Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Dickinson Game Preview

Hobart will face a Dickinson team looking to rebound from last season’s disappointing 3-7 overall record, which included no wins on their home turf. Unfortunately it sounds like the rest of the Centennial Conference (CC) feels that it will be more of the same for the Red Devils picking them to finish 7th in the 2011 preseason CC poll.

Some of the concerns in Carlisle have to do with starting a rookie QB. SO Todd Smolinsky won the starting job over SR QB Ricky Martz, Jr. in the offseason, but is very inexperienced. Martz started five games at QB in 2010 (and scored Dickinson’s lone TD in last year’s 38-7 defeat at Boswell Field) while Smolinsky has only 13 career pass attempts to his resume (he completed six). Only five other starters (three OL, TE and FB) return from an offensive unit that averaged 22.7 points and 319.6 yards per game in 2010. Smolinsky’s most likely targets will be SR WR Cam Di Fede (13 catches for 214 yards in 2010) and SR TE Tyler Rosa (seven catches, 16 YPC average).

In my opinion, the biggest question mark for Dickinson is who will start at RB? RB Greg Lord, who rushed 39 times for 252 yards and three TDs in his career vs. Hobart, and RB Tim Smith (523 yards on 126 attempts, including 5 TDs in 2010) graduated last spring. SO FB Mike Capone and SR RB Mike Shimkin each ran for only 122 yards last season as backups.

On defense the Devils are most experienced in the secondary, welcoming back all three starters, SR FS Scott Sullivan (84 tacles and three INTs), SR CB Andrew Fink (58 tackles) and JR CB Pat McBreen (26 tackles). SR LB Julian Rosen (61 tackles and 2 INTs), SR DT Andrew Downs and SR DT Ross Johnson will lead the interior defense. Dickinson surrendered 29 PPG, which ranked 8th in the CC, and was their worst showing in that category since 1983.

On special teams Dickinson welcomes back SR P David London. He averaged 39.3 yards on 18 punts last fall, eight of those landing inside the opponent’s 20 yard line. The Devils will need to find a replacement to graduated Gordon Craig, Dickinson’s all-time kick-scorer.

Keys to the Game:

1. Ease Strang into the game (i.e., RUN THE BALL): Dickinson ranked 8th in the CC in rushing defense, allowing opponents 167.3 YPG and surrendering over 200 yards rushing in five games in 2010. Given Hobart is returning nearly its entire OL and backfield intact, I hope Coach DeWall will refrain from his usual pass first approach and let JR QB Nick Strang hand the ball off to SO RB Steven Webb, JR RB Bobby Dougherty and SO FB Juan O’Farrill.

2. Pressure Smolinsky: The Devils will look to test the Statesmen’s inexperienced defensive ends and OLB’s with off tackle plays and bubble screens given the Hobart’s aggressive blitz schemes. If the Statesmen can protect the three gaps, it will force Dickinson to pass, opening up opportunities for interceptions by the Hobart defense. Hobart’s opening score in 2010 came off a Reggie Robinson interception early in the first quarter, setting the Statesmen offense up on their 48 yard line.

3. Follow last year's script (make big plays): Last season Drake Woodard scored a TD on a blocked punt and a 90 yard Steven Webb kickoff return for a TD.  Yosh Karbownicz even converted a 4th down on a 17 yard run off a fake punt. Also, in contrast to what occurred later in the year, Hobart won the turnover battle, collecting four takeaways (one fumble, two INTs and the aforementioned blocked kick) and committing none (the Dickinson game was the only one in 2010 where the Statesmen did not commit a turnover).

Prediction:

While Hobart also needs to rebuild from a disappointing 2010 season, they have more and stronger players coming back in 2011 than Dickinson in my opinion. Although Hobart’s last win in Carlisle was in 2005, I believe this Statesmen team will take control of the game given their superior personnel. That said I am going to pick Hobart to come away a 35-7 victory.

Tune into http://www.weos.org/ WEOS 89.7 FM to hear Ted Baker's call of the game.  Go 'Bart!

