Week 7 - Ithaca Game Preview

The end of the gauntlet is finally here, as the Hobart College Statesmen travel to #9 Ithaca College to take on the Bombers (5-0, 2-0) in a key LL match up. The Statesmen (5-1, 1-1) are riding high after their best game of the season, a 41-27 beating of RPI (4-2, 1-1) in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicates.

A lot of the backdrop on this game will be about how Hobart, who trails the overall series by a 5-27 margin (but has gone 4-5 against the Bombers since 2000), has never won against Ithaca on the road. The Bombers have a two game win streak against Hobart, having beaten them 24-21 in Ithaca back in 2017 and by a 10-3 margin in Geneva last season. The Statesmen defense gave the 2017 game away in the final two minutes and the 2018 game came down to the offense getting bogged down, in part to 10 penalties for -110 yards, including two turnovers.

Realistically Hobart could have won either of those contests and will need to avoid past pitfalls against a strong, but beatable, Ithaca team this year.

Scouting the Bombers

Ithaca boasts the #1 scoring offense in the LL, averaging 47.6 PPG. SR QB Joe Germiniero, Jr. leads the top passing offense in the conference, averaging 330.4 YPG, and the running game isn't far behind, ranked second overall averaging 127.4 YPG, respectively. Germiniero, who's 2-0 against Hobart in his career, has completed over 70% of his passes for 1,563 yards, 18 TDs, compared to only 3 INTs. He's scored 3 rushing TDs as well.

His favorite target is the reigning LL OPOTY, SR WR Will Gladney. Not surprisingly, he leads the LL in receiving yards with 590 to go with 9 TDs. JR WR Andrew Vito and SO WR Michael Anderson have combined for 56 receptions for 707 yards and 5 TDs. SR RB Isaiah D'Haiti leads the team with 172 rushing yards and 5 TDs, which clearly points to Ithaca's preference of the pass over the run in HC Dan Swanstrom's offense.

The Bombers OL is a mix of veterans and newcomers with SR C Michael Conley and SR LT Kyle Berna being the most experienced of the group. The other starters (according to last Saturday's box score - a relatively easy 48-14 win over 0-6 Buffalo State) are SO LG Andrew Testani, SO RG Jake Villanueva (who was a starter as a FY and is the biggest - 6'4", 315 lbs. - of what's a moderately sized group) and SO RT Brendan Martin. The OL has allowed 6 sacks in five games so far.

Defensively the Bombers have an almost entirely new cast of characters, and that inexperience has been exposed a handful of times this season. The best example of this was during the second half of the Bombers game against St. John Fisher (3-3, 0-2 E8). The Cardinals rallied down 25 points at the half to push Ithaca to the brink of their first defeat, shutting out the Bombers offense and nearly pulling off the upset.

SR LB Nick Garone leads the team with 39 tackles, including 2 sacks and 3 INTs. SR DL John Hadac leads the Bombers and LL with 6.5 sacks and 10.5 TFL. SO DB Anthony Robinson leads the secondary with nine PBUs to go with 29 tackles and 2 TFL. JR DB Khiry Brown has 2 of the 9 INTs the Ithaca defense has produced in 5 games.

FY PK Nicholas Bahamonde is a perfect 7-7 on FGs with a long of 47 yards. He also handles KOs, averaging 59.3 yards PKO. Nearly half of KOs have ended up as TBs. SO PK Brian Fallon has handled most of the punting duties, averaging a net of 37.73 YPP. SO RB AJ Clifford has returned virtually all the KOs this season, averaging a solid 26.19 YPKOR. SR WR Kyle Smith has returned one punt for a TD, otherwise Anderson has fielded a handful of punts as well.

Keys to the Game:

1. Don't Believe the Hype / Bring the Noise - The Germiniero transfer raised a lot of eyebrows in the off-season, making Ithaca the defacto favorite in the LL title race, and Joe certainly hasn't disappointed his new team. That said, RPI provided a blue print on how to rattle and ultimately beat the strong-armed QB last season with a steady dose of middle and outside pressure, forcing him into bad throws and missing his reads, leading to INTs. The Cardinals nearly succeeded in a similar way, picking off and sacking Germiniero twice in the game. The Statesmen will need to follow a similar script, using a variety of blitz packages to disrupt the Bombers potent offense. It's fair to say Ithaca hasn't faced a defense with as much talent, even with the number of injuries to the DL/LB corps, as this Statesmen unit possesses. If JR OLB Emmett Forde can get some hits Germiniero the way he dropped RPI JR QB George Marinopolous, it's game on in Ithaca.

