The Hobart Statesmen will miss the NCAA playoffs for the second time in the last three seasons, after a disappointing performance at Union today. It was the Dutchmen's Homecoming, and the Statesmen (5-3, 1-2) played like the typical "patsy" for three quarters in a poor showing in a must-win, playoff style game.
The Statesmen finally realized their season was on line and scored three, fourth quarter TDs, but after a couple of onside kicks failed, that was it. It really does appear that the dominant run we Hobart fans enjoyed from 2011-16 is over. Time will tell if the Statesmen can get back to being a Top 10-25 type of program again, but losses like this will sting for some time.
The coaching staff will have to get back to the film (and the recruiting trail) to do what's needed to fix what's clearly broken in Geneva. It's really a shame, as this year's Statesmen team has so much talent all over the roster, but they have clearly under-performed after very high preseason expectations. At this point its even unlikely Hobart can qualify for the inaugural NYS Bowl game on November 18th looking up to three other teams in the LL standings.
While I'm not sure what went wrong, all I can say is it once again a slow start, poor offensive execution and a worn out defense had the Statesmen behind the eight-ball to a gritty Dutchmen (7-1, 3-0) team that just seemed better-coached and prepared for today's match up. The defense hung in there for a long time, but offensive stalls and special teams mistakes took their toll.
SR QB Shane Sweeney seemed off, going 1-8 early in the game, always looking deep for SR WR Brandon Shed, but ultimately ended the day, 33-59 for 293 yards and one TD. SO LB Jedh Downey led all tacklers with 12 stops and he made 10 of those in the first half.
Hobart will have the next week off and hopefully the team can take some solace in travelling to Buffalo to cheer on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Ali Marpet '15.
Thanks for reading and please tune into the next episode of ITH where we recap this and all the other East Region action from this weekend.
Saturday, October 21, 2017
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
Week 8 - Union Game Preview
The Hobart College Statesmen and Union College Dutchmen have had a good rivalry over the years (or centuries, depending how you look at it), starting all the way back in 1896. The all-time series stands with Union having a slight, 48-50-2, edge. The Statesmen (5-2, 1-1) have caught up in recent years, thanks to a seven game winning streak going back to the 2010 season. Speaking of the 2010 season, that was the last time Union (6-1. 2-0) came into a game with Hobart with a better overall W/L record. That game made my "Best Games of the Last 20 Years" at #14, and introduced us to a young QB named Nick Strang '13, who would go on to make his mark for the Statesmen over the next couple of seasons.
Last season the Statesmen struggled against the Dutchmen in Geneva, trailing for significant parts of the game. Ultimately Hobart needed a 23-yard SR WR Brandon Shed TD with 2:16 remaining in the game and a defensive stand from their own 36 yard line as time expired, to rally and beat Union, 27-23.
With Ithaca's loss to RPI last Saturday, Saint Lawrence (1-5, 0-2) and Rochester's (2-4, 0-2) continuing to fade, Hobart can put itself into the "driver's seat" for the Liberty League's NCAA Playoff Automatic Qualifier (aka the Pool A bid) with a win over Union this Saturday in Schenectady.
Scouting the Dutchmen
The Dutchmen have won six straight, not necessarily against the best competition, but Union has managed to get the wins they have by a combination of a balanced offense and tough, bend-don't-break, defense.
JR QB Nick Cascione has come into his own, passing for 1,127 with 11 TDs (he's run into two TD scores as well), compared to seven INTs. He is highly accurate, going 107-159, competing 67.3% of his passes. Cascione's favorite target this season has been SR WR Alex Kaplanovich. The Don Bosco grad leads the Dutchmen with 35 catches for 439 yards and two TDs. SO WR Griffin Beal and JR WR Packy Brown have added 273 and 212 receiving yards, respectively, to go with three and two TDs apiece.
JR RB Connor Kinzelmann (shown above) leads the rushing attack with 376 yards and three TDs. He will be occasionally spelled by FY RB Travis Demby (188 yards) and JR RB Derek Khnazir (160 yards and one TD - although word has it that Khnazir is out with an injury so I don't expect him to play).
Defensively Union has a strong LB corps, led by SR LB Jake Lombardo. He's averaging about 10 TPG and he's added four TFL and three sacks to go with his team high 69 total tackles. JR LB Jack Reilly and SO DE Vincent DiCaterino have terrorized opposing backs, tallying 11 and 10.5 TFL, respectively. DiCaterino leads the Dutchmen defense with seven sacks. JR CB Tucker Newman has been a ball hawk this season, collecting five INTs to go with 32 tackles and six PBUs.
SR PK Jonathan Schaible has been fairly accurate, making 21-22 PATs and going 5-8 on FGs, with a long of 34 yards. SR PK Tyler Barnes is the punter, and he's averaged 39.05 YPP and has dropped 16 of his 38 punts inside the opposition's 20 yard line. SO PK Will Halpin typically handles KOs and he's averaged a very respectable 55.4 YPKO. The Dutchmen have used a wide variety of their skill players, including DBs like Newman, in the return game.
