Looking Back on 2016 (and Looking Ahead to 2017)

The 2016 Hobart College Statesmen gave us one of the more memorable seasons in recent years. While it certainly didn't last as long as the 2012 and 2014 playoff runs, there were arguably many more memorable and exciting moments this season that Statesmen fans won't forget for some time.

The "Cardiac Kids," as WEOS FM's Ted Baker called them, had several close wins and saw the Hobart offense break multiple school records in the passing game. Players like JR WR Brandon Shed and JR QB Shane Sweeney got on the national radar with outstanding statistical and other performances as well.

While SR OL Nick Testani will be missed, the majority of the Statesmen OL will be back in 2017. SO OL John Deveney had a solid year at LT as did SO OL Jack Koch (who btw had one of the best in-game pictures I've seen in a while with this one):

Sweeney earned the LL OPOTY award for his 3,436 passing and 36 TD year. Shed (1,284 RYDs & 17 TDs), SR WR Jack Pfohl (705 RYDs & 9 TDs) and Testani all earned 1st team All-LL awards for their contributions this season. JR TE Zach Withers and Deveney earned 2nd team All-LL awards and SO RB Tynard Barfield, SR RB Brad Burns, and JR OL Alex Helm earned Honorable Mention status.

The Hobart defense gave up more points than they have in prior years, but they also always seemed to come up with big plays down the stretch in a "bend, but don't break" type of fashion. Several young Statesmen made a name for themselves defensively which bodes well for the future. FY LB Jedh Downey finished seventh in the LL with 86 total tackles and linemen such as SO DTs AJ McFarlane and Sean Moore had excellent seasons.

Hobart saw SR DE James Hedger and SR OLB Marcus Jemison earn 1st team All-LL awards for their efforts. SR FS Matt Cragg, JR DB Tommy D'Antonio and JR LB Almamy Conde earned 2nd team All-LL awards. McFarlane and Downey joined SR DB Todd Collier as All-LL Honorable Mention players.

JR PK Rio Schmidt earned a share of the LL STPOTY award. Schmidt had an outstanding season punting for the Statesmen, averaging a league best 41.2 YPP. 29 of his 44 punts were either inside the opposition's 20 yard line (14), called for fair catch or touchbacks and finished in the Top 25 nationally in this category.

Not surprisingly, HC Mike Cragg and staff earned the CSOTY award from the league based on their 6-1 mark and head-to-head victory over Co-Champions, Saint Lawrence (9-1, 6-1).

While there were exciting games every weekend of the 2016 season, for me the turning point of the year was Hobart's coming back to win the WPI game. That drive that culminated with the 18 yard TD catch by SR WR Jack Pfohl with three seconds left was simply amazing.

That may have even eclipsed the GEICO College Football Play of the Year - a 57 yard TD catch and run by Pfohl to win the USMMA game with 19 seconds left - but not by much. The WPI win felt more meaningful to me because it kept the Statesmen's LL title hopes alive and made the following week's match up (and ultimately a win) against SLU that much more significant.

You can see the GEICO POTY here.

As an aside, this was the second year in a row a Hobart player won the award. Last year, SR RB Brad Burns won it for his hurdling 36 yard TD run against Endicott.

Speaking of the Gulls, rumor has it that they and an Empire 8 squad will be on the Statesmen's 2017 schedule. The HWS Athletics site currently shows only seven games due to the departures of WPI, USMMA and Springfield from the LL (they'll join the NEWMAC, an existing New England-based, but new FB conference next season). While a nine game season would be ok, the Statesmen are on the hunt for a 10th game / new series going forward. More on that in future posts.

Looking ahead, Hobart will likely be the favorite to retain the LL title again in 2017. Unfortunately without an additional team joining the LL, Hobart and others could end up in playoff limbo starting in 2018 given the likelihood the NCAA won't provide a "Pool B" (or at large berth to teams in conferences without sufficient representation, i.e., < 7 teams and/or independent programs) and the number of Pool C (at large) berths will also be limited due to more conferences gaining access via the Pool A (aka automatic qualifier or AQ). The good news is the 2017 team will be "grandfathered" in, so the LL Championship team will make the 2017 field as a Pool A bid in spite of the fact they would be below the required number of teams in their conference to gain access via an AQ. More on this in future posts as well.

