Saturday, November 23, 2019

Statesmen Slay Dragons to Take New York Bowl, 30-10

The Hobart College Statesmen matched their best record since the 2016 season, finishing 9-2 after going 3-0 against the top 3 teams in the Empire 8. The Statesmen used offense, defense and special teams to take out the host Cortland State Dragons (8-3) Saturday.

The visiting Statesmen opened the scoring with a JR PK Kyle Hackett 29-yd FG. SR QB Ryan Hofmann would find JR WR Mike Giacobbe on a 5-yd receiving TD on an amazing one-handed catch in the right side of the end zone to extend their lead to 10-0.

Cortland would get on the board after a 22-yd TD pass, but the defense would stand, keeping the game 10-7 Hobart going into the half.

Hofmann would connect with SR WR Ray Conley to open the third quarter. While the Red Dragons would get a FG to make it 16-10 Statesmen, FY RB Rayshawn Boswell would break another long KOR for a TD - this time for 95 yards - to push the Hobart advantage to 23-10.

While Cortland threatened to make it a one-score game - they blocked a SR WR John DelliSanti punt, but quickly fumbled it back to Hobart - the Statesmen were able to shut down (and shut out) the Dragons in the second half.

Hofmann would find Conley a second time with 34 seconds left to ice the win, 30-10. Hofmann finished the day 23-35 for 244 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs. SO LB Bryan Aguilar once again led the Statesmen D with 12 tackles.

The win is Hobart's first post-season victory since the 2014 NCAA playoffs. Congratulations to the Class of 2020 and the entire Statesmen coaching staff and team on an excellent season!

I'll have a post-season review later next week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Postseason - Cortland State / New York Bowl Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will travel to Cortland State Saturday for the second New York Bowl game. Hobart (8-2) will look to match their 2016 overall record with a win. While I had the best intentions of doing a full game preview, life kind of got in the way. Also, when I saw the Cortland (8-2) game notes press release, I realized they already have done a more thorough job than I possibly could have, recapping the all-time series and key players from their side.

That said, I still have a few items to focus in on that I think will play a big role in the outcome of this game.


Keys to the Game:

1. Hobart's OL / RB vs. the Cortland DL/LB - Cortland has allowed an average of 3.8 YPR against Hartwick and Ithaca in the past two games. I think the Hobart OL can open up some running lanes for SR RB Brian Haeffner, FY RB Rayshawn Boswell and FY RB Tim Denham, Jr. This three-headed attack can be the best defense controlling the clock and keeping Red Dragons SR QB Brett Segala on the sideline (which is basically what Ithaca did running the ball 51 times from zone read formations and plays, leading to about a 45 minutes TOP advantage in the Cortaca game at MetLife Stadium last Saturday).

2. Fuel to the Fire - I probably wasn't the only one who noticed SR QB Ryan Hofmann was effectively snubbed in the LL all-conference awards. This was the first time since 2015 that a Hobart QB didn't get included on the LL awards list. While Hofmann has struggled with accuracy at times during the season, he has led to the Statesmen to many wins since his first career start in Week 11 back in 2017. He will end up in the Top 5, or very close to, in the all-time record books in a number of statistical categories. Saturday will be his and his 11 SR FB classmates final game as well. Hopefully he goes out with a showing similar to what we saw against Rochester. Cortland's secondary has allowed an average of 9 YPC through the air and 4 passing TDs in the last two games.

3. Turnovers - Both Hobart (3 INTs, 1 FBL) and Cortland (3 INTs, 2 FBL) had turnover issues in their respective losses this season, so it goes without saying the team that wins the turnover battle Saturday will likely be raising the silver cup after the game.

4. Special Teams - The Statesmen have one of the better KOR games in the East and Cortland has blocked several (like 10) FGs this season, running many of them back for TDs. Along with turnovers, Hobart needs to play heads up in the ST unit to not give Cortland any advantages there.

Prediction:

I think the Hobart run game will end up being the difference here, along with a couple of defensive plays that will keep the Dragons at bay. Given the cold, I think it'll be a slightly lower scoring affair, but I like the Statesmen to win the NY Bowl trophy by a score of 24-20.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!


Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Statesmen Rack Up Conference Awards

The Hobart College Statesmen (8-2, 4-2) had a strong showing when the Liberty League (LL) released their annual all-conference awards / teams.

A link to the official release can be viewed here.

Leading the way was JR OLB Emmett Forde who won the LL DPOTY, which I think was well deserved. FY RB Rayshawn Boswell earned ROTY honors for what I agree was a breakout first season, both as a RB and KOR/ST player.

The other Statesmen represented included:

1st Team Offense:

SR RB Brian Haeffner
JR OL Dillon Carey

1st Team Defense:

JR OLB Emmett Forde
JR DB Jared Leake

1st Team Specialists:

FY RB Tim Denham (RS)
FY RB Rayshawn Boswell (ATH)

2nd Team Offense:

SR WR Jake Catalioto
JR OL Alex Lanzana
SR TE A.J. Perlino

2nd Team Defense:

SO LB Bryan Aguilar
JR DL Isaiah Boone
JR OLB David McCarthy

2nd Team Specialists:

JR PK Kyle Hackett
SR P John DelliSanti 

Honorable Mention:

SR WR Ray Conley
SR FS Andrew Koonz
SR DB Jayson Prince
JR DE Zach Rudolph

Congratulations to these Statesmen award winners!

Time to get back to work on my New York (MEGA ;) Bowl preview.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!


Sunday, November 17, 2019

Game On - Statesmen Selected to Play in New York Bowl


Hobart College will travel to Cortland State this Saturday to participate in the second New York Bowl. Both teams enter with an 8-2 record. They also both come into this contest with a starter who will be sidelined for the first half given ejections in the second half of last weekend's games.

For Cortland, SR QB Brett Segala accidentally made contact with an official at the end of the Cortaca game at MetLife Stadium. For Hobart, JR FS Cal Sullivan was disqualified from the game against Rochester for a targeting penalty.

Both players can come in the second half of Saturday's game.

Cortland won the inaugural New York Bowl game, 35-28, at Union back in 2017. While the LL was supposed to host in odd years, the series has been determined to be at the Empire 8 host's site for this season given the 2017 contest was hosted by the LL.

Cortland State has an excellent football facility, and it's not far from Geneva (and it's technically closer to parties east and south of the NYS Thruway which should help travelling fans). Apparently the winner receives a silver bowl and wooden base trophy - I'll post a picture once in receipt of one.

That's it for now. Congratulations to the Statesmen on their first postseason berth since 2016 and the opportunity to match that season's win number against a strong Red Dragons team.

I'll preview this game a little later in the week. In the meantime, stay tuned to @D3FBHuddle and ITH's Facebook page for more and more content this week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Hobart Routs Rochester, 51-20

The Hobart College Statesmen won their 9th consecutive Centennial Cup, beating Rochester (0-10, 0-6) on their Senior Day by a 51-20 margin. The Statesmen will await to hear on the status of the New York State Bowl game, which I hope to tweet out on our @D3FBHuddle show twitter feed Sunday night around 6:30 PM, if not sooner.

Regardless, an 8-2 overall finish is the best for Hobart since the 2016 season. While the Statesmen did end up in third place in the LL with a 4-2 mark, they should have an opportunity to win a 9th game, likely against Cortland, who also ended the year 8-2.

The Statesmen needed less than two minutes to score as FY RB Tim Denham took a 47-yard run to the house to give Hobart an early 6-0 lead. He'd score again a few plays later. JR PK Kyle Hackett would add the first of his three FGs on the day - tying the single game record for FGM and the season FGM record with his 11th - shortly after.

JR OLB Emmett Forde added a scoop and score TD to extend the Statesmen's advantage to 21-0 and FY RB Rayshawn Boswell took off on a 98-yd KOR for a TD that is probably a Hobart record also.

The Statesmen led 34-0 at the half. SR QB Ryan Hofmann would find SR WR Jake Catalioto for a TD and Boswell added a second rushing score. Hofmann had one of his best games of the season, going 20-29 for 243 yards and a TD. Catalioto had six catches for a game high 107 receiving yards. The Statesmen offense out-gained Rocester 504-227 on the day.

