Week 8 - Union Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen and Union College Dutchmen have had a good rivalry over the years (or centuries, depending how you look at it), starting all the way back in 1896. The all-time series stands with Union having a slight, 48-50-2, edge. The Statesmen (5-2, 1-1) have caught up in recent years, thanks to a seven game winning streak going back to the 2010 season. Speaking of the 2010 season, that was the last time Union (6-1. 2-0) came into a game with Hobart with a better overall W/L record. That game made my "Best Games of the Last 20 Years" at #14, and introduced us to a young QB named Nick Strang '13, who would go on to make his mark for the Statesmen over the next couple of seasons.

Last season the Statesmen struggled against the Dutchmen in Geneva, trailing for significant parts of the game. Ultimately Hobart needed a 23-yard SR WR Brandon Shed TD with 2:16 remaining in the game and a defensive stand from their own 36 yard line as time expired, to rally and beat Union, 27-23.

With Ithaca's loss to RPI last Saturday, Saint Lawrence (1-5, 0-2) and Rochester's (2-4, 0-2) continuing to fade, Hobart can put itself into the "driver's seat" for the Liberty League's NCAA Playoff Automatic Qualifier (aka the Pool A bid) with a win over Union this Saturday in Schenectady.

Scouting the Dutchmen

*Photo credit - UnionAthletics.com

The Dutchmen have won six straight, not necessarily against the best competition, but Union has managed to get the wins they have by a combination of a balanced offense and tough, bend-don't-break, defense.

JR QB Nick Cascione has come into his own, passing for 1,127 with 11 TDs (he's run into two TD scores as well), compared to seven INTs. He is highly accurate, going 107-159, competing 67.3% of his passes. Cascione's favorite target this season has been SR WR Alex Kaplanovich. The Don Bosco grad leads the Dutchmen with 35 catches for 439 yards and two TDs. SO WR Griffin Beal and JR WR Packy Brown have added 273 and 212 receiving yards, respectively, to go with three and two TDs apiece.

JR RB Connor Kinzelmann (shown above) leads the rushing attack with 376 yards and three TDs. He will be occasionally spelled by FY RB Travis Demby (188 yards) and JR RB Derek Khnazir (160 yards and one TD - although word has it that Khnazir is out with an injury so I don't expect him to play).

Defensively Union has a strong LB corps, led by SR LB Jake Lombardo. He's averaging about 10 TPG and he's added four TFL and three sacks to go with his team high 69 total tackles. JR LB Jack Reilly and SO DE Vincent DiCaterino have terrorized opposing backs, tallying 11 and 10.5 TFL, respectively. DiCaterino leads the Dutchmen defense with seven sacks. JR CB Tucker Newman has been a ball hawk this season, collecting five INTs to go with 32 tackles and six PBUs.

SR PK Jonathan Schaible has been fairly accurate, making 21-22 PATs and going 5-8 on FGs, with a long of 34 yards. SR PK Tyler Barnes is the punter, and he's averaged 39.05 YPP and has dropped 16 of his 38 punts inside the opposition's 20 yard line. SO PK Will Halpin typically handles KOs and he's averaged a very respectable 55.4 YPKO. The Dutchmen have used a wide variety of their skill players, including DBs like Newman, in the return game.

Keys to the Game:

1. Start Fast(er) - After seven games we have a decent amount data on the Statesmen, and what I've found is that they are slow starters. Of the 241 points scored this season, 63.5% of it (153 points) have come in the second half. The Hobart offense hasn't scored more than one TD in the first quarter in every game this season, save for Week 3 against Shenandoah. The Statesmen have scored zero points in the first quarter in Weeks 1, 2 and 5. Fortunately, the offense has been helped out by the defense which has only allowed 23 first quarter points this season, pitching shutouts in Weeks 2, and 4-6. Interestingly enough, Hartwick was the first team to score on the Statesmen in the 1st quarter since Shenandoah did it to open the Homecoming game. What's given Hobart fans some heartburn is the fact the Statesmen have only out-scored their opposition 47-46 in the second quarter, hence a lot of close games at halftime. While it's great to be a "second half team" (and they clearly are, outscoring opponents 153-66 after the break), it would be nice to get off to a fast start Saturday at Union.

2. Pass (and Ball) Protection - The Dutchmen are tough against the run, allowing only 92.5 rushing YPG and five rushing TDs all season (and one of those TDs was a last second score-padding one by Husson in Week 1). By contrast, opponents have averaged 207.43 YPG passing and 10 receiving TDs. What's helped Union is their opportunistic defense which has forced 15 fumbles, recovering 11 of those to add to 11 INTs of opposing QBs. Overall it would appear as though the Dutchmen are +11 in turnover margin, so obviously the Statesmen will need to protect SR QB Shane Sweeney against an aggressive pass rush (which has 20 sacks and 43 TFLs for -202 yards this season), and focus on ball control.

3. SOS - While I alluded to it above, and certainly the Statesmen can't afford to be overconfident against a revived Union program, the fact is the Dutchmen haven't played a schedule as tough as Hobart's. In fact, Union has a strength of schedule of 111 (according to D3football.com, based on NCAA methodology) compared to Hobart's, which is 36th (out of 248 teams in DIII). This tougher slate should have the Statesmen well prepared in what's effectively a playoff type of game between one of their oldest rivals.

Prediction:

Hobart has a lot riding on this one, and they should be excited about the opportunity this game presents them. It'll be tough to put up a lot of points on this defense that's only allowed 14.43 PPG, but the Dutchmen simply haven't faced a team of the Statesmen's caliber so far.

I do think this will be a low-scoring, defensive affair, unless the Statesmen offense can start out quickly and put the Dutchmen behind early. Union's offense is good, but only averages 24 PPG. If Hobart can get an early lead and let the defense attack, the Statesmen should be in good shape.

I'll take Hobart to win this one, 30-21 (probably with a late score or two since 35% - 84 - of the Statesmen's points have come in the fourth quarter).

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!