2. Protect the Football - Even if the Bombers defense has been more porous against the pass than last year, they have done a good job with take-away's, which is something the Statesmen can't afford on the road this weekend. The Ithaca run defense has good stats, but they struggled to handle Alfred SR RB Aaron Griffin in Week 3. The problem for the Saxons was their passing game was almost non-existent, allowing the Bombers to chip away on offense, and take advantage of a couple of short fields. If the Hobart OL can help SR RB Brian Haeffner curn out some tough yards, the best defense against Germiniero and company could simply be just eat up clock and keep the Bombers offense on the sideline as much as possible.

3. Dig (and Go) Deep - Hobart will need SR QB Ryan Hofmann to be accurate with his throws and look for the opportunity to connect on the deep ball like we've seen a few times this season. JR WR Mike Giacobbe will be a match up problem for the Bombers, and the Statesmen will need to take some shots with SR WR Ray Conley as well.

4. In With the New - Swanstrom doesn't know much about guys like FY RBs Tim Denham, Jr and Rayshawn Boswell. FY TE Charlie Pierce could be an X factor too in certain goal line situations. SO WR Shahkyle Matthews is another weapon Hobart could leverage a bit more to keep the Bombers defense on their heels. The Bombers are basically the biggest and best opponent on Hobart's schedule - time to throw the proverbial "kitchen sink" at Ithaca and leave it all on the field.

Prediction:

This all depends on what Statesmen team shows up?

If it's the Union game guys - forget it. Ithaca romps Hobart in the 35-21 zone. If it's the RPI game guys - then we're talking about a one-score game like the past two seasons where the Hobart defense and ST units can make a difference with a turnover, fake punt / gadget play.

Points will be at a premium either way so I expect to see at least a couple JR PK Kyle Hackett FG attempts. The Bombers PK is a strong one also, so a potential FG block play could come in handy for Hobart.

Hopefully Hobart finally breaks the Butterfield streak and leaves that behind them for good. Ithaca is probably over-rated at #9 in the nation, but that could be something the Statesmen use to their advantage. All the pressure is on the Bombers to win here. Hobart has been the more disciplined team in all their games this season, and the penalty stats show it, with the Statesmen having the least amount of flags and penalty yardage in all the LL. Ithaca has the most. Will it be a deciding factor Saturday? Time will tell....

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Statesmen Rebound, Rout RPI, 41-27

The Hobart College Statesmen evened their LL record at 1-1 and improved to 5-1 on the season with an resounding beat-down of defending conference champion, RPI. The Engineers (4-2, 1-1) had no answers for an attacking Statesmen defense (until the starters were pulled in the 4th quarter as Hobart was up 38-7)  that forced two INTs and sacked JR QB George Marinopolous twice and had 6 TFL.

JR OLB Emmett Forde is making a serious case to be named the LL DPOTY, if not All-American, based on his stats to date. He led the Hobart defense (unofficially) with 12 tackles and 4 TFL, including a FF.

It looked like this might be more of a defensive struggle early on, as Hobart's first offensive play ended up as an INT and RPI's early tries ended up in punts. JR PK Kyle Hackett even had a rare FG miss. He would redeem himself with two successful FG tries later in the game.

The tide started to turn in Hobart's favor as a tough defensive stand held the RPI offense at the 39 yard line. The Statesmen offense would drive 61 yards and SR RB Brian Haeffner would rumble into the end zone, dodging would-be tacklers, to give Hobart an early 7-0 lead. The Engineers would capitalize on a second Statesmen turnover; however, a recovering a fumble by FY RB Tim Denham, Jr., then tying the game off a misdirection gadget pass play.

Hobart quickly would take the lead back on a 65-yard SR QB Ryan Hofmann to JR WR Mike Giacobbe pass and run. The Statesmen never looked back and rattled off 31 unanswered points.

Hofmann finished the day with 294 pass yards to go with 3 TDs, recovering well from the early INT. Hofmann has passed for over 3,000 yards in his Hobart career. SR WR Ray Conley was his favorite target, catching six passes for 111 yards, but Giacobbe was the most opportunistic, converting both of his catches for TDs. Haeffner and SO QB David Krewson combined for 50 rush yards and two scores.

Today's win sets up the highly anticipated rematch between Hobart and #10 Ithaca. As has been well chronicled, the Statesmen have never won at Butterfield Stadium. They will need to next Saturday to force a potential tiebreaker situation with unbeaten Union still in control of their destiny. Today's loss for RPI basically means the Engineers will need to win out, hope for some help in order to not be eliminated from the NCAA playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Week 6 - RPI Game Preview

The grind continues for the Hobart College Statesmen who return home to face off against the defending LL-champions RPI. The Engineers (4-1, 1-0) come into the game off of back-to-back 38 point shutouts and appear to be on a roll. RPI's lone loss was a 3-point decision to WPI (5-0), who sits a top the NEWMAC (which is officially an AQ conference this season) and is ranked #1 in New England D3FB.

