Now the season really starts.
Although Hobart has accumulated a solid 3-0 record over the past four weeks, the Statesmen and the (now #17 ranked) Ithaca College Bombers (2-1) go into this anticipated Liberty League conference opener an equal 0-0.
The Bombers once again get the week off to rest up and be extra prepared for this matchup, but so it goes with the conference schedule. Last season Hobart saw two turnovers get quickly cashed in for TDs and they never had a chance to get into the game, falling behind 28-0, then losing 31-7.
The Bombers have owned this series 5-30 overall, dating back to 1961 (a one-off game) and 1972 (when Hobart and Ithaca started playing each other on a regular basis for a couple of decades). The Statesmen didn't win a game against Ithaca until the 2000 season, then matched the Bombers with a 4-4 record between then and 2017.
Since that 2017 season Ithaca is on a five-game winning streak against Hobart, including a 17-0 mark at home against their FLX neighbors from the north. While these historical statistics do stir up some consternation, the good news is there have been two teams so far this year that have developed and delivered sound game plans to deal with these Bombers.
Hobart and Ithaca's only like opponent is Alfred (2-2), who the Bombers defeated 22-0 in Week 3 and Hobart dispatched, 31-9, in Week 1. If you do the math, it's ironic that the margin of victory is exactly the same (22 points).
Scouting the Bombers
Looking at the stats, this year's version of the Bombers isn't as explosive (pun intended) offensively as in prior years. They are very balanced, however, gaining 30 first downs via the run and 26 via the pass (and only 6 via penalty, so their three opponents so far have been much more disciplined than Hobart in that area). Their YPG in each category is nearly identical also - 156 YPG rushing with 4 TDs and 170 YPG passing with 4 TDs. Ithaca is averaging 19.67 PPG compared to 14.67 PPG on defense, which is kind of surprising also.
The Bombers are a very experienced squad, and assuming nothing changes from the Week 3 game notes, 10 of their 11 starters are seniors on offense, 9 on defense. The other 3 starters are JRs and the upperclassman depth on each side of the ball is impressive. What's ironic about this however is that Hobart's younger and smaller roster has achieved better total offense and defensive rankings (albeit against a much easier schedule) in the LL standings prior to league play. The only place Ithaca has an edge was in passing offense and defense, but by a narrow average yardage margin.
SR QB A.J. Wingfield was named a preseason All-American by D3Football.com but has struggled by his standards, going 48-85 (56.47%) for 510 yards passing. A dual threat QB, Wingfield has added 89 rushing yards and two scores also. His top target has been SR WR Sam Kline who he's connected with for 16 receptions for 244 yards and 2 TDs.
Ithaca runs a two back offense similar to Hobart's, with SR RB Jake Williams leading the team with 29 carries for 163 yards and 1 TD. Not far behind him is classmate SR RB Jalen Leonard-Osbourne with 27 carries for 106 yards and 1 TD. "JLO", as I'll call him, is also a receiving threat. He has caught 11 passes out of the backfield for 129 yards, the second best on the team.
The Bombers D has allowed 2 rushing and 4 passing TDs so far over three games and has collected 2 INTs, both belonging to GR LB Ben Stola who also leads the team with 26 total tackles. Ithaca has only 3 sacks on the season, basically one per game.
On special teams, JR PK Derek Balden has gone 2-2 on FG attempts with a long of 25. He also handles KOs, averaging 61.2 YPKO with four touchbacks. JR LB Darren Bruner handles the punting duties, averaging 39.58 YPP. Wingfield has one punt (a likely "quick kick," on 4th down) to his name for 31 yards.
Oddly enough Ithaca has -11 yards on four punt returns this season but has seen GR WR Anthony D'Addetta and JR WR Tyrell Penalba average about 20 yards on KO returns.
Keys to the Game:
1. Tales from the Tape: So far this season, both Johns Hopkins and Endicott have provided very good game tape on what works against these Bombers. In the Week 1 game against Hopkins, Ithaca only completed 11-30 passes, went 4-14 on 3rd down and 0-4 on fourth down. The lesson here is you need to pressure Wingfield into difficult down to go situations, not let his receivers get comfortable and force them to lean on the run game. Hopkins stretched the field on offense, averaging over 9 yards per pass and mixed in the run to the tune of 39 carries which not surprisingly gave them about a 34-26 TOP advantage. While I am not confident JR QB Johnny Columbi is ready to go "full vertical" in this game, his WRs showed promise (after they had a few drops in the 1st quarter vs. Keystone) they can win a 1:1 matchup and get open downfield. Ithaca's SR FS is 6' 3", but the rest of the secondary are 6' or shorter. The Statesmen have a clear height advantage here with SR WR Peyton Cayea (6' 5") and SO WR Ahmad Crowell (6' 4"). The OL and the running game can help with the clock (and keeping Wingfield on the sideline), as Ithaca did allow over 4 per rush against both JHU and Endicott. Play action to set up shorter and mid-range gains should work also against the aggressive front seven of Ithaca.
2. Keep it Clean: The Bombers beat Hobart in 2021 in large part to a targeting penalty that ejected SR OLB and All-American Emmett Forde. The Statesmen have struggled with penalties for the past two seasons, and I can guarantee at home the Bombers fans will be heckling the Hobart players on the sidelines (the stands are really too close to the opposing team's bench in my opinion) and the Ithaca players will do what they can to intimidate and rattle the guys on the field. The Statesmen MUST keep their composure and not fall into this trap.
3. Tis the Season: So far this year we've seen three national losing streaks end and there have been major upsets in the Top 25 for at least the last two weeks. Ithaca will certainly be a strong favorite based on their recent and historical track record vs. Hobart, but if other teams can do it, why not the Statesmen?
Prediction:
This is the tough part. While I have faith in Columbi, while he did it and then some against Keystone, I am not sure if he can pull off a Bay Harvey 19-28, 257 yards and 3 TD type of performance like the one that beat Ithaca in Week 1. That would be asking a LOT from a guy in only his fourth career start. I think a balanced attack where Hobart controls the ball, and the clock, is their best shot at beating the Bombers for the first time at Butterfield. I'm just not convinced this is the year.
The "Hansen's Rating's" model on Twitter/X has this game as a 25-16 win for the Bombers, with a 70.6% confidence rating. Ithaca hasn't scored more that 22 points so far this season, but with the extra week, the likely mistakes by a younger, less experienced Hobart squad and just the general "Butterfield Curse", I think Ithaca will likely be able to hang on to win a close game, 24-21.
I am hedging here because I haven't correctly picked a Hobart win since 2016 in this series. It's been close though with three of those games being 7-, 7- and 3-point differentials. Hopefully this time will be the charm.
Enjoy the game Saturday and go 'Bart!
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