The only downside to today's game was some questionable officiating, which saw a couple of Hobart players removed from the game. They will be eligible for the second half of the NYS Bowl, assuming that comes to pass.

I'll have more on the season and a preview of the Bowl game - I'm pretty confident we'll have it - early next week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Week 11 - Rochester / Centennial Cup Game Preview (and other stuff)

The 2019 season is coming to a close and the Hobart College Statesmen are looking to finish it with their best record since 2016. While the Statesmen will likely be ranked in today's East Region Playoff Rankings (at 8th), Hobart is hoping that:

1) Ithaca will play in an ECAC bowl game (they've filed and have a good shot at a bid based on the team's listed);
2) Cortland misses the playoffs regardless of Cortaca at MetLife Stadium (highly likely based on the current Pool C landscape and how low the RAC has them rated based on their SOS and lack of RROs); so
3) Based on the above, the Statesmen go to Cortland to play in a post-season New York State Bowl game on 11/23

Rochester (0-9, 0-5) poses little to no threat to affect the above, as the Yellow Jackets are still in rebuilding mode. Rochester has also lost their last two games by a 110-19 margin, and so I expect Hobart to drop and win by at least 35-45 points Saturday.

That's it. That's where we stand with a few days left before the final weekend of the 2019 season. I will be covering the Bowl bids and NCAAs with Frank on In the D3FB Huddle starting today through the weekend. We will interview the NCAA Committee Chair for like the 11th year in row Sunday night and have the ECAC and other bowl bids announced by Monday mid-day.

Hopefully by this time Monday we'll know that the Statesmen will have one more week of football left.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!




Monday, November 11, 2019

Hobart Handles Bengals on Senior Night, 40-23

The Hobart College Statesmen maintained a perfect home record this season, going 6-0 against their 2019 opponents at the Boz. SR QB Ryan Hofmann passed for 279 yards and 3 TDs while SR RB Brian Haeffner added 132 on the ground to go with two scores.


FY RB Tim Denham broke an 80-yd KOR for a TD to open the second half and Hobart (7-2, 3-2) never looked back. Denham scored earlier in the game on a 17-yd pass from Hofmann. SR WR Ray Conley and JR WR Mike Giacobbe also had TD catches on the night. SR WR Jake Catalioto had 102 receiving yards in his final home game as well. The defense was led by SO ILB Bryan Aguilar with eight tackles, 1 TFL, a sack and a FF. SR CB Jayson Prince added six tackles, five solo, on the night.

The Statesmen just need to dispatch a win-less Rochester (0-9, 0-5) squad this Saturday for another Centennial Cup win and hope they earn some form of post-season bid. The NCAA playoffs are unfortunately not possible at all given the amount of likely 9-1 teams in the Pool C race and the Statesmen's head-to-head loss to Ithaca (7-2, 3-2) keeping them down in the eyes of the East Region RAC - even with the head-to-head win over now Empire 8 Champions and #22 Brockport (8-1).

The most likely scenario I can see is with Ithaca's surprise upset loss to RPI (6-3, 3-2) last Saturday and the Bombers declaration for a bid to the ECACs, the Statesmen are in the running for the second ever New York State Bowl game, on the road, against Cortland. Alfred (5-4), who also has declared for an ECAC game, may be a possibility also, but I believe the Red Dragons will lose to Ithaca after really struggling to stop Hartwick (1-8) last Saturday.

The Dragons (8-1) run defense looked terrible, giving up 133 yards to what's mostly a pass-first Hawks squad. Hobart's run game has really started to click in the past couple of weeks, the OL has improved and Statesmen fans should be optimistic for the future. 9 out of 11 starters will return on defense and the entire OL should be back with rising stars like Denham and FY RB Rayshawn Boswell in the backfield. The Statesmen lose some strong WR talent, but the roster is deep there and it'll be interesting to see who ultimately replaces Hofmann after he graduates.

Hofmann and his 11 SR Statesmen teammates still have at least one more game left, however, so I'll work on a Rochester preview a little later this week.

Thanks for reading as always and go 'Bart!

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Week 10 - Buffalo State / Senior Night Game Preview

Welcome to November football, Statesmen fans!

It's been an interesting ride this season, but the Hobart College Football squad has a chance to finish 2019 with the best record the program has had since the 2016 season. They could even potentially match that 9-2 overall record, assuming they receive the LL bid the second ever New York State Bowl game.

In the past I've broken down the opposing team for games this season, but for this week, I am going to focus primarily on the Class of 2020.

These 12 SR Statesmen will be playing in their final home game Saturday night under the lights of the "Boz":

2019 Hobart Football Roster
NO
NAME
POS
CL
HT
WT
HOMETOWN
HIGH SCHOOL
6Ray ConleyRay ConleyWRSR6-1190Lyndhurst, N.J.Don Bosco Prep
9John DelliSantiJohn DelliSantiWRSR6-2200Wilton, Conn.Fairfield Prep
10Ryan HofmannRyan HofmannQBSR6-3205Lindenhurst, N.Y.Lindenhurst
12David McCarthyDavid McCarthyOLBSR6-1200Ronkonkoma, N.Y.Sachem North
15Jake CataliotoJake CataliotoWRSR6-0203Ringwood, N.J.Lakeland
16Andrew KoonzAndrew KoonzFSSR6-3200High Falls, N.Y.Rondout Valley
20Jayson PrinceCJayson PrinceCBSR6-1200New Rochelle, N.Y.New Rochelle
22Brian HaeffnerBrian HaeffnerRBSR5-9210Garden City, N.Y.Garden City
27Josh WalkerJosh WalkerILBSR5-10200Fort Washington, Md.Blair Academy/The Potomac School
79Reid CrobokReid CrobokDTSR6-1315Hoosick Falls, N.Y.Troy
82AJ PerlinoAJ PerlinoTESR6-6245Holland, N.Y.East Aurora-Holland
94Collin HudginsCollin HudginsDESR6-0240Boynton Beach, Fla.Atlantic

Each of these student athletes have had solid careers as Statesmen and are a big part in why Hobart is beginning to turn the corner to returning to the top of D3FB. While I'm sure most, if not all, of these young men would have liked to have had better than a 27-11 record over the past four seasons, they certainly should be proud of the accomplishments made to date and look forward to the post-season recognition many will receive in form of conference and other team and individual awards.

Scouting the Bengals


While it might be easy to assume Hobart should have no trouble with a 1-7 team, there are a few players on the Buffalo State Bengals squad that bear mentioning and should be taken seriously by the Statesmen.

SR RB Martin Bailey (pictured above) is currently 5th in the LL averaging 3.8 YPC and nearly 50 RYPG. He's thrown four times this season, completing three of those including 1 passing TD to go with 3 rushing scores.

Like most LL teams, the Bengals are mostly a passing team offensively. They are led by SR QB Zak Ciezki who's completed nearly 61% of his pass attempts, throwing for 1,744 yards, 11 TDs compared to 8 INTs. His primary target has been SR WR Jordan Evert, who's caught 66 passes this season for 841 receiving yards and 9 TDs.

The OL is a younger group, mostly made up of FY and SOs, but SR OL Tre Smith has both size (6' 1" 290 lbs) and experience at the tackle position.

Buffalo State runs a 4-3-4 style defensive scheme and the Bengals are led by SR S Gino Bonagura with 95 tackles, including 3.5 TFL and 3 INTs. JR LB Devin Delmont is second on the team with 70 tackles and 7 TFL.

JR PK Zachary Sajdak handles punting duties and a 31.34 YPP net average. SR PK Tommy Carr has gone 3-5 on FGs this season with a long of 33 yards. Carr has also averaged over 53 YPKO also, but has split time with JR PK Merrick Sproule.

Keys to the Game

1. Keep on Running - The Bengals defense has allowed nearly 200 RYPG this season, including 20 rushing TDs. Last weekend we saw the Statesmen running attack achieve a season high 315 rushing yards and 3 rush TDs.