RPI has shown balance on both sides of the ball and, as always, boasts one of the stronger ST units in the LL, if not the East. Last season Hobart (4-1, 0-1) dug themselves into a 24-3 hole, before starting a late rally after then JR WR Ray Conley caught two TD passes to pull the score to 24-17 with 2:51 remaining in the game. The teams traded quick TDs after that and it wasn't until a failed onside kick attempt by the Statesmen in the final seconds that effectively ended the game.

The Engineers hold a narrow 31-30-1 edge over Hobart in the all-time series, which dates back to 1910. RPI has had Hobart's number this past decade, going 5-4 against Statesmen, including wins in three of the last four contests. Hobart last defeated RPI at the Boz in 2017, in a 30-0 shutout, but a lot has changed in Troy, NY since that meeting.

Scouting the Engineers

The biggest development coming out of their 30-0 loss to Hobart back in 2017 was Engineers HC Ralph Isernia deciding to give the starting QB job to (now) JR QB George Marinopolous who's led RPI to 19 wins in their last 23 games, including a run into the national quarterfinals last season.

The Guilderland (NY) HS grad has passed for 1,059 yds and 12 TDs so far this season, completing nearly 67% of his attempts, while throwing only 3 INTs. Marinopolous also has one rushing TD on the season but has mostly spread the ball around, as the Engineers have five different receivers with over 10 catches. SR WR Nick Smith has been his favorite target based on his team high 17 receptions for 210 yards and 2 TDs. The favorite end zone target is JR WR Vinnie McDonald with a team high 4 TDs. McDonald's size (6'4" 220lbs) will be a challenge for pretty much any secondary. McDonald also can throw the ball, completing a 76-yard TD pass in the season opener against Allegheny (0-4).The Statesmen LBs will need to keep an eye out for SR SB Marc Meislahn, who's caught 16 passes for 184 yards while also scoring 5 rushing TDs in short yardage situations.

The Engineers have split carries between SO RB Joe Scaglione (42 carries for 198 rush yards) and SO RB Dylan Burnett (34 carries for 202 rush yards and 1 TD).

The RPI OL is led by SR RG Jakob Grant, but otherwise is a younger, inexperienced OL compared to last season. SO C Thomas Olausen, SO LG Rick Demboske, FY LT Luke Koscioc and FY RT Shawn Gibbons were the starters in last week's win over Rochester (0-5). This young OL has done a solid job, only allowing three sacks so far this season.

This overall unit is helping the Engineers gain 33.2 PPG, 365.8 YPG of total offense, scoring 20 TDs (the defense has scored two).

Defensively RPI is holding opponents to only 10.6 PPG and is led by LL DPOTY candidate SR LB John Sadak. He has a team high 32 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 sack and an INT. The Engineers run a 3-3-5 scheme that provides various looks and uses a "rover" and multiple safeties. SR DL Andrew Banaitis has a team high 3 sacks to go with 17 tackles and 3.5 TFL. JR DL Amaechi Konkwo is having another good year, tallying 2 sacks, 4 TFL, 1 FF and 1 FR.

The secondary has a lot of new names compared to past seasons, but so far so good, as RPI has only allowed 229 passing YPG and 4 TDs to go with 6 INTs. The Engineers rush defense has been very stout, allowing only 61.6 rush YPG and 2 scores all season.

On special teams, JR PK Zac Montrief has averaged 34.35 YPP, forcing 8 FC and dropping another 8 punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. JR PK Sanjay Krishnan has handled FGs and PATs, converting 4-5 with a long of 34 yards. He also is the KO specialist, averaging over 56 YPKO. The return men for RPI have been numerous, but SO WR Matt Spellman and SR WR Delano Munoz Whatts have handled the majority of PR and KORs.

Keys to the Game:

1. Get Off to a Fast Start - Hobart has scored six points - both on JR PK Kyle Hackett FGs - in their opening drives so far this season. It would go a long way to get an early lead on the Engineers, especially at home where the Statesmen tend to play their best games. This is only RPI's second road game of the season, they're 0-1 and haven't scored any TDs away from the ECAV yet this season.

