The Hobart College Statesmen will travel to nearby Alfred, NY to take on the Saxons for the third consecutive season opener against their Empire 8 rivals. This Friday night game will be the 80th edition of the series that dates back to the 1902 season.
Hobart leads the overall rivalry with a 41-35-4 record, mostly due to the fact that the Statesmen have bested the Saxons for 12 straight games, dating all the way back to the 1996 season. While Hobart fans should be confident going into this one (Logan Hansen's "Ratings" predictive model gives the Statesmen an 88% chance to win), but it should be noted that Alfred has a winning record against Hobart at home - 18-16-2 - and they'll be debuting in their upgraded turf field at Yunevich Stadium.
Last season the Statesmen defeated the Saxons, 36-6, thanks to a strong aerial attack that racked up 258 passing yards and 4 pass TDs. This is a new season; however, and with a new QB and OL, Hobart may need to pivot to the run game.
Both squads lost some key players to graduation, but Alfred does return a few key components from last year's 2-8 team. SR LB Joe Copp and JR RB Max Freeman IV will lead the defense and offense, respectively. They earned first team All-E8 honors last year. Copp was also a second team All-Region selection by D3football.com.
The Saxons also bring back second team All-E8 GR WR Jacob Kelsey, SR DL Danny Quinones, SR LB/P Zach Johnson and SR DL Tyreek Ormil. Kelsey, Copp and Quinones are team co-captains along with GR DB Amir Massey and GR OL Parker Evans.
Based on the roster, barring any surprises from preseason camp, my guess is Hobart can expect to see now SO QB Chris Kelly leading the offense. He started against the Statesmen last year, going 16-27 for 142 pass yards. He would later lose / share the starting job to SO QB Zuke Smith, but Smith doesn't appear to be back this season.
On special teams, the Statesmen will have to wait and see who the Saxons have this year. Last season's FY PK Ian Barbini doesn't appear to have come back. FY PKs Owen Bishop and Dominic Bronco are the current players on the roster, other than Johnson, who are kickers.
Keys to the Game:
1. Copps & Blockers - Maybe Coach DeWall will surprise me, but I would suspect Hobart to lean into the running game Friday night. The OL will need to account for Alfred's best defensive player in Copp, who's a big (6'0 240 lbs.) run stuffer who is aided by an experienced DL. I could see the Statesmen use some lead blockers or otherwise look for opportunities to isolate Copp and run to daylight in the other direction. I'd also like to see some roll outs and play action that can take advantage of JR QB Johnny Columbi's athleticism. A few early completions can build his confidence and perhaps set up a longer shot downfield to JR WR Rane Daramola, who had a 28-yd TD catch against the Saxons last season.
2. Sack the Saxons - Hobart's defense returns most of last season's excellent unit, so I would expect them to be aggressive and pressure the Alfred offense into third and longs as well as a turnover or two. I'll be closely watching the DL, which is the group that has the newest starters, as well as our deep safeties.
3. Win and Go Home - Lucky 13 (in a row) will be the number for the Statesmen to focus on, as going 1-0 is really the goal for Week 1. The Saxons will be a tough test, especially on their home field, but the Statesmen should have enough talent to head back to Geneva with a victory.
Prediction:
I suspect the game will be low scoring to start much like last year, but Hobart will pull away in the second half. I'll take the Statesmen to win 31-7.
Just like the rest of you, I'll be looking forward to watching the game on Friday night. Excited for the season to be here. Thanks for reading as always and go 'Bart!
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