Friday, August 26, 2011

2011 Season Outlook


A few pundits have Hobart as the league favorite this fall given the large number of returning players from last year's team.  At the end of 2010, I initially liked Rochester as a potential “preseason favorite” given how they finished the 2010 season (4 straight wins) and their returning roster.  I am coming around to viewing Hobart in this regard based on taking into account their large number of key contributors and in taking a closer look at the league.

Still, the long gap between the first and second games, the play of Nick Strang (is he a “one hit wonder” or a viable starter who can perform at a Doyle/Strom/Mizro level?) and the overall average play by the defense in 2010 gives me pause.

I’ve read elsewhere that others predict a 6-2 record for Hobart given the aforementioned questions. 6-2, while not a bad year, could eliminate the Statesmen from NCAA consideration for the third consecutive season – barring going 6-0 in the LL (and the accompanying NCAA automatic bid) or 5-1 via tiebreakers. 6-2 would also be good enough for an ECAC bid (in theory), but it would depend upon the other eligible teams.

At first blush I see Hobart probably beating Dickinson (losses to graduation, new QB and RB, still rebuilding), SLU (uncertainty at QB, revenge factor), USMMA (new QB, weak rush and red-zone defense), WPI (questionable passing game, last in LL in red-zone offense) and RPI (many losses to graduation, new coaching staff/scheme).

Question marks surround the SJFC (lost a lot on the OL, new QB, so they potentially could have a “down year”), Union (lost RB Chris Coney to graduation, but has had Hobart’s number of late, last year notwithstanding) and Rochester (ended 2010 on a 4-0 run, have a lot of players returning in 2011) match ups. That said I could see Hobart winning or losing all three of those contests based on a number of factors.

Thus I am going to play it safe and also predict a 6-2 season for Hobart. Even if the Statesmen don’t struggle with the turnovers and mental mistakes that plagued them in 2010, Hobart has not gone undefeated in the league since 2004.

In case you were wondering, the last undefeated Statesmen team was in 1957 (that team, which featured Mr. Garry Mendez II '58 went 6-0).  The last Hobart team to go 8-0 was in 1954.
 
Coming up next week will be a preview of the Dickinson game, ITH info and more. 
 
Go 'Bart!

Friday, August 19, 2011

2011 Hobart Preseason Preview - Part IV (the schedule)

9/3/11 @ Dickinson College – Hobart will open its 118th season of football in Carlisle, PA. This will be the 20th consecutive season opener between the Statesmen and the Red Devils. Dickinson leads the all-time series by a 10-9-1* margin. Last season Hobart hosted the Devils hoping to avenge one of their worst offensive games from 2009 (and their lowest scoring output since 1991!). The Statesmen were vindicated by jumping out to a 17-0 halftime score and adding 21 more points in the 3rd quarter en route to a convincing 38-7 win. Although Dickinson actually outgained the Statesmen in total yardage, most of their success came in the fourth quarter against the Hobart reserves. Dickinson finished their 2010 campaign with a 3-7 mark (3-6, 8th place in Centennial Conference).

9/24/11 @ Saint John Fisher College – The Statesmen will have three weeks to prepare for their second game of the season, a road trip to Pittsford, NY, to take on the St. John Fisher Cardinals of the Empire 8 conference. Last season the Cardinals dominated Hobart in virtually every aspect of the game, winning by a score of 34-14 under the lights in Geneva on Homecoming Weekend. Although the Statesmen lead the all-time series by a 10-6 mark, Hobart has not beaten the Cardinals over four straight meetings. The last Statesmen victory dates back to 2001. The only bright spot from last year’s game was a record performance by then-FY RB Steven Webb who racked up 103 rushing and 109 receiving yards and two TDs. Although SJFC’s star QB Tim Bailey (who passed for 248 yards and one TD vs. Hobart that night) has graduated, SR RB FuQuan Borum (who carried 33 times for 180 yards and three TDs) returns. Needless to say Hobart needs to figure out how to slow down Fisher’s potent rushing attack to have a chance in this one. Fisher ended their 2010 campaign with a 9-2 record, tied for second in their conference with a 5-2 mark and a very convincing 56-13 ECAC bowl win over RPI.