2. Win the TOM & TOP Battle - Hobart was -2 last weekend in the loss to Union. When RPI lost to WPI they were -3 and in the game against Utica, a narrow 2 point win back in Week 3, they were -1. Given the Statesmen's offensive struggles, they need to protect the football and look for ways to rattle Marinopolous into making somewhat rare mistakes. While he didn't turn over the ball against Rochester, he has thrown an INT in each of the three prior competitive games (against Allegheny, WPI and Utica), meaning Hobart should be able to come up with at least one Saturday. WPI and Utica also beat RPI in TOP, Utica especially, holding the ball for nearly 34 minutes. Hobart will need to put some drives together and convert a few third downs, which they haven't done a good job with this season, but the Engineers defense has been allowing opponents to convert them at over a 40% clip.

3. Air Raid - Speaking of Utica, they proved the Engineers secondary is susceptible to the pass. Neither WPI nor Utica could run the ball much against the RPI front six, and given the health and run-blocking challenges we've seen on the Hobart OL, we probably need a game plan similar to the one against Rowan. I wouldn't be surprised to see around 45 attempts or more Saturday.

Prediction:

The stats point to a win for the Engineers in this one by probably 10 points. The Statesmen will need to find a way to limit RPI's balanced attack and scoring opportunities. The Hobart defense has been tough to score on in the red zone, allowing only five TDs in 18 tries. Unfortunately the Statesmen offense has only scored 9 TDs in 21 trips. They will need to do better than that against the Engineers to win Saturday.

I'm hoping Hobart will be able to hang on in a close one.

We will see how the Statesmen respond to their first big adversity of the season. Thanks for reading and go 'Bart.

Statesmen Season Stalls in Schenectady in 23-7 Loss to Union

I had to give myself the 24-hour rule on this one.

I consider the coaching staff as friends and/or acquaintances at least and we certainly share wanting the best for Hobart Football in common. Unfortunately if I am supposed to be a "reporter", "journalist" or "football analyst" sometimes I will have to say / write things that just won't / can't come off as positive. I know this is viewed negatively at HWS - I've been told as such (by people within the administration, not athletics, btw). Apparently criticism, constructive or otherwise, isn't welcome there, ever. Unfortunately I feel it's justified in this case and not surprisingly a lot of alums, fans and families I know feel the same way based on messages I've received in the last 24 hours. If you want a measured, kinder spin on the game, you can read the HWS recap here.

With LL play opening and rivalry bragging rights on the line, the Statesmen came out flat and found themselves in a 14-0 hole they never dug themselves out from. While the team showed some resiliency, a combination of poor play-calling and execution continued to put Hobart at a disadvantage against a Union (4-0, 1-0) team that simply came in healthier and more prepared off a bye week.

After pounding our chests for national respect and rankings, we gave it away quickly in what's a hard to stomach loss. While the loss doesn't end the Hobart season, it pretty much killed any chance of the Statesmen earning an at large playoff bid. Hobart will have to win out, going 9-1 and hope Union loses also, or they are guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the third season in a row. That said this was a game they had to win, especially with defending LL champ RPI (4-1, 1-0) coming to Geneva this weekend and then having to play Ithaca  (4-0, 1-0) on the road (where Hobart has never won) the following week.

What made this game hard to watch is how much Union HC Jeff Behrman out-coached the Hobart side all game, using Hobart's defensive scheme against them and taking advantage of the now obvious holes in the Statesmen's 3-4 approach. With no pressure of any kind of up the middle, the Dutchmen OL had no problem taking the Hobart DL out of the game and the draw play was open all day. SO RB Ike Irabor took advantage of that, cashing in to the tune of 182 rushing yards and two TDs.

Hobart went three and out on their first possession and the defense, which played off in fear of getting beat deep by SO WR Andre Ross, Jr. gave up several underneath routes and draws as Union covered 82 yards in 13 plays to start the game.

The Hobart offense - with a SR QB, SR WR corps, TE and RB were unable to provide any leadership as the OL struggled badly against the Dutchmen, allowing four sacks and eight TFL. HC Kevin DeWall '00 runs a tight ship, but some of the player attrition because of that demanding style has cost Hobart a lot of size, experience and depth on the OL, and that was noticeably a problem Saturday.

The Statesmen offense finished the game 2-15 on third downs and in the last three games is only averaging 14.33 PPG. This isn't a new problem as Hobart is 18-65 (27.69%) on third down this season. While FY RB Rayshawn Boswell has shined at times (he scored Hobart's only TD Saturday), the use and effectiveness of the run game has been inconsistent at best.

