It will be a battle of unbeaten teams when the seventh ranked Hobart College Statesmen (12-0) faces off against the fourth ranked University of Saint Thomas (12-0) in St. Paul, Minnesota. The Tommies are the champions of the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (MIAC) and is a program that has become one of Division III’s best in the past few seasons. UST is making their fourth consecutive NCAA playoff and national quarterfinal run and have amassed an impressive 48-4 (.923) record since 2009. The Tommies advanced to the National Semifinals in 2011, losing 20-0 to the eventual National Champion University of Wisconsin-Whitewater.
UST is a young squad and has suffered a few injuries this season leaving some to say they are more vulnerable than they have been in prior years. The Tommies had to come back from a 14-0 deficit against the seventeenth ranked Elmhurst College Blue Jays (10-2) last Saturday, using an 86 yard fumble return for a touchdown (TD) to spark the team to a hard fought 24-17 win.
UST is lead by SO QB Matt O’Connell who has thrown for 2253 yards (204.8 YPG) and 22 TDs compared to 10 interceptions (INT). O’Connell is undefeated as the Tommies’ starter and is a mobile QB, rushing for 719 yards (65.4 YPG) this season and three TDs. O’Connell’s favorite targets are Dan Ferrazzo (42 catches for 622 yards and four TDs) and Logan Marks (38 catches for 440 yards and six receiving TDs).
O’Connell is protected by 6’ 3” 304 lbs SR OL Curtis James, a finalist for the prestigious Gagliardi Trophy (sort of like the DIII version of the Heisman Trophy except it factors in a lot more than just football stats) which presented annually to the “outstanding football player in NCAA Division III who exhibits excellence in athletics, academics and community service.” The Tommies’ OL has only allowed ten sacks all season and has helped open holes for RB Brenton Braddock to rush for 914 yards and 12 TDs.
In spite of averaging an impressive 36.2 PPG on offense, much like Hobart, the UST calling card is on the defensive side of the ball. The Tommies are especially effective stopping the run, holding opponents to a mere 75.9 YPG. This excellence on the DL has forced opponents to pass, and UST has given up over 200 YPG through the air, but only 14 total passing TDs in 12 games.
The Tommies’ “D” is lead by SR LB Mike Valesano and JR OLB Tremayn Williams with 46 and 45.5 total tackles, respectively. UST has sacked opposing QB 38 times on the season for -219 yards and has 79 TFL for -336 yards.
Keys to the Game:
1. Win the line of scrimmage (LOS) – Both teams boast excellent rushing defenses. The Tommies have held opponents to 75.92 YPG and Hobart isn’t that far behind with an 88.08 YPG mark. Elmhurst did have a good running game thanks to having one of the best overall RBs in all of DIII (Scottie Williams) and gained 180 rushing yards last weekend. Reviewing the Blue Jay game tape and plan may show
Coach DeWall some gaps on the UST 30-stack defense that the Hobart OL can try and exploit with
JR RB Steve Webb and
SR RB Bobby Dougherty. The weather is looking cold (high of 44) and potentially wet (30% chance of “few showers”). A light (12 mph) wind will probably make it feel much colder. If the Hobart OL can keep the Tommie pass rush at bay (they, like the Statesmen average over three sacks a game) and the rain holds off, either
SR QB Nick Strang or
SR QB Kelly Olney may look to test UST downfield. The Statesmen will likely have to trust in secondary options in the passing game as
SR WR Junior Woodard will likely draw Tommies’ best cover man and/or double coverage down field. Olney and/or Strang will need
SO TE Mike Berkowitz and
JR WR Yosh Karbowniczak to come up with some key catches to keep the UST defense honest. Although UST is on another level, this game could play out similarly to when Hobart struggled on the road against Saint Lawrence. A long road trip to a wet field and a tough rushing defense forced the offense to switch gears. Strang would go on to have what I thought was his best overall passing game of his SR year, going 15 of 18 for 233 yards and three passing TDs. Conversely on the defensive end,
SR DT Nick Auriemma and
FY Mark Guarino-Hyde will be keys to disrupting a big Tommie OL and freeing up
SR LBs Andrew Klindera and
Nick Zapp to make plays at the LOS. Given O’Connell’s mobility, Hobart will need to stay in their lanes and not over pursue. The latter killed them against SO QB Connor Eck in the Union game, so I hope the Statesmen “stay home” and avoid falling victim to naked boot legs and other plays on the outside.