What we also know about 2017 is Hobart should return about 7-8 starters on offense based on who played in the 11 games this season with several others in the WR corps and other positions like OL and RB with significant in-game experience.

Defensively the Statesmen will have openings at DE, OLB and FS but otherwise should return the majority (7) of the starting defense from 2016.

On special teams JR PK Will McCool or someone else will need to take over the majority of the kicking duties given the graduation of SR PK Sean Kirshe. Perhaps Schmidt will get some looks in this area (he did have one KO for 54 yards this season), otherwise the Statesmen coaches will have to bring in a FY or transfer player to take over these jobs. Hobart struggled on FGs (3-7) and PATs (39-46) this year, so this should be a priority to improve on over the offseason.

SR WR Sean Cunningham will need to be replaced as far as punt return duties are concerned also (his 501 RYDs & 4TD production will be missed too). Kickoffs were handled well by FY WR Isaiah Hill and FY RB Brian Haeffner this season and they will likely get looks to do more of the same in 2017 pending preseason camp competition.

Overall the future looks bright for Hobart who should end the 2016 season ranked in the Top 25 (D3football.com and the AFCA usually release their final standings just after the Stagg Bowl) and potentially ranked in the 2017 preseason Top 25 based on who's coming back.

Make sure you tune into D3football.com's webcast before kickoff of the Stagg Bowl on Friday, December 16th to see if players like Sweeney and Shed make their All-American teams (I have a feeling at least one, if not both of them will).

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Statesmen Acquit Themselves Well Against the Champs, But Fall 38-21

The Hobart College Statesmen's 2016 campaign ended Saturday at Boswell Field after a 38-21 loss to the defending National Champions, #7 Mount Union. The Purple Raiders took an early 14-0 lead on a couple of long drives, but Hobart battled back to eventually tie the game, 21-21, with just over 5 minutes left in the third quarter.

Instead of a normal blog / newspaper style post recapping the game, I'll just provide the link to our season finale of In The HuddLLe where we break down the game in detail with WEOS FM's Ted Baker, the voice of the Hobart Statesmen.

A link to our show can be found here.

In other news, a concern I had with the 2017 schedule seems to be not as much of an issue, as I found out the Statesmen have nine games on the calendar (instead of the seven currently up on the HWSAthletics.com website). I'll have more on that soon.

Thanks for a great season. I'll post a season recap and look ahead after the holiday. All the best for you and your families, friends and loved ones this Thanksgiving week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

NCAA Playoffs Rd 1 - Mount Union Game Preview

The #19 Hobart College Statesmen will host the #7 University of Mount Union Purple Raiders this Saturday in a first round playoff match up at Boswell Field. The Raiders (9-1) finished second in the Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) after being upset, 31-28, by John Carroll University (JCU) last Saturday.

Given Mount Union's 9-1 season, plus the fact they are the defending National Champions, the Raiders qualified for one of the six "Pool C" or at large bids to the tournament. This is the first time the Raiders have gone on the road in the playoffs (other than going to Salem for the Stagg Bowl) since 1996. In fact the last time Mount Union lost a regular season game was all the way back in 2005. The last time they lost two games in the same year was 1994 and the last time they lost two in a row was 1988.

The Statesmen actually do have a 2-1 series edge, having beaten the Raiders twice in the early 1970's. Hobart lost to Mount Union by a score of 42-7 in the second round of the NCAA Playoffs back in 2008. That team had Cecil Shorts III as a member of it, who ironically is now the teammate to former Hobart OL Ali Marpet '15 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the NFL.

Scouting the Purple Raiders

As in prior seasons, Mount Union has some fairly gaudy stats on both sides of the ball. They average 515.9 YPG, 49.2 PPG while allowing only 9.7 PPG. They are very balanced in terms of passing vs. rushing offensively, but unlike prior years are more inexperienced at QB.

The Raiders have played five different QBs this season but it appears as though #9 FY QB Dom Davis should be the starter for this Saturday's game. Davis hails from Akron (and attended the same HS as LeBron James) and he showed some FY inexperience against a blitz-heavy JCU team that sacked him seven times and forced four turnovers. In spite of these issues, JCU needed a final drive plus some luck to break Mount Union's 112 regular season game winning streak.