10/1/11 Saint Lawrence University – Hobart won’t play its home and league opener until October, but don’t think this date isn’t circled on the Statesmen’s calendars. Hobart saw its longest active winning streak of 18 games broken against the eventual LL champion Saints by a 24-21 mark last season. The Statesmen came back to hold a 21-17 lead with 2:05 to play, but turnovers (five, including two interceptions in the final 102 seconds of the game) and penalties (six for 70 yards) killed the Hobart in this contest and set a dubious precedent for Hobart’s struggles in 2010. SLU ended the season with a 5-6 mark, getting shut out 49-0 to national runner up, Mount Union in the first round of the NCAA playoffs. The Saints struggled out of conference (going 0-5, including the NCAA game) but won the LL thanks to a 5-1 mark in the league.

10/8/11 @ Union  College – Hobart’s first league road game will be against one of its oldest and toughest rivals, Union College. Last season the Statesmen prevailed in an offensive shoot out in double overtime behind the record-setting performance of then-SO QB Nick Strang. Strang filled in for an injured Doug Vella and passed for over 400 yards and tied the al-time Hobart record with five TD passes. He also added 93 rushing yards and the game winning TD. Although he was picked off four times in his debut, it appeared as though Strang was in line to wrest the starting job away from Vella until he was derailed by mononucleosis and didn’t play for the remainder of the season. The win over Union (who holds a 50-43-2* edge in the all-time series) was the first for Hobart since a 30-20 triumph in 2007 (which technically was taken off the record books due to the NCAA infractions, so some will say 2004 was the last "official win"). Union struggled through one of its worst seasons in years, going 2-7 overall and 2-4 in conference. Losing RB Chris Coney to graduation will be tough but I expect the Dutchmen to rebound in 2011.

10/22/11 USMMA – The Statesmen will have another bye week then host the US Merchant Marine Academy for this year’s Homecoming game. Last season Hobart opened this game with 23 unanswered points, but a saw a determined Mariner squad battle back to only lose by a TD, 40-33. Then-SO RB JL Gosselin led the Academy with 110 rushing yards and one TD. Vella had one of his better games of 2010 passing for 305 yards, four TDs and only two INTs. The USMMA finished their 2010 campaign with a 4-6 overall (3-3 LL) record.

10/29/11 @ WPI – The Statesmen will make their longest road trip of the season to Worcester, MA to face the WPI Engineers. Although WPI came into last season’s game as the #1 defense in the league, Hobart little trouble dispatching them, rattling off 24 unanswered points and eventually winning 38-13. WPI finished last in the LL in 2010, going 1-5 in conference and 3-7 overall.

11/5/11 RPI – Senior Day will see Hobart face off against the RPI Engineers looking for some payback after last season’s 24-21 defeat on a last second 34 yard field goal as time expired. Although the Statesmen defense shut down the RPI running game (holding the Engineers to only 79 rushing yards), Hobart fell behind 21-7 in the middle of the third quarter. The Statesmen would rally to tie the game with 1:20 to play, but once again turnovers (two INTs and two fumbles) would haunt Hobart as did poor special teams and defensive play in the final minute of the game. RPI finished second in the LL with a 4-2 mark and ended up 6-4 overall.

11/12/11 @ Rochester – The Statesmen will close out their regular season campaign vying for the Centennial Cup at Rochester. Last season Hobart lost a heart breaker at home on Senior Day, 35-34, in double overtime. Coach Cragg opted to go for the win but the pass from Vella to then-JR Garth Muratori missed its mark sending Hobart to their first loss in the Centennial Cup series (the all-time series is tied at 48-48-7*). This game marked the first time the Yellow Jackets had bested Hobart since a 17-13 win back in 2003. Rochester was 4-5 in 2010 (3-3 in the LL), but was literally two different teams (losing their first five games and winning their final four) over the course of last season.

*I am not factoring in the 2006-07 sanctions in these all-time marks.

Comin' atcha next weekend will be my 2011 season predictions and an update on the fourth season of LL football  talk show "In the HuddLLe". 