2. 4-Down Territory - Don't expect the Buffalo State offense to always punt on 4th down. The Bengals have gone for it 24 times this season (basically three times a game on average), but have only converted 7 of those attempts. This high risk approach could benefit Hobart depending on field position.

3. Home Sweet Home - The Statesmen can finish the season 6-0 at home with a win on Saturday night. The Boswell home field advantage is a real thing. Of the 27 wins the Class of 2020 has earned, 18 have been at the Boz. In fact, they've only lost 3 games in the past four seasons when playing in Geneva.

Prediction:

I think the Hobart defense will flex it's collective muscles and cause a couple of turnovers and the offense will cash in several times in what I expect will be a 42-14 win.

Thanks again for reading and go 'Bart!

Sunday, November 3, 2019

Haeffner Powers Hobart to 35-3 Win Over SLU

Not to "toot my own horn" but it looks like my run the ball key to the game in the SLU game preview was spot on.

Hobart SR RB Brian Haeffner ran for a season high 146 yards and 2 TDs as the Statesmen improved to 6-2, 2-2 overall on the season. HWSAthletics.com beat me to the punch this weekend, and their recap can be seen here. The other star of the game was the Hobart defense who tallied 3 INTs to go with holding the Saints (3-5, 1-3) to only 3 points, including 1-5 in the red zone, 6-15 on 3rd and 0-2 on 4th downs.

JR PK Kyle Hackett elevated himself into first place in the all-time points scored category (as a PK) with his 181st point off a PAT. He finished the day 5-5 on PATs and 183 career points (and counting).

Based on the carnage of this past weekend, you can expect to see the Statesmen appear in the first NCAA East Region Rankings, due out on Wednesday, 11/6 around 3 PM. I expect Hobart to end up 7th based on the Week 1 win over Brockport, who upset #18 Cortland 32-26 in OT Saturday. #8 Ithaca (7-1, 4-1) is due to drop out of the Top 10 (and 15) after losing to #25 Union (8-0, 5-0). The Dutchmen won the LL title for the first time since 2006.

In my opinion, the SLU win pretty much guarantees the Statesmen will end up 8-2, 4-2 and put themselves in position to earn a bid to the New York State postseason bowl game, assuming it is played. With all due respect to Buff State and UofR, I don't think Hobart will have an issue getting past two teams who are a combined 1-15.

Assuming Ithaca wins Cortaca, it's possible Cortland could end up as Hobart's opponent, otherwise Alfred (5-3, 2-2) could be the Statesmen's draw. At the end of the day it'll depend on how much the respective leagues push the game - which in my estimation could be hosted by Hobart (LL is supposed to host odd years but could end up at an E8 host because of last year’s situation) and whether or not the schools themselves are up for playing it. More on that in the coming weeks.

Keep an eye on In the D3FB Huddle this week for more info as the 2019 regular season comes to a close.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Monday, October 28, 2019

Week 9 - Saint Lawrence Game Preview

Hobart College Statesmen fans have had a bye week to reflect back on what's been a good, but not great, season to date. While Hobart (5-2, 1-2) has already matched it's win total from 2018, the losses to Union (7-0, 4-0) and Ithaca (7-0, 4-0) still sting. Those two teams will play a winner takes all game this Saturday at Butterfield Stadium. My advice to Statesmen fans is hope Union wins the game. While #8 Ithaca, who's never lost to the #25 Dutchmen at home either, is the favorite, they can afford to lose this game and still make it into the NCAA playoffs if they can beat #18 Cortland in Week 11.

If Union loses, they will likely be out of the NCAA playoffs because of a schedule that lacks SOS or any wins over likely NCAA regionally ranked teams. The Dutchmen losing also makes them the likely pick in the (supposedly still alive) New York State Bowl game from the LL. It's possible even if they lost and ended the season 9-1, Union could pass on the game (they did last season). Time will tell.

Regardless, for better or worse, Hobart is playing for third place at this point and hopefully ending up in the NYS game against maybe a Cortland or Alfred, which would be exciting match-ups and a nice way to send off the Class of 2020. Before that, the Statesmen have to beat a long-time rival they've dominated for the past two decades, but has one it's strongest offensive units in school history.

Hobart is 52-38-2 against SLU all-time, in a series that dates back to 1901. This will be the 93rd meeting, with the Statesmen enjoying a win streak over the Saints dating back to 2010. Prior to that game, Hobart had won 18 consecutive games against SLU from 1992 until that 3-point set back in 2010. The Saints gave the Statesmen a couple of scares in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, otherwise Hobart has beaten the Saints by an average score of 37-19 (rounded up), including last year's 42-31 win in Canton, the last three seasons.


Scouting the Saints

SLU (3-4, 1-2) has had an up and down season, but is riding high after a dominant 35-21 win over RPI (4-3, 1-2) last Saturday. The Saints got out to a fast start, scoring 4 TDs in the first half, running up a 35 unanswered points until taking their foot off the pedal in the fourth quarter.

SO QB Tyler Grochot is having a strong second-year campaign, and coincidentally, is ranked 2nd in the LL with 2,222 passing yards, 18 TDs and 318.3 YPG average. One area he's struggled has been accuracy, ranking fifth in pass completions with a 62.4% mark and his 9 INTs is the second most in the LL.

Not surprisingly, JR WR Andrew Murphy and JR WR Joseph Viscardo are reaping the benefits of HC Dan Puckhaber's aerial scheme. Murphy has 36 catches for 636 yards and 5 TDs. Viscardo has caught 46 passes for 631 yards and 11 TDs.

SO RB Jamie Battaglia only averages 56.9 RYPG, but he's ranked third in rushing in the LL with a total of 398 yards and 3 TDs. He runs behind an experienced OL led by SR RT Jack Cesari (6'3" 265 lbs). JR RG Mike Weaver (5' 11" 270 lbs), SO C Joseph O'Rourke (6' 250 lbs.), JR LG Nick Castrova (6'2" 290 lbs.) and JR LT Max Warden (6'3" 300 lbs.) make up the rest of the unit. Warden earned 2nd team All-LL last season and will be a tough match up for the Hobart DL in the game.

Defensively the Saints run a 3-4-4 scheme and are led by JR LB Liam Murray with 65 tackles, which ranks 3rd in the LL. Murray was high school classmates with Hobart's JR FS Cal Sullivan. Sullivan had his best game of the season with six tackles, including 1 TFL against Ithaca in Week 7. The Hobart OL will need to be on guard to stop JR LB Ethan Roberts, who leads the Saints with 13.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks, the latter being the best mark for sacks in the LL.

The SLU secondary has 9 INTs on the season and is led by SR DB Tyler Burns with 48 tackles to go with 2 TFL, 2 INTs and 4 PBUs. Burns also serves as the Saints PR specialist.

GR PK Jackson Reaper is the Saints punter, averaging just under 34 YPP. SR PK William Manory has gone 6-7 on FGs with a long of 36. He's perfect under 30 yards. JR PK Austin Pinard averages 53.7 YPKO.

A number of different SLU players have fielded KOs, but it appears as though FY WR Peyton Schmitt is the usual suspect, averaging just over 15 YPKO return.

Keys to the Game:

1. Something's Got to Give - The Saints bring the 2nd best LL passing offense to take on the 2nd best passing defense. SLU has scored on 18 passing TDs this season, Hobart's only allowed 9, and 3 of those came against IC (who had some help from the refs on a couple non-OPI calls on those). Hobart will need to do a better job generating pressure up the middle - an area they've all but abandoned at times this season given personnel changes. This is a problem with the 3-man front, because it allows the OL to have a 5 on 3 advantage. Based on my understanding of the rules, JR OLB Emmett Forde should be eligible to play from the get go Saturday which is good news. The Saints OL has allowed 20 sacks in seven games (almost a 3 per game average), which means Hobart would do well to blitz and rush Grochot's throws.