Davis has passed for 1,349 yards and 15 TDs while also rushing for 184 yards and four TDs as well. #1 SR RB Bradley Mitchell leads the Raiders with 1,198 rushing yards and 15 TDs. Mitchell runs behind an experienced and big OL that's led by #52 SR OL Mitch Doraty, #75 JR OL Matt Frichet and #56 SR OL Brooks Jenkins.

Mount Union's receiving corps is led by #14 SR WR Tim Kennedy. He has 42 catches for 487 yards and five TDs. Hobart will need to study the JCU film closely as their defensive secondary limited Kennedy to two catches for 17 yards last weekend. #21 JR WR Jared Ruth is another receiving threat, adding 351 yards and three scores.

Defensively Mount Union is led by #34 SR LB Charlie Dear with 59 tackles, including 8.5 TFL and four sacks. #4 SO LB Danny Robinson isn't far behind with 57 tackles, 5.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks. Although not very big on the DL, #32 JR DL Elijah Berry has been tough to block, tallying 6.5 sacks and nine TFLs, including a forced fumble. The 3-3-5 defense they run has given Hobart difficulties in the past, but that was back when the Statesmen were a run-first team. We'll see how they fare against it Saturday, but it means that other WRs and TEs will need to get open and make intermediate catches from time to time.

The kicking game is headed up by #19 JR PK Alex Louthan who's made 62-63 PATs while adding nine of 14 in FGs with a long of 44 yards. #30 SO PK Adam Snyder is the punter and averages 39.2 YPP. #5 SO RB Jawanza Evans-Morris handles return duties and has averaged 24.8 yards there. The FL native occasionally spells Mitchell, and is the second leading rusher on the team with 472 rushing yards and five TDs.

Game notes posted by Mount Union can be found here.

Keys to the Game:

1. Turnovers - Hobart can ill afford to spot an elite program like the Raiders with any points due to turnovers. On the flip side, the JCU game showed Davis can get rattled and put the ball on the ground or be intercepted (he was picked off and fumbled twice, one of the latter being returned for a TD), something the Statesmen defense must create and capitalize on as much as possible.

2. Win the LOS & Slow Down the Run - Both teams boast big, athletic OLs. Hobart's DL will need to find ways to create pressure with their front four while allowing playmakers like SR OLB Marcus Jemison to have the opportunity to create havoc in the Mount Union backfield. The Statesmen rush defense will be tested early on in the game. If they can hold up, we've got a ball game. JCU held the Raiders to 2.6 YPC on Saturday. A similar effort by the Statesmen would go a long way in this one. On offense the Hobart OL will need to keep JR QB Shane Sweeney up right and not running for his life against the extremely quick DL and LBs the Raiders will send after him. Mount Union's pass defense isn't elite, they allow over 185 YPG via the air which bodes well for the Statesmen - if the OL can give Sweeney time.

3. Weather the Storm - The Statesmen will need to not get overwhelmed if Mount Union gets off to a fast start and they can't get too overconfident if they don't. JCU led for most of the first half, then trailed for a good part of the second. Like the "Cardiac Kids" however they found ways to hang in the game and battle back to win it late on TD pass with 39 seconds left. If Hobart can keep it close, they'll have a chance late also. Mount Union has outscored their opponents 130-7 in the third quarter so halftime adjustments and not falling behind badly here will also be crucial for the Statesmen.

Final Thoughts:

No one from D3football.com or otherwise will pick the Statesmen to win this game. I've seen some odds / "models" that say Mount Union has a 97% chance of winning and will by about 30 points. This Raiders team may not be as experienced as prior versions (e.g., only six players Saturday were in the Stagg Bowl last December) but it's still an excellent and talented squad with one of the best coaching staffs at any level of CFB. While they'll carry a smaller, playoff sized roster to Geneva, Mount Union will be deeper than Hobart at most, if not every position, which could mean fresher legs for them later on in the game. Weather could play a role also as the forecast is for rain and wind in the afternoon, but hopefully not until afterwards.

I am hoping the Statesmen can play their best game of the season and catch some breaks (not likely given how the officials treat them at home, but you never know). As I said on ITH last Sunday, this isn't good draw for Hobart, but they'd have to play Mount Union at some point regardless. The one X factor is how the Raiders will feel being a road team in the playoffs in unfamiliar surroundings, especially with a younger, less experienced roster?

