Monday, September 14, 2009

Carnegie Mellon Preview

The Hobart Statesmen football team started a new quarterback and suffered a tough loss to Dickinson College. The following weekend, the Statesmen welcomed an undefeated Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) Tartan team to Boswell Field.

Sound familiar?

It should to Hobart (and CMU) fans. In 2007 Andy Strom ’08 took a loss in his first start as QB in Carlisle but rallied the team the following week to defeat the then #22 Tartans 27-26 in Geneva.

Last season Hobart defeated CMU 21-16 in Pittsburg in a sloppy game that featured five interceptions by QBs Rich Doyle ’09 (three) and Phil Pantalone (two). The Statesmen and Tartans traded touchdowns in the first and second halves until Hobart won the field position battle and returned a punt to the CMU 34 with approximately seven minutes in the game. On the next play, Doyle found WR Zach Schultz ’10 open and Hobart had a quick touchdown to put them up 21-14. The Statesmen defense held for the remainder of the game – lead by record-setting performances by LBs Justin Hager ’09 (21 tackles) and Jeff Sanders ’09 (20 tackles) – with the offense taking an intentional safety with three seconds on the clock to preserve the victory.

Last weekend CMU (2-0) outlasted Grove City (0-2) by a score of 45-40. The Tartans had previously beaten Ohio Wesleyan (0-1) in Week 1 by a score of 19-7. Against the Wolverines of GCC, the Tartans ran their Wing-T to the tune of 73 plays from scrimmage - paced by 64 carries that amassed 317 rushing yards. Two CMU RBs eclipsed the 100 yard mark on the day: JR Justin Pratt (26 carries for 157 yards and three touchdowns) and SO Chris Garcia (21 carries for 107 yards and 1 touchdown as well as one 35 yard touchdown reception). The Wing-T was so effective that SR QB Phil Pantalone only attempted nine passes (he completed four for 83 yards and two touchdowns). Given the large number of running plays it’s not surprising that CMU also dominated the time of possession by a wide (36:02 – 23:58) margin.

Although the CMU defense did allow 500 total yards against Grove City, they did so mostly after the Tartan offense had run out to a 31-7 lead with 12:30 to play in the third quarter.

Going into Week 3 against Hobart, here’s what I know about the 2009 Tartans:

Their offense is averaging:
• 32 points per game
• 218.5 rushing yards per game
• 64 passing yards per game (based on 18 attempts in two games)
• 100% scoring success rate (including four touchdowns and 1 FG) in the red zone
The defense is averaging:
• Allowing 23.5 PPG
• 0 rushing touchdowns
• +5 in turnovers
• Great special teams coverage – only allowing .6 yard/punt return average

For Hobart (0-1) to get back on track in 2009, the Statesmen will need to have history repeat itself against the Tartans. Here are my keys to a Hobart victory on Saturday:

1. Revive the offense with a dose of PASSING – CMU has allowed an average of 247 yards passing on the season. The CMU defense is relatively tough against the run (158 yards allowed average – no rushing TDs scored) and given the struggles in the running game against Dickinson, Hobart should look to capitalize on the size (6’ 4” and 240 lbs) and experience of SR TE David Degan. Last season all of Hobart’s touchdowns where delivered by Doyle via airmail – two to TE Matt Duliba ’09 who Degan backed up during the 2008 season. So far in 2009 CMU has allowed seven passing TDs to their opponents. Bottom line is if Hobart doesn’t improve on their 65 yard passing performance from last week, the Statesmen will be 0-2

2. Avoid turnovers and control the time of possession (TOP) – Hobart failed on both parts last weekend and it cost them. The Tartans have been opportunistic on defense and have enjoyed a +5 turnover margin only two games into the season. It cannot be understated the importance of Julian’s fumble in the first quarter of the Dickinson game. It ultimately led to a 14 point swing and set a precedent from which Hobart never really recovered. Although the Statesmen OL continued to open holes against the Red Devils; as the game wore on Vella became antsy and started pressing – rushing throws and generally looking to run rather than sit back in the pocket and let plays develop. When it came to TOP, although the Statesmen took nearly 10 minutes off the clock in the opening quarter, the Red Devils dominated TOP by more than six minutes for the remainder of the contest. By late in the third quarter, the Hobart defense appeared fatigued after taking a continuous pounding from the Dickinson rushing attack. What scares me most about this game is this Tartan team is equipped to do more of the same to the Statesmen if the Hobart offense continues to struggle in the red zone. Speaking of that, perhaps the most basic, but essential key to beating CMU is:

3. Convert red zone visits into points – Sounds self-explanatory but the Statesmen had a fumble, personal foul(s) and sacks kill their scoring opportunities against the Red Devils. Hobart simply cannot afford to waste any chances to come away with points against a CMU team averaging 32 PPG on offense.

I am anxiously awaiting Saturday’s game and hope the Statesmen can and will rebound after last weekend’s disappointing loss. Kick-off is at noon ET and accessible online at www.weos.org. I’ll be joining the guys from “In the Huddle” (www.inthehuddle.com) on “Blogtalk” radio again on Sunday night at 7:30 PM ET to recap the Tartan-Statesmen game as well as other Liberty League (and other national D3) games. Hope you’ll tune in and say “Go ‘Bart!”

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