The Hobart Statesmen (5-3, 3-2) will be playing for pride and for a potential, but not guaranteed, shot at an ECAC “regional bowl” when they host their oldest rivals, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (3-5, 2-3). This Saturday at Boswell Field, the Statesmen will recognize their graduating senior class which includes the following student athletes:
7 WR Mike Lazore
18 SS Fernando Jones
21 FB Matt Howard
22 CB Nick Bianchi
29 FB Shlomo Gelernter
30 FS and Co-Capt John Kelliher
31 WR Kevin Grogan
39 OLB and Co-Capt Kyle O’Laughlin
55 OL and Co-Capt Sean Kluber
57 DE Chris Luber
64 OL and Co-Capt Kelvin Cruz
97 DE James Rayhill
Hobart and Rochester will face off for the “Centennial Cup” in the 103rd game between the two schools. The rivalry dates back to 1892 and the Statesmen have a slight 48-47-7 edge overall in the series, mostly in part to the fact Hobart has won six straight against the Yellow Jackets. The Statesmen defeated Rochester 34-20 at Fauver Stadium last season. The Yellow Jackets’ last win came in 2003, a 17-13 win at Boswell Field.
After a tough start to the 2010 season, including the loss of their All-League RB Clarence Onyiriuka, the Jackets have won their last three straight, including a dominating 34-14 win of LL champions Saint Lawrence (4-5, 4-1). In fact, including the 24-14 victory over Alfred (who won the Empire 8 after a convincing 31-16 win over Ithaca last Saturday); Rochester has knocked off two NCAA qualifiers in the last two weeks.
The Yellow Jackets defense has been the primary reason holding their last three opponents to only two touchdowns a game. The rush defense has also seen a resurgence as Rochester has allowed only 20 and 52 yards rushing, respectively, in the last two games.
Keys to the Game:
1. Turnovers – Hobart committed 4 turnovers in last week’s loss to RPI. The Statesmen had five turnovers in their loss to SLU. In general this category has really hurt Hobart all season and they are ranked at -7 in turnover margin, the worst in the LL. WEOS play-by-play man Ted Baker emailed me the following stats which shows that Hobart to the extent turnovers have steadily increased in the past few seasons:
2009: +3, ranked 4th in the LL in turnover margin
2008: +4, 3rd
2007: +18, 1st
2006: +4, 3rd
2005: +12, 1st
2004: +19, 1st
2003: +11, 2nd
On a more positive note, Hobart has been less turnover prone at home, e.g., of Doug Vella's 11 interceptions on the season, only two have occurred at Boswell Field.
2. Air it out – The Statesmen's #1 passing offense (averaging 235.1 YPG) should look to test Rochester’s pass defense given it ranks last in the LL allowing 206.4 YPG and 13 passing TDs (also last in the LL).
3. Bend, but don’t break – Hobart will need to brace itself for a Yellow Jacket offense that has risen to third in the conference gaining 302.9 YPG. In spite of this success, Rochester has only punched in 15 TDs, compared to the Statesmen’s 31. If the Hobart defense can clamp down – especially in the red zone where Rochester is second only to the Statesmen in red zone offense (75% - 15 scores, including 12 TDs and three FGs in 20 trips - compared to Hobart’s 80% - 17 TDs and three FGs on 25 trips) – the Statesmen should prevail.
4. Senior Day / Hall of Fame Weekend – Hobart is a much better home than road team and this weekend also marks Head Coach Mike Cragg’s induction into the Hobart Athletics Hall of Fame which is a rare and unique, but also well deserved, accomplishment for an active coach. Hobart has also not finished a regular season with less than six wins since 1999, so here’s hoping that trend continues on Saturday.
Prediction:
As I stated last Sunday on “In the HuddLLe” (www.inthehuddlle.com) I have to give a slight edge to Rochester given how well they have played in recent weeks. The Statesmen have been inconsistent during the same time frame – looking dominant, but letting Merchant Marine come back from a 23-0 deficit, dominating WPI, then turning the ball over four times against RPI en route to a heart breaking loss.
That said, I will take a leap of (partisan) faith and assume that Boswell Field, Senior Day, HOF weekend and the fact a potential berth into an ECAC game is on the line will allow the Statesmen to prevail in a close contest.
I’ll take Hobart to rebound and to win this weekend, 31-20.
Kickoff is 12 PM ET.
We’ll be recapping this game as well as welcoming the Chair of the DIII Football Championship Selection Committee onto “In the HuddLLe” as well as getting reactions to the ECAC bids (also out on Sunday night with Hobart hopefully getting a bid) so hope you can tune into our show at 7:30 PM ET on BlogTalkRadio.com!
Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!
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