2. Run for It - Both SLU and Hobart have the worst rushing stats in the LL, averaging 61.9 and 79.3 YPG, respectively. Surprisingly, the Saints have a pretty decent balance, play calling wise, with about a 47-53 run-pass ratio. The Statesmen aren't much different, rushing about 45% of the time. Needless to say, while the long ball will have a lot to say how this game plays out, I could see the team that controls the clock and keeps the other side's offense on the sideline win the game.

3. Home Sweet Home - Hobart is 4-0 at home this season and SLU is 0-3 away from Canton, NY. This is a must win game for the Statesmen, especially given they have owned the series against SLU of late. Hobart can keep it's post-season hopes alive (via the NYS Bowl) with a win Saturday.

Prediction:

The Statesmen are a different team at home and although this SLU team can't be taken lightly, Hobart should have enough of a defensive advantage to carry the game. I will pick the Statesmen to come away with a hard fought 31-17 win.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Butterfield Curse Remains Intact, Statesmen Shutout, 34-0

The #9 Ithaca College Bombers couldn't do much in the first quarter, but would outscore Hobart 34-0 from the second quarter on keep the Statesmen (5-2, 1-2) win-less in Ithaca. The Statesmen offense was inconsistent for most of the game and while the defense held it's own at times, penalties and broken coverage eventually caught up to them in a lopsided loss.

Ithaca outgained Hobart 459-201 yards on the day. The Statesmen pass defense was beat several times by 2018 LL OPOTY SR WR Will Gladney (sometimes on questionable DPI calls) on eight catches for 111 yards and two TDs. JR WR Andrew Vito added eight catches for 106 yards and a TD as well.

JR OLB Emmett Forde was ejected on a questionable targeting call and I believe SR DL Reid Crobok was also after a second personal foul penalty in the fourth quarter. The latter made a critical mistake, dropping Bombers SR QB Joe Germiniero, Jr. out of bounds at the end of the first half which set up a first and goal for Ithaca (more on that in a moment). Hobart was penalized 12 times for -119 yards in the game. 

While penalties played a role, the main reason Hobart lost was Germiniero did what he's done to the Statesmen the last three seasons - he threw for 337 yards and 3 TDs, including a 73% pass completion game. The Ithaca defense also made Hobart's offense ineffective for most of the afternoon, partially due to poor QB play, but also because of solid pass and run defense. Do I think Ithaca is a Top 10 team? No. They will be exposed in the playoffs, but I suppose time will tell on that one.

Back to the game, JR PK Kyle Hackett, who hadn’t missed a FG over 40 yards his FY or SO seasons, inexplicably missed a 32-yard attempt which would have made it a 7-3 at the half. After the miss, the Statesmen sat back in coverage, much like the end of the first half against Union, and it cost them. The Bombers drove down the field and ended up scoring a TD right before the half after the Crobok hit took them from a FG situation to a first and goal.

It went downhill from there. Hobart would give up a TD to open the second half and never got anything going offensively for the rest of the game. They had a chance to score on a fourth and goal at the end of the third quarter but SR TE AJ Perlino, who was wide open, was overthrown and the ball turned over on downs.

This will was the first time Hobart had been shutout since a 14-0 loss to Rochester all the way back to the 2000 season. The loss today also ensures the Statesmen will miss the playoffs for the third straight season and can only hope to win it's final three games to finish the season 8-2. Maybe a NYS Bowl game could be in the offering (the game is supposed to still be on, even after last season's cancellation), but even that would depend on a number of factors. In the Statesmen's favor is that two of their three final opponents are terrible. SLU (2-4, 0-2) however gave Union a good run and shouldn't be taken lightly. It's never easy to win up in Canton.

At this point it may make sense to hand the ball to SO QB David Krewson full time and start rotating in younger players to help set up the offense for next season. There will be a lot to digest after this tough loss over the bye week.

I'll have more on the season to date later in the week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Monday, October 14, 2019

Week 7 - Ithaca Game Preview

The end of the gauntlet is finally here, as the Hobart College Statesmen travel to #9 Ithaca College to take on the Bombers (5-0, 2-0) in a key LL match up. The Statesmen (5-1, 1-1) are riding high after their best game of the season, a 41-27 beating of RPI (4-2, 1-1) in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicates.

A lot of the backdrop on this game will be about how Hobart, who trails the overall series by a 5-27 margin (but has gone 4-5 against the Bombers since 2000), has never won against Ithaca on the road. The Bombers have a two game win streak against Hobart, having beaten them 24-21 in Ithaca back in 2017 and by a 10-3 margin in Geneva last season. The Statesmen defense gave the 2017 game away in the final two minutes and the 2018 game came down to the offense getting bogged down, in part to 10 penalties for -110 yards, including two turnovers.

Realistically Hobart could have won either of those contests and will need to avoid past pitfalls against a strong, but beatable, Ithaca team this year.

Scouting the Bombers


Ithaca boasts the #1 scoring offense in the LL, averaging 47.6 PPG. SR QB Joe Germiniero, Jr. leads the top passing offense in the conference, averaging 330.4 YPG, and the running game isn't far behind, ranked second overall averaging 127.4 YPG, respectively. Germiniero, who's 2-0 against Hobart in his career, has completed over 70% of his passes for 1,563 yards, 18 TDs, compared to only 3 INTs. He's scored 3 rushing TDs as well.

His favorite target is the reigning LL OPOTY, SR WR Will Gladney. Not surprisingly, he leads the LL in receiving yards with 590 to go with 9 TDs. JR WR Andrew Vito and SO WR Michael Anderson have combined for 56 receptions for 707 yards and 5 TDs. SR RB Isaiah D'Haiti leads the team with 172 rushing yards and 5 TDs, which clearly points to Ithaca's preference of the pass over the run in HC Dan Swanstrom's offense.

The Bombers OL is a mix of veterans and newcomers with SR C Michael Conley and SR LT Kyle Berna being the most experienced of the group. The other starters (according to last Saturday's box score - a relatively easy 48-14 win over 0-6 Buffalo State) are SO LG Andrew Testani, SO RG Jake Villanueva (who was a starter as a FY and is the biggest - 6'4", 315 lbs. - of what's a moderately sized group) and SO RT Brendan Martin. The OL has allowed 6 sacks in five games so far.

Defensively the Bombers have an almost entirely new cast of characters, and that inexperience has been exposed a handful of times this season. The best example of this was during the second half of the Bombers game against St. John Fisher (3-3, 0-2 E8). The Cardinals rallied down 25 points at the half to push Ithaca to the brink of their first defeat, shutting out the Bombers offense and nearly pulling off the upset.

SR LB Nick Garone leads the team with 39 tackles, including 2 sacks and 3 INTs. SR DL John Hadac leads the Bombers and LL with 6.5 sacks and 10.5 TFL. SO DB Anthony Robinson leads the secondary with nine PBUs to go with 29 tackles and 2 TFL. JR DB Khiry Brown has 2 of the 9 INTs the Ithaca defense has produced in 5 games.

FY PK Nicholas Bahamonde is a perfect 7-7 on FGs with a long of 47 yards. He also handles KOs, averaging 59.3 yards PKO. Nearly half of KOs have ended up as TBs. SO PK Brian Fallon has handled most of the punting duties, averaging a net of 37.73 YPP. SO RB AJ Clifford has returned virtually all the KOs this season, averaging a solid 26.19 YPKOR. SR WR Kyle Smith has returned one punt for a TD, otherwise Anderson has fielded a handful of punts as well.

Keys to the Game:

1. Don't Believe the Hype / Bring the Noise - The Germiniero transfer raised a lot of eyebrows in the off-season, making Ithaca the defacto favorite in the LL title race, and Joe certainly hasn't disappointed his new team. That said, RPI provided a blue print on how to rattle and ultimately beat the strong-armed QB last season with a steady dose of middle and outside pressure, forcing him into bad throws and missing his reads, leading to INTs. The Cardinals nearly succeeded in a similar way, picking off and sacking Germiniero twice in the game. The Statesmen will need to follow a similar script, using a variety of blitz packages to disrupt the Bombers potent offense. It's fair to say Ithaca hasn't faced a defense with as much talent, even with the number of injuries to the DL/LB corps, as this Statesmen unit possesses. If JR OLB Emmett Forde can get some hits Germiniero the way he dropped RPI JR QB George Marinopolous, it's game on in Ithaca.