Keys to the Game:
1. Start Fast(er) - After seven games we have a decent amount data on the Statesmen, and what I've found is that they are slow starters. Of the 241 points scored this season, 63.5% of it (153 points) have come in the second half. The Hobart offense hasn't scored more than one TD in the first quarter in every game this season, save for Week 3 against Shenandoah. The Statesmen have scored zero points in the first quarter in Weeks 1, 2 and 5. Fortunately, the offense has been helped out by the defense which has only allowed 23 first quarter points this season, pitching shutouts in Weeks 2, and 4-6. Interestingly enough, Hartwick was the first team to score on the Statesmen in the 1st quarter since Shenandoah did it to open the Homecoming game. What's given Hobart fans some heartburn is the fact the Statesmen have only out-scored their opposition 47-46 in the second quarter, hence a lot of close games at halftime. While it's great to be a "second half team" (and they clearly are, outscoring opponents 153-66 after the break), it would be nice to get off to a fast start Saturday at Union.
2. Pass (and Ball) Protection - The Dutchmen are tough against the run, allowing only 92.5 rushing YPG and five rushing TDs all season (and one of those TDs was a last second score-padding one by Husson in Week 1). By contrast, opponents have averaged 207.43 YPG passing and 10 receiving TDs. What's helped Union is their opportunistic defense which has forced 15 fumbles, recovering 11 of those to add to 11 INTs of opposing QBs. Overall it would appear as though the Dutchmen are +11 in turnover margin, so obviously the Statesmen will need to protect SR QB Shane Sweeney against an aggressive pass rush (which has 20 sacks and 43 TFLs for -202 yards this season), and focus on ball control.
3. SOS - While I alluded to it above, and certainly the Statesmen can't afford to be overconfident against a revived Union program, the fact is the Dutchmen haven't played a schedule as tough as Hobart's. In fact, Union has a strength of schedule of 111 (according to D3football.com, based on NCAA methodology) compared to Hobart's, which is 36th (out of 248 teams in DIII). This tougher slate should have the Statesmen well prepared in what's effectively a playoff type of game between one of their oldest rivals.
Prediction:
Hobart has a lot riding on this one, and they should be excited about the opportunity this game presents them. It'll be tough to put up a lot of points on this defense that's only allowed 14.43 PPG, but the Dutchmen simply haven't faced a team of the Statesmen's caliber so far.
I do think this will be a low-scoring, defensive affair, unless the Statesmen offense can start out quickly and put the Dutchmen behind early. Union's offense is good, but only averages 24 PPG. If Hobart can get an early lead and let the defense attack, the Statesmen should be in good shape.
I'll take Hobart to win this one, 30-21 (probably with a late score or two since 35% - 84 - of the Statesmen's points have come in the fourth quarter).
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
Last season the Statesmen struggled against the Dutchmen in Geneva, trailing for significant parts of the game. Ultimately Hobart needed a 23-yard SR WR Brandon Shed TD with 2:16 remaining in the game and a defensive stand from their own 36 yard line as time expired, to rally and beat Union, 27-23.
With Ithaca's loss to RPI last Saturday, Saint Lawrence (1-5, 0-2) and Rochester's (2-4, 0-2) continuing to fade, Hobart can put itself into the "driver's seat" for the Liberty League's NCAA Playoff Automatic Qualifier (aka the Pool A bid) with a win over Union this Saturday in Schenectady.
Scouting the Dutchmen
*Photo credit - UnionAthletics.com
The Dutchmen have won six straight, not necessarily against the best competition, but Union has managed to get the wins they have by a combination of a balanced offense and tough, bend-don't-break, defense.
JR QB Nick Cascione has come into his own, passing for 1,127 with 11 TDs (he's run into two TD scores as well), compared to seven INTs. He is highly accurate, going 107-159, competing 67.3% of his passes. Cascione's favorite target this season has been SR WR Alex Kaplanovich. The Don Bosco grad leads the Dutchmen with 35 catches for 439 yards and two TDs. SO WR Griffin Beal and JR WR Packy Brown have added 273 and 212 receiving yards, respectively, to go with three and two TDs apiece.
JR RB Connor Kinzelmann (shown above) leads the rushing attack with 376 yards and three TDs. He will be occasionally spelled by FY RB Travis Demby (188 yards) and JR RB Derek Khnazir (160 yards and one TD - although word has it that Khnazir is out with an injury so I don't expect him to play).
Defensively Union has a strong LB corps, led by SR LB Jake Lombardo. He's averaging about 10 TPG and he's added four TFL and three sacks to go with his team high 69 total tackles. JR LB Jack Reilly and SO DE Vincent DiCaterino have terrorized opposing backs, tallying 11 and 10.5 TFL, respectively. DiCaterino leads the Dutchmen defense with seven sacks. JR CB Tucker Newman has been a ball hawk this season, collecting five INTs to go with 32 tackles and six PBUs.
SR PK Jonathan Schaible has been fairly accurate, making 21-22 PATs and going 5-8 on FGs, with a long of 34 yards. SR PK Tyler Barnes is the punter, and he's averaged 39.05 YPP and has dropped 16 of his 38 punts inside the opposition's 20 yard line. SO PK Will Halpin typically handles KOs and he's averaged a very respectable 55.4 YPKO. The Dutchmen have used a wide variety of their skill players, including DBs like Newman, in the return game.
