The #18/22 ranked Hobart College Statesmen will open it's 2016 LL conference slate against long-time rival, the Union College Dutchmen, this Saturday at Boswell Field. It's the 100th meeting of these two rivals in a series that dates back to 1896! Kickoff is slated for noon (and according to WEOS' Ted Baker, there will be no pregame broadcast so coverage starts promptly at noon instead of the usual 20 minutes prior).
The Dutchmen are coming off a loss to Western New England (3-0) in a game that saw turnovers turn the tide on Union. The Dutchmen led 9-6 at the half, but fell 32-16, after the Golden Bears went on a 19 point run in the third quarter.
Hobart (3-0) continues to chip away at the Dutchmen's all-time series lead of 50-47-2 as the Statesmen have won six games in a row dating back to the 2010 season. Last season Hobart easily defeated Union by a score of 52-14, the highest offensive output for the Statesmen all season.
Then SO QB Shane Sweeney had an impressive 15-20, 305 passing and four TD day. WR Brandon Shed caught five of those passes for 179 yards and three scores. The Statesmen rushed for 276 yards and three TDs also, led by Connor Hartigan '16 with 95.
This year's Dutchman (1-2) squad is much improved defensively, at least against the run, and has a stout rushing attack on offense. The QB situation and passing game is what makes this Union squad somewhat one-dimensional.
Keys to the Game:
1. Sweeney to Shed - It worked for nearly 200 yards last season, so I suspect the Statesmen offense will look to test a Union passing defense that's allowed 221.7 YPG and five TDs in 2016. Union's defensive strength is in it's LB corps with players like SR SS Brian Alebiosu and SO LB Hunter Ordukhanyan who are tied for second in the LL with 32 tackles each. The Dutchmen are tough to run on, allowing only 103.3 YPG (good for fourth in the LL) and only three rushing scores on the year. Not that it matters in this contest, but the Statesmen are dead last in the LL with 103 YPG rushing. Union averages only 85 YPG passing, so you can say both teams lack of offensive balance. The imbalance may not hurt the Statesmen Saturday, but it could spell trouble for Hobart down the line against more complete / playoff ready opponents.
2. Stop the Run - On the flip side, Union has two of the LL's leading rushers in SO RB Connor Kinzelmann (42 carries for 251 yards and two TDs) and SR RB Jermaine Carn (54 carries for 216 yards and three scores). Union has only attempted 49 passes on the season so far (compared to Hobart's LL leading 122), so expect the Dutchmen to come out and test a Statesmen rush defense that's struggled somewhat, placing itself sixth in the LL with an 138.9 YPG allowed average. I'd like to see more inside gap penetration and tackles by the DL as it seems that opposing QBs and RBs haven't dealt with much inside pressure from the Statesmen defense. To its credit, the DL has forced plays to the outside so the DEs, LBs and DBs can make plays but the lack of pass rush is also something that'll need to develop in order for Hobart to have a chance to beat stronger teams down the stretch. The Statesmen are tied for first in the LL with 13 sacks (4.3 PG), but most, if not all of these came after the QB had time to scramble outside the pocket. The dangerous aspect of this outside contain strategy is that if tackles are missed (like some that where in the Brockport and Endicott games), opposing teams can get big gains of yardage outside.
3. Penalties - Hobart has more than two times the number of penalties (15) than Union (six). While I expect a tough, physical game, the long-time rivalry between these two schools can lead to "chippy" play. The Statesmen need to act like their namesake and avoid getting overly emotional or dragged into anything after the whistle. I've seen enough between these two programs to know there's some bad blood there.
Prediction
New HC Jeff Behrman has Union back on track, but Hobart doesn't need to worry too much about beating the Dutchmen this season. I like the Statesmen to cruise in this one by a score of 35-10.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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