The Hobart Statesmen (5-2, 3-1) will take on another group of Engineers, this time the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (4-3, 2-2), on Saturday in Troy, NY. The Statesmen’s league leading scoring and total offense will look to best the league’s current #1 scoring and #2 total defense in Saturday’s showdown at the “ECAV”. RPI is holding their opposition to 16.3 points per game (PPG) and has allowed the fewest number of touchdowns (15 TDs) in the Liberty League.
Last year Hobart blanked the Engineers by a score of 10-0 at Boswell Field in a defensive struggle that saw both offenses complete only two third down conversions (out of 32) the entire game. Overall the Statesmen and RPI have faced off 52 times since 1910 with the Engineers enjoying a slight edge in the series (26-25-1), but Hobart has had RPI’s number of late. The Statesmen went 8-2 vs. the Engineers in the last decade and haven’t lost to the men from Troy since former QB Jimmy Robertson took advantage of a soft Hobart prevent defense to the tune of 67 yards in 35 seconds to lead the Engineers a 35-31 victory in the final 48 seconds of that game.
This season RPI is lead on offense by SO QB Mike Hermann. This QB is a big guy (6’ 6”, 240 lbs) who is first in the LL in total offense with 212.7 yards per game (YPG). Hermann has passed for 1159 yards, including nine passing touchdowns compared to five interceptions. Hermann is also a threat to run the ball and currently ranks seventh in rushing in the LL, posting 330 yards rushing and one touchdown on the season.
Hermann’s favorite target is SR WR Pat McCarthy who racked up LL Offensive Player of the Week honors due to a game-high eight catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns in last weekend’s “Dutchman Shoes” game, a 21-7 victory over Union College (2-5, 2-3). McCarthy is complimented by a duo of dynamic receivers including SO WR Austin Caswell (24 catches for 218 yards and four TDs) and SR WR Ray Davis (13 catches for 130 yards and one TD).
When Hermann is not passing or calling his own number in the running game, the Engineers feature a tandem of backs. SO RB Matt Wood has carried the ball 54 times for 220 yards and SR RB Nick Costa has carried 68 times for 202 yards. Both Wood and Costa have scored one rushing touchdown a piece. Wood also handles return duties for the Engineers.
On defense the Engineers are lead by SR LB Jeff McCormick who’s tallied 72 total tackles including six and a half tackles for a loss (TFL) and a sack. Graduate student and LB Colin King, nephew of RPI HC Joe King, has added 56 tackles including five TFL and a sack and an interception.
Special teams is also a strength of RPI as they boast one of the LL’s best kickers, SR Peter Nilson, who is tied for first in field goal percentage making seven of 11 tries with a long of 37 yards.
Keys to the game:
1. Turnovers – RPI ranks second in the LL with a +4 turnover margin. Last season Hobart took advantage of two Engineer turnovers – first being a fumble on a punt that set up a 28 yard Conor Callahan FG and the second being a John Kelliher interception of Hermann at the Hobart 46 and returning it 43 yards to the RPI 11. A few plays later, RB Andrew Marlier ‘10 punched in the only TD for either team on the day. Hermann was picked three times in last year’s contest, but he’s a year older and wiser coming into this game. Although Hermann trails Vella in passing yards, touchdowns and efficiency; the SO has thrown four less interceptions than the Hobart QB.
2. Balance – Hobart and RPI’s rushing and pass defense are virtually even, with the Engineers allowing a few less YPG than the Statesmen. The difference in the game could be Hobart’s passing attack as the Statesmen are currently #1 in the LL averaging 233 YPG thru the air. That said I wouldn’t be surprised to see a defensive struggle with Hobart having to grind out tough yards like they did in 2009. Hobart racked up 156 yards rushing in that game. The Engineers made the passing game virtually non-existent holding QB Doug Vella to a season low 37 yards passing and an interception. However, RPI has only allowed five rushing TDs this season, so FY RB Steven Webb may not see the end zone as much as he has in prior weeks, thus putting the game in the hands of Vella and his trio of WRs Muratori, Woodard and Lazore. Last season Hobart negated McCarthy holding him to only two catches for 14 yards. If the Statesmen can force Hermann to try and run the ball himself, we could see some hurried throws (or fumbles) that could lead to turnovers for RPI.
3. Focus (i.e., just win) – The Statesmen will likely know the outcome of the Rochester vs. Saint Lawrence game as early as the first quarter given the later kickoff against RPI (this game is 2 pm start, while the Saints and Jackets game starts at 12 pm). It is possible that the Statesmen could have a letdown if the Saints win and know their NCAA hopes are dashed. Obviously the Statesmen would be bolstered by a Saints loss, but it is my hope that Hobart will remain focused regardless of the outcome.
Prediction:
I think this game will come down to quarterback play and the respective defenses. Hobart put together one its most dominant defensive games of the season forcing five WPI turnovers, including a fumble return for a TD. RPI’s defensive is equally stout and hasn’t given up more than three touchdowns all season since a 42-21 loss to Utica College back in September. By comparison, the Engineer offense is only averaging 15 PPG, less than half what the Statesmen have been scoring each week.
Needless to say, something’s got to give in this game.
That said I’ll take Hobart in close one 24-17 and hope the Saints get stung by Yellow Jackets keeping Hobart’s NCAA hopes on life support until the regular season finale.
No comments:
Post a Comment