2. Protect the Football - Even if the Bombers defense has been more porous against the pass than last year, they have done a good job with take-away's, which is something the Statesmen can't afford on the road this weekend. The Ithaca run defense has good stats, but they struggled to handle Alfred SR RB Aaron Griffin in Week 3. The problem for the Saxons was their passing game was almost non-existent, allowing the Bombers to chip away on offense, and take advantage of a couple of short fields. If the Hobart OL can help SR RB Brian Haeffner curn out some tough yards, the best defense against Germiniero and company could simply be just eat up clock and keep the Bombers offense on the sideline as much as possible.

3. Dig (and Go) Deep - Hobart will need SR QB Ryan Hofmann to be accurate with his throws and look for the opportunity to connect on the deep ball like we've seen a few times this season. JR WR Mike Giacobbe will be a match up problem for the Bombers, and the Statesmen will need to take some shots with SR WR Ray Conley as well.

4. In With the New - Swanstrom doesn't know much about guys like FY RBs Tim Denham, Jr and Rayshawn Boswell. FY TE Charlie Pierce could be an X factor too in certain goal line situations. SO WR Shahkyle Matthews is another weapon Hobart could leverage a bit more to keep the Bombers defense on their heels. The Bombers are basically the biggest and best opponent on Hobart's schedule - time to throw the proverbial "kitchen sink" at Ithaca and leave it all on the field.

Prediction:

This all depends on what Statesmen team shows up?

If it's the Union game guys - forget it. Ithaca romps Hobart in the 35-21 zone. If it's the RPI game guys - then we're talking about a one-score game like the past two seasons where the Hobart defense and ST units can make a difference with a turnover, fake punt / gadget play.

Points will be at a premium either way so I expect to see at least a couple JR PK Kyle Hackett FG attempts. The Bombers PK is a strong one also, so a potential FG block play could come in handy for Hobart.

Hopefully Hobart finally breaks the Butterfield streak and leaves that behind them for good. Ithaca is probably over-rated at #9 in the nation, but that could be something the Statesmen use to their advantage. All the pressure is on the Bombers to win here. Hobart has been the more disciplined team in all their games this season, and the penalty stats show it, with the Statesmen having the least amount of flags and penalty yardage in all the LL. Ithaca has the most. Will it be a deciding factor Saturday? Time will tell....

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Statesmen Rebound, Rout RPI, 41-27

The Hobart College Statesmen evened their LL record at 1-1 and improved to 5-1 on the season with an resounding beat-down of defending conference champion, RPI. The Engineers (4-2, 1-1) had no answers for an attacking Statesmen defense (until the starters were pulled in the 4th quarter as Hobart was up 38-7)  that forced two INTs and sacked JR QB George Marinopolous twice and had 6 TFL.

JR OLB Emmett Forde is making a serious case to be named the LL DPOTY, if not All-American, based on his stats to date. He led the Hobart defense (unofficially) with 12 tackles and 4 TFL, including a FF.

It looked like this might be more of a defensive struggle early on, as Hobart's first offensive play ended up as an INT and RPI's early tries ended up in punts. JR PK Kyle Hackett even had a rare FG miss. He would redeem himself with two successful FG tries later in the game.

The tide started to turn in Hobart's favor as a tough defensive stand held the RPI offense at the 39 yard line. The Statesmen offense would drive 61 yards and SR RB Brian Haeffner would rumble into the end zone, dodging would-be tacklers, to give Hobart an early 7-0 lead. The Engineers would capitalize on a second Statesmen turnover; however, a recovering a fumble by FY RB Tim Denham, Jr., then tying the game off a misdirection gadget pass play.

Hobart quickly would take the lead back on a 65-yard SR QB Ryan Hofmann to JR WR Mike Giacobbe pass and run. The Statesmen never looked back and rattled off 31 unanswered points.

Hofmann finished the day with 294 pass yards to go with 3 TDs, recovering well from the early INT. Hofmann has passed for over 3,000 yards in his Hobart career. SR WR Ray Conley was his favorite target, catching six passes for 111 yards, but Giacobbe was the most opportunistic, converting both of his catches for TDs. Haeffner and SO QB David Krewson combined for 50 rush yards and two scores.

Today's win sets up the highly anticipated rematch between Hobart and #10 Ithaca. As has been well chronicled, the Statesmen have never won at Butterfield Stadium. They will need to next Saturday to force a potential tiebreaker situation with unbeaten Union still in control of their destiny. Today's loss for RPI basically means the Engineers will need to win out, hope for some help in order to not be eliminated from the NCAA playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Week 6 - RPI Game Preview

The grind continues for the Hobart College Statesmen who return home to face off against the defending LL-champions RPI. The Engineers (4-1, 1-0) come into the game off of back-to-back 38 point shutouts and appear to be on a roll. RPI's lone loss was a 3-point decision to WPI (5-0), who sits a top the NEWMAC (which is officially an AQ conference this season) and is ranked #1 in New England D3FB.

RPI has shown balance on both sides of the ball and, as always, boasts one of the stronger ST units in the LL, if not the East. Last season Hobart (4-1, 0-1) dug themselves into a 24-3 hole, before starting a late rally after then JR WR Ray Conley caught two TD passes to pull the score to 24-17 with 2:51 remaining in the game. The teams traded quick TDs after that and it wasn't until a failed onside kick attempt by the Statesmen in the final seconds that effectively ended the game.

The Engineers hold a narrow 31-30-1 edge over Hobart in the all-time series, which dates back to 1910. RPI has had Hobart's number this past decade, going 5-4 against Statesmen, including wins in three of the last four contests. Hobart last defeated RPI at the Boz in 2017, in a 30-0 shutout, but a lot has changed in Troy, NY since that meeting.

Scouting the Engineers


The biggest development coming out of their 30-0 loss to Hobart back in 2017 was Engineers HC Ralph Isernia deciding to give the starting QB job to (now) JR QB George Marinopolous who's led RPI to 19 wins in their last 23 games, including a run into the national quarterfinals last season.

The Guilderland (NY) HS grad has passed for 1,059 yds and 12 TDs so far this season, completing nearly 67% of his attempts, while throwing only 3 INTs. Marinopolous also has one rushing TD on the season but has mostly spread the ball around, as the Engineers have five different receivers with over 10 catches. SR WR Nick Smith has been his favorite target based on his team high 17 receptions for 210 yards and 2 TDs. The favorite end zone target is JR WR Vinnie McDonald with a team high 4 TDs. McDonald's size (6'4" 220lbs) will be a challenge for pretty much any secondary. McDonald also can throw the ball, completing a 76-yard TD pass in the season opener against Allegheny (0-4).The Statesmen LBs will need to keep an eye out for SR SB Marc Meislahn, who's caught 16 passes for 184 yards while also scoring 5 rushing TDs in short yardage situations.

The Engineers have split carries between SO RB Joe Scaglione (42 carries for 198 rush yards) and SO RB Dylan Burnett (34 carries for 202 rush yards and 1 TD).

The RPI OL is led by SR RG Jakob Grant, but otherwise is a younger, inexperienced OL compared to last season. SO C Thomas Olausen, SO LG Rick Demboske, FY LT Luke Koscioc and FY RT Shawn Gibbons were the starters in last week's win over Rochester (0-5). This young OL has done a solid job, only allowing three sacks so far this season.

This overall unit is helping the Engineers gain 33.2 PPG, 365.8 YPG of total offense, scoring 20 TDs (the defense has scored two).

Defensively RPI is holding opponents to only 10.6 PPG and is led by LL DPOTY candidate SR LB John Sadak. He has a team high 32 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 sack and an INT. The Engineers run a 3-3-5 scheme that provides various looks and uses a "rover" and multiple safeties. SR DL Andrew Banaitis has a team high 3 sacks to go with 17 tackles and 3.5 TFL. JR DL Amaechi Konkwo is having another good year, tallying 2 sacks, 4 TFL, 1 FF and 1 FR.