The one bright spot remains the defense which only allowed 16 points, including a FR by SO LB Dante Kimbraugh which led to the Boswell TD, in the loss. Players like SO LB Brian Aguilar and SR OLB David McCarthy had solid games, tallying 13 and 11 tackles each. McCarthy appeared badly injured in the first half - a stretcher was brought out as a precaution - but he miraculously popped up off the turf and was back in the game not long afterward. That's toughness.

Unfortunately, the quick McCarthy recovery was really the only good thing that happened for Hobart in the game (FY TE Mike Zaccone was also hurt in the opening drive and was seen in crutches not long after, hoping for the best there). Sure, the Statesmen had a few chances, but a combination of bad luck and poor execution at QB and the OL doomed them. A pick six on a poor read and throw by SR QB Ryan Hofmann put them down 14-0 and then, with a chance to make it at least a 4 point game just before halftime, SO QB David Krewson saw a sure completion on 3rd and 6 slip through his WR's fingers, bounce off his chest and into the waiting hands of Union LB Evan Gilland once again (he scored on the pick six and will probably be your LL DPOTW).

Inexplicably the defense went into prevent mode with just over 100 seconds to go in the half and Irabor took another draw play to the house, giving Union a 20-7 halftime lead. That 14 or let's say 10-point swing (it's realistic to think JR PK Kyle Hackett would have been able to convert a FG from the Union 16, even though he missed a 44-yard attempt earlier) basically was the final nail in the coffin.

The second half saw Union only needing a FG to ice the game as the Statesmen offense simply couldn't get it together. Their possessions ended with a punt, punt, INT (the third of the game), downs, downs and end of game.

Ironically, after beating them 33-7 in Week 1, it's safe to say Brockport, who's won four in a row and controls it's destiny in the E8, is now having a better season so far than the Statesmen. Football can be a cruel and ironic sport.

All Hobart can do now is learn from the hard lessons from this game and hope their next one, which is at home, is better executed. RPI comes in with a lot of confidence, having posted back-to-back 38-0 shutouts, but the Statesmen did beat the Engineers at the Boz back in 2017. That game was when RPI gave now JR QB George Marinopoulos his first real playing time. He's gone 19-4 as a starter since.

That's about all I have on this game. I'll have a preview for the RPI game up later this week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart.

Week 5 - Union Game Preview

The 21st ranked Hobart College Statesmen will open up Liberty League conference play Saturday against a familiar foe, the Union College Dutchmen. Both Hobart (4-0) and Union (3-0) enter this game undefeated for the first time since the 2005 season. The Dutchmen won that contest, 28-18, and as a one-loss team in 2006, handed the Statesmen their first loss of the 2006 regular season, 31-14. Those two seasons were the last times Union won the LL title.

Hobart barely trails the Dutchmen, 49-51-2 in the all-time series and I believe both are each other's second longest standing rival, this being the 103rd meeting (if my math is right). This season Union has beaten three teams by a combined 123-31 margin. To be fair, the combined W/L record of these opponents is only 1-11. Not exactly a murderer's row by any stretch.

Last season the Statesmen rallied from two 11-point and one 9-point deficits to comeback and clip Union by a score of 29-28. Then JR TE A.J. Perlino tied the game by making a 16-yard TD catch from JR QB Ryan Hofmann with 8:28 remaining, capping a five play, 85-yard drive. SO PK Kyle Hackett successfully converted the PAT, giving Hobart the lead. SO FS Cal Sullivan made one of the biggest plays of his young career not long after, intercepting a SO QB Will Bellamy pass at the Hobart five yard line. The offense would take the field and burn the clock, basically leaving the Dutchmen with only 25 seconds left at their own 30. The clock would run out on Union and Hobart won the game, 29-28.

Scouting the Dutchmen

I'm taking a bit of a critical stance on some the upcoming stats based on the teams Union has played so far to date. Union handled what appears to be a down Springfield College team in Week 3, 27-17, but HC Jeff Behrman was lukewarm post game in assessing how he felt the Dutchmen played that day.

That said we know Union has a potent offense, led by JR QB Will Bellamy who is more than capable. This season the Louisiana native has passed for over 500 yards, with a completion percentage of nearly 70%, finding the end zone seven times in three games.

His top target is once again SO WR Andre Ross, Jr. (last season's LL ROTY) who leads the Dutchmen with just under 200 receiving yards and four TDs. SR WR Griffin Beal however has been Bellamy's favorite, with a team high 13 catches, including one TD. SO RB Ike Irabor leads the ground attack with nearly 300 rush yards, but has seen his classmate SO RB Joseph Ferriera score two more TDs (for a total of 5) than him so far this season.

