Last season Hobart prevailed after a five yard run by then JR RB Joe Letizia with 1:29 remaining capped an eight-play, 88 yard drive. A last gasp attempt by the Golden Eagles would be stuffed by the Statesmen defense, especially after a holding penalty and then a 21 yard loss thanks to a sack by then JR DE Brandon Ball set up a 4th and 37 that Brockport wouldn't convert.
The Statesmen have updated their two-deep according to HWSAthletics.com, including a few changes from when I spoke to the coaching staff back in mid-August. You can read about those here.
Scouting the Golden Eagles
Thanks to my buddy Ray Biggs, a D3football.com contributor and voice of the Utica College Pioneers football (and Hockey) broadcasts, for some great insight into who's coming back this season to Brockport. We preview this game, along with many others, in our preseason video podcast you can find here on the ITH Facebook page.
The Golden Eagles return 15 starters from last season's 7-4 squad. The offense welcomes back eight starters, but Brockport did lose one of their all-time great players in the graduation of Dan Andrews. Andrews gashed the Hobart defense for 184 rushing yards and three TDs in 2016. This season the RB position will be decided between FY RB Chris Clark, JR RB Christian Hollister and Gannon University transfer SO RB Justin Morrison.
Brockport doesn’t expect to replicate Andrews' level of production right away, but these players, while inexperienced, are solid athletes. The Golden Eagles need a running game that can spell SO QB Joe Germiniero, who Hobart didn't face last season (save for one play, a two yard run). Germiniero transferred from Albany where he played tight end to his HS position of QB (he has a younger brother who's also a QB who I heard enrolled at Union). Although he really didn't play against the Statesmen in 2016, Germinerio eventually earned the starting job, completing a highly efficient 73% of his passes for 1,499 yards and 11 TDs. For that performance he earned the E8 ROTY award.
Germiniero's primarily targets will likely be SO WR Joseph Ortiz and SR WR Jerry Thompson. SR FB Dalton Cooley was a first team all-conference pick and should make the post-Andrews transition a little bit easier given his capabilities as a lead blocker. The OL for Brockport should be outstanding with three all-conference picks returning. First team All-E8 SR OL Mark Sanchez will be the center, 2nd team pick JR OL Caleb Ferdilus and SR OL Justin Torres, an honorable mention pick, are back at OG. SR OL Aidan Barrientos and SR OL James Grennan bring size and experience at OT.
The Golden Eagles defense returns five starters, but at least two others started a few games last season, so you could say it is seven. Either way, Brockport's defense will need to improve after allowing over 27 PPG and nearly 400 YPG in 2016. The good news is they have one of the better coverage safeties in SR DB Jake O’Connell, who led the E8 in INTs and was a D3football.com all-region honoree. The Golden Eagles rush defense was stout, but they struggled against the pass, which is probably where and what OC Jon Drach will look to exploit on Saturday.
The 3-3 stack defensive front has JR DT Austin Dean and JR DE Terry McDonald back but there will be a new starter at the other DE spot. SO DE Allassane Coulibaly is among the frontrunners to fill that need, but he only saw action in three games last season and will need to get up to speed quickly. The Golden Eagles return JR LB and leading tackler Matt Szymanski, as well as SR LBs Jake Brickler and Nate Keith. SR DB Julius Mizro is the lead candidate for the rover and in the secondary, SR DB Julius Brunson returns for a third year at corner (he was a safety in 2016), with JR DB Rashad Baker likely to play on the opposite side. SO DB Alaan Montgomery will join O'Connell at safety.
On special teams, Brockport returns SR PK Brett Renzi. You can read up on him, as well as the entire preseason camp for the Golden Eagles, here. Very impressive coverage by the Brockport Athletic Communications staff.
Keys to the Game:
1. Win the LOS - While this game does feature two outstanding QBs, the best matchup in this game, in my opinion, will be the Brockport OL vs. the Hobart DL. If the Statesmen DL can disrupt Germiniero's rhythm it'll go a long way towards avoiding another shootout game like we saw last season. Also, with several new starters in the Statesmen DB and OLB corps, it's even more important for the pressure up front to not force these newer players to be out in coverage for extended periods. Hobart's offense is sure to put up points, but Statesmen OL's of the past have struggled against 3-3 fronts, so it'll be interesting to see how that matchup goes as well. Part of the reason the Statesmen had to throw the ball so much last season's game was the Golden Eagles DL and LBs held Hobart to only 77 rushing yards on 20 carries (3.5 YPC average). I'd like to see the Statesmen be a little more balanced, and will be curious to see how some of the initial run calls work early on in this game. I also think we'll see a RB by committee approach, given the talents of SR RB Joe Letizia, JR RB Tynard Barfield and FY RB Dakota Harvey.
2. Let's Go Air Show - SR QB Shane Sweeney lit up the Golden Eagles last season to the tune of 420 yards and four TDs. SR WR Brandon Shed set the tone with 11 catches for 190 yards and two scores. Brockport will likely shift O'Connell over to give the CBs help, so we could see Sweeney check down and look for immediate routes being run by guys like SR TE Zach Withers, JR TE Matt Woods and/or JR WR Joe Barrocas. Barrocas scored on a TD reception on the opening drive against Buffalo State in last Saturday night's scrimmage.
3. Keep It Clean - It's hard to play at your best in the first game of the season. It takes time to dial in on all the key aspects of the game. Last season these teams combined for 21 flags for -211 yards and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more than a handful of penalties Saturday. What Hobart did very well against Brockport last year is protect the football. The Statesmen committed zero turnovers while forcing one fumble. While Germiniero was highly efficient, he did throw five INTs over his final five games of 2016. If Hobart's defense can rattle him early, we could see the Statesmen take advantage with a turnover or two.
Prediction:
I'll take Hobart to win this one 42-28. I think it'll be close for most of the game but Hobart will pull away late. Brockport has a lot of offensive firepower, but the Statesmen defense is tough to beat at home, even with a few new starters in positions such as OLB and FS.
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