With several All-American accolades going to SR QB Shane Sweeney and SR WR Brandon Shed, four of five starting OL coming back, as well as key players coming back at TE, WR and RB, the Hobart "Air Show" offense will once again be a force to be reckoned with.
The "hype" around the offense is valid, but what I think may get overlooked, but is equally, if not more important, is how will the Statesmen defense perform in 2017? While they do return six starters, including five players who earned some form of all-conference recognition in 2016, losses to graduation at DE (James Hedger '17), DT (Jake Russell '17), OLB (Michael Harper '17 and Marcus Jemison '17) and FS (Matt Cragg '17) leave some big shoes to fill.
While we wait to see who wins those starting roles in preseason camp, I thought it may be interesting to take a look at the overall defensive statistics from 2016 compared to a couple of past playoff teams - the 2012 and 2014 squads (which is high bar to measure against, given they were arguably the two best teams in Hobart history). There are some pitfalls to doing this exercise, but I think the data provides some potential insights that could help Hobart get back to the Elite 8 (and potentially further).
To be fair, it's very difficult to compare units over time, namely because of players like Tyre Coleman '15 and a handful of other all-time greats, among other factors. While the Statesmen defense of 2016 didn't perform statistically as well as those 2012 and 2014 units, 2016 was probably the most competitive year that the LL has seen in about eight seasons. SLU, WPI and USMMA had some of their best overall offensive squads in recent years. A punch-less Dickinson was replaced by a high powered Brockport team that led the Empire 8 in scoring with 38.1 PPG and averaged 432.4 YPG on offense in the out-of-conference slate also.
Based on that, perhaps you can take these statistical shifts with a grain of salt, and every season is different. I do think the numbers tell an interesting story, however, and will leave it up to you whether you agree (or not).
The first and most obvious difference was points per game allowed (PPG).
The average PPG allowed by the 2012 and 2014 Elite 8 teams averaged out to ~17 (barely rounded up). One caveat there is that the 17 PPG allowed is inflated due to the lopsided losses to UST (47-7) and Wesley (41-13) in the final playoff games of those respective seasons.
Regardless, let's look at it this way - those NCAA quarterfinal quality units only allowed opponents two scores a game on average.
I think this two scores per game stat is a key measuring stick, especially when you consider national contenders such as the Purple Raiders typically only allow one score per game (actually Mount Union allowed around 9.5 PPG in the 2016 regular season, but they did allow 25.5 PPG in the playoffs) on average.
In 2016, the Hobart defense allowed 23.45 PPG, or more than three scores a game on average (which put more pressure on the offense, hence a lot of those close call comeback games). While passing yards allowed only differed by about 30 YPG and passing TDs allowed amounts were negligible, there were some potentially relevant differences in the amount of rushing yards and TDs allowed in 2016.
The playoff squads of 2012 and 2014 both allowed under 100 rushing YPG (97.8 YPG in '12 and 87.5 YPG in '14) during their respective seasons and only allowed about 2.6 yards on any given carry. The 2016 defense allowed 159 rush yards per game and 3.6 YPR, which isn't a lot more in some respects but you can see a difference that adds up over time (e.g., how you call plays on 3rd and 5 vs. 3rd and 3). Also, the 2014 defense only allowed 6 rush TDs in 11 games, while the 2016 version allowed 19. The 2014 Statesmen allowed one rushing TD in the JHU game and two to Wesley in the Elite 8 to finish the year with 9.
In the LL rankings, the defenses of the '12-14 era usually ranked in the 1-3 range of key stats whereas the 2016 version tended to average in the 5-7 range, depending on the category. Some of that difference had to do with some exceptional units of last season's LL opponents (e.g., RPI, SLU and MMA had some of their best defensive units in several seasons), but some of it also falls on a "bend but don't break" style the Hobart defense played in 2016.
Sacks were also down from 43 in 2012 and 39 in 2014 to 31-33 in 2016 (LL stats show 31 but HWS has 33). INTs also dropped from over 10 per season in 2012 & 14 to only six in 2016 (which was last in the LL in that category).
Both of these categories are ones I imagine new DC Coach Backhaus would like to see go up, which combined with a more stout rushing defense, would put the Statesmen in rarified air, as far as the potential for another special season goes.
While it's no surprise that if a team plays the run tough, rushes the passer and forces turnovers you win more ballgames, hopefully the above puts things into perspective as we head into the 2017 season. I think this year's Hobart defense has a lot of potential but there are some X factors that need to be worked out.
Fortunately there's a strong combination of experience - SR LB and Co-captain Almamy Conde and SR DT and Co-Captain Zack Robak up the middle along with SR DBs Tom D'Antonio and Daryl Scales in the secondary and SR DE Brandon Ball on the end - and youth - with SO LB Jedh Downey, JR DE/DT AJ MacFarlane and JR DT Sean Moore - "comin' atcha" in 2017.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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