2011 Season Outlook

A few pundits have Hobart as the league favorite this fall given the large number of returning players from last year's team.  At the end of 2010, I initially liked Rochester as a potential “preseason favorite” given how they finished the 2010 season (4 straight wins) and their returning roster.  I am coming around to viewing Hobart in this regard based on taking into account their large number of key contributors and in taking a closer look at the league.

Still, the long gap between the first and second games, the play of Nick Strang (is he a “one hit wonder” or a viable starter who can perform at a Doyle/Strom/Mizro level?) and the overall average play by the defense in 2010 gives me pause.

I’ve read elsewhere that others predict a 6-2 record for Hobart given the aforementioned questions. 6-2, while not a bad year, could eliminate the Statesmen from NCAA consideration for the third consecutive season – barring going 6-0 in the LL (and the accompanying NCAA automatic bid) or 5-1 via tiebreakers. 6-2 would also be good enough for an ECAC bid (in theory), but it would depend upon the other eligible teams.

At first blush I see Hobart probably beating Dickinson (losses to graduation, new QB and RB, still rebuilding), SLU (uncertainty at QB, revenge factor), USMMA (new QB, weak rush and red-zone defense), WPI (questionable passing game, last in LL in red-zone offense) and RPI (many losses to graduation, new coaching staff/scheme).

Question marks surround the SJFC (lost a lot on the OL, new QB, so they potentially could have a “down year”), Union (lost RB Chris Coney to graduation, but has had Hobart’s number of late, last year notwithstanding) and Rochester (ended 2010 on a 4-0 run, have a lot of players returning in 2011) match ups. That said I could see Hobart winning or losing all three of those contests based on a number of factors.

Thus I am going to play it safe and also predict a 6-2 season for Hobart. Even if the Statesmen don’t struggle with the turnovers and mental mistakes that plagued them in 2010, Hobart has not gone undefeated in the league since 2004.

In case you were wondering, the last undefeated Statesmen team was in 1957 (that team, which featured Mr. Garry Mendez II '58 went 6-0).  The last Hobart team to go 8-0 was in 1954.
 
Coming up next week will be a preview of the Dickinson game, ITH info and more. 
 
Go 'Bart!