For the third straight year, the Hobart College Statesmen will line up against the College at Brockport Golden Eagles. The Eagles took a slight 5-4 edge in the all-time series, after they ran up over 600 yards of total offense, in a 34-20 defeat of Hobart in 2017. A 12-game win streak, an Empire 8 Championship and trip to the NCAA Final Four followed. Not surprisingly, the Golden Eagles come into 2018 with a lot of expectations to go with a #6 ranking in the D3football.com Top 25 preseason poll.
That publication believes they will once again go 10-0, and named JR QB Joe Germiniero and SR S Jake O'Connell first team preseason All-Americans along with third team nods to JR RB Justin Morrison, SR NG Austin Dean and JR OLB Alex West.
Needless to say Brockport is bringing back a LOT of talent. So how do the Statesmen upset the latest "Beast of the East"?
The last time the Statesmen played here, they beat the Eagles in a 41-35 shootout.
Scouting the Golden Eagles:
The biggest question mark facing Brockport in 2018 is whether or not their OL can be as dominant a group as it was last season? Four starters graduated, so they have a lot to replace in this key unit. Back on August 19th, the Golden Eagles did an interesting preview that focused on their OL, so be sure to give that a look. Another came out on August 22 and you can see that here. SR OL and team co-captain Caleb Ferdilus is the one starter returning, but he's switching from his usual position of LG to RT.
Ferdilus and the OL will have the job of protecting one of the best signal callers in the nation in JR QB Joe Germiniero. He'll have a strong group of WRs to throw the football to including SO WR Tyree Brown, JR WRs Daquan Hubbard and Joseph Ortiz. This group had big days against the Statesmen defense last season, especially in the second half, racking up 18 total catches for 306 receiving yards and a TD. Brown is a dual threat, as he rushed for 355 yards and nine TDs in 2017. Morrison, a DII transfer, had a break out game against Hobart also, rushing for 169 yards and two TDs. The second was a back breaking 22-yard run for a score with 2:41 remaining in the game. He finished the season with 1,004 yards and nine TDs. Germiniero is a mobile QB, adding 55 rushing yards of his own and the first score of the game, a 14-yard scamper after putting the Statesmen defense on it's heels after a 45-yard bomb to Hubbard on the play before. He actually led the Golden Eagles in 2017 with 13 rushing TDs. Look for SR FB Casey Goldberg to lead the way for Germaniero and Morrison on running plays.
The Brockport defense held Hobart to only 79 rushing yards but more importantly forced three interceptions last season. The Statesmen didn't do themselves any favors, getting flagged 14 times for -107 penalty yards, but credit the Golden Eagles "D", they made the plays when needed. They were especially effective on third and fourth down, holding Hobart to 4-12 on third and 0-2 on fourth down conversions. The Brockport offense was the beneficiary of that, having nearly a 38-22 minute TOP advantage because of it. DC Mike Fox runs a 3-3 stack type of defense from his days at Saint John Fisher (which Hobart struggled with, especially in the 2013 NCAA playoffs), and he has the luxury of bringing back the bulk (eight or nine starters, depending on who you ask) of last year's squad. 5th-year SR DB Matt Arita will start opposite O'Connell in a weak-side S / FS role. JR OLB Alex West is back and SO OLB Lawrence Jenkins will move into the starting role opposite the All-American. SR LB Matt Szymanski is back via a red-shirt. He was a real pain for Hobart last season, getting a sack, two TFL and adding two QB hits to go along with five tackles. SR NG Austin Dean is back and will have SR DL John Tucci and SR DE Terry McDonald returning as the bookends of the DL. SR DB Rashad Baker returns at corner, although the Golden Eagles tend to be more heavy in playing safeties / hybrid players than most traditional defenses. FY DB Adonis Carrasco has reportedly had a good camp, and could work his way into the rotation at either CB or S. Another who should see some time Saturday is 5th year transfer (taking advantage of the new rules in DIII) Cedric Cambell III, who was a second team all-conference player for Birmingham-Southern (a DIII school in GA) last season at S.
The Golden Eagles special teams unit was strong on kickoffs against the Statesmen, averaging over 62 YPKO. Brockport only punted twice (one was a quick kick by Germiniero), but one of them was downed inside the Hobart 20 yard-line. The Statesmen blocked one FG attempt, but otherwise their PK Brett Renzi was perfect, going 4-4 on PATs and hitting his other two FG attempts. With Renzi having graduated, however, Brockport will have to rely on someone new in the kicking game this season.
Keys to the Game:
1. Dent Dean (but Get to the Second Level) - One of the most important match ups of the new season will be how new starting center SO OL Alex Lanzana and projected starting guards SO OL Dillon Casey and FY OL Dalton Kindt handle Brockport SR NG Austin Dean. The LOS battle will start there and the interior three OL's ability to keep the 6'5" 272 lbs third team preseason All-American in check (along with his two classmates at tackle and end) will go a long way in deciding how this game plays out. It'll also be crucial for the OL to cover their initial gaps, but get to the "second level", i.e., the Brockport LBs and DBs who'll probably be very aggressive at the point of attack.
2. Convert / Win TOP - The most obvious "best defense" for Hobart is to keep arguably the best QB in the nation on the sidelines for a long as they can. This job will fall on the Statesmen OL, FBs and RBs as they will need to do a better job against the 3-3 stack than they did last season. While Hobart had success in the passing game against Brockport, I doubt you'll see JR QB Ryan Hofmann drop back 44 times like Shane Sweeney '18 did. SO RB Dakota Harvey scored his first career TD against Brockport last season, seeing limited action in that game. He'll need to have a couple more TDs than that to give Hobart a chance to win Saturday. The Statesmen may need to employ a rotation of players like SO FB Shane White and JR FB/RB Omari Davis to open up running lanes given all the LBs and safeties flying in for the Eagles (pun intended).
3. Keep Fighting (Nicely) - The Golden Eagles respectfully refer to Hobart as a "perennial powerhouse" on their website, but they are the clear favorites in this year's match up. The Statesmen will need to make some plays early on and try and avoid a lot of the mistakes, penalty and execution wise, that ultimately cost them a chance to really comeback and possibly win the game last season. Brockport HC Jason Mangone runs a good program, but if Brockport has an achilles heel, it's that they can get chippy and a little cocky, trying to intimidate their opposition. This behavior almost cost them in the national quarterfinals against Delaware Valley. So while Hobart needs to play hard and always to the whistle, they cannot afford to get baited into, nor start any, extra curricular activities in the game when emotions are high.
4. Limit Big Plays on Defense - The Statesmen "D" gave up pass plays of 67, 45 and 30 yards and every Golden Eagles receiver had double-digit reception yards in the game last season. Morrison had a 68-yard run to go with his 22-yard, second TD, as well. Hobart's young defense will have to look to limit these long gains and play a bend, but don't break style of play to limit Brockport's possessions and scoring opportunities.
Prediction:
On paper, this should be a two to three TD win for #6 Brockport. Hobart has a lot of question marks and inexperienced players at several key positions. That inexperience however gives the Statesmen the element of surprise, so if they can execute their game plan, not get to high if they're winning nor too low if they're losing, this should be a very competitive match up.
I can't wait to see it in person.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
No comments:
Post a Comment