NCAA Round 2 Playoff / Susquehanna Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will travel down to Selinsgrove, PA to face their toughest opponent of the season, the Landmark Conference Champion and #6 ranked Susquehanna University River Hawks. Susquehanna (9-1, 6-0) is returning to the playoffs third consecutive year. Their only loss, a 40-38 decision, came at the hands of defending national champions Cortland (10-0, 7-0), back in Week 3.

Hobart (9-1, 6-0) and the River Hawks have two common opponents - Moravian and Keystone. The Statesmen beat the Greyhounds 27-12 and the Giants 52-9 in Weeks 3 and 4, when our offense was just finding its legs. Susquehanna defeated Moravian in Week 10, 49-34, and Keystone in Week 6, 79-6.

Neither of these results tell us much, but at a high level you can say that Hobart has a better defense than the River Hawks and Susquehanna's offense is more explosive than the Statesmen's. Special teams probably lean Hobart given the personnel and national accolades they've received this season. 

Logan Hansen gives the Statesmen a 17.5% chance of winning next Saturday. I imagine most of the D3Football.com panel of experts will pick the River Hawks to beat the Statesmen also. So how does Hobart win this game?

Let's take a look.

Scouting Susquehanna

The River Hawks are a spread offense, 3-4 defensive team. They have averaged 48.5 PPG on offense and allowed 19.2 PPG on defense. They have scored 31 receiving and 32 rushing TDs this season. They have won most of their games in blowouts, but a common theme in the closer ones and the loss to Cortland is they struggled to stop the run and convert on third down.

Hobart is 2-3 all time against Susquehanna, and long-time fans may remember the time when the River Hawks were in the Liberty League (2007-2009), before they left to join the Centennial. These two programs haven't played each other in 15 years, so this is a new and interesting matchup in the 2nd round. 

Offensively Susquehanna is led by SO QB Josh Ehrlich (really a JR, as he transferred in from Marist after one year and didn't lose eligibility). He's an accurate passer, going 163-232 (70.26%) for 2,403 yards and 28 TDs compared to only four INTs. Ehrlich has added 496 rushing yards and eight rush TDs. The Rivers Hawks OL appears to be a solid group, and they've only allowed 14 sacks on the season, just a little over one per game. 

Although they lost their star RB to injury, Susquehanna didn't miss a beat with the addition of FY RB Rahshan La Mons. He's gained 1,145 yards on 145 carries (8 YPR) and 14 rush TDs. SR WR Kyle Howes is Ehrlich's favorite target, catching 56 passes for 965 yards and 14 TDs this season (that's nearly 100 YPG receiving). GR WR Chris Bookter has caught half (28) as many passes and TDs (7) but is lanky (6' 2" 185 lbs.) target that has racked up 502 receiving yards this season.

Defensively the River Hawks are led by SR LB Garrett Carter with 69 total tackles. A big, physical player (6' 2" 240 lbs.), Carter has added a team-high nine TFL and two sacks. GR DL Jake Schultes leads the team with five sacks to go with six TFL and 32 total tackles. 10 different Susquehanna defenders have collected at least one INT on the year. GR LB Drew Robinson and GR OLB Josh Parson lead the team with two, respectively. 

SR PK Christian Colasurdo handles punts, averaging 39.64 YPP, and has gone 3-6 on FGs this season (long of 39). SO PK Dominic Bourgeois averages 61.7 YPKO, with 20 TBs. He's gone 2-2 on FGs with a long of 32 yards.

In the return game La Mons has the most PRs with 11 for a 32.73 YPR average with three returned for TDs. 11 different Susquehanna players have returned KOs, JR WR Hunter Morganroth has the most with eight for 168 yards (21 YPKOR average). 

Keys to the Game:

1. Ground Control to Major Bart - Cortland rushed for 257 yards on 49 carries in their win over the River Hawks earlier this season. SO RB E.J. Taylor will need the Hobart OL to play their best game and give him openings to gash the Susquehanna defense, churn the clock and keep the high-powered River Hawks offense on the sideline. 

2. Get Off the Field on Third (and Fourth) Down - The River Hawks have converted nearly 55% of their third down conversions this season and have gone for it 16 times on fourth down, converting 13 of those tries (81.25%). The defense has to be prepared for four down possessions, especially on the Statesmen side of the field.