Keys to the Game:
1. Start Fast(er) - After seven games we have a decent amount data on the Statesmen, and what I've found is that they are slow starters. Of the 241 points scored this season, 63.5% of it (153 points) have come in the second half. The Hobart offense hasn't scored more than one TD in the first quarter in every game this season, save for Week 3 against Shenandoah. The Statesmen have scored zero points in the first quarter in Weeks 1, 2 and 5. Fortunately, the offense has been helped out by the defense which has only allowed 23 first quarter points this season, pitching shutouts in Weeks 2, and 4-6. Interestingly enough, Hartwick was the first team to score on the Statesmen in the 1st quarter since Shenandoah did it to open the Homecoming game. What's given Hobart fans some heartburn is the fact the Statesmen have only out-scored their opposition 47-46 in the second quarter, hence a lot of close games at halftime. While it's great to be a "second half team" (and they clearly are, outscoring opponents 153-66 after the break), it would be nice to get off to a fast start Saturday at Union.
2. Pass (and Ball) Protection - The Dutchmen are tough against the run, allowing only 92.5 rushing YPG and five rushing TDs all season (and one of those TDs was a last second score-padding one by Husson in Week 1). By contrast, opponents have averaged 207.43 YPG passing and 10 receiving TDs. What's helped Union is their opportunistic defense which has forced 15 fumbles, recovering 11 of those to add to 11 INTs of opposing QBs. Overall it would appear as though the Dutchmen are +11 in turnover margin, so obviously the Statesmen will need to protect SR QB Shane Sweeney against an aggressive pass rush (which has 20 sacks and 43 TFLs for -202 yards this season), and focus on ball control.
3. SOS - While I alluded to it above, and certainly the Statesmen can't afford to be overconfident against a revived Union program, the fact is the Dutchmen haven't played a schedule as tough as Hobart's. In fact, Union has a strength of schedule of 111 (according to D3football.com, based on NCAA methodology) compared to Hobart's, which is 36th (out of 248 teams in DIII). This tougher slate should have the Statesmen well prepared in what's effectively a playoff type of game between one of their oldest rivals.
Prediction:
Hobart has a lot riding on this one, and they should be excited about the opportunity this game presents them. It'll be tough to put up a lot of points on this defense that's only allowed 14.43 PPG, but the Dutchmen simply haven't faced a team of the Statesmen's caliber so far.
I do think this will be a low-scoring, defensive affair, unless the Statesmen offense can start out quickly and put the Dutchmen behind early. Union's offense is good, but only averages 24 PPG. If Hobart can get an early lead and let the defense attack, the Statesmen should be in good shape.
I'll take Hobart to win this one, 30-21 (probably with a late score or two since 35% - 84 - of the Statesmen's points have come in the fourth quarter).
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
Saturday, October 14, 2017
Hobart Soars Past Hawks, 49-27
The Hobart College Statesmen faced off against the Hartwick College Hawks for the first time in 20 years today in Oneonta, NY. The Statesmen (5-2, 1-1) started off slow, trailing 10-0 and 17-7 thanks to two early SR WR Koree Reed receiving TDs.
Although the Hobart offense only had 19 plays in the first half, they made the most of them. SR WR Brandon Shed got the Statesmen on the board with a 63 yard TD catch and run, and SR RB Joe Letizia took a hand-off and ran 54 yards for a TD. Hobart took their first lead of the game, 21-20, after SR QB Shane Sweeney found SR TE Zach Withers on a broken play for a 33 yard TD play with 13 seconds before halftime.
Although the Hobart defense gave up 184 yards in the first quarter, they buckled down and held Hartwick (3-4, 2-2) to 146 yards and seven points down the stretch. The Statesmen defense also kept the Hawks out of the end zone, forcing Hartwick to kick two FGs in the first half.
The second half the Statesmen saw the Hawks' Reed scored his third TD of the game and brought Hartwick within 1, 28-27, after Hobart took it's opening drive of the third quarter and scored on a one-yard Letizia TD run.
After that Hobart pulled away, with Sweeney finding JR TE Matthew Wood twice and handing off to JR RB Tynard Barfield for a 49-27 win.
The Hobart defense had five players tally seven tackles in the game. SO OLBs Jayson Prince and David McCarthy each added INTs off of Hartwick SR QB Billy Pine. Pine finished the game with 330 passing yards and three TDs. Sweeney went 19-30 for 305 yards and four scores. Shed tallied 111 yards and a TD and Letizia led all rushers with 71 yards and two scores.
Up next is Union (6-1. 2-0) in a key LL match up given RPI (4-2, 1-1) beat Ithaca (3-3, 3-1) today, 27-14.
Hobart is in prime position take advantage of the LL tie-breaker, but they'll need to defeat Union next Saturday in Schenectady.