The X factor for Hobart is that the "Boz" has been good to the Statesmen in NCAA RD 1 home games. While it's true that Hobart hasn't faced the likes of a Mount Union in RD1, the Statesmen are 7-1 on their home field in these opening round games (Hobart also won an ECAC game at home back in 2003 with a 34-18 win over Norwich). Of course the one first round loss was to an OAC team, John Carroll, back in 2002. The Statesmen haven't lost at home in the playoffs since 2013, in the second round to Saint John Fisher.

We will see how it goes Saturday. Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Hobart Draws Mount Union for Playoffs

The NCAA Selection Committee apparently viewed the defending National Champions Mount Union (9-1) as the fourth rated team in the North and the fact that the second ranked East team was only 322 miles away, they paired Hobart (9-1) with the Raiders.

This is not a surprise for some as the Committee has often paired the LL champions with the what has historically been the most dominant team in D3 history. At least this year, Mount Union will have to go on the road and the Statesmen get to host the Champs.

Below is the link to our ITH broadcast which includes interviews with Jack McKieran, the Committee Chair, HC Mike Cragg and a special guest alumnus who appeared on the show.

You can access that show here.

Thanks for reading (and listening). Will have more on the Mount Union match up later this week.

Go Bart!

Hobart Gets Back to NCAAs, Defeats Rochester 56-27 on Senior Day

The Hobart College Statesmen clinched a share of the Liberty League Championship with a commanding 56-27 defeat of oldest rival, Rochester, Saturday in Geneva. Their head-to-head victory over Saint Lawrence (9-1, 6-1), who defeated WPI (6-4, 3-4), 28-21 on a late punt return for TD, gave them the LL Pool A (aka Automatic Qualifier) bid.

Hobart (9-1, 6-1) opened a 19-0 lead and looked great in every area save for maybe special teams to open the game. SR RB Brad Burns, SO RB Tynard Barfield each had a rushing TD and JR WR Brandon Shed added a 10 yard TD reception. 

Rochester (1-8, 0-7) got on the board after Luke Szumski made a leaping TD catch to cut the Statesmen's lead to 19-7. Rochester finally got on the board after Luke Szumski made a leaping touchdown catch to cut the Statesmen's lead to 19-7. A Hobart turnover would give the Yellow Jackets a chance to make it a game, but the Statesmen defense held and Rochester missed a field goal. SR FB Sean Bright and SR WR Jack Pfohl would add two more touchdowns on Senior Day. Although there was under two minutes to go, the Hobart defense forced a Rochester punt and allowed JR QB Shane Sweeney to find Shed for a 41 yard TD. The reception would break the all-time career mark and was Sweeney's 50th career touchdown pass as well.

Hobart took a 40-7 halftime lead and would start mixing in the reserves to start the third quarter. Rochester would capitalize, scoring 27 unanswered points, including two touchdowns by SR WR Kyle Allegrini. The Statesmen wouldn't need much time to respond, however, as on the third play of their ensuing drive Barfield broke off a 47 yard TD run to get Hobart back on track.

JR RB Joe Letizia would run in a short touchdown and FY DE Adrian Connell would force a safety to give the Statesmen a 56-27 Centennial Cup, and more importantly, a Liberty League Championship win! 

Sweeney led Hobart with 256 passing yards and three scores. The Statesmen defense was led by JR LB Almamy Conde and FY LB Jedh Downey with six tackles each. Rochester was led by backup QB Josh Brown with 136 passing yards and two touchdowns. LB Kevin Leblanc led all tacklers with a game high 10 stops. 

The Statesmen will learn of their first round playoff opponent Sunday night at 6 pm on NCAA.com. We will do a NCAA D3 Mock Selection show Saturday night at 11 PM at www.inthehuddlle.com. Our Sunday show will reveal Hobart's first round playoff opponent and our interview with the Head of the Selection Committee, Jack McKieran, so tune in!

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Week 11 - Rochester / Centennial Cup Game Preview

The #21/22 Hobart College Statesmen can clinch the Liberty League (LL) Championship with a win over their oldest rival, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets, Saturday on Senior Day in Geneva, NY.

