100 Days 'Til Kickoff / Hansen (Not So) High on Hobart?

Today officially marks that we are 100 days away from when the Hobart College Statesmen kickoff their 126th season of college football. As we know, Team 126 has some high expectations in what's become one of the most competitive conferences in the East Region.

While the Statesmen faithful are very bullish on this season's prospects, some prognosticators are a little skeptical of Hobart's chances. One of these is a former D3FB player (Wabash College), HSFB coach and structural engineer Logan Hansen.

Hansen, who's based in Iowa and occasionally collaborates with D3football.com, has developed an interesting ranking and predictive model over the last couple of years using historical data and regression analysis to predict future results.

In the current model, Hobart is ranked 48th out of 237 teams, given the NESCAC and a couple of other teams are not included because of their inability / lack of participation in OOC games and the NCAA playoffs. According to the stats, the Statesmen are predicted to finish the 2019 season with a 6-4, 4-2 record (technically a 6.4-3.6 record, which basically allows the possibility of the Statesmen winning a close one and ending up 7-3 with a certain level of probability), with at least two of those losses coming in LL play. While being considered in the Top 20% of all D3FB teams and a winning season is certainly not a bad thing, I think most Hobart fans would view a 6-4 finish, even with one of the toughest schedules in the East Region, as disappointing.

Looking more closely, you can infer that these are the predicted results for Hobart:

Statesmen Opponent (Hansen Ranking):
vs. Brockport (17) L
vs. SUNY-M (94) W
vs. Rowan (124) W
vs. Montclair St. (70) model leans towards a W for Hobart
vs. Union (52) leans towards a L for Hobart (more on this below)
vs. RPI (37) L
vs. IC (39) L
vs. SLU (109) W
vs. Buff St (148) W
vs. UofR (199) W

What's interesting about the above is that the model values Union higher than Montclair State, the latter of which will be returning 18 starters from last year's 8-2 campaign in the NJAC (one of those losses being a 24-17 decision to Frostburg State which has left the conference and is now a D2 program) - which in my opinion, is the strongest East Region conference overall.

To be fair, the model will be updated with this type of returning player data, including the fact Hobart will be returning a lot of starters as well, later this summer. I'd recommend checking back in August to see how these ratings and predictions change based on this information (which will be included in the annual D3football.com "Kickoff 2019" online magazine).

Given the prediction for Union to end up 4-2 in the LL, you can also infer that the model sees a number of ways LL teams will "beat each other up" (neither Ithaca nor RPI are predicted to be undefeated in the LL either) and/or the Hobart-Union game being the one that will decide whether Hobart or Union ends up 7-3 or 6-4, basically. The model also has Montclair getting the majority (2.5) of it's predicted 3.5 losses from NJAC play, insinuating that the Red Hawks could win all of their three OCC games (or potentially lose to Hobart).

While there are certain flaws to the model, it does provide some interesting musings and conversation points in the slow off-season, summer days.

Let the countdown to kickoff officially begin! I'll have some other updates throughout the summer months as we get closer to preseason camp (and creep towards and eventually pass having 250K views of this blog site - thank you!).

Thanks again for reading and go 'Bart!

2019 Recruiting Recap

Welcome to May!

Only 130 days until the Week 1 regular season home opener against Brockport.🕔

The Class of 2023 announcements by HC Kevin DeWall '00 wrapped up last week giving us some time to get to know the newest Statesmen on the team. While it's possible one or two players may "melt" (an admissions term for someone who changes their minds last minute, even after putting down a deposit) out or in (getting in off the wait list for example), we can expect most, if not all, of these student athletes heading to Hobart in the fall.

Given it's a relatively smaller recruiting class than we've seen in recent years, I thought it might be interesting to break it down and "analyze it". I'll couch this by saying this really isn't analysis, but my opinion based on watching a little film, knowledge of certain HS programs and reviewing basic statistics. Ultimately it's up to the coaches to find out who can play and mold these kids to their best potential. Injuries can also come into play - see FY LB CJ Calero who looked like an absolute stud coming out of HS but unfortunately had a non-contact ACL tear in the preseason that preempted what might have been an outstanding rookie campaign. Hopefully we'll have a chance to see him and what he can contribute in 2019, along with some of these other players below.