Although the Hobart offense only had 19 plays in the first half, they made the most of them. SR WR Brandon Shed got the Statesmen on the board with a 63 yard TD catch and run, and SR RB Joe Letizia took a hand-off and ran 54 yards for a TD. Hobart took their first lead of the game, 21-20, after SR QB Shane Sweeney found SR TE Zach Withers on a broken play for a 33 yard TD play with 13 seconds before halftime.
Although the Hobart defense gave up 184 yards in the first quarter, they buckled down and held Hartwick (3-4, 2-2) to 146 yards and seven points down the stretch. The Statesmen defense also kept the Hawks out of the end zone, forcing Hartwick to kick two FGs in the first half.
The second half the Statesmen saw the Hawks' Reed scored his third TD of the game and brought Hartwick within 1, 28-27, after Hobart took it's opening drive of the third quarter and scored on a one-yard Letizia TD run.
After that Hobart pulled away, with Sweeney finding JR TE Matthew Wood twice and handing off to JR RB Tynard Barfield for a 49-27 win.
The Hobart defense had five players tally seven tackles in the game. SO OLBs Jayson Prince and David McCarthy each added INTs off of Hartwick SR QB Billy Pine. Pine finished the game with 330 passing yards and three TDs. Sweeney went 19-30 for 305 yards and four scores. Shed tallied 111 yards and a TD and Letizia led all rushers with 71 yards and two scores.
Up next is Union (6-1. 2-0) in a key LL match up given RPI (4-2, 1-1) beat Ithaca (3-3, 3-1) today, 27-14.
Hobart is in prime position take advantage of the LL tie-breaker, but they'll need to defeat Union next Saturday in Schenectady.
Monday, October 9, 2017
Week 7 - Hartwick Game Preview
It's been 21 years since the Hobart College Statesmen's last trip to Oneonta, NY to face off against the Hartwick College Hawks. Hartwick (3-3, 2-2) and Hobart (4-2, 1-1) will resume a rivalry that ended in the 1997 season (a game I'm old enough to have followed and remember). That game was a 31-30 win by the Hawks as a late Statesmen rally came up short. Hobart won the 1996 game at Hartwick by a 42-27 margin, and made it onto Sportscenter for a fluky TD play by the Hawks. Former Statesmen Co-captain Tony Aguilar '97 had a pass ricochet off his helmet and into the hands of the opposing WR. While that play made the Sportscenter highlight reel, Aguilar got the last laugh with a 62 yard "pick six" to put the game away in the fourth quarter.
Hobart leads the (short) all-time series, 4-2, with games that have been scattered (including 1933, 1939, and 1994-97) over several decades. Although the Hawks haven't had a winning season since 2013, the Statesmen can't afford to look past what I'd call a "sneaky good" team.
This season Hartwick has been impressive offensively, and their three losses have come by a combined six points. The Hawks lost two, one-point games to Western Connecticut (4-1, 2-1) and Cortland (3-2, 2-1), respectively. They lost to Utica, 28-24, in Week 5 after the Pioneers (2-3, 1-2) scored on an eight-yard TD run with 28 seconds remaining in their game.
Scouting the Hawks
The Hawks bring a high-scoring offense averaging 37 PPG and 484 YPG, thanks to several of the top offensive players in the East Region. SR QB Billy Pine has already passed for nearly 2,000 yards this season and has 21 TDs to only five INTs. He was the 2016 NCAA Statistical Champion for passing yards per completion (17.92) and total offense (388.2 YPG) while ranking second nationally in pass yards per attempt with 10.07.
Pine's top targets are the pair of SR WR Koree Reed (819 receiving yards and 7 TDs) and SR WR Brad Garcia (665 receiving yards and 11 TDs). Reed was also the 2016 NCAA Statistical Champion with 1,606 receiving yards and an incredible 160.6 RYPG.
Hartwick uses a couple of runners to mix things up, SR RB Tito Pitchardo has rushed for 396 yards and three TDs and SO RB Ronald Ballard has added 287 yards and two TDs. Most of Ballard's stats came last weekend in a 52-34 win over Morrisville State, as he rushed for 151 yards and a TD as the featured back (probably because of an injury to Pitchardo who did not play).
Defensively the Hawks are allowing 27 PPG and 364.2 YPG. The Hartwick defense is led by two JR LBs in Mark Hackett (48 tackles and three INTs) and Josh Wilcox (43 tackles, four sacks and 7.5 TFL). Another player to keep an eye on is SR DB David Van Alstine, who may be small in size (5'6" 155 lbs) but has an eye for the football and is tied for the team lead in INTs with 3.
Van Alstine also stars on special teams, averaging 21.85 YPR and a TD on KOs. FY DB Matthew Scottman has handled the majority of punt returns, but Reed did make one PR last weekend against the Mustangs. Hartwick has a reliable kicker in SR PK Brian McGovern who's a perfect 5-5 on FGs (long of 36) this season while adding 27 PATs. McGovern also handles KOs, but only averages 40.8 yards on those, which could help Hobart with field position. The Hawks punter is Pine, the QB, and he's punted 14 times for 37.71 YPP average. The defense will have to keep an eye out for a potential quick kick play Saturday, as the Hawks are only 2-12 on fourth downs this season.
