The 16th/22nd ranked Hobart College Statesmen have won three games this season thanks to last second comebacks. That wasn't the case last season, when RPI upset the Statesmen by a score of 21-20 after a game winning two point conversion attempt was intercepted by the Engineers' All-American CB Philip Lanieri III '16.
While RPI (3-2, 1-1) has struggled somewhat this season, they appear to be a stronger team than one might have expected after having graduated a large number of starters from last year's 9-2 squad, including LL Co-OPOTY QB Jeff Avery. That group went on to earn a share of the LL title (thanks in part to Hobart beating Saint Lawrence) and captured an ECAC Bowl Championship in an exciting come from behind 20-13 win over Buffalo State.
This will be the 60th all-time meeting between these two programs, a rivalry that has been spread out of the years since it's initial start in 1910 (but I believe this will be the 52nd straight meeting since 1964). RPI and Hobart are tied 29-29-1 so the winner of Saturday's game gets some extra bragging rights, not to mention a very valuable league win.
The Engineers present some formidable challenges that the Statesmen (5-0, 2-0) have struggled with so far this season including a strong running game (249.6 YPG, good for second in the LL) and leading the league with nine INTs (three have been returned for TDs). RPI has done well on special teams, leading the LL in punt returns (20.8 YPR), punting (36.1 YPP net) and kicking going six for seven on FGs and a perfect 18-18 on PATs. RPI is also the second ranked scoring defense at the moment, allowing 18.6 PPG while putting up 28.8 PPG on offense (ranking fifth).
Leading the Engineers is #2 SO QB Ed Trimpert. More of a game manager, Trimpert has passed for 338 yards, three TDs and three INTs. His pass completion is just under 44%, so he has some work to do there, but he has good feet, rushing for 81 yards and one TD so far this season. The RPI OL has allowed seven sacks so far, but has done well opening holes for #6 JR RB Mike Tivinis. The Middleton, MA native has gained 442 yards on 75 carries (5.9 YPR), leading the team with five rushing TDs. The RPI OL is led by #53 SR OL and Co-Captain Steve Mills.
Trimpert's favorite targets this season have been #14 SO WR Keaton Ackermann and #18 JR RB Johnny Ramsdell. Ackermann and Ramsdell have caught a total of 16 passes for a combined 245 yards and two TDs. Ramsdell is also a short yardage specialist, gaining 128 rushing yards and three TDs.
On defense the Engineers are led by Co-Captains #44 SR LB Alex Greenidge and #25 SR DB Ryan Buss. Greenidge leads RPI with 42 tackles on the season to go with a 34 yard "pick six." Buss has 26 tackles and two INTs. #74 SR DL Thomas Bennett has been trouble for opposing OLs, picking up 20 tackles, 4.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks.
On special teams the Engineers have the most accurate kicker in the LL in #4 JR PK Christian Kapp. #88 JR PK Matt Raczak handles the punting duties, averaging nearly 40 YPP. So far seven of his 22 punts have pinned the opposition inside the 20 yard line and three were for over 50+ yards.
Keys to the Game:
1. Stop the Run - I'm getting to be like a broken record here but much like Ithaca and Union, this RPI team is fairly one dimensional on offense. The Engineers run to pass ratio is basically 80:20 so the Statesmen defense will need to improve upon their nearly last place (197.6 YPG and 11 TDs allowed) rushing D to stay in this game.
2. Start Fast - The Statesmen gotten off to slow starts in the last couple of games. It would do them a lot of good to put the Engineers in an early hole and force them to pass the ball, given the inexperience (and inaccuracy) of Trimpert, and play catch up.
3. Turnovers - It's very surprising to some football purists that Hobart has gone 5-0 with a turnover margin of -1. It's also somewhat of a surprise that the Statesmen secondary with all of it's depth and experience has only generated three INTs on the season so far. To be fair, Hobart's pass defense has been very strong, ranking second overall in the LL with only 128 YPG and only three total passing TDs allowed on the season. Since I don't expect Trimpert to pass that much unless the Statesmen force him to, Hobart tacklers need to try and force or recover fumbles as much as possible. RPI has been susceptible to this - fumbling the ball nine times and losing six to the opposition, slightly more than one per game. On the flip side, Hobart has to avoid the Engineers ball hawk defense.
4. Balance - The good news is RPI is 0-2 against undefeated (and ranked) teams, losing 33-17 to #25 Alfred (5-0) and 20-14 to #21 SLU (5-0, 2-0). The Engineers fell behind in both of those contests, but fought back to make things interesting. The Saxons used a very balanced offense to control the clock and their defense held RPI to five of 13 on third downs. Alfred rushed 46 times for 243 yards which we know the Statesmen won't (and probably can't) match. The Saints forced two Trimpert interceptions and had the ball for over 40 minutes, rushing for 185 yards on 47 carries, in their 20-14 defeat of RPI. Needless to say, I think Hobart has to execute better when running the ball to win this game otherwise I assume JR QB Shane Sweeney will have to attempt ~40 passes to get the Statesmen a road victory. While the Statesmen run to pass ratio is actually about 40:60 (and is probably slightly lower if you factor out the number of scrambles Sweeney has made), Hobart's offense is only gaining about 20% of their total yards on the ground. Although RPI has had success defending their end zone, RPI's rushing and passing defense aren't great, both rank sixth in the LL, allowing 158 rushing YPG and four TD and 203.2 passing YPG and six TDs. The Engineers passing defense efficiency (ranked fourth) has been helped by all the INTs they've forced.
Prediction:
Hobart has been banged up and living dangerously to open the first half of the season. A win before the bye week would do a lot of good before the back stretch of the schedule. RPI is exactly the type of team that the Statesmen have struggled to put away so far this season, but as we've seen, the "Cardiac Kids" can never be counted out given their quick strike abilities.
While I do think this is a game RPI can win, I'll tag along my ITH co-host Frank Rossi's prediction that Hobart will need to comeback, but will prevail by a score of 30-24.
Before I signoff, a special shout out to the Berkowitz family who I know will be in attendance for Saturday's game. Mike Berkowitz '15 just passed the Series 7 and is doing well post-graduation, working in the Capitol Region and living in RPI's backyard of Troy, NY.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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