2. Road Warriors – Hobart has never won a NCAA playoff game away from Boswell Field. The Tommies are especially tough to beat at home going 32-2 under Head Coach Caruso (who played at Ithaca and beat the Statesmen twice during his “Bomber years”) including 15 in a row. The Tommies have outscored opponents early and often during the regular season. However, they found themselves down 14-0 early to Elmhurst and needed two 80+ yard plays (a fumble recovery and long pass) to get back into the game. The Statesmen’s early ability to sustain drives and maintain good field position will do a lot of good for their confidence.
3. Third (and fourth) down conversions – Both Hobart and St. Thomas have excellent third down defenses, the Tommies holding opponents to a 28.11 conversion percentage and the Statesmen not far behind at 31.58%. Last week Elmhurst converted over 53% of their third downs (nine of 17) and even went for it four times, converting once, on fourth down.
Coach Cragg has shown little fear of going for it on fourth down, and the Statesmen have a pretty good track record. Hobart has attempted 25 fourth down conversions, making 17 (or 68%) of them. As stated above, field position will also be very important, especially if the defenses run the show and both teams need to relay on their punters. UST has a very good one in Garrett Maloney. He averages over 40 YPP. Karbowniczak’s average dropped slightly to 38.45 YPP after a tough outing in the swirling winds of Saturday’s game vs. Wittenberg. Still a blocked (or shank) punt could really turn the game around for either team. Could a fake be in the game plan? Maybe. The Statesmen have been a lot more conservative in that department of late, most likely due to trust in their defense which has been well earned.
4. Turnovers – It goes without saying that this will be a big, if not the biggest factor, in determining the winner of Saturday’s game. Hobart doesn’t turn over the ball much but they equally don’t create many turnovers either. O’Connell didn’t pass much vs. Elmhurst (only 14 attempts) and was as apt to run with the ball as throw it. If
SO DE Tyre Coleman, JR OLB Devin Worthington and others can get to O’Connell, hopefully they will “play for the ball” and force a fumble (or two). The Hobart secondary has done well coming up with an interception here and there which would be huge against UST.
Prediction:
The Statesmen have had a great run in the 2012 season and the good news is although they are the underdog in this game they also have a good chance of pulling off the upset. Andrew Lovell of D3sports.com did a nice job comparing the similarities and differences of both teams in a D3football.com feature story (check it out at www.d3football.com) earlier today.
I remain cautiously optimistic about Hobart’s chances given the Tommies’ youth. Still, they are clearly the more experienced playoff competitor so you have to give them the edge in that department. The Statesmen do have enough components and are, in my (biased?) opinion a better team than the Elmhurst one that could have upended UST last weekend. If the Hobart defense can hold the Tommies to under 21 points, the Statesmen can win. UST is virtually unbeaten in games when they score 21 or more.
I will go out on a limb and predict a close 21-17 win for the Statesmen. If Hobart falls Saturday it will be disappointing but it wouldn’t detract from one of, if not the best, season in Statesmen football history.
The game will kick off at 12 PM CT / 1 PM ET. WEOS FM and Ted Baker will have the Hobart call at www.weos.org and information on the webcast and related live stats will be on www.hwsathletics.com. For those going to the game, the Hobart Alumni Office has organized a get together Friday night at “Champps” bar in the Sibley Mall Plaza. A tailgate at “Purple on the Plaza” starts at 10:30 AM local time on game day.
No matter what the outcome, it’s the biggest game yet, so
GO ‘BART!