The secondary has a lot of new names compared to past seasons, but so far so good, as RPI has only allowed 229 passing YPG and 4 TDs to go with 6 INTs. The Engineers rush defense has been very stout, allowing only 61.6 rush YPG and 2 scores all season.

On special teams, JR PK Zac Montrief has averaged 34.35 YPP, forcing 8 FC and dropping another 8 punts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. JR PK Sanjay Krishnan has handled FGs and PATs, converting 4-5 with a long of 34 yards. He also is the KO specialist, averaging over 56 YPKO. The return men for RPI have been numerous, but SO WR Matt Spellman and SR WR Delano Munoz Whatts have handled the majority of PR and KORs.

Keys to the Game:

1. Get Off to a Fast Start - Hobart has scored six points - both on JR PK Kyle Hackett FGs - in their opening drives so far this season. It would go a long way to get an early lead on the Engineers, especially at home where the Statesmen tend to play their best games. This is only RPI's second road game of the season, they're 0-1 and haven't scored any TDs away from the ECAV yet this season.

2. Win the TOM & TOP Battle - Hobart was -2 last weekend in the loss to Union. When RPI lost to WPI they were -3 and in the game against Utica, a narrow 2 point win back in Week 3, they were -1. Given the Statesmen's offensive struggles, they need to protect the football and look for ways to rattle Marinopolous into making somewhat rare mistakes. While he didn't turn over the ball against Rochester, he has thrown an INT in each of the three prior competitive games (against Allegheny, WPI and Utica), meaning Hobart should be able to come up with at least one Saturday. WPI and Utica also beat RPI in TOP, Utica especially, holding the ball for nearly 34 minutes. Hobart will need to put some drives together and convert a few third downs, which they haven't done a good job with this season, but the Engineers defense has been allowing opponents to convert them at over a 40% clip.

3. Air Raid - Speaking of Utica, they proved the Engineers secondary is susceptible to the pass. Neither WPI nor Utica could run the ball much against the RPI front six, and given the health and run-blocking challenges we've seen on the Hobart OL, we probably need a game plan similar to the one against Rowan. I wouldn't be surprised to see around 45 attempts or more Saturday.

Prediction:

The stats point to a win for the Engineers in this one by probably 10 points. The Statesmen will need to find a way to limit RPI's balanced attack and scoring opportunities. The Hobart defense has been tough to score on in the red zone, allowing only five TDs in 18 tries. Unfortunately the Statesmen offense has only scored 9 TDs in 21 trips. They will need to do better than that against the Engineers to win Saturday.

I'm hoping Hobart will be able to hang on in a close one.

We will see how the Statesmen respond to their first big adversity of the season. Thanks for reading and go 'Bart.


Sunday, October 6, 2019

Statesmen Season Stalls in Schenectady in 23-7 Loss to Union

I had to give myself the 24-hour rule on this one.

I consider the coaching staff as friends and/or acquaintances at least and we certainly share wanting the best for Hobart Football in common. Unfortunately if I am supposed to be a "reporter", "journalist" or "football analyst" sometimes I will have to say / write things that just won't / can't come off as positive. I know this is viewed negatively at HWS - I've been told as such (by people within the administration, not athletics, btw). Apparently criticism, constructive or otherwise, isn't welcome there, ever. Unfortunately I feel it's justified in this case and not surprisingly a lot of alums, fans and families I know feel the same way based on messages I've received in the last 24 hours. If you want a measured, kinder spin on the game, you can read the HWS recap here.

With LL play opening and rivalry bragging rights on the line, the Statesmen came out flat and found themselves in a 14-0 hole they never dug themselves out from. While the team showed some resiliency, a combination of poor play-calling and execution continued to put Hobart at a disadvantage against a Union (4-0, 1-0) team that simply came in healthier and more prepared off a bye week.

After pounding our chests for national respect and rankings, we gave it away quickly in what's a hard to stomach loss. While the loss doesn't end the Hobart season, it pretty much killed any chance of the Statesmen earning an at large playoff bid. Hobart will have to win out, going 9-1 and hope Union loses also, or they are guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the third season in a row. That said this was a game they had to win, especially with defending LL champ RPI (4-1, 1-0) coming to Geneva this weekend and then having to play Ithaca  (4-0, 1-0) on the road (where Hobart has never won) the following week.

What made this game hard to watch is how much Union HC Jeff Behrman out-coached the Hobart side all game, using Hobart's defensive scheme against them and taking advantage of the now obvious holes in the Statesmen's 3-4 approach. With no pressure of any kind of up the middle, the Dutchmen OL had no problem taking the Hobart DL out of the game and the draw play was open all day. SO RB Ike Irabor took advantage of that, cashing in to the tune of 182 rushing yards and two TDs.

Hobart went three and out on their first possession and the defense, which played off in fear of getting beat deep by SO WR Andre Ross, Jr. gave up several underneath routes and draws as Union covered 82 yards in 13 plays to start the game.

The Hobart offense - with a SR QB, SR WR corps, TE and RB were unable to provide any leadership as the OL struggled badly against the Dutchmen, allowing four sacks and eight TFL. HC Kevin DeWall '00 runs a tight ship, but some of the player attrition because of that demanding style has cost Hobart a lot of size, experience and depth on the OL, and that was noticeably a problem Saturday.

The Statesmen offense finished the game 2-15 on third downs and in the last three games is only averaging 14.33 PPG. This isn't a new problem as Hobart is 18-65 (27.69%) on third down this season. While FY RB Rayshawn Boswell has shined at times (he scored Hobart's only TD Saturday), the use and effectiveness of the run game has been inconsistent at best.

The one bright spot remains the defense which only allowed 16 points, including a FR by SO LB Dante Kimbraugh which led to the Boswell TD, in the loss. Players like SO LB Brian Aguilar and SR OLB David McCarthy had solid games, tallying 13 and 11 tackles each. McCarthy appeared badly injured in the first half - a stretcher was brought out as a precaution - but he miraculously popped up off the turf and was back in the game not long afterward. That's toughness.


Unfortunately, the quick McCarthy recovery was really the only good thing that happened for Hobart in the game (FY TE Mike Zaccone was also hurt in the opening drive and was seen in crutches not long after, hoping for the best there). Sure, the Statesmen had a few chances, but a combination of bad luck and poor execution at QB and the OL doomed them. A pick six on a poor read and throw by SR QB Ryan Hofmann put them down 14-0 and then, with a chance to make it at least a 4 point game just before halftime, SO QB David Krewson saw a sure completion on 3rd and 6 slip through his WR's fingers, bounce off his chest and into the waiting hands of Union LB Evan Gilland once again (he scored on the pick six and will probably be your LL DPOTW).

Inexplicably the defense went into prevent mode with just over 100 seconds to go in the half and Irabor took another draw play to the house, giving Union a 20-7 halftime lead. That 14 or let's say 10-point swing (it's realistic to think JR PK Kyle Hackett would have been able to convert a FG from the Union 16, even though he missed a 44-yard attempt earlier) basically was the final nail in the coffin.

The second half saw Union only needing a FG to ice the game as the Statesmen offense simply couldn't get it together. Their possessions ended with a punt, punt, INT (the third of the game), downs, downs and end of game.

Ironically, after beating them 33-7 in Week 1, it's safe to say Brockport, who's won four in a row and controls it's destiny in the E8, is now having a better season so far than the Statesmen. Football can be a cruel and ironic sport.

All Hobart can do now is learn from the hard lessons from this game and hope their next one, which is at home, is better executed. RPI comes in with a lot of confidence, having posted back-to-back 38-0 shutouts, but the Statesmen did beat the Engineers at the Boz back in 2017. That game was when RPI gave now JR QB George Marinopoulos his first real playing time. He's gone 19-4 as a starter since.

That's about all I have on this game. I'll have a preview for the RPI game up later this week.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart.