Hobart (8-1, 5-1) leads the all-time series 53-48-7. Rochester (1-7, 0-6) is struggling through a difficult season with a limited roster. To their credit, the Yellow Jackets defense has improved since giving up 70 points to Springfield (5-4, 4-2) back in Week 7. They lost a shoot out, 37-34, to WPI (6-3, 3-3) last weekend at home which had to sting (pun intended).

Last season the Statesmen defeated UofR 42-20 in a game that saw JR QB Shane Sweeney set a school record with six passing TDs. Hobart dominated TOP by a 40-20 margin and basically emptied the bench. The biggest difference from last year's game is that #2 JR QB Dan Bronson did not play due to an injury. His FY when he was named the LL ROTY, the Yellow Jackets only lost to Hobart by a score of 28-23.

Scouting the Jackets

The Rochester offense is all about Bronson. He is third in the LL averaging 95.4 YPG rushing so Hobart tacklers will need to play their assignments and do a better job tackling than they did against Sean Richardson from SLU. Bronson can throw well too and has passed for 1,523 yards (124-228) with 12 TDs compared to only three INTs. Bronson's favorite targets are #3 SR WR Kyle Allegrini and #11 SO WR Shawn Silleman.They have combined for 639 yards and five TDs.

If Bronson isn't calling his own number, he will hand it off to #9 SO RB Emanuel Calmar. He's rushed for 233 yards and five TDs.

On defense the Yellow Jackets are led by the trio of #23 JR CB Ricky Sparks (57 tackles and two INTs), #51 SO LB Ricky Simcic (53 tackles) and #33 SR LB David Wolff (50 tackles).

Keys to the Game:

1. Just Win - Rochester is not a very good football team. They are average on offense and give up the most PPG on defense in the LL (43.3). Their kicking game stinks, ranking last in PATs (20-26), FGs (0-4) and KO coverage (29.8 YPR). Bronson keeps them competitive offensively and somehow he's survived playing behind an OL that has given up the most sacks (23) in the LL. The Statesmen can probably find holes in a passing defense that allows 179 YPG and has given up 15 TDs. If Hobart wanted to improve their rushing statistics, the 317.6 YPG allowed by Rochester would be one way to accomplish that. Ultimately the Statesmen will still need to play their "A" game because a team like Rochester is dangerous in that they have nothing to lose and everything to gain with a win.

2. Standing Tall - The Hobart OL did a great job Saturday in Canton and has gotten better with each week. The Yellow Jackets DL is small and has only produced six sacks this season. The Statesmen's ability to keep Sweeney up right will go a long way in Hobart locking in their latest LL title.

3. Thank You Seniors - A group of 15 Hobart SRs will play their final regular season home game Saturday. These young men have a 37-6 career record to date and will have helped the Statesmen earn three LL titles and playoff berths with a win this weekend. These young men include:

#11 CB Todd Collier
#15 OLB Mike Harper
#19 WR Sean Cunningham
#20 FS Matt Cragg (C)
#26 OLB Marcus Jemison (C)
#29 LB Austin Gallegos
#35 RB Bradley Burns
#36 FB Sean Bright
#46 PK Sean Kirshe
#59 DT Jake Russell
#60 OL Justin DiJiulio
#61 DE James Hedger (C)
#63 OL Nick Testani (C)
#71 OL Patrick O'Connell III (C)
#83 WR Jack Pfohl

Congratulations and thanks to these outstanding young men and student athletes.

Prediction:

I predicted a 35-20 victory on ITH last Sunday and I'll stick with that. I could see the Yellow Jackets score less than that but hopefully most of the scores will come later in the game as Hobart puts in the reserves and prepares to see who they'll play in the NCAAs.

I'll have more on Sunday's playoff selection as we'll have on the Chair of the Selection Committee on ITH for the ninth consecutive year (so make sure you tune in!).

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Statesmen Crack Top 25 Again, Podcast Appearances & More

The Hobart College Statesmen are back in the Top 25, coming in at 22 in the latest D3Football.com poll.

A link to the Top 25 poll can be found here.

There was a lot of coverage for the Saints-Statesmen game both on our In The HuddLLe podcast and on the ATN one as well. Pat Coleman and Frank Rossi discuss the game at the 29 minute mark of ATN and JR QB Shane Sweeney comes on at the 42 minute mark.

Frank Rossi also had post game interviews with SR DE James Hedger, JR WR Brandon Shed, JR QB Shane Sweeney and HC Mike Cragg on ITH. Our ATL segment also features the exciting highlights from WEOS FM's Ted Baker.