The Union OL is made up of three JRs - C Ryan Ehrets, LG Chris Katchadurian and RG Teddy Hood - and two underclassmen. Ehrets was a first-team all-conference selection last season. SO OL Tim Driscoll is the LT, who's a tall (6'6") but not that big (240 lbs) weight wise. The newest addition is FY RT Max Langsam who may lack experience, but isn't lacking in size standing at 6' 4", 290 lbs.

Defensively the Dutchmen run a similar 3-4 scheme that we're seeing Hobart execute so well. Last season Union's defense was a strength of the team, and given the (lack of) competition played to date, it's hard to get a real gauge on how strong this unit is, or not?

One player who is definitely strong, is JR LB Colin Lama who's off to an impressive start this season, leading the Dutchmen with 26 tackles, including 3.5 TFL. SR DE Vincent DiCaterino is the team's best pass rusher, tallying six TFL to go with two sacks and one INT. JR NT Daniel Gioioso is a stocky, but solid run-stuffer, who earned second team all-conference recognition last season. This year he's had 12 stops to go with 2.5 TFL.

SR PK Will Halpin, III handles most of the kicking duties for Union, including FGs (he converted a 24 yder against Anna Maria), punts and KOs. None of Halpin's six punts have been returned this season, three getting FC and the other three being downed inside the opponent's 20-yard line by the return team. He averages almost 55 yards on KOs, but he's had one TB and two of his KOs went out-of-bounds, so keep an eye out for angle kicks. For some reason FY LB Miguel Rodriguez has handled PAT duties, making 15-16. Halpin has kicked and converted only one PAT this season.

FY WR Kevin Rabacs and JR S Mark Zazzaro have split KOR duties, averaging about 25 YPKOR between them. JR WR Justin Faia has averaged about nine yards on PRs.

Keys to the Game:

1. Run and Protect the Football - The Pride (1-3) rushed for over 200 yards but committed three turnovers - an INT and two fumbles - back in Week 3 against the Dutchmen. The Statesmen returned to a more balanced attack against Montclair last weekend, rushing and passing for almost exactly 150 yards each. The Union secondary is mostly untested, seeing only 57 pass attempts in three games (by comparison Hobart opponents have thrown the ball 146 times over four games). A strong run game by the Statesmen can open up the passing game via play-action, especially given the depth and experience of Hobart's WR and TE group. SR QB Ryan Hofmann is struggling a bit with accuracy, with a sub-47% completion mark, but he's hit on long plays several times this season. The Statesmen will have chances to take some deep shots, but they need to lure the Dutchmen in by feeding SR RB Brian Haeffner and/or getting some RPO play calls in using SO QB David Krewson to throw off the Union defense. Speaking of defense, Hobart should constantly be looking to strip would-be Union runners, as the Dutchmen have fumbled five times already this season.

2. Embattle Bellamy - The Union QB has yet to throw any INTs this season and the Dutchmen OL has only allowed two QB sacks. If Hobart can chip away at limiting the Union offensive possessions (the Dutchmen are averaging close to 34 minutes TOP-wise) and pressure Bellamy into mistakes, the offense can capitalize and take what's likely to be a loud and full home crowd out of the game. Last season the Statesmen defense forced Bellamy to only hit on 50% of his attempts, sacked him three times and intercepted him twice.

3. Deal With Beal, but Don't Let Ross Over the Top - Ross, Jr. is averaging nearly 30 YPC this season, including a long of 58 yards. He is a legitimate deep threat the Statesmen secondary needs to neutralize. They failed to do so last season as he racked up six catches for 152 yards and a TD. Beal will get catches here and there, but Hobart has to watch Ross, Jr. from getting behind them.

Prediction:

This will be the best defense the Union offense will have faced this season, no doubt about that. The initial drives and series will set the tone in what I think may end up in a lower scoring, more defensive battle than what we saw last season. Union's defense is a bit of a mystery, so the Statesmen may need some time to execute their game plan and find the best match-ups to exploit. I do think the Union secondary could be a weak link.

I also feel like if Hobart can run the clock and avoid mistakes (e.g., Union is particularly penalty prone, already being flagged 20 times for almost -200 yards or basically -66 YPG), the Statesmen can get a hard-fought road win against this undefeated Dutchmen squad.

I like Hobart to win it in a lower-scoring affair, 24-14.

Thanks for reading as always, and go 'Bart!

#22/25 Statesmen Pick Off Red Hawks On Homecoming, 16-3

The #22/25 Hobart College Statesmen defeated the Montclair State Red Hawks today at Boswell Field on Homecoming and Family Weekend, 16-3. The Halftime-Adjustment Hobart defense intercepted JR QB Ja'Quill Burch three times in the second half and forced a fumble to help the Statesmen to a 4-0 run in OOC play. The loss drops Montclair State to 1-2 on the season.

