The Liberty League conference opener is finally upon us and after a football-less weekend (well, credit the Statesmen JV team for rallying from being down 24-0 beating Saint John Fisher 35-32 on Sunday of Homecoming Weekend), I'm ready to put Weeks 1-5 in the rear view mirror.
Hobart (2-2) will take on long-time LL rivals Union College (4-0) in what's certainly a must-win game for the Statesmen. While a loss wouldn't mathematically eliminate Hobart from postseason contention, it probably would for all intents and purposes.
This will be the 102nd meeting of the two teams with the Dutchmen holding a slight 51-48-2 overall series edge. They beat Hobart last season, 28-23, after capitalizing on Statesmen mistakes to take a 21-3 lead with about a minute remaining in the 3rd quarter. Although Hobart would rally, it was too little, too late and the Statesmen's seven game win streak over Union was finally snapped.
Scouting the Dutchmen
This year Union College brings a really balanced team, probably one of the best they've had since their 10-0 undefeated regular season in 2005. The Dutchmen's recent success really starts with their defense, which is one of the best in the nation. The Dutchmen are tied for 8th nationally in scoring defense with #4 Brockport (4-0), allowing 8.25 PPG. Union is 10th nationally in total defense allowing 212.5 YPG. Teams are struggling to convert on 3rd downs against this unit, as the Union has only allowed 14-56 conversion attempts (25%) and 3-11 on 4th down (27%) this season.
The defense is led by SR LB Jack Reilly (a 1st team All-Conference player in 2017), who has 10.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks, as Union's pass rush really comes off blitzes instead of their front three. While JR DE Vincent DiCaterino, SR NG Bobby Law and SR DE Phil Pancini are a strong and experienced group, their stats are relatively modest (only two sacks and 4.5 TFL between all three players). This front is mostly there to plug gaps and allow guys like Reilly (26 tackles), SO LB Colin Lama (who leads the team with 30 tackles, including one TFL), SR LB Hunter Ordukhanyan (27 tackles, one TFL and one sack) and JR LB Evan Gilland (16 tackles, one TFL and one INT) to swarm to the ball.
The defensive secondary is led by SR CB Tucker Newman. He has two INTs on the season to go with 10 tackles. The other corner is JR CB Paul Chambers and the two safeties are SR SS Sebastien Lubrano and JR S Joe Vanderhoof. The latter only has six tackles on the season, which shows you how well the Dutchmen front seven is playing.
The Union offense is vastly improved and cruising well under the direction of SO QB Will Bellamy. He has passed for 1,231 yards (89-135-1 or 65.93%) and 13 TDs (307.75 YPG - which is in the Top 25 of offensive players nationally).
He has a trio of receivers which is led by FY WR Andre Ross, Jr with 31 catches for 619 yards and eight TDs. JR WR Griffin Beal was the number one target last season, but he's taken a back seat to Ross, Jr. He's still a viable possession WR though, catching 22 passes for 252 yards and four TDs. Rounding out the trio is SR WR Chris Nicholas. While Nicholas sees less passes, but his average demands the Statesmen pay attention to him. Nicholas has 11 receptions for 168 yards, one of those going for 55 yards, so he can get behind defenses. SR TE Pat Ryan is really a blocker, but his one catch, for three yards, was good for TD in the Week 4 game against Curry (2-3).
The OL is a younger one like the Statesmen's, but they have the advantage of starting all of the games in the 2017 season and into this year making them a very cohesive unit. The upperclassmen are SR RT Alex Hamilton and JR RG Turner Geenty. A trio of SO OL C Ryan Ehrets, SO LG Chris Katchadurian and SO LT Teddy Hood are the remaining starters. They aren't a very big group - they average out around 270 lbs - but they are effective pass blocking and opening holes for the Dutchmen RBs.
While SO RB Travis Demby has been listed as the "starter", he is really not the feature back. That honor goes to FY RB Ike Irabor who's been really impressive so far. He leads the team with 294 rushing yards, 5 TDs and an impressive 6.4 YPC average.
On special teams the Dutchmen FG specialist is SO PK Marcus Rodriguez. He has converted 2-4 FGs with a long of 28 while adding 20 PATs. His weaker leg is likely the reason Union has gone for it eight times on 4th down this season, converting six times. JR PK Will Halpin III is the KO specialist and punter. He's averaged 53.9 YPK on KOs and 38.41 on punts, dropping nine inside the opponents 20 yard line and forcing five fair catches.
Beal has typically handled KORs - albeit only four which is the most on the team since the defense rarely allows TDs - averaging just over 25 YPR. PRs have been handled by Newman who has 10 for 120 yards, but with a long of 43, which skews his average a bit.
Keys to the Game:
1. Play Better on Defense - This Union offense is strong enough to score on Hobart right out of the gate and the last thing the Statesmen need is to fall behind early. If Hobart can force some early three and outs, maybe get a TOP or field position advantage, we'll have a game. If the Statesmen defense plays like they have before the break, it's going to be a long day.
2. Run the Ball - SO RB Dakota Harvey showed a decent amount of rust in his return to action against Endicott (3-2). Hopefully the bye week has done him (and the OL) some good. The Dutchmen will stack the box and look to make the Statesmen one-dimensional. Reilly will blitz at will, looking to sack JR QB Ryan Hofmann or force him out of the pocket and into mistakes, like what we saw in the Endicott game. To help the run game, I would employ SO FB Shane White and/or JR FB Omari Davis to act as lead blockers to take on the aggressive gap-filling LBs that Union will be sending on most plays.
3. Play Smarter - The Statesmen have been penalized about -80 yards per game this season. You can't give away free yardage to a team like Union. The Dutchmen will come into this game cocky and confident, looking to rub Hobart's noses into the turf and ridicule them after having struggled against them for a better half of a decade. The Statesmen will need to play tough, but keep their composure, Saturday.
4. Have Pride - I know for a fact there will be a contingent of young alums in attendance to cheer on this year's Hobart team. That group never lost to Union, let alone to hardly anyone other than Top 10-25 caliber teams in the NCAA playoffs. These alums will be looking at this year's group to have pride in this rivalry and not fall again to the hated Dutchmen.
Prediction:
On paper this should be a 37-14 Union win.
Hobart's defense has not had a good game all season, save for SUNY-Morrisville (2-2) which will probably end up as a sub .500 team by the end of the 2018 season.
The Statesmen will need to play their best football game to have a chance. Hopefully with alumni in the house like Ali Marpet '15, these Hobart men will rise to the occasion. It's do or die time.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
👍🏈
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