Frank predicts Hobart (8-1, 5-1) will end up ranked second in the next NCAA East Regional Rankings based on their strength of schedule. He also predicts SLU (8-1, 5-1) won't make the final playoff field. Frank will host a D3 Playoff Selection Show on Saturday night live around 11 PM ET.

Finally, a special tip of the cap to Ithaca HC Mike Welch who went 5-0 at home in his final season for the Bombers. We wish him the best in Week 11 and his retirement.

I'll have more on the Week 11 Rochester match up later this week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Hobart Air Show Upsets #16 Saints, 34-18

JR WR Brandon Shed tied the same single season receptions in a game record his teammate SR WR Jack Pfohl had also tied last week in an awesome 12 catch, 241 yard and two TD performance today in Canton, NY.

Hobart (8-1, 5-1) is one more win away from recapturing the Liberty League title and returning to the NCAA playoffs for the first time since the 2014 season. Shed also set the single season receiving yards, receptions and TD marks and now also holds the record for most receiving yards in a single game. Needless to say, Shed is likely on his way to first team All-American status by the end of the season. He needs one more TD to break the all-time mark and 800 yards to break the all-time record. He's on pace for an 80-85 reception, 1300-1400 yard and 18-21 TD season if you factor in the playoffs which is amazing.

An emotional and fiery Vimeo / pep talk produced by Connor Cough '16 that included testimonials by former Statesmen greats like Ali Marpet '15, Patrick Conlan '15, Trayvon Toney '16 and others about why Hobart needed to win this game must have worked, because the Statesmen came out swinging in this championship caliber fight.

After the Hobart defense held SLU (8-1, 5-1) to a FG, JR QB Shane Sweeney found Shed for a 58 yard TD catch and run that gave the Statesmen their first lead of the game. Although SLU would retake the lead on a SR WR Vincenzo Ferraro TD catch, Sweeney would connect with Shed again from four yards and Pfohl for 10 to give Hobart a 20-10 halftime lead.

The Saints got the ball to start the second half and used better field position and their elusive QB to keep the Hobart defense on the field for most of the third quarter. SLU would force a safety, then score on the ensuing possession to cut the Statesmen's lead to 20-18 with 1:34 left in the third. The two point conversion failed so Hobart hung onto their lead going into the final 15 minutes of the game.

JR WR Joe Barrocas would give the Statesmen some breathing room with a six yard TD catch after SR OLB Mike Harper made what arguably was the play of the game - an interception of Richardson which he returned to the Saints 22 yard line.

Pfohl would supply the final dagger with a TD a few plays later. The game was over when JR DE Brandon Ball took down Richardson on the final play of the game to give Hobart the win. To his credit, Richardson passed for 350 yards and two TDs against the Statesmen. The Hobart rush defense really had a nice game and held the Saints to only 71 rushing yards, 34 of which went to Richardson.

Sweeney passed for 363 yards and five TDs. Pfohl finished with eight catches for 71 yards and two scores. Defensively Hobart was led by JR LB Almamy Conde with a game high 14 tackles. SR DE James Hedger added two sacks and three QBHs.

Hobart will host Rochester (1-7, 0-6) in the annual Centennial Cup game next Saturday in Geneva. The Yellow Jackets lost in a 37-34 come from behind shootout to WPI (6-3, 3-3). I'll have more on this game (including post game interviews with HC Mike Cragg and others) and the next week's match ups on Sunday's In The HuddLLe podcast.

More to come and Hip Hobart!

NCAA Sends Message In First Playoff Ranking

The first 2016 NCAA DIII Football Playoff Regional Rankings were just released and the East Region results are very interesting.

The rankings were as follows:

1	Alfred	8-0
2	Stevenson	8-0
3	St. John Fisher	7-1
4	Salisbury	7-1
5	St. Lawrence	8-0
6	Hobart	7-1
7	Albright	6-2
8	Wesley	6-2
9	Western New England	8-0
10	Frostburg State	7-1

Basically it appears as though the Saints low SOS will hamper if not completely prevent them from qualifying for the NCAA's unless they beat Hobart Saturday. A loss by the Statesmen definitely will eliminate them from consideration given they would have 0 wins over regionally ranked opponents. With only six at large spots for teams in conferences, the chance more than one Eastern team getting into the tournament other than winning their league's "Pool A" (aka Automatic Qualifier) is very, very low (if not impossible) given there are seven eastern (playoff qualifying) leagues (ECFC, NEFC, MASCAC, LL, E8, NJAC and MAC).

