UofR / Centennial Cup Game and Senior Day Preview

The eighth ranked Hobart College Statesmen will host their oldest active rival, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets, on Senior Day at Boswell Field this Saturday in each team’s regular season finales. Hobart (9-0, 6-0) is looking to cap their third consecutive undefeated regular season, a feat that is a first in Statesmen history and would end the Class of 2015’s regular season careers’ with an incredible 36-1 (.972) record 38-4 overall, so tomorrow would be their 39th win which is pretty awesome). Conversely the Yellow Jackets (5-3, 3-3) are seeking their first six win season since 2007.

Hobart leads the all time series by a mark of 51-48-7 and has not lost to Rochester since the 2010 season. In 2007, the schools created the Centennial Cup Trophy to commemorate the 100th game between the two rivals. The Statesmen are 6-1 all time in the Centennial Cup series and will look to retain the Cup this season. Last year, Hobart had four takeaways and three sacks in a 42-21 rout of the Yellow Jackets.

Scouting Rochester:

#16 FY QB Daniel Bronson – Although only a rookie, Bronson has quickly become one of the LL’s rising stars and a potential ROTY candidate. He ranks 12th overall in rushing with 416 yards and four TDs while also going 70 of 126 (55.6%) for 944 yards and seven TDs. He has second best pass efficiency rating of active starting QBs but has thrown five interceptions in eight games.

#32 SO RB Myles Allen – has rushed for 594 yards on 123 carries, good for a LL fourth best 71.4 YPG average, and five rushing TDs.

#9 JR WR Farid Adenuga – leads Rochester with 393 receiving yards and five TD catches. His 49.1 YPG average is fourth best in the league.

#28 JR CB R.J. Borgolini – one of the top tacklers on the Yellow Jackets defense, Borgolini has 59 stops in seven games (8.4 TPG) and an interception.

#34 FY OLB Isaiah Smith – another potential ROTY candidate, Smith has been a beast on defense and special teams for Rochester this season. He leads the Yellow Jackets with 67 tackles and was named to last week’s D3football.com’s “Team of the Week” for recovering a fumble and blocking a potential game winning field goal by WPI in a 24-21 OT win for Rochester. He also earned D3football.com TOTW honors back on 10/23 for a 17 tackle performance in a 34-20 win over RPI (5-4, 3-3).

#39 JR OLB Thomas Marone – second on the team with 62 tackles including a team high four sacks.

Keys to the Game: 

1. Ball Control – After committing a season high five turnovers at Saint Lawrence (7-2, 5-1) last Saturday, the Statesmen need to do a better job at protecting the football. The good news for Hobart is that the Yellow Jackets don’t create too many takeaways. In fact, they only have two interceptions and a -5 turnover margin overall.

2. Ball Control, Part II – Hobart has kept time of possession by about five more minutes a game on average than Rochester (33:04 to 28:06). Keeping this edge will go a long way to the Statesmen winning another Centennial Cup game. The Yellow Jackets rush defense is not stout, allowing 198.1 YPG. I expect a lot of running plays to keep the game clock going, especially given the strength of Rochester is their pass defense. The Yellow Jackets only allow 147.8 YPG which is second best in the league. Rochester has allowed only eight passing TDs (basically one per game).

3. Enjoy the Day – as stated above, this game will be the last home regular season game for the Class of 2015. Their run has been spectacular and I hope the players and their families take in what they have accomplished. Although the weather can change in a New York minute, the current forecast is a cold, but dry and mostly wind free day Saturday which is about as good as you can expect for mid-November Upstate.

Prediction: I think Hobart won’t struggle too much with a good, but not great, Rochester team. I’ll take the Statesmen to win 37-13.

Please tune into NCAA.com at 6PM to find out Hobart’s first round playoff opponent and bracket placement, then to InTheHuddLLe.com at 7:30 PM this Sunday night. On ITH we’ll speak with Head Coach Mike Cragg and NCAA D3FB Championship Committee Char Duey Naatz about the 2014 Playoffs.

Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!

2nd NCAA Regional Playoff Rankings Released, Hobart Still 2nd

Although the Hobart College Statesmen have a higher national ranking, one more win over a RRO (regional ranked opponent, in this case Saint Lawrence) and a better SoS; they still ended up second to Delaware Valley (9-0) in the latest NCAA playoff rankings released tonight. A link to the rankings can be found here.

I am at a bit of a loss but at the end of the day all the Statesmen (9-0, 6-0) can do is beat Rochester (5-3, 3-3) and let the rest take care of itself Saturday night (when the final, unpublished rankings come out and the Committee begins creating the respective Championship bracket).

