The Statesmen will get an extra week of practice to prep for this key Week 10 LL show-down, with the winner being in excellent position to lock down second place by season's end. The reason that honor has become more important was the creation of the LL-E8 New York State Bowl game from last season.
It is possible that Hobart could end up in this game, tentatively scheduled to be hosted by the E8 runner up (LL hosts on odd years) on Saturday, November 17th, based on a couple of different scenarios. Regardless, "In the (D3FB) Huddle" will welcome LL Commissioner Tracy King back on the show to reveal which teams will be playing in that game after Week 11 is in the books. More on that later.
While it's possible that a tiebreaker scenario could still happen with #17 RPI (6-0, 2-0), but based on their three final opponents - Rochester (1-5, 0-2), SLU and Union (5-2, 1-2) - I would be very surprised if the Engineers didn't end up 5-0. Even if they were tripped up by Union in the season finale, they'd still win the LL Pool A playoff bid based on H2H wins over IC and Hobart.
So, if we take the RPI / LL tiebreaker scenario out of the equation, we can hypothesize the following:
Scenario 1:
- Hobart beats Ithaca and SLU to finish the season 6-3, 4-1
This to me is the obvious best case scenario for the Statesmen. A win over Ithaca will be tough to come by, but it's certainly not out of the question. In this scenario Hobart would be the clear second place team in the LL and would be offered the LL NYS Bowl bid based on my understanding of league guidelines.
Given Cortland will play #3 Brockport (7-0, 5-0) in Week 10 and the Dragons (6-1, 4-1), barring an upset, they will likely end the regular season with a 5-2 E8 record (assuming they lose to the Golden Eagles but beat Saint John Fisher and Hartwick, who are currently a combined 3-10). Cortland lost to Alfred in Week 4, 38-33, so the Saxons would hold a H2H tiebreaker over the Dragons for second place in the E8. This is also assuming Alfred (4-3, 3-2) wins out against Hartwick, Fisher and Rochester (not exactly a murderer's row).
Scenario 2:
- Hobart loses to Ithaca, but beats SLU to finish the season 5-4, 3-2
Obviously less than ideal, but this scenario does not eliminate Hobart from a NYS Bowl invite, necessarily. Here's why - the Bombers played Alfred in Week 3 (a 21-13 win) and will play Cortland in Week 11. Last season Ithaca finished as the LL runner up given the H2H loss to RPI, but opted to accept an ECAC Bowl game invite instead of having to play E8 runner up Cortland once again. Instead, the LL and E8 elevated Union, the LL's 2017 third place team (they had a H2H win over 3-2 Hobart), into the inaugural NYS Bowl game.
A similar situation could occur again, given IC has already played several E8 teams this season and would likely look for a new opponent, probably in another ECAC game. In this scenario, this year, Hobart would have the H2H win over Union, so even if the Dutchmen managed to get to 3-2 in LL play, the Statesmen would have the edge. This scenario basically assumes SLU goes 2-8, 1-4 to wrap the season, which is obviously would be bad for Saints fans, but certainly given their struggles, could also be a real possibility.
Obviously there are a lot of "what if's"and lots of games yet to be played in the above, but what else can we talk about during a bye week with the postseason only three weeks away?
Ultimately the main focus for Hobart has to be on beating Ithaca, but for us fans, this is good water cooler type of stuff to tide us over until next week. Anyway, I predict Hobart at Alfred on 11/17 - you know where you read it first.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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