Suddenly this game has even higher stakes as the loser is almost definitely out of the NCAA playoff race. Sure some 9-1 teams have made it in the past but SJFC's ranking at 3 and Salisbury's at 4 (not to mention Albright and Wesley just behind Hobart, who actually has a high SOS) points to the Committee looking down at the LL versus the other way around.

Looks like the game in Canton is more for survival than just a shot at a league title after all....

Week 10 - Saint Lawrence Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will travel to the North Country looking to continue their quest for another Liberty League Championship this Saturday. Standing in their path is #16 and undefeated Saint Lawrence University (8-0, 5-0). Hobart (7-1, 4-1) is also looking to continue it's five game winning streak against the Saints, who lost to the Statesmen 19-17 last year on a controversial, but still winning TD catch by Cooper Merrill '15. Hobart leads the all-time series 49-36-2 but has really dominated the series since 1991, going 24-1 against the Saints over the last 25 seasons.

In spite of this recent series dominance, the Statesmen will enter this game like they did last year's, as the underdogs. SLU boasts the #1 scoring defense in the LL, as well as in the nation, only allowing 6.9 PPG and pitching four shut outs this season.

Here's the "tale of the tape" (based on LL statistics)

SLU                                                                    HOB                                           
#1 scoring offense (32.8 PPG)                           #3 scoring offense (29.4 PPG)
#1 scoring defense (6.9 PPG)*                           #4 scoring defense (21.9 PPG)
#2 total offense (416.8 YPG)                             #4 total offense (394.8 YPG)
#1 total defense (217.5 YPG)                            #5 total defense (328.6 YPG)
#5 rushing offense (162.4 YPG)                        #8 rushing offense (75.9 YPG)
#2 rushing defense (103.3 YPG)                        #7 rushing defense (185 YPG)
#2 passing offense (254.4 YPG)                        #1 passing offense (318.9 YPG)
#1 passing defense (114.3 YPG)*                     #2 passing defense (143.6 YPG)
#1 red zone defense (.357)**                            #5 red zone defense (.840)
#1 passing defensive efficiency (91.7)               #2 passing offensive efficiency (152.6)
#1 kickoff returns yardage (24.8)                       #7 KOR (16.4)
#1 PATs (33-33)                                                 #7 PATs (26-31)
#1 TOP (33:41)                                                   #7 TOP (27:03)
#2 INTs (tied w/ 8)                                              #8 INTs (4)
#7 punting (29.6 yards net)                                 #1 punting (40.4 yards net)
* = #1 in nation
** = #2 in nation

While there are other salient stats (e.g., punt returns, sacks for & against, kickoff coverage, etc.), Hobart and SLU were relatively even enough in those categories that I didn't think it merited mentioning them here in additional detail. That said the overall team statistics favor the Saints, but one key stat (or equation I suppose) to keep in mind, is this one:

NCAA Strength of Schedule:
SLU #165 (.472) < HOB #33 (.571)

The Statesmen have played a much tougher slate to date, especially in OOC games, than the Saints have. To their credit, SLU did beat RPI 20-14 back in Week 4 and have dispatched similar opponents by wider margins of victory than Hobart.

Scouting the Saints:
This season the Saints are led by #8 JR QB Sean Richardson. The East Syracuse, NY native has passed for 1,878 yards with 16 TDs compared to 7 INTs. His much more mobile than his predecessor and has run for 505 yards on 80 carries (5.5 YPC) and three rushing TDs. #32 SO RB Roderick Payne is having a nice season and has 673 rushing yards and three TDs while also adding 18 catches, 126 receiving yards and one score.

Richardson has several favorite targets but #81 JR WR Vincenzo Ferraro is the team leader with 627 yards to go with five receiving TDs. #16 SR TE Mitch Gallagher is a match up nightmare for opposing defenses, using his height and size (6'1" 240) to gain 355 receiving yards and four TDs.