At a high level, this is pretty diverse class from a geographic perspective:

NY - 10
CT, MA & NJ - 12 (4 each)
FL & VA - 4 (2 each)
GA, NH & TX - 3 (1 each)

Here's a breakdown by position (another caveat - these could change during camp as it's not unusual to see a DB become a WR or vice versa, for example, so keep that in mind as far as position designation goes), starting with the defense (13):

Defensive Line (DL) - 5
Gunn, Norris, O'Grady, Powers, and Williams

Last season the DL was not a strength of the team until later in the season. Hobart's rushing D finished fourth in the conference allowing over 130 YPG and allowed the third most rushing TDs with 13 (which is actually not bad, but also not as good as Ithaca and Union who only allowed five). They also had the second worst sack total in the LL, tallying 18 over nine games (basically two per game), so hopefully that will improve in 2019.

Norris and Powers appear to be the strongest in this group, but time will tell. A lot can happen during preseason camp and how players look "on paper" and in HS highlight film doesn't always transfer to the college game.

Linebacker (LB) - 3
Duckett, Hanley, and Visconti

LB is a key position group given Hobart's traditional 4x4 scheme (although they did go away from that last season and it's looking like we can expect to see more of a base 3x4 / package philosophy going forward). All three of these players come from strong HS programs, Hanley in particular. While he's more of an OLB, I could see Duckett and Visconti getting looks at ILB.

Secondary (FS/SS/CB) - 5
Barnosky, Diallo, Hansen, Harps-Zhu, and Inwood

Like the DL, the DBs struggled early in the season and Hobart ended the 2018 campaign with a second to worst 247.6 YPG allowed and a LL high 21 passing TDs completed against them. Although there are some bright spots in JR CB Jared Leake, JR FS Cal Sullivan, and SO FS Jay McCoy, the Hobart secondary needs to play better against what's become a very pass heavy LL.

From this group I like the looks of Diallo and "JHZ" as cover corners, while Hansen is a pro-typical strong safety. Inwood played CB and S so I'm sure he'll be given looks in both spots. Barnosky is more of "center fielder" / traditional FS based on what I saw. Another thing I like about this group of recruits is that most are over 6'-6'1" tall. No more "itty bitty committee" like Coach Cragg used to joke around about a decade or so ago.

Now let's take a look at the offense (15):

The Hobart offense finished first in most LL statistical categories and return a good bulk (literally and figuratively) of starters from last season. That said, these recruits are about building depth across every position which I know is a priority of Coach DeWall's.

Offensive Line (OL) - 6
Cecere, Cremers, Fowler, Frank, Trowbridge, and Wright  

The OL is the number one priority and it looks like the Statesmen added some nice players to build out depth in this critical unit. Cremers was once a UMass commit so in theory he could be the best of the lot, and while some of this group is undersized (for now), players like Wright (6'3" 270) aren't far off from what the Statesmen like to see on the OL. With a young group of starters in spring camp, this recruiting class should help in building out more depth in the OL which is a key element of a DeWall coached team.

Tight End (TE) - 1
Pierce

Most FY players don't see a lot of action, but Pierce could be an exception given his size (6'2" 245 lbs) and good hands. The Statesmen could benefit from a strong, blocking TE for certain formations, and Pierce fits the bill, at least on paper.

Running Back (RB) - 2
Denham and Walsh

Not a big need, but both of these runners have good size and speed. With only five to six RBs on the roster (sounds like the FB role is going away so players like JR FB Shane White will play RB going forward) these players add depth to this position.

Wide Receiver (WR) - 3
Bartosic, Schicke and Surra

The Statesmen are loaded at WR for 2019, but will graduate off a lot of talent after this season. Bartosic is a smaller guy (5'11" 170), but is very athletic. Schicke and Surra are both big targets (6'5" and 6'3") which can create match up problems for opposing defenses.

Quarterback (QB) - 3
Roberts, Robles and Pelletier

Each one of these QBs are fairly pro-typical in that they are tall (Roberts is 6'1" while Robles and Pelletier are both listed at 6'4") with strong arms. Which player comes out of this group as a potential future starter will depend on a number of factors. Hobart only has two QBs on the roster, so this is a plan for the future also.

