Union Game Preview - It's Now or Never for Hobart

The Hobart Statesmen (2-2, 0-1) host league rival Union College (2-1, 2-0) in what amounts to a must win game. Union has had the Statesmen’s number as of late, defeating Hobart three times in the past four seasons, including last year’s 31-20 victory in Schenectady (a game I had the pleasure of attending in person, at least for the first half). The Dutchmen lead the all-time series 50-41-2. Union and Hobart first squared off in 1896, making the Dutchmen the second oldest active Statesmen rival. The Statesmen’s last victory over the Garnet was back on November 3, 2007 when Hobart prevailed 30-20 at Union’s Frank Bailey Field.

This season Union has several key offensive players for the Statesmen defense to stop, but none that have given them as many fits as SR RB Chris Coney. Coney has burned the Statesmen for a grand total of 357 yards rushing and four TDs in his career. Coney leads the LL in rushing with 392 yards this season (130.7 YPG/average). JR QB Drew Connolly is 2-0 versus Hobart and has passed for 388 yards and five TDs against the Statesmen defense over that same time period.

Connolly is currently third in the LL in passing (154.7 YPG/average) and fourth in total offense (179 YPG/average). The JR QB has passed for 464 yards (34 completions on 75 attempts) with four TDs and 3 INTs. Connolly’s favorite target is the fleet footed SR WR Justin Gallo, the same Gallo who smoked the Hobart secondary for three TDs and 268 yards in last year’s match up. This year, Gallo has collected 15 passes for 233 yards and one TD. Gallo’s numbers make him the leader in receptions and receiving yards (77.7 YPG/average) per game in the LL. Gallo’s younger brother, JR WR Connor, has caught eight balls for 135 yards and two receiving TDs.

Coney eventually broke an otherwise stout WPI (3-2, 1-1) defense to the tune of 197 rushing yards (the 15th time Coney has broken the 100 yard milestone in his career) and combined with Connolly for four second half touchdowns to help Union rally back from a 14-0 third quarter deficit to defeat the Engineers 25-17 in Worcester last Saturday.

On defense the Dutchmen are lead by a duo of LBs SR AJ Rocchio (27 tackles, one TFL and one sack) and JR Steve Modliszewski (21 tackles, 1.5 TFL) and SR S Anthony Cassese (24 tackles, 1 INT).

Keys to the Game:
1. Contain Coney – The SR RB from Florida is the spark that fuels the Dutchmen offense. If the Statesmen are going to still be relevant in the LL race, they need to control Coney, tackle at first contact and penetrate the backfield much better than they did against Saint Lawrence.

2. Put Pressure on Connolly – Last weekend Connolly struggled mightily against a tough WPI defense and was held to a mere 52 yards passing, including two INTs. Hobart did not get any meaningful pass rush going against SLU (0 sacks) and it cost them – particularly on third and fourth downs – in key spots in the game. Although Hobart’s JR CB Drake Woodard tallied an interception against the Saints, the Statesmen failed to capitalize on that opportunity. If Hobart has success bottling up Coney, I am not sure if Connolly can win the game for the Dutchmen – the only caveat being if Gallo goes off again beats the secondary deep like he did three times in 2009.

3. Avoid (all those big) mistakes – Hobart has killed themselves the past two games losing turnover battles (-2, not including the blocked punt, vs. SJFC and -4 vs. SLU) and have been flagged 10 times for 115 yards over that same time period. Clearly the Statesmen can’t afford to make that many mistakes and expect to defeat the better teams in their league or otherwise. Hopefully Hobart has learned from the past two weeks and will play smarter against the Dutchmen – not to mention recalling the blown coverage that Gallo capitalized on en route to last year’s 268 yard and three TD performances.

4. Better play calling and execution – The Statesmen offense didn’t do itself any favors with the play calling in the SLU game. While I am willing to give the Saints defense the credit they deserve in bottling up FY RB Steven Webb, Hobart really should have moved away from the shotgun formation, especially in the second half. Vella is not really cut out to be a pure drop back passer like his predecessors (e.g., Doyle ‘09, Strom ‘08 and Mizro ‘07) so I would recommend his taking more snaps directly behind center and working short to intermediate routes to his RBs, FBs (FY Juan O’Farrill had a key reception that teed up the Webb TD in the fourth quarter) and WRs given he under threw several longer ones in last Saturday’s contest en route to his four interceptions. It would also be nice to see Hobart get some TE play going but it doesn’t appear that offensive coordinator Kevin DeWall ’00 has much confidence in his TEs other than blocking. So far Statesmen TEs have only one catch on the season - JR TE Greg Clifford tallied a five yard catch against Dickinson in the season opener.

5. Get on the board and go for the kill – The Union defense has not allowed a TD in over 90 minutes of football, so Hobart needs to be aggressive on defense to capitalize on Dutchmen turnovers as well as punch in some offensive scores early to get their confidence back after last weekend’s debacle in Canton. In the recent past it has been the Dutchmen who have found ways to win in these slug fests. Hobart needs to take a page from that book and find a way to put the game away if and when they have the opportunity to do so.

Prediction:

I am in a bit of quandary here given after the last two weeks, I am now unsure which Hobart team is going to show up on Saturday? The team from the first two games played virtually mistake-free, team and opportunistic football; making plays on all facets (i.e., offense, defense and special teams) of the game. The last two games the Statesmen have been the complete opposites of the team from Games 1 and 2.

That said, Hobart has not lost three straight since a similar skid ended the 1997 season when the Statesmen fell to Ithaca, Hartwick and RPI – the latter two by a mere three combined points. The Statesmen have traditionally played the Dutchmen tough at the Boz but actually haven’t beaten Union at home since 2004. That game was a thrilling 33-27 comeback and overtime victory that clinched Hobart’s and the first ever Liberty League championship behind a record setting 339 passing yards and five passing TDs by then SO QB Shawn Mizro.

Union is always a tough out, but they have had the Statesmen’s number as of late and I am certain they probably relish the opportunity to potentially provide the proverbial knockout punch to one of their primary league rivals, on Hobart’s home court no less.

Given Statesmen’s struggles and inconsistent play I am reticent to pick Hobart in this one (and trust me, this pains me a lot). That said I am going to have to swallow my Statesmen pride and pick Union 28-24.

Hobart has the most to lose this Saturday and hopefully they’ll play like their lives depend on it (because let’s be honest, in the event Hobart loses, it’s basically game over for the Statesmen for 2010). A loss in this game would certainly mean another year without a NCAA or post season berth, unless budgets (and final season records) provide Hobart with a possible ECAC game (i.e., the DIII equivalent to the NIT or “lower tier bowl game”).

If Hobart can win the game, they remain statistically viable to regain the LL title via various tie breaker scenarios down the road.

My classmate and friend, Matt Smith ’94 will be making the trip to Hobart all the way from Korea so I hope he brings some luck with him from the Far East. My colleague and co-host of “In the HuddLLe” Frank Rossi will be on the call for WABY AM, but I’ll probably have to go with Ted Baker and the WEOS broadcast as usual.

If the Statesmen ever (desperately) needed a win, it’s Saturday. Kickoff is at 12 PM ET.

Until then, good luck and go ‘Bart!