3. Play Four Quarters - Both of these teams have lost close games this season they probably should / could have won. Hobart will need to stay focused and hope that the ghosts of two consecutive first round exits start to creep into the Susquehanna sideline later in the game. The Statesmen can win if they play to their strengths - a strong run game and tough defense - but can't afford to make any mistakes. The River Hawks are too good of a team to give easy points to and expect to beat. 

Prediction:

I believe Hobart can win this game, but it'll require an effort that's been above and beyond what they've delivered so far this season. Susquehanna will be a big favorite but has lost at home in the playoffs two years running now. One interesting statistic I noticed is that the River Hawks opponents only attempted one FG all season. It may not be pretty, but if this game ends up a defensive battle, having SR PK Tobias Wefering and JR PK Vicente Lyon could make a big difference down the stretch. 

I'm going to call the upset, 24-21, to take the Statesmen to Minnesota (or if UWL wins, back to Geneva). 

Go 'Bart!

Statesmen Draw Susquehanna in the NCAA Playoffs

The Hobart Statesmen drew the Landmark Conference Champions Susquehanna University today in the NCAA playoff bracket release show. Hobart ended up in the Saint John's bracket, which is a very tough draw as the Johnnies are the overall number one seed in the tournament based on the NPI ratings.

Susquehanna is in the tournament for the third season in a row and are hoping to break their opening round, home playoff losing streak against the Statesmen. Hobart will need to rely on its #1 nationally ranked scoring defense to slow down the River Hawks offense which averages 48.5 PPG. 

I'll have more on this one later this week, but for now, it's see you in Selinsgrove, PA on Saturday, November 30th. 

Statesmen Swat Jackets, 37-7, Completes Best Regular Season Since 2016

The Hobart College Statesmen finished the 2024 regular season with a strong showing on Senior Day, blowing out the University of Rochester, 37-7. Hobart (9-1, 6-0) wins the Liberty League title outright and finishes with their best regular season mark since 2016. 

The Statesmen will wait until Sunday night at 5 PM to see where they will end up in the NCAA playoff bracket. I'm sticking with my Hobart ending up playing Johns Hopkins prediction but will have to look at the NPI numbers once all the games today go final. Rochester (6-4, 2-4) put in an ECAC Bowl bid but may opt out given the number of injuries on their roster. 

In today's game, SO RB E.J. Taylor (pictured above) rushed 22 times for 158 yards and three rushing TDs. He went over 1,000 yards on the season, which is an impressive feat for only a SO.

FY WR Johnny Harding all but cemented his likely LL ROTY award with his seventh receiving TD, opening up the scoring in the game. FY DB Jay Brunson, Jr. ended the scoring with a last-minute pick six. 

SR LBs Anthony Romano and Jamien Bliss led the defense with 14 and 12 tackles, respectively. FY DB Corey Rock added an INT, his fourth on the season. 

Now we wait until Sunday at 5 PM. I'll have more on the bracket and Hobart's first playoff matchup once it's available.

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart! 

Week 11 - Rochester / Senior Day / Centennial Cup Game Preview

Wishing everyone a happy and healthy Veterans Day. Thank you to all who have served our country and protected our freedom. 

Now let's talk some D3FB.

The Hobart College Statesmen will honor their seniors and fifth-year players (the final time for the latter given the end of the extra COVID year of eligibility) this Saturday at the Boz, with a lot on the line. The Statesmen (8-1, 5-0) have the opportunity to retain the Centennial Cup trophy, win the Liberty League Championship outright and hopefully maintain a first-round bye position for the NCAA playoffs. Hobart stands at #22 in the NPI rankings and could move up to the 20-21 range after this weekend, which would keep them out of the first-round play in games, based on my understanding of how the seeding works. 

After starting 5-0, Rochester has lost three of their last four games, including two in a row. The Yellow Jackets (6-3, 2-3) dropped a 34-13 decision to Union in Week 10. They appear to have lost GR RB Daniel Papantonis for the season after the Saint Lawrence game, which could be a big reason for their recent struggles.

Rochester is Hobart's oldest rival, and the Statesmen have 60-48-7 all-time record against the Yellow Jackets, making Saturday's contest the 116th edition of this rivalry. The Statesmen have won twelve straight against the UofR dating back to the 2011 season. Rochester last beat Hobart, 35-34 in 2OT back in the 2010 season. 