Special Teams (ST) - 1 
Amaral

I have to say I was a little surprised by this add given JR PK Kyle Hackett is set to rewrite the Hobart record book and has two more years of eligibility. He also has an understudy in SO PK Rob DiGregorio. Still, competition and depth is always a good thing, and this could be a move to alleviate the punting duties taken on by SR WR John DelliSanti after the Brockport game last season. To his credit however, Hobart ended up leading the LL in net punts, so maybe that won't change in 2019 and this is more of a longer term play for the kicking game.

That gets you to 29 and brings the overall roster count to 97, which is pretty typical for a D3FB squad.

That wraps up all the news on the Class of 2023. I will try and get to a recap of the Block H awards dinner, which occurred on Monday night, April 29th, later this week.

Thanks for stopping by the blog and go 'Bart!

Coach DeWall Announces Class of 2023 - Part Five

The final group (last but certainly not least) of commitments to the Hobart College Class of 2023 were announced this week by HC Kevin DeWall '00.

All in all, the Statesmen should have 29 FY players slated to for preseason camp. It's a smaller class than in past years, but the quality is high and with a large number of rising SO and JRs on the team there will be plenty of competition across the board.

Let's meet the "Final Four" student athletes that'll make up the Class of 2023:

Another "Strong Islander", GCHS DL Connor Gunn will be heading Upstate in the fall. At 6'3" 220 lbs Gunn will likely be looked at as a DE. His highlight reel shows his athleticism as an OL/DL. On defense he lined up both on the interior and the edge, and shows his potential as a pass rusher.

Making a much shorter drive to Geneva is PMHS WR Braydon Surra. His highlight reel shows he can line up wide or in the slot, runs good routes and uses his height (6'3" 175 lbs) to his advantage.

From the "Peach State" is a rare recruit in SFHS DB Josh Harps-Zhu (Alpharetta, GA which is just north of Atlanta). A rangy (6'2" 155 lbs) cover corner, JHZ's highlight reel can handle press coverage or lower the boom as a tackler. I'm trying to think, but don't recall Hobart ever enrolling a player from GA, so this could be a first.

Last but definitely not least is another recruit from my neck of the woods - Orlando! WHS QB Sean Robles is a tall (6'4" 200 lbs) and strong armed thrower. I noted in his highlight reel his completing passes against our local HS team (Winter Park). He'll join Cade Cecere as the second Orlando area player on this year's Statesmen squad.

That's it for recruiting updates. I'll post news as it comes up over the summer.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Players Take to Twitter to Commit to the Statesmen

Although we've gotten to know 24 members of the Class of 2023, the 25th ended up being the Pingree School's Vito Visconti (originally from North Andover, MA). His highlight reel shows Visconti is a real play maker. As a LB he quickly scrapes, plugs gaps and has an eye for the football. He caused several turnovers - FF, scoop and scores, and INTs for his team.

Here's his announcement on his commitment to Hobart:

One of his new teammates, who we previewed yesterday, PK Lucas Amaral (Danbury, CT), had this to say:

With a still about a handful more of new players yet to be introduced, we will keep you posted on these announcements as they are made later this week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Coach DeWall Announces Class of 2023 - Part Four

I hope everyone had a Happy Easter and Passover.

Hobart Football HC Kevin DeWall '00 continued his daily social media announcements of the incoming FY class this morning, adding these four to last week's group.

I had previously noted Bishop Ireton HS LB Tyler Duckett back on March 12. While he's listed as a LB, he played more of a strong / deep safety role in HS. Standing 6'1" and weighing in at 195 lbs, he has a lot of upside and could be an asset at LB, OLB or SS.

The other three players are new to me, so let's meet them now:

JR PK Kyle Hackett may be re-writing the Statesmen record book this fall, but his successor in a couple of seasons could be Danbury HS PK Lucas Amaral. Hobart also will need a new punter after the graduation of SR WR John DelliSanti, so Amaral's timing appears to be is as good as his leg. His highlight reel shows he's pretty automatic inside 40 yards on FGs, PATs and does a nice job on KOs.

