Week 7 - Hartwick Game Preview

It's been 21 years since the Hobart College Statesmen's last trip to Oneonta, NY to face off against the Hartwick College Hawks. Hartwick (3-3, 2-2) and Hobart (4-2, 1-1) will resume a rivalry that ended in the 1997 season (a game I'm old enough to have followed and remember). That game was a 31-30 win by the Hawks as a late Statesmen rally came up short. Hobart won the 1996 game at Hartwick by a 42-27 margin, and made it onto Sportscenter for a fluky TD play by the Hawks. Former Statesmen Co-captain Tony Aguilar '97 had a pass ricochet off his helmet and into the hands of the opposing WR. While that play made the Sportscenter highlight reel, Aguilar got the last laugh with a 62 yard "pick six" to put the game away in the fourth quarter.

Hobart leads the (short) all-time series, 4-2, with games that have been scattered (including 1933, 1939, and 1994-97) over several decades. Although the Hawks haven't had a winning season since 2013, the Statesmen can't afford to look past what I'd call a "sneaky good" team.

This season Hartwick has been impressive offensively, and their three losses have come by a combined six points. The Hawks lost two, one-point games to Western Connecticut (4-1, 2-1) and Cortland (3-2, 2-1), respectively. They lost to Utica, 28-24, in Week 5 after the Pioneers (2-3, 1-2) scored on an eight-yard TD run with 28 seconds remaining in their game.

Scouting the Hawks

*photo credit to Hartwick Football's Facebook page

The Hawks bring a high-scoring offense averaging 37 PPG and 484 YPG, thanks to several of the top offensive players in the East Region. SR QB Billy Pine has already passed for nearly 2,000 yards this season and has 21 TDs to only five INTs. He was the 2016 NCAA Statistical Champion for passing yards per completion (17.92) and total offense (388.2 YPG) while ranking second nationally in pass yards per attempt with 10.07.

Pine's top targets are the pair of SR WR Koree Reed (819 receiving yards and 7 TDs) and SR WR Brad Garcia (665 receiving yards and 11 TDs). Reed was also the 2016 NCAA Statistical Champion with 1,606 receiving yards and an incredible 160.6 RYPG.

Hartwick uses a couple of runners to mix things up, SR RB Tito Pitchardo has rushed for 396 yards and three TDs and SO RB Ronald Ballard has added 287 yards and two TDs. Most of Ballard's stats came last weekend in a 52-34 win over Morrisville State, as he rushed for 151 yards and a TD as the featured back (probably because of an injury to Pitchardo who did not play).

Defensively the Hawks are allowing 27 PPG and 364.2 YPG. The Hartwick defense is led by two JR LBs in Mark Hackett (48 tackles and three INTs) and Josh Wilcox (43 tackles, four sacks and 7.5 TFL). Another player to keep an eye on is SR DB David Van Alstine, who may be small in size (5'6" 155 lbs) but has an eye for the football and is tied for the team lead in INTs with 3.

Van Alstine also stars on special teams, averaging 21.85 YPR and a TD on KOs. FY DB Matthew Scottman has handled the majority of punt returns, but Reed did make one PR last weekend against the Mustangs. Hartwick has a reliable kicker in SR PK Brian McGovern who's a perfect 5-5 on FGs (long of 36) this season while adding 27 PATs. McGovern also handles KOs, but only averages 40.8 yards on those, which could help Hobart with field position. The Hawks punter is Pine, the QB, and he's punted 14 times for 37.71 YPP average. The defense will have to keep an eye out for a potential quick kick play Saturday, as the Hawks are only 2-12 on fourth downs this season.

Keys to the game:

1. Clip the Wings - Hartwick averages 338.2 passing YPG and will be facing a Hobart defense that has really struggled at times against strong QBs. The Statesmen have allowed 266.8 YPG via the air, but that stat has been bolstered by the fact RPI only threw for 137 yards last Saturday. Pine is a much better QB than Trimpert, and will likely drop back at least 30-35 times against Hobart. The Statesmen have allowed opposing QBs to break 300 yards passing three times this season (vs. Brockport, vs. Shenandoah and vs. Ithaca), going 1-2 in those games. Needless to say, Hobart will need to keep the pressure on Pine up front all game.

2. The Run - I'm a broken record here, but the Statesmen's best defense will be to keep Pine, Reed and Garcia off the field and when they're in the game, pin them back by taking Ballard's ability to run the ball off the table. Offensively Hobart is averaging 150 rushing YPG and their stable of RBs have done very well in YPR:

SR RB Joe Letizia - 5.6 AVG
FY RB Dakota Harvey - 4.4 AVG (this number would be higher if not for last week's limited action of 7 carries for three yards and a TD)
SO RB Brian Haeffner - 6.4 AVG
JR RB Tynard Barfield - 5.2 AVG

Hartwick has allowed almost 180 rushing YPG and 12 rushing TDs this season. In their three losses, the Hawks opponents averaged 208 rushing YPG. Both WCSU and Cortland had over 100+ yard rushers, and Utica came close, with their QB rushing for 94 (and their RB adding 87 yards). Saint John Fisher rushed for 274 yards in Week 4, a 24-21 loss, but they couldn't stop Pine, who went 26-41 for 375 yards and three TDs.

3. Turnovers - Last weekend the Hobart defense killed RPI with three forced turnovers. The Statesmen offense turned over the ball as well, but it didn't cost them thanks to the stellar play of the D. Hartwick is +5 in TOM, so they can be opportunistic. The Statesmen will need to take better care of the ball than they did against RPI.

Prediction:

This game has the potential to be a shootout, but I think it may surprise some and end up being more of a defensive and field position battle. The Statesmen have the edge field position wise given better specialist players (on KOs and punting) than Hartwick, but otherwise you can say this is a pretty even match-up. While it won't count towards playoff consideration given its an OOC game, it would bode well for the Statesmen to keep the momentum going and get an important road win.

I'll pick Hobart to outlast Hartwick, 35-27.

Thanks for reading (and getting the blog to over 200k views!) and go 'Bart!