Scouting the Yellow Jackets

Despite their more recent struggles, this has been a successful season for the UofR. Six wins is a mark they haven't met going all the way back to the 2007 season and seven wins is something that hasn't happened since 2006.

Rochester is a run first offense, calling runs about 58% of their total plays this season. With Papadonis out, JR RB Jake Adelman has picked up the slack, rushing for 231 yards and three TDs. SR QB Ryan Rose has passed for almost 1100 yards, but last week he was benched after throwing two INTs. FY QB Creighton Wise came in and played better, going 9-20 for 140 yards and two passing TDs. I am guessing he may get the start Saturday.

The top receiving targets for Rose and Wise have varied. Rochester has five WRs with at least one TD catch. SR WR Trey Johnson leads the team with 45 catches for 385 yards. He has three receiving TDs on the year. JR WR Aidan Papadonis leads the team with four TD catches and is not far behind Johnson's totals with 32 catches for 341 yards. SO WR Samuel Nuamah (pictured above) is a big target, standing 6' 4" and 220 lbs. He has caught two TD passes over the past two weeks, so clearly, he's becoming a bigger part of the Rochester game plan. 

JR LB Luke Herter leads a solid Yellow Jackets defense that has held opponents to just under 17 PPG this season. He leads the team with 72 total tackles. The Hobart OL will need to keep an eye on GR LB Joe DeBonis. He leads Rochester with five sacks and 9.5 TFL. JR DB Jordy Tawa has been a ball hawk this year, collecting seven INTs and 11 PBUs.

On special teams the Yellow Jackets utilize two different players. SR PK Alex Wing handles punting duties, averaging over 38 YPP. SR PK Jordan Laudani is 0-3 on FG attempts, so I don't expect us to see any tried Saturday. Laudani is better at KOs, averaging over 52 YPKO, on those.

Leading WR Trey Johnson has been the primary return man on punts and KORs. According to the Yellow Jackets stat sheet, he returned a KO 95 yards for a TD against the University of New England back in Week 4.

Keys to the Game:

1. Stretch the Field: Last Saturday, Union passed for 325 yards and three passing TDs against this Rochester defense. JR QB Patch Flanagan is not as accurate a passer as SR QB Johnny Columbi, so this could be a good opportunity for the Statesmen offense to try to mix things up a bit before the playoffs.

2. But Pound the Rock and Play Hobart Defense: In their losses to Ithaca and Buffalo State, the Yellow Jackets struggled to stop the Bombers and Bengals rushing attack. Ithaca's was especially productive, racking up nearly 300 yards on the ground to go with two rushing TDs. The Statesmen defense just needs to keep doing what it does and could have a field day if Wise gets the start. The Yellow Jackets have struggled with turnovers this season and there should be some more with the pressure Hobart brings. 

3. Just Win: Capping off the regular season at 9-1 and with a playoff berth hasn't happened since 2016. This is a great opportunity to send off the seniors and fifth years with a memorable win and build momentum towards the playoffs. While we won't know Hobart's fate until Sunday night, we can rest assured a 9-1 record should enable the Statesmen to earn a valuable first-round bye.

Prediction:

I think Hobart wins big, 35-7 and keeps the Centennial Cup home for yet another year.

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!

Projecting Hobart's Playoff Possibilities

The Hobart College Statesmen booked their latest trip to the NCAA Playoffs by clinching the Liberty League Championship in Week 9 with a win over RPI, 27-21 (and a little help from Buffalo State). Sitting at 8-1, 5-0, Hobart can win the title outright with a win over Rochester (7-2, 4-2) in Week 11. This would help the Statesmen guarantee themselves a shot at a first-round playoff bye. A loss would all but guarantee Hobart dropping into the first-round pool of play in games at 8-2.

Staying positive, and assuming a Hobart Week 11 victory, we will then have to wait and see what the Statesmen's draw to the NCAA tournament will be based on the new NCAA Power Index (NPI) system and bracketing process. Currently in the 23rd spot in the latest NPI rankings, Hobart is basically sitting in what one could interpret as a sixth seed position. Think of it this way - 1-8 are the one and two seeds, 9-12 are the three seeds, 13-16 are the four seeds, 17-20 are the five seeds, and 21-24 are the six seeds. The 26-40 ranked NPI teams are the 7 and 8 seeds who will play in Round 1. It should be noted that there are five teams / conferences (ECFC, HCAC, SCIAC, UMAC and USAC) that are below the Top 40, so the "cut off" line is effectively at 35 for teams with Pool C / at-large hopes. As long as Hobart stays in the Top 24, they get a bye week. That said, their current and likely final position is one that almost guarantees a road playoff game, so we will have to plan accordingly come Selection Sunday. 

