It will be another case of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object when Hobart and their Liberty League (LL) leading scoring offense, averaging 31.5 points per game (PPG), faces the leading scoring defense (14.7 PPG – good for top 20 in all of DIII) of the Worcester Polytechnic Institute this Saturday at Boswell Field.
After a promising start to 2010, WPI (3-4, 1-3) has stumbled of late losing three in a row after a somewhat surprising 24-10 victory over RPI on 9/25. The Statesmen (4-2, 3-1) lead the all-time series 6-0 and defeated the Engineers with relative ease last season in Worcester by a 41-20 margin.
That said WPI has a new head coach in Chris Robertson who specializes in defense. WPI’s pass defense is tops in the league allowing only 100.9 YPG through the air. The Engineers also lead the LL in total defense (240.7 YPG) and have only allowed 13 touchdowns over seven games.
SO LB Chris O’Connor leads all WPI defenders with 52 total tackles, while SRs DL Brendan Gove and co-captains LB Michael Oliveri and FS Jack Mulhern have 39, 33 and 31 tackles, respectively. Gove and Oliveri also both have 2.5 sacks a piece on the year.
Another area that WPI excels in is turnover margin, where they lead the LL with an impressive +12 compared to Hobart’s -7 (second to last in the LL). They are also the second least penalized team in the LL whereas the Statesmen are the most. JR DB John Perron is third in the LL with 4 interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.
That said the problem for WPI in recent weeks has been the offense, which has averaged less than 14 PPG during their current losing streak. The Engineers are last in the LL in passing, throwing for a paltry 81 YPG. However, where the Engineers excel is in the running game, where they are currently #1 in the LL averaging 190.9 YPG. By comparison Hobart is second with 154.3 YPG. The WPI rushing attack is lead by JR RB Ernie Mello who has racked up 530 yards and three rushing touchdowns. Mello leads the LL in yards per carry (5.2). JR QB Pat McAuley has gone 58 for 133 for 533 passing yards, including 5 TD and 4 INT. The JR QB has also rushed for 311 yards and 1 touchdown.
On special teams, JR PK Cody Beckel has booted eight FGs on the season, which is good for a #2 ranking in the LL, with a long of 30 yards.
Keys to game:
1. Shut down the run; force the pass – WPI will likely focus on rushing the ball so look for Hobart to stack the line with their linebackers and blitz FY S Devin Worthington regularly. The Statesmen will likely bring pressure on most plays, but need to be careful not to get sloppy on contain assignments if McAuley decides to run. If Hobart is successful in limiting the run game, the Statesmen could have some opportunities to pick off McAuley given his relative inexperience as a passing QB.
2. Avoid turnovers and penalties – Hobart’s achilles heel has been this category all season and it will likely ultimately cost them a NCAA berth if they lose another game and/or Saint Lawrence doesn’t win one of its last two games. Given WPI’s opportunistic defense’s ability to force turnovers, the Statesmen will need to be extra careful with the ball. The interceptions last week in the MMA game gave the Mariners new life in a game that Hobart otherwise was completely dominating.
3. Run to set up play action – Last season Statesmen QB Doug Vella only completed nine passes against this Engineer team, but did throw for 192 yards and a touchdown. Vella was fairly effective last week, other than the two interceptions in the third quarter, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns. I imagine JR WR Garth Muratori will get more looks downfield given last week’s 129 yard and three touchdown performance against MMA, but given the strength of the WPI pass defense, it may make sense for Vella to hand the ball off and look for shorter patterns to his TEs and RBs coming out of the backfield. Hopefully Steven Webb and the stable of Statesmen runners will get many opportunities to carry the ball. Last season Hobart had eight different ball carriers en route to a 198 yard rushing day that tallied five rushing touchdowns.
Prediction:
I like Hobart to get another win at the “Boz” this weekend as they hang on for dear life in the LL playoff race. WPI’s defense will be tough, but the Engineer offense just isn’t potent enough to keep up with the Statesmen’s.
Therefore, I’ll take Hobart 28-14 in this one. Kickoff is Saturday at noon. Game notes are up and can be accessed here:
http://www.hwsathletics.com/documents/2010/10/27/WPInotes.pdf
Go ‘Bart!
If I recall correctly, last week we had 11 penalties for 90 yards. Penalties are killing us. Hobart needs discipline in a big way. The Statesmen are a good team, but the penalties are detracting from their efforts.
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