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Week 5 - Union Game Preview

The 21st ranked Hobart College Statesmen will open up Liberty League conference play Saturday against a familiar foe, the Union College Dutchmen. Both Hobart (4-0) and Union (3-0) enter this game undefeated for the first time since the 2005 season. The Dutchmen won that contest, 28-18, and as a one-loss team in 2006, handed the Statesmen their first loss of the 2006 regular season, 31-14. Those two seasons were the last times Union won the LL title.

Hobart barely trails the Dutchmen, 49-51-2 in the all-time series and I believe both are each other's second longest standing rival, this being the 103rd meeting (if my math is right). This season Union has beaten three teams by a combined 123-31 margin. To be fair, the combined W/L record of these opponents is only 1-11. Not exactly a murderer's row by any stretch.

Last season the Statesmen rallied from two 11-point and one 9-point deficits to comeback and clip Union by a score of 29-28. Then JR TE A.J. Perlino tied the game by making a 16-yard TD catch from JR QB Ryan Hofmann with 8:28 remaining, capping a five play, 85-yard drive. SO PK Kyle Hackett successfully converted the PAT, giving Hobart the lead. SO FS Cal Sullivan made one of the biggest plays of his young career not long after, intercepting a SO QB Will Bellamy pass at the Hobart five yard line. The offense would take the field and burn the clock, basically leaving the Dutchmen with only 25 seconds left at their own 30. The clock would run out on Union and Hobart won the game, 29-28.


Scouting the Dutchmen

I'm taking a bit of a critical stance on some the upcoming stats based on the teams Union has played so far to date. Union handled what appears to be a down Springfield College team in Week 3, 27-17, but HC Jeff Behrman was lukewarm post game in assessing how he felt the Dutchmen played that day.

That said we know Union has a potent offense, led by JR QB Will Bellamy who is more than capable. This season the Louisiana native has passed for over 500 yards, with a completion percentage of nearly 70%, finding the end zone seven times in three games.

His top target is once again SO WR Andre Ross, Jr. (last season's LL ROTY) who leads the Dutchmen with just under 200 receiving yards and four TDs. SR WR Griffin Beal however has been Bellamy's favorite, with a team high 13 catches, including one TD. SO RB Ike Irabor leads the ground attack with nearly 300 rush yards, but has seen his classmate SO RB Joseph Ferriera score two more TDs (for a total of 5) than him so far this season.

The Union OL is made up of three JRs - C Ryan Ehrets, LG Chris Katchadurian and RG Teddy Hood - and two underclassmen. Ehrets was a first-team all-conference selection last season. SO OL Tim Driscoll is the LT, who's a tall (6'6") but not that big (240 lbs) weight wise. The newest addition is FY RT Max Langsam who may lack experience, but isn't lacking in size standing at 6' 4", 290 lbs.

Defensively the Dutchmen run a similar 3-4 scheme that we're seeing Hobart execute so well. Last season Union's defense was a strength of the team, and given the (lack of) competition played to date, it's hard to get a real gauge on how strong this unit is, or not?

One player who is definitely strong, is JR LB Colin Lama who's off to an impressive start this season, leading the Dutchmen with 26 tackles, including 3.5 TFL. SR DE Vincent DiCaterino is the team's best pass rusher, tallying six TFL to go with two sacks and one INT. JR NT Daniel Gioioso is a stocky, but solid run-stuffer, who earned second team all-conference recognition last season. This year he's had 12 stops to go with 2.5 TFL.

SR PK Will Halpin, III handles most of the kicking duties for Union, including FGs (he converted a 24 yder against Anna Maria), punts and KOs. None of Halpin's six punts have been returned this season, three getting FC and the other three being downed inside the opponent's 20-yard line by the return team. He averages almost 55 yards on KOs, but he's had one TB and two of his KOs went out-of-bounds, so keep an eye out for angle kicks. For some reason FY LB Miguel Rodriguez has handled PAT duties, making 15-16. Halpin has kicked and converted only one PAT this season.

FY WR Kevin Rabacs and JR S Mark Zazzaro have split KOR duties, averaging about 25 YPKOR between them. JR WR Justin Faia has averaged about nine yards on PRs.

Keys to the Game:

1. Run and Protect the Football - The Pride (1-3) rushed for over 200 yards but committed three turnovers - an INT and two fumbles - back in Week 3 against the Dutchmen. The Statesmen returned to a more balanced attack against Montclair last weekend, rushing and passing for almost exactly 150 yards each. The Union secondary is mostly untested, seeing only 57 pass attempts in three games (by comparison Hobart opponents have thrown the ball 146 times over four games). A strong run game by the Statesmen can open up the passing game via play-action, especially given the depth and experience of Hobart's WR and TE group. SR QB Ryan Hofmann is struggling a bit with accuracy, with a sub-47% completion mark, but he's hit on long plays several times this season. The Statesmen will have chances to take some deep shots, but they need to lure the Dutchmen in by feeding SR RB Brian Haeffner and/or getting some RPO play calls in using SO QB David Krewson to throw off the Union defense. Speaking of defense, Hobart should constantly be looking to strip would-be Union runners, as the Dutchmen have fumbled five times already this season.

2. Embattle Bellamy - The Union QB has yet to throw any INTs this season and the Dutchmen OL has only allowed two QB sacks. If Hobart can chip away at limiting the Union offensive possessions (the Dutchmen are averaging close to 34 minutes TOP-wise) and pressure Bellamy into mistakes, the offense can capitalize and take what's likely to be a loud and full home crowd out of the game. Last season the Statesmen defense forced Bellamy to only hit on 50% of his attempts, sacked him three times and intercepted him twice.

3. Deal With Beal, but Don't Let Ross Over the Top - Ross, Jr. is averaging nearly 30 YPC this season, including a long of 58 yards. He is a legitimate deep threat the Statesmen secondary needs to neutralize. They failed to do so last season as he racked up six catches for 152 yards and a TD. Beal will get catches here and there, but Hobart has to watch Ross, Jr. from getting behind them.

Prediction:

This will be the best defense the Union offense will have faced this season, no doubt about that. The initial drives and series will set the tone in what I think may end up in a lower scoring, more defensive battle than what we saw last season. Union's defense is a bit of a mystery, so the Statesmen may need some time to execute their game plan and find the best match-ups to exploit. I do think the Union secondary could be a weak link.

I also feel like if Hobart can run the clock and avoid mistakes (e.g., Union is particularly penalty prone, already being flagged 20 times for almost -200 yards or basically -66 YPG), the Statesmen can get a hard-fought road win against this undefeated Dutchmen squad.

I like Hobart to win it in a lower-scoring affair, 24-14.

Thanks for reading as always, and go 'Bart!

Saturday, September 28, 2019

#22/25 Statesmen Pick Off Red Hawks On Homecoming, 16-3

The #22/25 Hobart College Statesmen defeated the Montclair State Red Hawks today at Boswell Field on Homecoming and Family Weekend, 16-3. The Halftime-Adjustment Hobart defense intercepted JR QB Ja'Quill Burch three times in the second half and forced a fumble to help the Statesmen to a 4-0 run in OOC play. The loss drops Montclair State to 1-2 on the season.

The See Saw Statesmen had some struggles with some more bad snaps and shaky passing plays to start the game. To their credit, the OL did a great job in the run game, churning out 152 rush yards and didn't allow a QB sack. SR QB Ryan Hofmann finished the game going for 120 yards and SR WR/P John DelliSanti completed a nifty 29-yard pass on a fake punt - which came just after Coach DeWall '00 called a great fake on a 51-yard FG attempt that got called back on a penalty.

Speaking of penalties, the officials threw a lot of flags today, including eight on Montclair for -75 yards. Hobart was the more disciplined side, only getting flagged three times for -15 yards.