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Welcoming the Class of 2015

The Hobart Statesmen will welcome a class of 29 FY student athletes in this fall’s camp. As usual the majority (15) hail from New York State and the Northeast (11 including five from MA, two from PA, and one each from CT, NJ, VT and ME, respectively). For the second year in a row Hobart will have student athletes from the Sunshine State (two). The one first for this year’s team is that the Statesmen have enrolled their only Virginian (football playing anyway), albeit by way of a PG year at Northfield Mount Hermon (MA).  I had posted a few of these earlier in the year including:

FB Dominque Ellis
RB Alex Delany
FB Scott McMorris

SS Matt McGriff
OL Ali Marpet

OL Matt Riggi
DE Tyre Coleman
DT Troy Jackson

I obviously missed many others, but news on DIII “signings” are few and far between. It also appears as though Adam Novak and Tucker Randle either didn’t decide to enroll or opted out of playing football. Brian Kessler is apparently sticking with lacrosse too.

That said a few names that stand out include the aforementioned – Coleman in particular given the Statesmen’s needs at DE – but also several others, namely:

QB Patrick Conlan, son of Penn State and Buffalo Bills linebacker, Shane Conlan
CB Fairi Jackson (Fayetteville, NY PG’d at Kent School)
OL DeAndre’ Smith (from Corcoran who’s 6’3” and 340 lbs - Alex Bell ’05 anyone?!?!?)
DT Raimonn Goddard (from Middletown and comes in at 6’ 3” 280 lbs – that’s “Ryan Aruck ’09 big”).

Of course only time will time how many of these players will make an impact over their Hobart careers. Although this is a ballpark figure, usually about half of a given class will stay on the team all four years. For example, the Class of 2012 had 33 begin with the program in the fall of 2008. This fall 17 of those original 33 (51%) will suit up.

The full Statesmen preseason roster can be found at this link:

http://www.hwsathletics.com/roster.aspx?path=football

I’ll be back in about a week to review the 2011 season. Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Hobart 2011 Preseason Preview - Pt III (Defense & Special Teams)

Returning Defensive Players

DE – Perhaps one of the Statesmen’s biggest concerns this fall is finding replacements for James Rayhill and Chris Luber. Potential starters at DE this season are likely to include SO Tim Murray and SR Kevin Ryan. Murray played in six games last season tallying 13 tackles, the majority of which came against Union (seven), and one sack (in the Rochester game) – Murray missed a few games due to injury to a knee that happened in the first game. Ryan only saw action in the Dickinson game, recording two tackles, so it’s possible he may remain a backup given Coach Yoder converted SO Juan Breton to DE. JR Kees Nordin and SO Chuck Seergy will also compete for time.

DT – The Statesmen return only five interior linemen, but four played significant roles for Hobart in 2010. The likely starters are SR Dan Wilcoxen and JR Nick Auriemma with JR Jordan Sisti and SR Gianni Contro either backing up or supplanting their teammates. SO Jacob Powell, while the youngest and least experienced of the group, should also see time given Coach Yoder and Muffley’s propensity to rotate in players regularly.

OLB/SS – While the graduation of Kyle O’Laughlin (and his LL fourth best 81 tackles) will be difficult to replace, one of the best players in the entire east region last year was SO Devin Worthington. Worthington earned D3football.com All-East first team, LL Rookie of the Year and LL first team defensive awards in 2010. He led the LL both tackles for a loss and sacks and was fifth and eighth, in the nation, respectively in the same categories. He blocked a FG against RPI and also scored his first TD on a fumble recovery against WPI. Worthington was named as a 2nd team preseason All-American by D3football.com as well. SOs Austin Demarco, Dan Sweeney Taylor Delperito and Steven Domoracki will compete for time at OLB/SS. My guess is Demarco begins the season at OLB, unless Hobart moves one of their ILBs outside (which is a likely scenario given the depth there) with Worthington the (obvious) starter at SS. The only upperclassman at this position is SR Gerard Tully, but he saw limited action in 2010, appearing in only the WPI game.

