In spite of this recent series dominance, the Statesmen will enter this game like they did last year's, as the underdogs. SLU boasts the #1 scoring defense in the LL, as well as in the nation, only allowing 6.9 PPG and pitching four shut outs this season.
Here's the "tale of the tape" (based on LL statistics)
SLU HOB
#1 scoring offense (32.8 PPG) #3 scoring offense (29.4 PPG)
#1 scoring defense (6.9 PPG)* #4 scoring defense (21.9 PPG)
#2 total offense (416.8 YPG) #4 total offense (394.8 YPG)
#1 total defense (217.5 YPG) #5 total defense (328.6 YPG)
#5 rushing offense (162.4 YPG) #8 rushing offense (75.9 YPG)
#2 rushing defense (103.3 YPG) #7 rushing defense (185 YPG)
#2 passing offense (254.4 YPG) #1 passing offense (318.9 YPG)
#1 passing defense (114.3 YPG)* #2 passing defense (143.6 YPG)
#1 red zone defense (.357)** #5 red zone defense (.840)
#1 passing defensive efficiency (91.7) #2 passing offensive efficiency (152.6)
#1 kickoff returns yardage (24.8) #7 KOR (16.4)
#1 PATs (33-33) #7 PATs (26-31)
#1 TOP (33:41) #7 TOP (27:03)
#2 INTs (tied w/ 8) #8 INTs (4)
#7 punting (29.6 yards net) #1 punting (40.4 yards net)
* = #1 in nation
** = #2 in nation
While there are other salient stats (e.g., punt returns, sacks for & against, kickoff coverage, etc.), Hobart and SLU were relatively even enough in those categories that I didn't think it merited mentioning them here in additional detail. That said the overall team statistics favor the Saints, but one key stat (or equation I suppose) to keep in mind, is this one:
NCAA Strength of Schedule:
SLU #165 (.472) < HOB #33 (.571)
The Statesmen have played a much tougher slate to date, especially in OOC games, than the Saints have. To their credit, SLU did beat RPI 20-14 back in Week 4 and have dispatched similar opponents by wider margins of victory than Hobart.
Scouting the Saints:
This season the Saints are led by #8 JR QB Sean Richardson. The East Syracuse, NY native has passed for 1,878 yards with 16 TDs compared to 7 INTs. His much more mobile than his predecessor and has run for 505 yards on 80 carries (5.5 YPC) and three rushing TDs. #32 SO RB Roderick Payne is having a nice season and has 673 rushing yards and three TDs while also adding 18 catches, 126 receiving yards and one score.
Richardson has several favorite targets but #81 JR WR Vincenzo Ferraro is the team leader with 627 yards to go with five receiving TDs. #16 SR TE Mitch Gallagher is a match up nightmare for opposing defenses, using his height and size (6'1" 240) to gain 355 receiving yards and four TDs.
Defensively SLU is led by Co-Captain #55 SR DT Chyron Brown-Wallace, a preseason All-American who's performing at that level again. He has 11 TFL, four sacks and scored a safety in last weekend's 26-14 victory over Union (2-6, 1-4). #15 SR LB Alec Dietsch is the other captain of this SLU squad and has tallied 60 tackles and 1.5 sacks on the season. Overall #43 JR LB Skyler Williamson (who hails from my Dad's hometown of Canton, CT) leads the team with 77 tackles, 11.5 TFL and who tallied 20 tackles in a 8-0 shutout of USMMA back in Week 8.
The defensive secondary is led by #4 SR DB James Holley-Grisham. "JHG" is tied for first in the LL with four INTs and he doubles as the Saints punt return specialist, averaging 12.1 yards and scoring a TD.
#22 JR DB Austen Lauricella may be small and stocky (5' 5" 184), but he leads the LL with a 26.4 YPR average on kickoffs. While he's a great return man, he's struggled as a punter, averaging only 29.1 yards net and seeing three of his kicks blocked (which is a play Hobart knows how to make and did last Saturday when SR OLB Marcus Jemison blocked a WPI punt and returned it for a TD). #19 JR PK Daly Hebert has a good leg, and hasn't missed a PAT all season. He's made seven of eight FGs, including a long of 39 yards.
Keys to the Game:
1. Stop & Score First - Unlike the Statesmen, the Saints have never trailed from the second quarter on in any of their games and have only trailed for only 15 minutes of play, all of which was in the first quarter, this season. If Hobart can strike first, it'll pay dividends later on when the defenses most likely take control of the game. If the Saints start on offense, JR LB Almamy Conde and FY LB Jedh Downey (who've combined for 136 tackles) will need to watch out for receivers like Gallagher and #86 SR TE Matt Gardiner running routes through the middle of the defense. Hobart struggled with this last weekend and will be critical to shore this up in order to put the Saints offense back on the sideline.
2. Go Team Air Show - Hobart probably will look to top last season's 264 yard passing performance which saw JR QB Shane Sweeney drop back 46 times as the Statesmen had to battle back from a 17-7 halftime deficit. SR WR Brandon Shed was actually fairly limited last season since he was covered by All-American DB Leondre Simmon '15 for most the game. Shed did score a key TD in the fourth quarter, however, but overall only had 26 receiving yards. SR WR Jack Pfohl stepped up and led Hobart with 10 catches for 80 yards. Pfohl is coming off the best game of his career which earned him LL OPOTW and ECAC honors with a 12 catch, 197 yards and two TDs performance against WPI (5-3, 2-3).
3. Close the Door - although a lot of recaps on last year's 19-17 thriller focused on simultaneous possession rules, the real story in my opinion was the fact that the Hobart defense shut out SLU and made them go 0 for five on third down in the second half. Neither team was really able to run the ball well all day, so it allowed Sweeney to out-gun Lefflbine late in the game when it mattered most. The Saints were undefeated in LL play coming into that game and you could tell they got scared once it was 17-13 after the Shed TD in the fourth quarter. Lefflbine started to hold the ball longer and was stopped by Statesmen tacklers. The difference this year is that Richardson is a much more mobile QB so he will be harder to bring down. The Statesmen defense will have to wrap up upon contact to avoid letting Richardson break off a long run like the 78 yard game winning TD he had vs. USMMA. While Brown-Wallace gets a lot of ink, SR DE James Hedger and JR DE Brandon Ball have quietly had All-Conference type of seasons with six sacks by Hedger which leads the LL. Ball is up to 9.5 TFL to go with four sacks and both will play a big role in keeping Richardson and the Saints offense in check.
Prediction:
This is a tough one. The stats say Saints, and based on that (my head) I did pick them to win 17-14 on last Sunday's ITH here.. I picked against Hobart back in 2011 to lose to Saint John Fisher and the Statesmen proved me wrong in a big way. Hopefully that'll be the case here because my heart knows the Statesmen have almost always found ways to outlast the Saints and can do so again here. I would also hate to see SLU celebrate a LL title while also effectively ending Hobart's season but I am aware that could and very well may happen Saturday. I'll be hoping that SLU's statistical advantage is just "smoke and mirrors" and they'll won't be able to stop the high flying passing attack of Sweeney and the Statesmen.
We'll find out Saturday.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
No comments:
Post a Comment