Early on the Hobart had to settle on a couple of JR PK Kyle Hackett FGs and took a narrow 6-3 lead into halftime. Hackett (who is now in the Top 10 all-time scorers in Hobart history with 169 points) added a third FG, a 25-yarder, to push the Statesmen's lead to 9-3 with 7:29 to go in the third. Although they threatened throughout the game, neither team could find the end zone until the fourth quarter when SR RB and co-captain Brian Haeffner got his first TD of the season. Haeffner's run capped an eight play, 69-yard drive which included a potential game changing pick six by Montclair. The Red Hawks were called for a defensive penalty, negating the TD and Hobart never looked back. Haeffner finished the day with 90 rushing yards.

The Statesmen defense was once again led by JR OLB Emmett Forde with an 11 tackle, 1.5 TFL and FF game. While the Hobart D didn't get any sacks, they were the MVPs with a six TFL, four turnover day. JR CB Jared Leake had two INTs in the game to go with five solo stops. SR FS Andrew Koonz had the other INT late in the fourth quarter, all but sealing the game for Hobart.

The win sets up a high stakes LL opener between the Statesmen and long-time foe, Union College (3-0). The Dutchmen, like Montclair, will have had an extra week to prepare for the game which is slated for next Saturday in Schenectady.

I'll have more on that one early next week.

Thanks again for reading and go 'Bart!

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Week 4 - Montclair State / Homecoming Game Preview

The #25 Hobart College Statesmen (or #22, depending on which Top 25 poll you follow) will wrap up OOC play this Saturday in one of the more highly anticipated match-ups in the East Region. The Montclair State University Red Hawks, who were picked to compete for the NJAC title this season, come into Geneva looking to keep the momentum of a Week 2 win after getting stunned, 34-21, by Southern Virginia (2-0) in Week 1.

MSU (1-1) had a solid 28-11 win over Salve Regina (1-2) in Week 2 and an extra week to prepare for Hobart. The Statesmen (3-0), who needed a last second FG to put away their NJAC cohort, Rowan (0-3), got basically zero credit for that win last Saturday. Skeptics expected a more one-sided game and so it seems like the Statesmen mostly made the Top 25 based on nine or so losses other teams had between the 10-25 spots in the poll. Still, the pollsters are giving Hobart respect based on the schedule played to date, and deservedly so, especially compared to other East Region and LL schools. That said, a strong win over the Red Hawks, who have never faced off against the Statesmen, could get the doubters on the Hobart bandwagon.


Scouting the Red Hawks

A thorough look at the MSU season to date can be seen here.

My main take-away from that article is that the Red Hawks believed a little too much of their hype going into Week 1 against what's normally a doormat SoVA team. Clearly the loss has woken them up, and while they didn't beat Salve too soundly, it was a win they should have earned and did.

MSU's success really rides on the arm of JR QB Ja'Quill Burch, who was my preseason pick for NJAC OPOTY. Against SoVA however, he was turnover prone, throwing three INTs. The OL held their own giving up a sack and 2 TFL. The Red Hawks OL is an experienced group with four starters back from last season, led by SR OL Stephen Gaffney. Gaffney was named to the Preseason D3football.com All-American third team. A sixth blocker is JR TE Jack Welti, who at 6'5", 235lbs. is a big target, but so far hasn't caught a pass this season.

The Red Hawks defense by comparison sacked the SoVA QB once but had eight TFL. The longest drive the Knights had that day was only 35 yards, not including a 43-yard KO return for a TD. Basically everything that could have gone wrong for MSU in that game did and so their defensive stats are a bit skewed because of it.

Burch would rebound against Salve, passing for 292 yards and three TDs. He was moderately accurate, going 12-22 (54%) with an INT, but the passes he connected on went for big gains against the Seahawk's defense. The OL struggled a bit more in this game, giving up two sacks and 10 TFL, which probably contributed to Burch's accuracy numbers.

Burch has three WRs he's mostly distributed the ball to including SR WR Kason Campbell (7-183, 1 TD), JR WR Karsen Johnson (5-142, 2 TDs) and SR WR Mike Manzo-Lewis (6-118, 1 TD). JR RB Craig Merkle has rushed for 171 yards on 38 carries and a TD. His YPR stats are bolstered due to a 71 run he had for a TD late in the game against Salve. SR RB Ralph McLean has been more of a short yardage specialist, with 16 carries for 42 yards.

The Red Hawks defense is led by SO DB Zack Zaccone who's tallied 19 tackles, two TFL and one INT. SO DB Brennan Ray leads the team with 1.5 sacks and 3.5 TFL (which leads me to believe the Statesmen need to keep a blocker in the backfield to ward off incoming blitzes from the secondary).

MSU runs a variation of the 3-3-5 stack defense which Hobart has struggled with in the past. It will be interesting to see if the Statesmen stick with the pass-centric attack they used against Rowan or if we may see a return to some balance? I'm expecting limited rushing attempts once again as the Red Hawks are tough to run on, allowing only 88.5 YPG, 2.3 YPR and a single rushing TD in two games.

On special teams the Red Hawks have tried two punters with limited success, averaging under 25 YPP with two blocks. This could an opportunity Hobart can exploit Saturday. Their punt return average is negative, so not much to worry about there, but the KO return stats aren't bad - averaging over 21 YPKO. Campell, one of the WRs, has been successful here, returning three kicks for 80 yards with a long of 38. SO PK Anthony Marinelli has averaged 42.5 YPKO and has gone 1-2 on FGs so far this season. His long of 22 initially made me think MSU would be more aggressive play-calling wise inside the opponent's 30 or 20-yard line, but so far they've only attempted one 4th-down conversion this season.

Jon McGriff P'15 will be leading the charge from the stands Saturday

Keys to the Game:

1. Focus on the Fundamentals: Low, bad snaps, turnovers and penalties have to be cut down. While the latter hasn't been an issue so far for the Statesmen, last weekend Hobart almost lost the game because of the former three. Assuming he's back at center, JR OL Alex Lanzana needs to deliver a better ball to SR QB Ryan Hofmann to give him the extra time he needs to see the field and not force passes like he had to last weekend.

2. Don't Get Burned - The Statesmen are still giving up more passing yards than they are gaining, but the good news is, they've only allowed three passing TDs so far this season. Burch will look for deep pass plays against the Hobart secondary, so it'll be incumbent on the Statesmen DL and LBs to create pressure up front. The MSU OL has allowed only three sacks in two games but they have allowed 12 TFLs. Hobart has 10 sacks on the season to date to go with 29 TFL, so they appear to have an edge there. While the Hawks had success with the long ball against Salve, the MSU red zone offense has not been very good overall so far this season. They have only scored twice on five trips inside the red zone, one TD and a 22-yard FG. By comparison, Hobart's defense has allowed four TDs on 12 trips into their red zone this season.

3. Special Teams - The Statesmen have a clear advantage on special teams and could use a play like the one JR FS Cal Sullivan made here in Week 2 (see below). I had an exchange with SLU HC Dan Puckhaber prior to Week 3 and encouraged him to blitz the Mustangs since it helped Hobart in the second half of their game. He smartly replied, "[Two] blocked punts helped too." MSU has given up a couple of punt blocks already. Let's see if the Statesmen can get at least one more on Saturday.


4. Win on 3rd-Down: The Red Hawks are making and allowing 3rd-down conversions 38% of the time so far this season. The Statesmen on the other hand have only converted at a 27% vs. 40% rate. The Hobart offense needs to do a better job extending drives. While the Hobart D has held up their end of the bargain - holding opponents to only 16 PPG, including an impressive run in the final 13 minutes of the Rowan game where the Statesmen held the Profs 25 yards on 15 plays - the Statesmen defense has been on the field for an average of 35+ minutes per game which isn't a sustainable model, in my opinion.

Prediction:

This should be the biggest crowd of the season given the Homecoming and Family Weekend festivities. I hope to hear and see a packed Boz (and maybe a game video that has real-time and tracked audio that matches the visual...?), which should give the Statesmen an extra boost. I think this will be a tough fight, but I think some of the intangibles from the defense and special teams, with a better executed offensive game-plan, can win the day for Hobart.

I'll take the Statesmen to win and go to 4-0 by a score of 27-14.

Keep an eye out for In the D3FB Huddle's Week 3 recap show coming out later today.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!