ILB – Hobart returns a very strong line-backing corps led by SR Reggie Robinson. Robinson led the Statesmen in tackles and finished third overall in the LL in the same category, for which earned him a nod as a first team All LL. JR Andrew Klindera, JR Nick Zapp and SR Bobby Marraffa will likely compete for the other starting LB position, but all should see significant playing time. SOs Sean Harrison and Thomas Elder will likely see time on the JV squad given the depth of this unit.

FS SO Chad Dorrance is the likely starter having backed up John Kelliher for most of 2010. However, two other SOs Jolyon Davis and James Kierans will also compete for playing time.

CB – The Statesmen welcome back four year starter and SR Co-Captain Drake Woodard at the strong side cornerback position. Drake was a unanimous selection for the first team LL defensive team in 2010. The only knock against Drake is his interception totals, which numbered seven in his first season, have dropped precipitously since (only one interception in two years). That said this same drop could be attributed to teams avoiding his side of the field completely (e.g., Woodard was not in the top 10 passes defended category according to LL stats). Backing up Woodard last year was SO Kevin Hearon. SO Connor Garrett (a fellow Californian!) started at the boundary corner spot in a handful of games. He will be competing against classmate Spencer Dunn and potentially SR Jeff Hummel.

Returning Special Teams Players

KSO Reyes Guevara seemed to wrest away the starting job from SR Conor Callahan late in 2010.  Guevara nailed a 38 yard FG in the Rochester game and was perfect on PATs. Callahan has kicked for the Statesmen for three seasons, notching 16 FGs and 64 PATs over his career. Last season he led the LL in PAT percentage (100% going 31-31) and scoring by a kicker (5.4 PPG), but was only 50% (four for eight) in FG attempts. His range is limited (usually misses over 30-35+ yards), but his longest career FG was the infamous 37 yarder against RPI in 2008 which propelled Hobart to its last LL title and visit to the NCAA playoffs.

PSO WR Yosh Karbowniczak also served as Hobart’s punter, doing a nice job and earning 2nd team All LL recognition for the same. He averaged 36.5 yards PP and was able to get at least one punt inside the 20 yard line in each game he played.

In all, it appears as tough Hobart has few, if any; glaring holes on their roster (perhaps save for DE). If this team comes together and avoids the pitfalls (i.e. turnovers and penalties) from last season, this could be a great year to be a Statesman!

This weekend we'll take a look at the 30-man FY class that just came up on the Statesmen's preseason roster.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Hobart 2011 Preseason Preview - Pt II (Offense)

Returning Offensive Players:

QBJR Nick Strang, the hero from last season’s 41-35 double overtime thriller against Union College, appears to the heir apparent given the departure of Vella. Strang accounted for six touchdowns (five passing and the game winner, one rushing) in his first start but was shelved for the remainder of 2010 due to mononucleosis. JR Kelly Olney backed up Vella after Strang was sidelined and looks to the back up this season as well.

RB - One of Hobart’s breakout players from 2010 was SO Steven Webb. The Dundee, NY native finished third in the LL in rushing yards and led the LL in scoring with 16 TDs. I personally enjoyed seeing Webb become the first Statesman to have 100 rushing and receiving yards in a single game at Homecoming against St. John Fisher (about the only good that came out of playing Fisher last season, but I digress). Backing up Webb is JR Bobby Dougherty who saw action in all nine games, gaining 119 yards and one TD. Dougherty also contributed to special teams, racking up 289 kick return yards.

FBSO Juan O’Farrill looks to start given the graduation of Matt Howard. Last season the Palm Beach Lakes grad rushed for 124 yards and one TD, as well as five receptions out of the backfield. SO John Wolfsberg (#36!) will compete for time as well.

WR – Nick Strang’s job is made somewhat easier thanks to having both SR Co-Captain Garth Muratori and JR Junior Woodard back. Both Statesmen were ranked near the top of the LL in both receptions and yards per game. Muratori caught 36 balls for 569 yards and seven TDs (which led the LL). Woodard caught 41 passes for 570 yards and three TDs. Woodard also led the LL in punt return yardage and was named to the LL first team as a return specialist. Also expected to potentially see some passes this season include JR Jay Cronze (missed some of 2010 due to injury), as well as SO Yosh Karbowniczak. Other SO WR’s include Joey Adduci, Paul Brown and Chad Hecht.