The See Saw Statesmen had some struggles with some more bad snaps and shaky passing plays to start the game. To their credit, the OL did a great job in the run game, churning out 152 rush yards and didn't allow a QB sack. SR QB Ryan Hofmann finished the game going for 120 yards and SR WR/P John DelliSanti completed a nifty 29-yard pass on a fake punt - which came just after Coach DeWall '00 called a great fake on a 51-yard FG attempt that got called back on a penalty.

Speaking of penalties, the officials threw a lot of flags today, including eight on Montclair for -75 yards. Hobart was the more disciplined side, only getting flagged three times for -15 yards.

Early on the Hobart had to settle on a couple of JR PK Kyle Hackett FGs and took a narrow 6-3 lead into halftime. Hackett (who is now in the Top 10 all-time scorers in Hobart history with 169 points) added a third FG, a 25-yarder, to push the Statesmen's lead to 9-3 with 7:29 to go in the third. Although they threatened throughout the game, neither team could find the end zone until the fourth quarter when SR RB and co-captain Brian Haeffner got his first TD of the season. Haeffner's run capped an eight play, 69-yard drive which included a potential game changing pick six by Montclair. The Red Hawks were called for a defensive penalty, negating the TD and Hobart never looked back. Haeffner finished the day with 90 rushing yards.

The Statesmen defense was once again led by JR OLB Emmett Forde with an 11 tackle, 1.5 TFL and FF game. While the Hobart D didn't get any sacks, they were the MVPs with a six TFL, four turnover day. JR CB Jared Leake had two INTs in the game to go with five solo stops. SR FS Andrew Koonz had the other INT late in the fourth quarter, all but sealing the game for Hobart.

The win sets up a high stakes LL opener between the Statesmen and long-time foe, Union College (3-0). The Dutchmen, like Montclair, will have had an extra week to prepare for the game which is slated for next Saturday in Schenectady.

I'll have more on that one early next week.

Thanks again for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 4 - Montclair State / Homecoming Game Preview

The #25 Hobart College Statesmen (or #22, depending on which Top 25 poll you follow) will wrap up OOC play this Saturday in one of the more highly anticipated match-ups in the East Region. The Montclair State University Red Hawks, who were picked to compete for the NJAC title this season, come into Geneva looking to keep the momentum of a Week 2 win after getting stunned, 34-21, by Southern Virginia (2-0) in Week 1.

MSU (1-1) had a solid 28-11 win over Salve Regina (1-2) in Week 2 and an extra week to prepare for Hobart. The Statesmen (3-0), who needed a last second FG to put away their NJAC cohort, Rowan (0-3), got basically zero credit for that win last Saturday. Skeptics expected a more one-sided game and so it seems like the Statesmen mostly made the Top 25 based on nine or so losses other teams had between the 10-25 spots in the poll. Still, the pollsters are giving Hobart respect based on the schedule played to date, and deservedly so, especially compared to other East Region and LL schools. That said, a strong win over the Red Hawks, who have never faced off against the Statesmen, could get the doubters on the Hobart bandwagon.

Scouting the Red Hawks

A thorough look at the MSU season to date can be seen here.

My main take-away from that article is that the Red Hawks believed a little too much of their hype going into Week 1 against what's normally a doormat SoVA team. Clearly the loss has woken them up, and while they didn't beat Salve too soundly, it was a win they should have earned and did.

MSU's success really rides on the arm of JR QB Ja'Quill Burch, who was my preseason pick for NJAC OPOTY. Against SoVA however, he was turnover prone, throwing three INTs. The OL held their own giving up a sack and 2 TFL. The Red Hawks OL is an experienced group with four starters back from last season, led by SR OL Stephen Gaffney. Gaffney was named to the Preseason D3football.com All-American third team. A sixth blocker is JR TE Jack Welti, who at 6'5", 235lbs. is a big target, but so far hasn't caught a pass this season.

The Red Hawks defense by comparison sacked the SoVA QB once but had eight TFL. The longest drive the Knights had that day was only 35 yards, not including a 43-yard KO return for a TD. Basically everything that could have gone wrong for MSU in that game did and so their defensive stats are a bit skewed because of it.

Burch would rebound against Salve, passing for 292 yards and three TDs. He was moderately accurate, going 12-22 (54%) with an INT, but the passes he connected on went for big gains against the Seahawk's defense. The OL struggled a bit more in this game, giving up two sacks and 10 TFL, which probably contributed to Burch's accuracy numbers.