While it seems like the #2 seed they received in 2012 for going 10-0 may not happen this year, it is possible that Widener (9-0) defeating DVC on Saturday for the MAC title could be just enough to boost Hobart into a 2 seeding, especially given the "Whitewater rule". Ultimately less than .02 separates the teams as far as SoS goes and Widener would get a boost from beating DelVal whereas Hobart won't get much, if any lift, from beating UofR.

Regardless, we'll know how it turns out come Sunday at 6 PM. In the meantime, let the fan hand wringing begin (like how Framingham State is ranked four places higher than Rowan, a team it lost to H2H).

I will have the UofR game preview up tomorrow. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

DeWall Talks SLU & UofR on ITH, Polls Drop Hobart to 8th

The Hobart College Statesmen (9-0, 6-0) have a big week coming up after winning their fourth consecutive Liberty League title. We spoke to OC Kevin DeWall '00 last night about the SLU game, the approach to this weekend's UofR (5-3, 3-3) game and potential playoff seedings / draws.

The podcast can be heard here.

In spite of winning their fourth conference title, the Statesmen were leapfrogged by Johns Hopkins to fall to eighth in both the D3football.com and AFCA polls. This seems to fall in line with the recent NCAA regional playoff rankings which came out last Wednesday and will be refreshed this Wednesday afternoon. If Hobart remains in 2nd in the next RRs my guess is barring a potential "photo finish / Whitewater rule" scenario with Widener (currently in 3rd), they'd end up as a third seed in their respective bracket.

While Widener, if they beat Delaware Valley (ranked 1st), would have either the same amount of wins against ranked opponents as or one more (if Lycoming goes 8-2) than the Statesmen, their SoS is actually lower than Hobart's which may help the Statesmen's seeding.

We will have Head Coach Mike Cragg and Duey Naatz, the Chair of the D3FB Championship Committee on ITH next Sunday after 7:30 pm to discuss Hobart's draw in the tournament and other topics, so please tune in.

This week I'll post a reaction to the next set of RR's Wednesday and have the UofR preview up sometime Thursday.

Thanks for reading and go Bart!

Not Pretty, But We'll Take The Win, Hobart Outlasts SLU, 29-27

The #7 Hobart College Statesmen won their fourth straight LL Championship today, 29-27, in a nail biter at Saint Lawrence. Hobart (9-0, 6-0) did their best to give this one away, turning over the ball FIVE times to the Saints (7-2, 5-1) nationally ranked defense.

In the end it was the Statesmen defense who played big and the offense did just enough, overcoming their mistakes with 488 total yards and big runs by JR RBs Conner Hartigan and Alex Furtado behind an excellent game by the Hobart OL in the second half.

But who knew that it would come down to FY PK Will McCool connecting on a 32 yard FG to push the Statesmen to a 29-27 win? On a weekend where higher ranked teams fell in conference championship games (e.g., Ithaca beating Fisher and Morrisville beating Montclair), Hobart hung on and won.

Tune into ITH tomorrow night when we talk to Coach DeWall about today's game.

More analysis to come.

Stanley Talks SLU, Hobart 2nd In Initial NCAA East Region Rankings

Although the Hobart College Statesmen (8-0, 5-0) rank 7th in both the D3football.com and AFCA polls, the NCAA sent a clear message today that they disagree with that ranking. Reading between the lines this probably means only one home playoff game, if they can beat Saint Lawrence (7-1, 5-0) who came in at sixth, and finish 10-0.

Widener (8-0) beating Delaware Valley (8-0) in their season finale may help Hobart, but that remains to be seen. The Statesmen would get both a Strength of Schedule and Regional Ranked Opponent boost by beating SLU. Husson winning the ECFC could help too as their location in ME is a scheduling issue for the NCAA given the 500 mile rule. Best case for the Statesmen would be drawing a tough but beatable Round 1 opponent in say, NJAC champ Montclair, then hosting the winner of the Husson-MIT game. All that is pure projections and may not come to pass. Hobart really just needs to focus on SLU.

A link to the rankings can be found here. 

We discussed Hobart's low SOS as a potential issue on ITH last Sunday and it appears to have hurt them, at least in this first round. Another ranking will be released next week, then a final unpublished one used to seed the 32 team NCAA bracket.

You can hear that discussion plus an interview with JR LB Jacob Stanley here.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart! 