TE – The Statesmen use their TE’s sparingly as receivers, but they return four upperclassmen at this position, including SR Co-Captain Greg Clifford. Clifford started eight games and tallied three catches, but two counted as TDs. Clifford previously played FB for the Statesmen. Other TE’s include SR Matt Marsh (one key catch in the Rochester game which he started), and JR’s Andrew Zdrojewski and Brent Matazinsky.

OL – The Statesmen return almost all of their starting offensive linemen this fall, including former Co-Captain and C Kelvin Cruz who playing as a fifth year SR (missed the 2008 season). Also rejoining Cruz in the trenches are SR RT Brendan Hatlee (first team All LL), SR RG Kyle Sandy and JR LG Art Garvey. SR Anthony Coletta is likely to assume the LT position vacated by Sean Kluber’s graduation, but several other OL players including SR Jarrid Blades, JR Tyler Garvey, SO Alex Bush and SO Max Janoff will likely see action as well.

All in all, the Hobart offense appears stacked heading into camp.  If this team can avoid the turnovers that the 2010 offense struggled with, this Statesmen unit should be tops in the league once again.

Up next is the defense.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Hobart 2011 Preseason Preview - Part I (Introduction)

The Statesmen ended 2010 with a disappointing 5-4 (3-3 league) record, losing their last two games by a combined four points and missing the post-season for the second straight year. This season was also Hobart’s worst finish in the history of the LL and the lowest win total since the 1999 season.

2010 saw Hobart lead the league in most offensive categories including scoring (31.3 PPG), passing (233.7 YPG), total offense (378.9 YPG), red zone (80%), 3rd down conversions (38.7%) and pass efficiency (125.3). That said the defense was not as stout as in prior seasons (e.g. Hobart ranked 5th in the LL in scoring and pass defense) and had limited success causing takeaways (seven interceptions in 2010 compared with 19 that the 2008 playoff team generated). The Statesmen also were last in key categories such as opponent 4th down conversions (62%), penalties (52.6 YPG) and, most importantly, turnover margin (-7). The latter was especially problematic, especially in LL play. Hobart was guilty of committing four fumbles and six interceptions in their three LL losses.

The offseason wasn’t any kinder to the Statesmen with an NCAA Infractions Report going public on January 8th citing Hobart for providing financial assistance to players during the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Although the Statesmen are not barred from the playoffs in 2011, they were required to abdicate the victories from those seasons (16), provide training to Statesmen coaches and officials, hire a compliance officer and serve three years probation, among other NCAA and self-imposed penalties.

To make matters worse, a few weeks later a scheduling issue (which the Athletic Department arguably could have proactively mitigated) caused Hobart to end up with only eight regular season games. Although efforts and offers to remediate the situation occurred, no game ended up being scheduled. Consequently, this fall will be the first time since 1978 that Hobart will not play at least a nine game regular season (more on the implications of that later).

The Statesmen took another hit as long-time trainer and coordinator of sports medicine Doug Reeland lost his battle with cancer in the spring. Mr. Reeland was synonymous with HWS athletics and will be greatly missed.

Hobart again made headlines in late June when an NCAA report published by InsideHigherEd.com cited HWS as one of “six major violators” of what “is often called DIII’s bedrock principle” (i.e., providing “unjustified aid to aid athletes”). Specifically the report stated that “Hobart College showed distinguishable and unjustified patterns of award that benefited athletes”, which added further insult to injury already inflicted in January.

This offseason also saw the departures of a handful of rising seniors, the most notable being that of SR QB Doug Vella, who (unofficially) is focusing on his academics this fall instead of the gridiron. Vella was Hobart’s starting QB for the two prior seasons and was named to the LL’s 2010 first team at QB.

Needless to say Hobart is entering this fall’s camp with the goal of moving past last season’s disappointments and offseason distractions to return to the top of the LL and go back to the playoffs. Fortunately, Statesmen they have a large core group of returning players and should be once again in the thick of the Liberty League title race. A look at the Statesmen at each position; additional commentary regarding the season outlook; schedule, etc. will be posted at a later date.