Keys to the game:
1. Clip the Wings - Hartwick averages 338.2 passing YPG and will be facing a Hobart defense that has really struggled at times against strong QBs. The Statesmen have allowed 266.8 YPG via the air, but that stat has been bolstered by the fact RPI only threw for 137 yards last Saturday. Pine is a much better QB than Trimpert, and will likely drop back at least 30-35 times against Hobart. The Statesmen have allowed opposing QBs to break 300 yards passing three times this season (vs. Brockport, vs. Shenandoah and vs. Ithaca), going 1-2 in those games. Needless to say, Hobart will need to keep the pressure on Pine up front all game.
2. The Run - I'm a broken record here, but the Statesmen's best defense will be to keep Pine, Reed and Garcia off the field and when they're in the game, pin them back by taking Ballard's ability to run the ball off the table. Offensively Hobart is averaging 150 rushing YPG and their stable of RBs have done very well in YPR:
SR RB Joe Letizia - 5.6 AVG
FY RB Dakota Harvey - 4.4 AVG (this number would be higher if not for last week's limited action of 7 carries for three yards and a TD)
SO RB Brian Haeffner - 6.4 AVG
JR RB Tynard Barfield - 5.2 AVG
Hartwick has allowed almost 180 rushing YPG and 12 rushing TDs this season. In their three losses, the Hawks opponents averaged 208 rushing YPG. Both WCSU and Cortland had over 100+ yard rushers, and Utica came close, with their QB rushing for 94 (and their RB adding 87 yards). Saint John Fisher rushed for 274 yards in Week 4, a 24-21 loss, but they couldn't stop Pine, who went 26-41 for 375 yards and three TDs.
3. Turnovers - Last weekend the Hobart defense killed RPI with three forced turnovers. The Statesmen offense turned over the ball as well, but it didn't cost them thanks to the stellar play of the D. Hartwick is +5 in TOM, so they can be opportunistic. The Statesmen will need to take better care of the ball than they did against RPI.
Prediction:
This game has the potential to be a shootout, but I think it may surprise some and end up being more of a defensive and field position battle. The Statesmen have the edge field position wise given better specialist players (on KOs and punting) than Hartwick, but otherwise you can say this is a pretty even match-up. While it won't count towards playoff consideration given its an OOC game, it would bode well for the Statesmen to keep the momentum going and get an important road win.
I'll pick Hobart to outlast Hartwick, 35-27.
Thanks for reading (and getting the blog to over 200k views!) and go 'Bart!
Hobart leads the (short) all-time series, 4-2, with games that have been scattered (including 1933, 1939, and 1994-97) over several decades. Although the Hawks haven't had a winning season since 2013, the Statesmen can't afford to look past what I'd call a "sneaky good" team.
This season Hartwick has been impressive offensively, and their three losses have come by a combined six points. The Hawks lost two, one-point games to Western Connecticut (4-1, 2-1) and Cortland (3-2, 2-1), respectively. They lost to Utica, 28-24, in Week 5 after the Pioneers (2-3, 1-2) scored on an eight-yard TD run with 28 seconds remaining in their game.
Scouting the Hawks
*photo credit to Hartwick Football's Facebook page
The Hawks bring a high-scoring offense averaging 37 PPG and 484 YPG, thanks to several of the top offensive players in the East Region. SR QB Billy Pine has already passed for nearly 2,000 yards this season and has 21 TDs to only five INTs. He was the 2016 NCAA Statistical Champion for passing yards per completion (17.92) and total offense (388.2 YPG) while ranking second nationally in pass yards per attempt with 10.07.
Pine's top targets are the pair of SR WR Koree Reed (819 receiving yards and 7 TDs) and SR WR Brad Garcia (665 receiving yards and 11 TDs). Reed was also the 2016 NCAA Statistical Champion with 1,606 receiving yards and an incredible 160.6 RYPG.
Hartwick uses a couple of runners to mix things up, SR RB Tito Pitchardo has rushed for 396 yards and three TDs and SO RB Ronald Ballard has added 287 yards and two TDs. Most of Ballard's stats came last weekend in a 52-34 win over Morrisville State, as he rushed for 151 yards and a TD as the featured back (probably because of an injury to Pitchardo who did not play).
Defensively the Hawks are allowing 27 PPG and 364.2 YPG. The Hartwick defense is led by two JR LBs in Mark Hackett (48 tackles and three INTs) and Josh Wilcox (43 tackles, four sacks and 7.5 TFL). Another player to keep an eye on is SR DB David Van Alstine, who may be small in size (5'6" 155 lbs) but has an eye for the football and is tied for the team lead in INTs with 3.
Van Alstine also stars on special teams, averaging 21.85 YPR and a TD on KOs. FY DB Matthew Scottman has handled the majority of punt returns, but Reed did make one PR last weekend against the Mustangs. Hartwick has a reliable kicker in SR PK Brian McGovern who's a perfect 5-5 on FGs (long of 36) this season while adding 27 PATs. McGovern also handles KOs, but only averages 40.8 yards on those, which could help Hobart with field position. The Hawks punter is Pine, the QB, and he's punted 14 times for 37.71 YPP average. The defense will have to keep an eye out for a potential quick kick play Saturday, as the Hawks are only 2-12 on fourth downs this season.
