 seed so I expect to see the #2 (in the country) Raiders to be at the top of this bracket come Sunday for yet another season.

Hobart files for ECAC North Bracket

Now while I hope Hobart takes care of business Saturday at Rochester, in the event they fall short (they won't but, you know, just in the "worse case scenario"), the Statesmen would be eligible to play in one of the three (or four) ECAC "North Bowl Games" on the weekend of November 19th.

The current teams that have filed for a selection are as follows:

Team / Record

*Endicott 9-1 (could be considered for a NCAA Pool C bid but unlikely given SOS and other factors)
*Hobart 6-1 (goes to NCAA on LL Pool A bid if they beat Rochester Satuday)
Worcester State 8-2
Bridgewater State 7-2
Cortland State 7-2
St. John Fisher 7-2
Salve Regina 7-3
Alfred 6-3
Springfield 6-3
Mass-Maritime 5-4
Mount Ida 5-4
Utica 5-4
Curry 5-5
RPI 4-4

Of course I hope to be writing about the Hobart win at Rochester come Saturday and awaiting the seeding selection for the Statesmen in the NCAA tournament Sunday night (my guess is they get seeded fifth and travel to NJ play the winner of this weekend's Kean - Montclair game in the first round), but wanted you to know there is still post-season potential regardless of the NCAA.

Counting down to Saturday.  Go 'Bart!

Monday, November 7, 2011

Centennial Cup / Rochester Game Preview (aka LL title game, take 2)

The Hobart Statesmen (6-1, 4-1) will look to salvage clinching a share of the Liberty League championship and the accompanying NCAA tournament bid this Saturday when they face their oldest rival, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (4-4, 3-2). This game will be the 104th meeting of the two squads, and Hobart will look to regain the Centennial Cup which Rochester took home after defeating the Statesmen 36-35 in 2OT last season in Geneva. The all-time series is deadlocked at 48-48-7 and dates all the back to the 1892 season. For the Yellow Jackets this game will be on Senior Day and a win would give Rochester their first winning season since 2007.

The Yellow Jackets have had an up and down, injury-riddled season, but have won three of their last four games, including nearly defeating Alfred (6-3) on the last play of the game after being down 21-0 in the first half. The status of SR QB Braezen Subick (ranked third in the LL in passing efficiency and having thrown for 1298 yards, 10 TDs compared to seven INT) and SR RB Clarence Onyiriuka (fourth in the conference averaging 80.2 rush YPG and six rushing TDs) is still uncertain, but Rochester has found some strong contributors in their absence. SO QB Dean Kennedy has stepped in and played well against Alfred and Saint Lawrence (2-6, 1-4) passing for 371 yards and rushing for 102 yards with two passing TDs and three INTs. SR RB Chris Lebano and SR FB Joe Cicero have tallied 191 yards and two TDs in relief of Onyiriuka. Rochester’s top receiving threats are SO WR Garrett Kesel (330 yards and one TD), JR WR Thomas Hayes (482 yards and three TDs) and SR TE Thomas Norman (327 yards and two TDs but likely unavailable due to injury).

Defensively the Yellow Jackets are lead by SO OLB Tony Ortega who leads the LL in tackles per game (11.6 per game average). SO OLB Zach Cicero is fifth with 8.2 tackles per game. SR DE Chris Bickford has six sacks. Overall Rochester is the third ranked scoring defense (25.2 PPG allowed) and second in the LL against the run (118.8 YPG allowed).

On special teams the Jackets have one of the best kickers in the conference with JR Alex Antonucci going a perfect seven for seven (long of 42 yards) on FGs.

Keys to the game:

1. Better balance – Although Hobart will likely run into some challenges rushing the ball against the Yellow Jacket defense, I really felt like Coach DeWall’s over reliance on the pass (15 passes vs. five runs in the fourth quarter) cost the Statesmen the RPI game. Rochester has a strong outside rush, so look for Hobart to test the interior with dives and/or bubble screens to open up their offense. Last season both teams had nearly identical total yardage (328 for UofR compared to 322 for Hobart) and it was 2:1 passing to running which this game has the potential to be as well.

2. Third down and red zone conversions – Hobart led the LL in third down conversions, red zone offense and defense for most of the season (and still do save for red zone offense after Saturday) but only converted six of 13 third downs, went three of six in the red zone on offense and allowed TDs on all three of RPI’s red zone chances on Saturday. Rochester is the second ranked red zone offense, converting 85.7% of their chances (24 of 28) scoring 17 TDs and seven FGs. They also happen to be the second rated red zone defense, allowing 20 scores on 26 tries, including 15 TDs and stopping four of the nine FG attempts tried (which obviously was another huge factor in Hobart not being able to beat RPI).

3. Special teams / fourth down – The kicking game (two “blocked” kicks, neither of which had an upward trajectory) really cost the Statesmen last Saturday and so it may be incumbent on the offense to complete drives or go for it on fourth down. Hobart is seven for 15 (42.7%) on the season, including going one of three vs. RPI last Saturday.

Prediction:

Last Saturday’s result notwithstanding this team has better overall talent than many, if not all, of Hobart’s NCAA playoff teams from the last decade. That said I expect the team to rebound and clinch the NCAA bid (and guessing a fifth seed in the bracket, more on that later), but in a higher scoring affair in spite of the defensive strengths of both teams, Saturday in Rochester 33-30.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Hobart blows 21 point lead, come up short on Senior Day to RPI, 29-28

The #24 Hobart Statesmen hosted the RPI Engineers on Senior Day at Boswell Field. Early on it looked like the Statesmen would be on their way to their first Liberty League championship since 2008 when JR RB Bobby Dougherty gave Hobart an early lead. He found the end zone from one yard out, capping a 13 play, 79 yard drive with 6:09 to play in the first quarter.

