Monday, November 6, 2023

Week 11 - Rochester and Centennial Cup Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen look to end their 2023 regular season on a three-game win streak and all but ensure themselves of another postseason bowl bid. Standing in their way is Hobart's oldest rival, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets. The "Jackets", coached by Hobart alumni Chad Martinovich '94, are a resurgent program, enjoying their best season (5-4, 2-3) since 2015.

The Statesmen (7-2, 3-2) have won 11 in a row against the UofR, dating back to 2011. Hobart leads the all-time series by a 59-48-2 record, so this will be the 110th edition of this match up. The Statesmen won last season's game (I remember it well, because I was there), 27-7. Both Tim Denham, Jr. and Rayshawn Boswell had two TDs each - two rushing scores for Boswell, a rushing and receiving TD for Denham, Jr. 

Scouting the Yellow Jackets

Rochester is the fifth ranked Liberty League scoring offense (23.9 PPG) and defense (23 PPG allowed). They are also the fifth ranked total offense (348.1 YPG) and sixth ranked total defense (362.4 YPG allowed). They are the fifth ranked rushing offense (143.6 YPG) and sixth ranked rushing defense (178.8 YPG allowed). 

It looks like the Yellow Jackets strength this season has been in the passing game. They are ranked third in the LL averaging 204.6 YPG passing, notching 14 receiving TDs which is second best in the league. While they are ranked sixth in passing defense, their stats are actually pretty good, allowing 183.7 YPG and only 11 passing TDs over nine games. 

Rochester is led on offense by JR QB Ryan Rose. The GA native has gone 175-291, for 1,834 yards and 14 TDs. Rose is the top-rated passer (as far as YPG goes) in the LL, but he has been turnover prone, throwing 11 INTs. 

Leading the Yellow Jackets rushing attack is SR RB Daniel Papantonis, but he appears to have been sidelined with a season-ending injury after the Ithaca game. Classmate SR RB Will Varney has had to pick up the slack, and he's had a good season to date with 424 rushing yards and 3 TDs.

The receiving corps are led by SR WR Trey Johnson (67 catches for 670 yards and 4 TDs) and SO WR Aidan Papantonis (Dan's little brother who's caught 55 passes for 619 yards and 5 TDs). A potential matchup to keep an eye on is SO TE Jackson Kane against the Hobart LBs, especially near the goal line. He's hauled in 16 catches for 183 yards and 3 TDs. 

Defensively, Rochester is led by JR LB Happy Chane who has 76 total tackles, which is good for third best in the LL. SO DB Judah Thomas leads the LL with six INTs. SR LB Joe DeBonis leads the defense with six TFL, 2.5 sacks and 6 QB hits, so the Statesmen OL will need to account for him on Saturday. 

Rochester's return game isn't much to write home about, they rank sixth in both KOR and PRs, averaging only 18.8 and 5.9 YPR in each category. The Yellow Jackers are last with 36.1 YPKO (net) but have been perfect on PATs (25-25) and 8-12 on FGs this season. 

Handling punting duties is JR PK Alex Wing and JR PK Jordan Laudani is the Jackets KO and FGs/PAT specialist. 

Keys to the Game:

1. Stick to the Script: Last weekend's RPI game was the Hobart we've been hoping to see all season - a ferocious defense with a pounding rushing attack that leverages JR QB Johnny Columbi's athleticism. We saw moments of it in the Ithaca and Union games, but the Statesmen weren't able to pull it together for a full four quarters. They did that in Week 10 and should feel very confident if they play like they did last weekend in Rochester, the Statesmen will finish 8-2 overall.  

2. Force / Limit Turnovers: As stated above, Rose is a strong QB, but he has been and can be picked off pretty regularly this season. The Statesmen need to take advantage of this stat while also being very careful not to turnover the ball on offense. 

3. Finish Strong (for the Seniors): I mentioned it in the last preview, but Hobart has 17 SRs who are playing in their final regular season game. There was a nice article in the Finger Lakes Times about the win against RPI where HC Kevin DeWall '00 mentioned how much he "loves our seniors" and how he is "really proud of the fact that these guys, when they came in day one, they’ve been great men of character on and off the field, great students, obviously great players that are talented and they’re all uniquely different. That’s the toughest part, I’m going to be upset in a good way where you don’t want to say goodbye to these guys but we’re going to just try and keep these guys for as long as possible with keeping this season going. When the time is right afterwards, we’re going to look them in the eye and thank them for all they’ve done on and off the field as student athletes, as citizens on this campus and just represented the football family in a great way.”

These guys are:


#1 Rayshawn Boswell

#1 Abdoulaye Diallo

# 2 Tim Denham, Jr.

#5 Peyton Cayea

#7 Chris Bartosic 

#7 Joe McCoy

#16 Jordon Walker

#27 James Mahoney

#36 Drew Walsh

#39 Matt Brown

#52 Ruben Navarro

#62 Matt Siegel

#72 Patrick Healy

#79 Seamus Dean

#90 Joel Kraft

#93 Caleb Pulver

#94 Connor Gunn

Prediction: I have a feeling that this year's game against the Yellow Jackets will be somewhat similar to last season's. I like Hobart to pound the ball and create issues for the Rochester offense, coming away with a turnover or two. I'll take the Statesmen to close out the 2023 regular season with a 38-10 win.

Thanks as always for reading, congratulations to all the SR Statesmen student athletes and their families and go 'Bart!


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