Keys to the game:
1. Clip the Wings - Hartwick averages 338.2 passing YPG and will be facing a Hobart defense that has really struggled at times against strong QBs. The Statesmen have allowed 266.8 YPG via the air, but that stat has been bolstered by the fact RPI only threw for 137 yards last Saturday. Pine is a much better QB than Trimpert, and will likely drop back at least 30-35 times against Hobart. The Statesmen have allowed opposing QBs to break 300 yards passing three times this season (vs. Brockport, vs. Shenandoah and vs. Ithaca), going 1-2 in those games. Needless to say, Hobart will need to keep the pressure on Pine up front all game.
2. The Run - I'm a broken record here, but the Statesmen's best defense will be to keep Pine, Reed and Garcia off the field and when they're in the game, pin them back by taking Ballard's ability to run the ball off the table. Offensively Hobart is averaging 150 rushing YPG and their stable of RBs have done very well in YPR:
SR RB Joe Letizia - 5.6 AVG
FY RB Dakota Harvey - 4.4 AVG (this number would be higher if not for last week's limited action of 7 carries for three yards and a TD)
SO RB Brian Haeffner - 6.4 AVG
JR RB Tynard Barfield - 5.2 AVG
Hartwick has allowed almost 180 rushing YPG and 12 rushing TDs this season. In their three losses, the Hawks opponents averaged 208 rushing YPG. Both WCSU and Cortland had over 100+ yard rushers, and Utica came close, with their QB rushing for 94 (and their RB adding 87 yards). Saint John Fisher rushed for 274 yards in Week 4, a 24-21 loss, but they couldn't stop Pine, who went 26-41 for 375 yards and three TDs.
3. Turnovers - Last weekend the Hobart defense killed RPI with three forced turnovers. The Statesmen offense turned over the ball as well, but it didn't cost them thanks to the stellar play of the D. Hartwick is +5 in TOM, so they can be opportunistic. The Statesmen will need to take better care of the ball than they did against RPI.
Prediction:
This game has the potential to be a shootout, but I think it may surprise some and end up being more of a defensive and field position battle. The Statesmen have the edge field position wise given better specialist players (on KOs and punting) than Hartwick, but otherwise you can say this is a pretty even match-up. While it won't count towards playoff consideration given its an OOC game, it would bode well for the Statesmen to keep the momentum going and get an important road win.
I'll pick Hobart to outlast Hartwick, 35-27.
Thanks for reading (and getting the blog to over 200k views!) and go 'Bart!
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Statesmen Shut Out RPI, 30-0
The Hobart College Statesmen needed a day like today.
After a 3-2 start, the Statesmen were on the verge of playoff elimination, and a visit from RPI (3-2, 0-1) was a big game. The Engineers had beaten Hobart two years in a row, but the third time would not be the charm.
The Statesmen (4-2, 1-1) offense had successful drives but had to settle for two FY PK Kyle Hackett FGs instead of TDs. The Hobart offense coughed up the ball twice, once on a fumble and an INT, but the defense stepped up, keeping RPI scoreless in the first half (and the rest of the game).
Two SR QB Shane Sweeney TDs would spark the Statesmen in the second half, the first to SO WR Jake Catalioto for 13 yards and the second to SR WR Brandon Shed for eight yards. That TD catch tied Shed for third all-time for consecutive games with a reception at 27. Hackett added one more FG, to extend his streak to a perfect 5-5, and FY RB Dakota Harvey added a late TD to seal the 30-0 win.
SR LB Almamy Conde had an INT and FR to go with four tackles. SR DL Zackary Robak led the defense with seven stops. A recap from HWSAthletics.com can be seen here.
Up next is Hartwick (3-3, 2-2) who beat Morrisville State, 52-34, today. Hobart has not faced off against the Hawks since the 1997 season.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
After a 3-2 start, the Statesmen were on the verge of playoff elimination, and a visit from RPI (3-2, 0-1) was a big game. The Engineers had beaten Hobart two years in a row, but the third time would not be the charm.
The Statesmen (4-2, 1-1) offense had successful drives but had to settle for two FY PK Kyle Hackett FGs instead of TDs. The Hobart offense coughed up the ball twice, once on a fumble and an INT, but the defense stepped up, keeping RPI scoreless in the first half (and the rest of the game).
Two SR QB Shane Sweeney TDs would spark the Statesmen in the second half, the first to SO WR Jake Catalioto for 13 yards and the second to SR WR Brandon Shed for eight yards. That TD catch tied Shed for third all-time for consecutive games with a reception at 27. Hackett added one more FG, to extend his streak to a perfect 5-5, and FY RB Dakota Harvey added a late TD to seal the 30-0 win.
SR LB Almamy Conde had an INT and FR to go with four tackles. SR DL Zackary Robak led the defense with seven stops. A recap from HWSAthletics.com can be seen here.