Staying very close to home is Geneva HS OL Nate Trowbridge. Although there wasn't much information on Trowbridge online football-wise (his hudl highlight reel is only a 10-second clip from a game against Waterloo HS), he's clearly a good student, having won the Finger Lakes Federal Credit Union Laurie Monahan Memorial Scholarship. While GHS sends kids to HWS every year, Nate will be the only Panthers grad on next season's squad.

While most of Zach William's highlight reel focuses on his playing OL, the Hobart coaching staff is bringing the THS grad in as a DE. He played both two and three technique, showing good pursuit and knack for making plays around the football.

Please join me in welcoming these four new Statesmen into the Hobart Football family!

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Coach DeWall Announces Class of 2023 - Part Three

Today four more incoming FY recruits were announced by Hobart HC Kevin DeWall '00. Two of them - the Hun School DB Blake Hansen and Reedy HS QB Peyton Roberts - were previously profiled on this blog back on 2/9/19 and 3/25/19, respectively.

Not to downplay these strong additions - I could see Hansen especially making an impact in the secondary early in his college career - but let's meet two new recruits that haven't been covered yet on the blog:

Another player from the Nutmeg State, Brunswick's (Greenwich, CT) Eli Fowler played both interior DL and LT for the Bruins. His team featured a Gatorade State FB Athlete of the Year, finishing 8-2 overall. His highlight reel shows that Fowler uses his length (6'6") to hold off would be pass rushers. While a little undersized (250 lbs) to play T in college, he shows good potential as an OL recruit given his technique.

Hobart has had a good history of finding tough, hard-working players from "Strong Island" and Michael O'Grady is the latest. O'Grady appears to have been a hybrid player at CHS (Mineola, NY), as his highlight reel shows him lined up in two and three technique, on the interior of the DL, as well as occasionally lining up like a LB and blitzing. He has more of a LB build at 6' 215 lbs, so it'll be interesting to see how the coaching staff utilizes this versatile athlete.

That's the latest on the Class of 2023. 20 strong student athletes so far and more to come next week.

Wishing everyone a good Passover Week and Happy Easter weekend.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Coach DeWall Announces Class of 2023 - Part Two

As stated in my previous post, there were five incoming Hobart College Statesmen student athletes that somehow slipped past my recruiting radar. These players and a short synopsis of each is listed below:

Alex Barnosky comes to Hobart from Western (Sheffield) MA after a solid career as a FS / WR for BHS. His highlight reel shows he's a strong run stuffer and "center fielder" with good vision. At 6' 2" he's a bit taller than past Hobart DBs and the S&C program will add weight to his 170-175 lbs frame. He looks like he could be an asset to special teams as an incoming FY, given strong play as a PR and tackler on the BHS KO unit.

I'm always a fan of CT kids, and SR DHS WR Chris Bartosic is the first of two in this group. Bartosic's highlight reel shows he's a strong runner after the catch, especially on underneath, crossing routes. While on the smaller side at 5'11" 170 lbs, he plays much bigger and doesn't shy away from contact.

AOF SR DB Cameron Inwood comes from my hometown of Avon, CT. He'll join former teammate and rising SO OL Pierce Smyth as the second "Winged Beaver" (that's the unique AOF mascot) on the Hobart FB team. His highlight reel shows he can play both CB or SS, which will be helpful as Coach Hadley continues to improve the Statesmen secondary.

SR DL Dabryn Norris (Ashburn, VA) will be the second SBHS player on the Statesmen FB team this fall, joining rising JR OL Dillon Carey. Norris contributed 69 total tackles to go with 13 TFL and 12 sacks in his SR season. His highlight reel shows he can play inside or outside as either a DT or DE. He's a strong pass rusher with good size and wing span at 6'4" 265 lbs.

SR MLHS WR Jake Schicke is a tall (6'5") and rangy (195 lbs) who starred on the hardwood (as a small forward and shooting guard) as much as the gridiron. Jake's highlight reel shows him  making several leaping catches over smaller DBs. His height and wingspan will definitely make him a match up problem for opposing teams. He should be very comfortable in a Statesmen uniform, as it appears his HS and college color schemes are basically the same (not to mention there being over 10+ players from the Garden State on the current roster).

Please join me in welcoming these incoming FY student athletes to the Hobart Football family!

As always, thanks for reading and go 'Bart!