While some teams schedule an easy win for their homecoming game, the Hobart College Statesmen will host defending Liberty League champions, Ithaca College, this Saturday. This is the biggest game of the season, as Hobart (3-1) has struggled to solve the Bombers (1-2) for several years now.
The Statesmen have lost six in a row against Ithaca and have a 5-31 all-time mark against their Finger Lakes and LL rivals. Hobart's last win in this series, ironically enough, was also a homecoming game back in 2016. The Statesmen dominated the Bombers that day to the tune of 23-3.
This season Ithaca comes into this game with a losing record, having dropped their first two games against (then) nationally ranked Johns Hopkins and Endicott (who just beat RPI also, 28-20). This makes Saturday's game a playoff elimination game for the Bombers. Hobart will need to dig deep to figure out a way to defeat an Ithaca team that always seems to benefit from good luck against the Statesmen.
We saw that "luck" in action last year, when a bad punt snap gave the Bombers a 14-7 lead in the second quarter they never relinquished. We saw it in 2021 when the Statesmen's top defensive player was ejected in a game that ended up being decided by a TD.
It's not Halloween yet, but Hobart needs to exorcise some Ithaca demons this Saturday to take the next step.
Scouting the Bombers
Ithaca graduated off a good number of seniors and fifth years in the offseason, but there are still several familiar names on the Bombers roster this year. Leading the offense is SR RB Jalen Leonard-Osborne. The Ardsley, NY native always seems to have big games against the Statesmen defense. So far this season he's rushed for 197 yards on 39 carries, adding three catches for 88 yards. He has scored two rushing TDs and is averaging over 30 YPKO in the return game for Ithaca.
Alongside JLO is SR RB Jake Williams. He has rushed 38 times for 139 yards and one rush TD. At QB, the Bombers seem to be running a system where both SO QBs Colin Schumm and Matthew Parker take turns leading the offense. Schumm is 40-70 passing for 475 yards with three pass TDs but also four INTs. Parker, who came in to play for Schumm when he was injured in the Endicott game, has gone 11-20 passing for 138 yards and two INTs. These turnover struggles are a big reason why IC is coming into this game with a losing record.
One thing you notice looking at the stat sheet is Ithaca likes to spread the ball around in the passing game. They have six receivers with at least five catches in the first three games of the season. Leading the way is SO WR Nicholas Lang with a team high 12 receptions for 105 yards and one TD. Not far behind are SO WR Nicholas Matos and SR WR Ben Marinaccio who both have eight catches a piece for a combined 262 yards and one TD.
Defensively Ithaca is led by SR DB Jake Connolly with 24 total tackles and four TFL. On the DL keep an eye on #91 SR DL Owen O'Neill who has a team high 4.5 TFL. SR LB Darren Brunner and JR LB Ryan Burns are solid tacklers also, with 22 and 21 tackles each.
On special teams Brunner also happens to be the punter, averaging almost 39 YPP. FGs, KOs and PATs are handled by SR PK Derek Baldin. He's 2-2 on the year for FGs with a long of 45 yards (against Hopkins). He averages about 62 YPKO and has six touchbacks on the year, so I don't expect many return chances for Hobart Saturday.
Keys to the Game:
1. Home(coming) Cooking - Hobart's home record under HC Kevin DeWall '00 is 26-3 if my math is correct, but two of those home losses were to Ithaca. Given the Bombers tough start, albeit against a stronger schedule, this is a great opportunity for the Statesmen to finally break the Ithaca winning streak. This season the Bombers didn't get their annual advantage of an extra week of prep for Hobart given their game against Curry College last weekend and their bye in Week 3. Hopefully this will level the playing field some that will allow the Statesmen to give what should be a large, homecoming crowd a lot to cheer about.
2. Turnovers - Last year, Hobart was undone by two fumbles and special teams' miscues that the Bombers were able to capitalize on. This season it looks like Ithaca is a team that struggles protecting the football, having thrown six INTs and fumbling away the ball twice in their 1-2 start. With the Statesmen's swarming defense, Ithaca should have some trouble moving the ball and with enough pressure could end up providing Hobart with a game changing take away (or two) if things go well.
3. Weather the Storm - Every year it always seems like the Statesmen make a big mistake in the game vs. Ithaca that triggers the old "here we go again". Even if Hobart has some bad luck, they need to stay focused and not revert to the past where the Statesmen have lost composure and/or given up big plays down the stretch. Ithaca will come into this game hungry and expecting to win. The Statesmen will need to take a few punches early and deliver a few of their own to let the Bombers know this year will be different.
Prediction:
While some may think it's crazy to pick against a team that has an 86% winning percentage against the other; for some reason, kind of like 2016, this feels like the year Hobart will finally beat the Bombers. They've been close in four of the last six contests but found ways to come up short. This year Statesmen offense is coming into their own at the right time and the defense has proven they are a Top 25 caliber unit. I think this will be a lower scoring game, with Hobart able to hang on for a close 23-20 victory that may very well come down to the final play.
Hoping for the best this homecoming weekend and wishing I was there in person for this one, but I'll have to catch it online per usual.
Thanks everyone for reading and go 'Bart!
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