Up next is Hartwick (3-3, 2-2) who beat Morrisville State, 52-34, today. Hobart has not faced off against the Hawks since the 1997 season.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Week 6 - RPI Game Preview
The Hobart College Statesmen's season so far hasn't gone as planned, and they face another tough task as RPI (3-1, 0-0) returns to Boswell Field this weekend. The Engineers have defeated Hobart (3-2, 0-1) in consecutive seasons, each on last second-type plays.
Last season, RPI JR QB Ed Trimpert scored on a five-yard TD run with 20 seconds left to upset the Statesmen in Troy, by a score of 21-17. Hobart out-gained the Engineers 435 to 192 yards but 15 penalties for -148 yards, including a critical face-mask by the Statesmen on the kickoff of RPI's final possession, ended up coming back to haunt Hobart (particularly come playoff time when their 9-1 overall record resulted in a very poor RD1 draw, thanks to the NCAA Selection Committee).
The Engineers took back the lead in the all-time series with last year's win, 29-30-1. RPI is coming off a bye week, after dropping a 21-9 halftime lead in a 33-21 loss to Buffalo State (3-1, 1-1). Highlights from that matchup can be viewed here.
Scouting the Engineers
Last season, RPI JR QB Ed Trimpert scored on a five-yard TD run with 20 seconds left to upset the Statesmen in Troy, by a score of 21-17. Hobart out-gained the Engineers 435 to 192 yards but 15 penalties for -148 yards, including a critical face-mask by the Statesmen on the kickoff of RPI's final possession, ended up coming back to haunt Hobart (particularly come playoff time when their 9-1 overall record resulted in a very poor RD1 draw, thanks to the NCAA Selection Committee).
The Engineers took back the lead in the all-time series with last year's win, 29-30-1. RPI is coming off a bye week, after dropping a 21-9 halftime lead in a 33-21 loss to Buffalo State (3-1, 1-1). Highlights from that matchup can be viewed here.
Scouting the Engineers
*Photo courtesy of RPIAthletics.com
RPI brings a potent offense (33.25 PPG) and a tough defense (15.25 PPG) to the Boz this Saturday. JR QB Ed Trimpert once again leads the offense and has improved from his injury-plagued SO season. He's passed for 662 yards and 10 TDs, compared to three INTs. He's completed 52.38% of his passes, and has a high efficiency rating (183.5) bolstered by his good TD:INT ratio.
The Engineers have a strong OL and three good runners in JR RB Nick Cella (235 yards and two TDs), SR RB Ethan Wells (201 yards and three TDs) and SR RB Mike Tivinis (188 yards and one TD).
Trimpert's favorite targets in the passing game have been JR WR Keaton Ackerman (146 yards and two TDs) and SR RB Johnny Ramsdell (who's really more of a WR than RB, leading the team with 10 catches. He has 130 yards and two TDs lining up in the backfield and going out for passes). Not far behind them is JR WR Danny Calabro with four catches for 129 yards and a TD.
Defensively the RPI is led by SR DB Brian Hayes with 37 tackles. JR LB Brandt Beck has added 29 stops, an INT and two FFs. On the DL, SR DT Malik Joseph brings size (6'1" 310 lbs.) and pass rushing ability. SR DL Diego Cuitino (pictured above) is also an effective run-stuffer. SR DB Sean Egan is an excellent cover corner who did well against SR WR Brandon Shed last season. He's third on the team with 20 tackles and leads the Engineers with three INTs.
On special teams RPI once again boasts the best kicker in the LL with SR PK Christian Kapp. He has not missed a FG (2-2 with a long of 32) or a PAT (17-17) all season. In the one instance he had a PAT blocked, Kapp scooped it up and scored a two-point conversion. Kapp also handles KOs where he averages an impressive 62.5 YPKO. The punters for RPI have FY P Zac Montrief and SR P Matt Raczak who've averaged 35.42 and 37.33, respectively.
Keys to the Game:
1. The Run - The Engineers have basically doubled up their opponents rushing yardage this season (877:425), averaging 219.3 YPG offensively while limiting their opposition to only 106.3 YPG. The best defense Hobart has is keeping SR RB Joe Letizia and FY RB Dakota Harvey grinding out yards to limit RPI's trio of runners from wearing out the defense.
2. Turnovers - Three second half turnovers by the Engineers ended up being the difference in Buffalo State's comeback against RPI in Week 4. A couple of forced fumbles caused by the Bengals were later cashed in for TDs and a late INT by Trimpert sealed the win for Buff State. The Statesmen defense is +3 in turnover margin this season, and they'll need to remain in that plus-margin territory to help them win this game.
3. Just Win - The Statesmen aren't mathematically eliminated from the LL title and NCAA playoff picture just yet, but they must win this game to keep their hopes alive. If they can stay loose, but play with intensity and execute their game plan to the best of their ability, they'll have a chance to stay in the hunt.
Prediction:
On one hand, I expect a good amount of offense in this one, especially given Hobart's defensive struggles of late. The Statesmen defensive backfield will need to play their best game of the season and the LBs will need to be ready as the Engineers like to send RBs on short to mid-range routes.