The Statesmen extended their lead to 21-0 behind two touchdown passes from JR QB Nick Strang to JR TE Brent Matazinsky for 19 yards and SR WR Garth Muratori from six yards. The Muratori touchdown was the 17th in his career - tying him for fifth all time for receiving touchdowns at Hobart.

Although the Statesmen were up 21 points, JR QB Mike Hermann and the RPI Engineers managed to connect on a 46 yard touchdown pass to WR Steven Burpoe to pull within 14 with 6:59 to play in the half after the Andrew Franks point after was good.

Hobart would strike back as well after SO RB Steven Webb broke a 25 yard run for a touchdown to post the Statesmen to a 28-7 advantage. Hermann would waste little time, finding Mike Blais open for a 62 yard touchdown and driving RPI to connect on a 21 yard field goal to bring the Engineers within 11 points as RPI would trail 28-17 at the half.

The second half would prove to be all RPI as the Statesmen racked up first downs and yardage but were otherwise shut out on offense. Hermann would be the catalyst behind a one yard pass to Matt Wood and rush to score from 10 yards out in the fourth quarter to push the Engineers to a 29-28 advantage.

Although Hobart would threaten to take the lead, the RPI defense stood firm, blocking a short Stephen Bruening field goal and forcing the Statesmen to turn it over on downs before taking the victory formation and clinching a hard fought 29-28 upset victory.

Hermann lead the Engineers with 306 of RPI's 342 yards including three passing and one rushing touchdowns. Hermann's favorite target was Burpoe who hauled in five receptions for 71 yards and a score. Defensively the Engineers were lead by Ted Abriel with 10 total tackles.

Hobart outgained RPI by 131 yards and had twice as many first downs (30 to their 15) as the Engineers, but came up short when it mattered most. The Statesmen were lead by Strang with 271 yards passing and two touchdowns. Senior linebacker Reggie Robinson had a game high 11 total tackles and two tackles for a loss.

With the win RPI improves to .500 with a 4-4 overall record and 3-2 in the league. Hobart drops to 6-1, 4-1 in the league and will need to defeat Rochester next weekend on the road to clinch the league championship and accompanying NCAA automatic bid.

#24 Hobart sees 21 point lead disappear against RPI to lose first game, 29-28

Hobart (6-1, 4-1) dropped their first game of the season to RPI (4-4, 3-2).  Hard to figure this one out.  Perhaps RPI caught the Statesmen looking ahead?  The good news is Hobart can still win the Liberty League with a victory at Rochester next Saturday (or pending the outcome of today's Union-MMA game).

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Can Hobart go 8-0 (and does it really matter)?

You won’t get an answer from Coach Cragg or the rest of coaching staff on this one. Their focus is, and should be, on beating the RPI Engineers this Saturday. However, after an impressive 6-0 run and only two games left, this is a question on the minds of many Statesmen alumni, fans and others who follow Division III football.

Since I was a little curious, I did some research. What I found out was that Hobart Football has only been 8-0 once in their 118 year history. You have to go all the way back to 1954 to find the only team that accomplished this feat, winning eight straight games and finishing a perfect 8-0. Overall there have been only five undefeated Hobart teams – 1891 (the inaugural and very short 2-0 season), 1896 (9-0-3), 1915 (5-0-1) and 1957 (6-0) being the others – all-time, so the 2011 squad has a rare opportunity to join a very exclusive fraternity if they finish 8-0.

Although eight wins in a row hasn't happened in 57 years, the last time the Statesmen won seven in a row wasn’t that long ago. It was 2006 in fact when a seven game Hobart win streak was broken by rival Union College, 31-14. You have to go back just two years earlier to the last time Hobart won seven in a row to go undefeated in the Liberty League (LL) en route to a 9-2 overall finish, tying the program record for wins in a season (the team also had 9 overall wins in 2005 and 2008), advancing to the second round of the NCAA playoffs.

Given the current NCAA football tournament format, not to mention a handful of programs that have dominated Division III football (and should move up to DII or FCS) for the past 10-15 years, it’s likely that this run will eventually come to an end at some point (perhaps in a place called Alliance, but I digress).

Regardless of the historic implications cited above, the Statesmen actually don’t even need to go undefeated to win the league and go to the NCAA playoffs (i.e., a 7-1 record would effectively clinch the NCAA automatic bid based on LL tiebreaker rules). That said, it begs the question should ending the year 8-0 even be a priority for Hobart? Why not rest some starters, get healthy, etc before finding out who the first round NCAA opponent will be?

I can't speak for the Coaches or the team but I hope they shoot for 8-0. The company it would place this team in, not to mention making good on the end of the 2010 season, (when Hobart lost to RPI on a last second FG and to Rochester in 2OT when a two point conversion pass fell incomplete) and going into the playoffs on an eight game win streak (and receiving potentially as high as a number two or three seed in their bracket) should be motivation enough to accomplish the same in my opinion.

Can they do it? Time will tell. The final march to perfection (and history) starts this Saturday, November 5.

More on the RPI game later this week.  Go 'Bart!

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

#24 Hobart ranked #2 in the NCAA initial regional rankings

The #24 Hobart Statesmen could be the #2 seed in the D3 football tournament in a "East (until a #1 seed is named) Bracket".  Of course this just an initial ranking and could change pending how teams fare in the next two weeks.

Check back tomorrow for a discussion regarding Hobart's potential of going undefeated for only the second time in program history...

That's it for now.  Go 'Bart!