Cortland's title run last season was from a similar (maybe 5th seed) standing, so just saying...

Looking up the rankings, there are at least five teams ahead of the Statesmen that could potentially lose and help Hobart move up a spot or more, especially with the boost of beating a 7-win Rochester squad. #22 UMHB has to play conference rival and undefeated Hardin-Simmons (8-0, 4-0) this Saturday. The last game was a blowout win for the Cowboys, so you could expect UMHB to drop to 4-2 in D3 games, which would be good for the Statesmen to move up to at least #22.

Up next is undefeated #19 Lake Forest (8-0, 7-0) of the Midwest Conference who has a championship game against Monmouth (7-1, 7-0) this Saturday. A win by Monmouth wouldn't necessarily knock LFC out of the playoffs, but a loss by #35 Monmouth would likely send them to the Lakefront Bowl (the annual postseason bowl game between the runners up of the MWC and NACC).

#16 Marietta plays #9 Mount Union in a battle of 8-0 teams this weekend also. A win by Marietta would be a big one, while a win for the Purple Raiders could move them into the Top 8 "protected teams". Under this new system, the Top 8 is guaranteed home games and not having to play any of the other Top 8 teams until the national quarterfinals.

#10 DePauw is another undefeated team, and will play conference rivals Wabash (7-1, 6-0) in Week 11 for the "Monon Bell" trophy and NCAC title/Pool A bid. A win by DePauw and losses by other teams could move them into the Top 8, but a loss wouldn't knock them out of the playoffs. A Wabash win would lift them up considerably from their current #37 position which is just outside the playoff "bubble" at the moment. 

Sitting in the #5 spot is undefeated Whitworth (8-0, 5-0) of the Northwest Conference. Despite their record and standing, many think they will lose to perennial NWC powerhouse Linfield (7-1, 5-0). The Wildcats only loss this season is to UW-Oshkosh (6-1, 4-1 in D3 play), who has a chance to win the WIAC, considered by most to the best conference in the nation. Linfield currently sits at #30 but would likely rise up into the Top 24 with a win in Week 11 against Whitworth. The loss would drop the Pirates out of the Top 8, but not out of the playoff picture, but would likely end up above the Statesmen still. 

That said I am betting on Hobart ending up in the 20-21 range and playing in Round 2 on the road, perhaps against a team like Springfield or maybe Johns Hopkins. The Statesmen's geographic location could send them into the Midwest, but I have a feeling with Salisbury and Cortland in the Top 8 there's a good chance Hobart ends up in their bracket. However, we could see a situation like 2012 where the Statesmen were sent into more of a Midwest bracket and with teams like NCC and Mount Union in the Top 8, Hobart could end up there with a shot at playing the Purple Raiders in the Sweet 16, potentially.

At the end of the day, this is all conjecture on my part. The good news is the Statesmen will have this weekend and Week 12 to rest up and get ready for Rochester and the postseason. It's been a while, so I am looking forward to seeing Hobart's name called on Selection Sunday for the first time in eight years. Wherever we end up, we will have a chance. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Statesmen Win First Conference Championship Since 2016, Outlast RPI, 27-21

It's been a long time since I've been able to write the Hobart College Football team are the Liberty League Conference Champions and are going to the National Playoffs.

It feels pretty good to do so.

The Statesmen (8-1, 5-0) had some help from Buffalo State and gritty performances from all three phases of the game. SR PK Tobias Wefering set the all-time FG record (32) with a 43-yarder with 9:37 to go in the second quarter. 

SR QB Johnny Columbi had a strong game, going 17-28 for 258 yards passing and three TDs with only one INT. Although Hobart did give up a 27-6 third quarter lead, they managed to make some great plays in the fourth quarter to hang on and win.

The Hobart defense gave up three TDs in the game after not allowing any since Week 5, but I think this was more to it being Week 9 and just running out of steam. In the end players like JR OLB Mike McGhee, SR OLB Jamien Bliss and others made big plays down the stretch. 

The Statesmen get a bye for Week 10, and I'll have some thoughts regarding the next round of NPI rankings early next week. Enjoy this one. It's been a long time since we celebrated a conference championship. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!