SLU / LL Title Game Preview

So it’s come down to this weekend where the irresistible force meets the unmovable object. On the line for only the fourth time since 2004 is the Liberty League (LL) title in a winner take all game. Both teams have defenses ranked in the Top 10 nationally, so expect a low scoring, hard hitting affair.

Hobart (8-0, 5-0) boasts a strong scoring offense (34.5 PPG) while the Saints (7-1, 5-0) have the LL’s best scoring defense (11 PPG). The Saints offense averages 25.9 PPG is led by a strong passing attack (201.3 YPG) and a LL leading 17 passing TDs. Conversely the Saints are ball hawks, collecting a LL high 17 interceptions (tied for second nationally) while only allowing three passing TDs all season. The Statesmen defensive strength is against the run, having only allowed 87.3 YPG rushing and four rush TDs.

Last season the Statesmen raced out to 24-0 lead before cruising to a 37-7 win over the Saints in Geneva. Hobart held SLU to only 145 total yards and only allowing three of 17 third down conversions. The Statesmen led the all-time series vs. SLU with a 47-37-2 mark. Hobart last lost to the Saints in 2010 in a 24-21 decision that was the first win by SLU over Hobart since 1991.

Scouting the Saints: 

#6 SR QB Mike Lefflbine – the top rated passer in the LL, Lefflbine has a nearly 60% completion rate, going 142 of 237 for 15 TDs and only four INTs. Lefflbine is a mobile QB who is most comfortable in roll out and play action type of plays. While not overly quick, Lefflbine is mobile and has gained 176 rushing yards and scoring two TDs this season.

#72 SR OT Luke Lendaway – a SR Co-Captain, the VT native led an OL that gave up a LL low three sacks in 2013. This season the Saints OL has allowed eight sacks (or one per game) and who’s blocking has assisted SLU maintain a 35:33 TOP average.

#16 SO TE Mitch Gallagher – big (6’2” 225 lbs) and athletic, Gallagher is a match up challenge for Hobart. He is first in the LL with 581 receiving yards and tied for first with five receiving TDs. His counterpart is #86 SO TE Matt Gardiner who is also tall (6’3” 217 lbs) and has caught 26 passes for 294 yards and three TDs.

The “Goon Squad” – A trio of outstanding players in #1 JR Evan Lapice (34 tackles, four INTs including an 80 pick six last week vs. WPI), #4 SO James Holley-Grisham (46 tackles, seven INTs) and dual threat #3 JR Leondre Simmon (14 tackles, five INTs while also adding 10 receptions for 140 yards and four TDs on offense).

#15 SO LB Alec Dietsch – last year’s LL ROTY, Dietsch leads the Saints with 56 tackles. #55 SO DE Chyron Brown-Wallace – leads SLU with 12.5 TFL and seven sacks.

#30 SO PK Andrew Carvalho – Perfect and leading the LL in PATs with a 27-27 mark, Carvalho has struggled with FGs. He’s only four of seven and has a long of 36.

Keys to the Game: 

1. Win the LOS – To me this game is about how Hobart’s OL handles the Saints DL. I have no doubt the Statesmen DL and LBs will put pressure on Lefflbine because they’ll need to in order to avoid him being able to exploit a clear size advantage of SLU’s tall TE’s and WR’s vs. Hobart’s shorter OLB’s and DB’s. The Statesmen will need to be able to run the ball against SLU’s stout rush defense which only allows 114.3 YPG. The Statesmen average 267 YPG rushing, so something’s going to give here. I expect a heavy dose of SR FB Dominique Ellis and JR FB Christopher Holoman to wear down the Saints LBs.

2. Avoid Turnovers / Special Teams Mistakes - the Saints have made a living this season off of turnovers. SLU ranks fifth in the nation with a +17 turnover margin. The Saints also average nearly 20 YPR on kickoffs and Holley-Grisham averages over 16 YPR on punts. He took a WPI punt 52 yards to the house last Saturday in a 20-7 win in Worcester. The Saints have the best punt team in terms of Net/P (34.1 yards) in the LL.

3. Third Down – SLU has struggled on third downs in spots, only converting 35.5% vs. Hobart’s LL leading 48.5%. However, the Saints defense leads the LL allowing only 29.2% opponent conversions. If the Statesmen rushing game stalls in the cold, grass field at Leckonby Stadium, Hobart will need SR QB Patrick Conlan to take to the air and gain valuable yards. Last season the Statesmen only went three of 13 on third down but had enough success on first and second down to warrant only four punts in the game. Hobart went for it four times and converted twice, and may elect to attempt some fourth down plays, pending field position and weather conditions (currently showing high, but otherwise dry, 39 after a snowy Friday).