Defensively SLU is led by Co-Captain #55 SR DT Chyron Brown-Wallace, a preseason All-American who's performing at that level again. He has 11 TFL, four sacks and scored a safety in last weekend's 26-14 victory over Union (2-6, 1-4). #15 SR LB Alec Dietsch is the other captain of this SLU squad and has tallied 60 tackles and 1.5 sacks on the season. Overall #43 JR LB Skyler Williamson (who hails from my Dad's hometown of Canton, CT) leads the team with 77 tackles, 11.5 TFL and who tallied 20 tackles in a 8-0 shutout of USMMA back in Week 8.

The defensive secondary is led by #4 SR DB James Holley-Grisham. "JHG" is tied for first in the LL with four INTs and he doubles as the Saints punt return specialist, averaging 12.1 yards and scoring a TD.

#22 JR DB Austen Lauricella may be small and stocky (5' 5" 184), but he leads the LL with a 26.4 YPR average on kickoffs. While he's a great return man, he's struggled as a punter, averaging only 29.1 yards net and seeing three of his kicks blocked (which is a play Hobart knows how to make and did last Saturday when SR OLB Marcus Jemison blocked a WPI punt and returned it for a TD). #19 JR PK Daly Hebert has a good leg, and hasn't missed a PAT all season. He's made seven of eight FGs, including a long of 39 yards.

Keys to the Game:
1. Stop & Score First - Unlike the Statesmen, the Saints have never trailed from the second quarter on in any of their games and have only trailed for only 15 minutes of play, all of which was in the first quarter, this season. If Hobart can strike first, it'll pay dividends later on when the defenses most likely take control of the game. If the Saints start on offense, JR LB Almamy Conde and FY LB Jedh Downey (who've combined for 136 tackles) will need to watch out for receivers like Gallagher and #86 SR TE Matt Gardiner running routes through the middle of the defense. Hobart struggled with this last weekend and will be critical to shore this up in order to put the Saints offense back on the sideline.

2. Go Team Air Show - Hobart probably will look to top last season's 264 yard passing performance which saw JR QB Shane Sweeney drop back 46 times as the Statesmen had to battle back from a 17-7 halftime deficit. SR WR Brandon Shed was actually fairly limited last season since he was covered by All-American DB Leondre Simmon '15 for most the game. Shed did score a key TD in the fourth quarter, however, but overall only had 26 receiving yards. SR WR Jack Pfohl stepped up and led Hobart with 10 catches for 80 yards. Pfohl is coming off the best game of his career which earned him LL OPOTW and ECAC honors with a 12 catch, 197 yards and two TDs performance against WPI (5-3, 2-3).

3. Close the Door - although a lot of recaps on last year's 19-17 thriller focused on simultaneous possession rules, the real story in my opinion was the fact that the Hobart defense shut out SLU and made them go 0 for five on third down in the second half. Neither team was really able to run the ball well all day, so it allowed Sweeney to out-gun Lefflbine late in the game when it mattered most. The Saints were undefeated in LL play coming into that game and you could tell they got scared once it was 17-13 after the Shed TD in the fourth quarter. Lefflbine started to hold the ball longer and was stopped by Statesmen tacklers. The difference this year is that Richardson is a much more mobile QB so he will be harder to bring down. The Statesmen defense will have to wrap up upon contact to avoid letting Richardson break off a long run like the 78 yard game winning TD he had vs. USMMA. While Brown-Wallace gets a lot of ink, SR DE James Hedger and JR DE Brandon Ball have quietly had All-Conference type of seasons with six sacks by Hedger which leads the LL. Ball is up to 9.5 TFL to go with four sacks and both will play a big role in keeping Richardson and the Saints offense in check.

Prediction:
This is a tough one. The stats say Saints, and based on that (my head) I did pick them to win 17-14 on last Sunday's ITH here.. I picked against Hobart back in 2011 to lose to Saint John Fisher and the Statesmen proved me wrong in a big way. Hopefully that'll be the case here because my heart knows the Statesmen have almost always found ways to outlast the Saints and can do so again here. I would also hate to see SLU celebrate a LL title while also effectively ending Hobart's season but I am aware that could and very well may happen Saturday. I'll be hoping that SLU's statistical advantage is just "smoke and mirrors" and they'll won't be able to stop the high flying passing attack of Sweeney and the Statesmen.

We'll find out Saturday.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!