Burch has three WRs he's mostly distributed the ball to including SR WR Kason Campbell (7-183, 1 TD), JR WR Karsen Johnson (5-142, 2 TDs) and SR WR Mike Manzo-Lewis (6-118, 1 TD). JR RB Craig Merkle has rushed for 171 yards on 38 carries and a TD. His YPR stats are bolstered due to a 71 run he had for a TD late in the game against Salve. SR RB Ralph McLean has been more of a short yardage specialist, with 16 carries for 42 yards.

The Red Hawks defense is led by SO DB Zack Zaccone who's tallied 19 tackles, two TFL and one INT. SO DB Brennan Ray leads the team with 1.5 sacks and 3.5 TFL (which leads me to believe the Statesmen need to keep a blocker in the backfield to ward off incoming blitzes from the secondary).

MSU runs a variation of the 3-3-5 stack defense which Hobart has struggled with in the past. It will be interesting to see if the Statesmen stick with the pass-centric attack they used against Rowan or if we may see a return to some balance? I'm expecting limited rushing attempts once again as the Red Hawks are tough to run on, allowing only 88.5 YPG, 2.3 YPR and a single rushing TD in two games.

On special teams the Red Hawks have tried two punters with limited success, averaging under 25 YPP with two blocks. This could an opportunity Hobart can exploit Saturday. Their punt return average is negative, so not much to worry about there, but the KO return stats aren't bad - averaging over 21 YPKO. Campell, one of the WRs, has been successful here, returning three kicks for 80 yards with a long of 38. SO PK Anthony Marinelli has averaged 42.5 YPKO and has gone 1-2 on FGs so far this season. His long of 22 initially made me think MSU would be more aggressive play-calling wise inside the opponent's 30 or 20-yard line, but so far they've only attempted one 4th-down conversion this season.

Jon McGriff P'15 will be leading the charge from the stands Saturday

Keys to the Game:

1. Focus on the Fundamentals: Low, bad snaps, turnovers and penalties have to be cut down. While the latter hasn't been an issue so far for the Statesmen, last weekend Hobart almost lost the game because of the former three. Assuming he's back at center, JR OL Alex Lanzana needs to deliver a better ball to SR QB Ryan Hofmann to give him the extra time he needs to see the field and not force passes like he had to last weekend.

2. Don't Get Burned - The Statesmen are still giving up more passing yards than they are gaining, but the good news is, they've only allowed three passing TDs so far this season. Burch will look for deep pass plays against the Hobart secondary, so it'll be incumbent on the Statesmen DL and LBs to create pressure up front. The MSU OL has allowed only three sacks in two games but they have allowed 12 TFLs. Hobart has 10 sacks on the season to date to go with 29 TFL, so they appear to have an edge there. While the Hawks had success with the long ball against Salve, the MSU red zone offense has not been very good overall so far this season. They have only scored twice on five trips inside the red zone, one TD and a 22-yard FG. By comparison, Hobart's defense has allowed four TDs on 12 trips into their red zone this season.

3. Special Teams - The Statesmen have a clear advantage on special teams and could use a play like the one JR FS Cal Sullivan made here in Week 2 (see below). I had an exchange with SLU HC Dan Puckhaber prior to Week 3 and encouraged him to blitz the Mustangs since it helped Hobart in the second half of their game. He smartly replied, "[Two] blocked punts helped too." MSU has given up a couple of punt blocks already. Let's see if the Statesmen can get at least one more on Saturday.

4. Win on 3rd-Down: The Red Hawks are making and allowing 3rd-down conversions 38% of the time so far this season. The Statesmen on the other hand have only converted at a 27% vs. 40% rate. The Hobart offense needs to do a better job extending drives. While the Hobart D has held up their end of the bargain - holding opponents to only 16 PPG, including an impressive run in the final 13 minutes of the Rowan game where the Statesmen held the Profs 25 yards on 15 plays - the Statesmen defense has been on the field for an average of 35+ minutes per game which isn't a sustainable model, in my opinion.

Prediction:

This should be the biggest crowd of the season given the Homecoming and Family Weekend festivities. I hope to hear and see a packed Boz (and maybe a game video that has real-time and tracked audio that matches the visual...?), which should give the Statesmen an extra boost. I think this will be a tough fight, but I think some of the intangibles from the defense and special teams, with a better executed offensive game-plan, can win the day for Hobart.

I'll take the Statesmen to win and go to 4-0 by a score of 27-14.

Keep an eye out for In the D3FB Huddle's Week 3 recap show coming out later today.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!