Prediction: 

I believe the first half will be a back and forth, lowing scoring affair. I do think the Statesmen offense will catch steam and pull away late in the third quarter to win the game 24-10 and capture a fourth straight LL championship.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

PS - check back for quick update tmw once the NCAA East Regional Playoff rankings come out....

Defense Dominates Dutchmen in 30-6 Win

The eighth ranked Hobart College Statesmen hosted their second oldest active rival, the Union College Dutchmen Saturday at Boswell Field. After the Statesmen defense forced a Union three and out, SR QB Patrick Conlan led Hobart on a 12 play drive that was capped by a nine yard TD pass to SR WR Troy Robinson, his first TD catch of the season.

FY PK Will McCool's point after was good and the Statesmen took an early 7-0 lead with 7:24 to go in the first quarter. The Dutchmen offense would respond as FY QB Dante Cioffi led Union to the Hobart 14 yard line. After a SR RB Darnel Thomas run on third down was stopped for no gain, JR PK David Pope came on to attempt a 31 yard field goal. The kick was good and the Dutchmen trimmed the Statesmen’s lead to 7-3 with 3:52 to go in the first.

Hobart would get back to work on offense and drive to the Union nine yard line. On the first play of the second quarter, SR TE Mike Berkowitz scored his 15th career TD on a nine yard pass play. The McCool kick was good and the Statesmen led 14-3 with 14:56 to go in the first half. The next 13 minutes saw both teams defenses dig in. Hobart would finally reach the Union 13 yard line but couldn’t convert on third down. McCool would come into the game to attempt his first career field goal on this play which was good from 30 yards out to push the Hobart's lead to 17-3.

Although Union only had 1:39 left before half time an excellent kickoff return (or not so good coverage, which was an issue in today's game) gave the Dutchmen the ball at their 44 yard line. Cioffi would drive his team to the Hobart 22 yard line, when once again Pope was called on to attempt another field goal attempt, this time from 39 yards. The kick was good and the 17-6 score would stand at the half.

Both offenses struggled to start the second half but on Hobart’s third possession, the Statesmen running game started to gain traction. Behind the Hobart OL, SO RB Brad Burns, JR FB Christopher Holoman and JR RB Alex Furtado helped drive the team to the Dutchmen 14 yard line. The Statesmen called a timeout with 3:48 to go in the third quarter. On the ensuing play SR FB Dominique Ellis ran in for a TD. The McCool kick was good and Hobart extended its advantage to 24-6 with 3:41 to go in the quarter.

Both defenses kept the opposing offenses at bay into the fourth quarter. The Statesmen defense would make a statement when JR LB Jacob Stanley broke through the Union line, sack Cioffi, force a fumble, then scoop and score from 44 yards out. The McCool point after was no good but Hobart had a 30-6 lead with 11:34 to go in the game.

Hobart would try and add to this lead but committed two turnovers in the final drives of the fourth quarter. Although Hobart wouldn’t score again, they did enough to win the game 30-6. The Statesmen defense has not allowed a TD since the 2nd quarter of the Springfield game back on October 11th. Hobart held Union to a paltry 10 rushing yards while controlling TOP by an incredible 38:16 to 21:44 margin.

Leading the Dutchmen on offense was Cioffi with 206 passing yards. He was intercepted late in the game by JR LB Trayvon Toney. Conlan led Hobart with 148 passing yards and two TDs. Defensively Union was led by JR LB Thomas Hayes with a game high 10 tackles, including one for a loss and forcing a Statesmen fumble.

Hobart was led by SR DB Fajri Jackson with eight stops. Stanley and JR OLB Marcus Jemison recorded seven tackles a piece. SR DE Tyre Coleman Swas credited with a sack and one and half tackles for a loss. The sack moved Coleman in sole possession of fourth place in the all time career list for Division III. He’s eighth all time in tackles for a loss.

The win improves Hobart to 8-0 overall and 5-0 in the league. The Statesmen will take on Saint Lawrence (7-1, 5-0) next Saturday in Canton, New York for the Liberty League Championship. The loss drops Union to 1-7 overall and 1-4 in the league. The Dutchmen will host the Merchant Marine Academy (2-6, 0-5) next Saturday in Schenectady.

With fifth ranked Linfield being upset 31-28 by Willamette today it's possible Hobart will move up one spot to seventh in the D3football.com and AFCA polls. Tune in to ITH tomorrow night at 7:30 PM where we'll have highlights from this game, plus an interview with Jacob Stanley.

Thanks for reading and go Bart!