On the other, the last two games have been more defensive battles, however, so I'll take Hobart to get back on track in a (very) close 28-24 contest.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
PS - On a personal note, Happy Birthday to my son, Declan! He's 11 today.
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
How the LL Tiebreaker Could Work in Hobart's Favor
Credit this to an IC fan from the d3boards.com Liberty League page:
Assuming RPI/Bart/IC win out in LL, except for RPI over IC [making all three teams tied in the conference standings at 4-1]. I'll also assume the following:
- Rochester loses to Union and St. Lawrence, so they have seven losses and are removed [likely]
- St. Lawrence loses to Brockport, so they have six and are out [very likely]
- Union gets to 5 with the win over Rochester [likely - what could throw this out the window however is if Union ends up in the 4-1 conversion because their easy OOC will likely have them in better position, but that's a big "if"]
This leaves us:
Hobart
Brockport: 5-0 Loss
Fisher: 0-4 Win
Shenandoah: 3-1 Win
Endicott: 1-4 Win
Hartwick: 2-3 not played
Union: Win
You're looking at 2-1, as I doubt Endicott and Fisher get to .500, and the Wick doesn't either (Not with Bart, Alfred, and Brockport on the docket)
RPI
WP: 0-4 Win
WPI: 3-2 Win
WNE: 3-2 Win
Buff State: 3-1 loss
Alfred: 5-0 Not played
Union: Win
I'm guessing Buff State finds themselves two wins (one will come against Fisher) and that they'll lose to Alfred [they did]. So, if WPI/WNE hold on, it's 3-2
Ithaca
Alfred 4-0 Loss
Brockport 5-0 loss
Utica 2-3 not played
Cortland 2-2 not played
Fisher: 0-4
Union: win
So you're 1-2, and the question is, can Utica and Cortland both get to .500 while losing to Ithaca, AND one of them losing to the other? This is going to be a tall order if Utica loses to Cortland, but it's possible.
So it looks like Hobart gets it, since the criteria is record, and 2-1 is better than 3-2.
Here's hoping this is a scenario that plays out, but it's got to start with a win on Saturday vs. RPI for the Statesmen. I'll have more on that matchup later this week.
Technically, the LL tie-breaker reads as follows:
In the sport of football, the league shall use the following tie-breaking formula to determine the automatic qualifier. Prior to using the formula to determine the automatic qualifier, co-champions would be declared.
1. Head-to-head results.
2. Comparison of records between tied institutions beginning with the lowest conference finisher and continuing through the highest conference finisher. If more than two teams are tied, at the point one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).
3. Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record of .500 or above. At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).
4. Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record below .500. At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).
5. Coin flip.
The wrinkle here is that the LL cites winning percentage, not just W/L.
More on this to come. Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
Assuming RPI/Bart/IC win out in LL, except for RPI over IC [making all three teams tied in the conference standings at 4-1]. I'll also assume the following:
- Rochester loses to Union and St. Lawrence, so they have seven losses and are removed [likely]
- St. Lawrence loses to Brockport, so they have six and are out [very likely]
- Union gets to 5 with the win over Rochester [likely - what could throw this out the window however is if Union ends up in the 4-1 conversion because their easy OOC will likely have them in better position, but that's a big "if"]
This leaves us:
Hobart
Brockport: 5-0 Loss
Fisher: 0-4 Win
Shenandoah: 3-1 Win
Endicott: 1-4 Win
Hartwick: 2-3 not played
Union: Win
You're looking at 2-1, as I doubt Endicott and Fisher get to .500, and the Wick doesn't either (Not with Bart, Alfred, and Brockport on the docket)
RPI
WP: 0-4 Win
WPI: 3-2 Win
WNE: 3-2 Win
Buff State: 3-1 loss
Alfred: 5-0 Not played
Union: Win
I'm guessing Buff State finds themselves two wins (one will come against Fisher) and that they'll lose to Alfred [they did]. So, if WPI/WNE hold on, it's 3-2
Ithaca
Alfred 4-0 Loss
Brockport 5-0 loss
Utica 2-3 not played
Cortland 2-2 not played
Fisher: 0-4
Union: win
So you're 1-2, and the question is, can Utica and Cortland both get to .500 while losing to Ithaca, AND one of them losing to the other? This is going to be a tall order if Utica loses to Cortland, but it's possible.
So it looks like Hobart gets it, since the criteria is record, and 2-1 is better than 3-2.
Here's hoping this is a scenario that plays out, but it's got to start with a win on Saturday vs. RPI for the Statesmen. I'll have more on that matchup later this week.
Technically, the LL tie-breaker reads as follows:
In the sport of football, the league shall use the following tie-breaking formula to determine the automatic qualifier. Prior to using the formula to determine the automatic qualifier, co-champions would be declared.
1. Head-to-head results.
2. Comparison of records between tied institutions beginning with the lowest conference finisher and continuing through the highest conference finisher. If more than two teams are tied, at the point one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).
3. Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record of .500 or above. At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).
4. Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record below .500. At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).
5. Coin flip.
The wrinkle here is that the LL cites winning percentage, not just W/L.
More on this to come. Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)