The Hobart College Statesmen will travel down to Selinsgrove, PA to face their toughest opponent of the season, the Landmark Conference Champion and #6 ranked Susquehanna University River Hawks. Susquehanna (9-1, 6-0) is returning to the playoffs for the third consecutive year. Their only loss, a 40-38 decision, came at the hands of defending national champions Cortland (10-0, 7-0), back in Week 3.
Hobart (9-1, 6-0) and the River Hawks have two common opponents - Moravian and Keystone. The Statesmen beat the Greyhounds 27-12 and the Giants 52-9 in Weeks 3 and 4, when our offense was just finding its legs. Susquehanna defeated Moravian in Week 10, 49-34, and Keystone in Week 6, 79-6.
Neither of these results tell us much, but at a high level you can say that Hobart has a better defense than the River Hawks and Susquehanna's offense is more explosive than the Statesmen's. Special teams probably lean Hobart given the personnel and national accolades they've received this season.
Logan Hansen gives the Statesmen a 17.5% chance of winning next Saturday. I imagine most of the D3Football.com panel of experts will pick the River Hawks to beat the Statesmen also. So how does Hobart win this game?
Let's take a look.
Scouting Susquehanna
The River Hawks are a spread offense, 3-4 defensive team. They have averaged 48.5 PPG on offense and allowed 19.2 PPG on defense. They have scored 31 receiving and 32 rushing TDs this season. They have won most of their games in blowouts, but a common theme in the closer ones and the loss to Cortland is they struggled to stop the run and convert on third down.
Hobart is 2-3 all time against Susquehanna, and long-time fans may remember the time when the River Hawks were in the Liberty League (2007-2009), before they left to join the Centennial. These two programs haven't played each other in 15 years, so this is a new and interesting matchup in the 2nd round.
Offensively Susquehanna is led by SO QB Josh Ehrlich (really a JR, as he transferred in from Marist after one year and didn't lose eligibility). He's an accurate passer, going 163-232 (70.26%) for 2,403 yards and 28 TDs compared to only four INTs. Ehrlich has added 496 rushing yards and eight rush TDs. The Rivers Hawks OL appears to be a solid group, and they've only allowed 14 sacks on the season, just a little over one per game.
Although they lost their star RB to injury, Susquehanna didn't miss a beat with the addition of FY RB Rahshan La Mons. He's gained 1,145 yards on 145 carries (8 YPR) and 14 rush TDs. SR WR Kyle Howes is Ehrlich's favorite target, catching 56 passes for 965 yards and 14 TDs this season (that's nearly 100 YPG receiving). GR WR Chris Bookter has caught half (28) as many passes and TDs (7) but is lanky (6' 2" 185 lbs.) target that has racked up 502 receiving yards this season.
Defensively the River Hawks are led by SR LB Garrett Carter with 69 total tackles. A big, physical player (6' 2" 240 lbs.), Carter has added a team-high nine TFL and two sacks. GR DL Jake Schultes leads the team with five sacks to go with six TFL and 32 total tackles. 10 different Susquehanna defenders have collected at least one INT on the year. GR LB Drew Robinson and GR OLB Josh Parson lead the team with two, respectively.
SR PK Christian Colasurdo handles punts, averaging 39.64 YPP, and has gone 3-6 on FGs this season (long of 39). SO PK Dominic Bourgeois averages 61.7 YPKO, with 20 TBs. He's gone 2-2 on FGs with a long of 32 yards.
In the return game La Mons has the most PRs with 11 for a 32.73 YPR average with three returned for TDs. 11 different Susquehanna players have returned KOs, JR WR Hunter Morganroth has the most with eight for 168 yards (21 YPKOR average).
Keys to the Game:
1. Ground Control to Major Bart - Cortland rushed for 257 yards on 49 carries in their win over the River Hawks earlier this season. SO RB E.J. Taylor will need the Hobart OL to play their best game and give him openings to gash the Susquehanna defense, churn the clock and keep the high-powered River Hawks offense on the sideline.
2. Get Off the Field on Third (and Fourth) Down - The River Hawks have converted nearly 55% of their third down conversions this season and have gone for it 16 times on fourth down, converting 13 of those tries (81.25%). The defense has to be prepared for four down possessions, especially on the Statesmen side of the field.
3. Play Four Quarters - Both of these teams have lost close games this season they probably should / could have won. Hobart will need to stay focused and hope that the ghosts of two consecutive first round exits start to creep into the Susquehanna sideline later in the game. The Statesmen can win if they play to their strengths - a strong run game and tough defense - but can't afford to make any mistakes. The River Hawks are too good of a team to give easy points to and expect to beat.
Prediction:
I believe Hobart can win this game, but it'll require an effort that's been above and beyond what they've delivered so far this season. Susquehanna will be a big favorite but has lost at home in the playoffs two years running now. One interesting statistic I noticed is that the River Hawks opponents only attempted one FG all season. It may not be pretty, but if this game ends up a defensive battle, having SR PK Tobias Wefering and JR PK Vicente Lyon could make a big difference down the stretch.
I'm going to call the upset, 24-21, to take the Statesmen to Minnesota (or if UWL wins, back to Geneva).
Go 'Bart!
No comments:
Post a Comment