The #22 Hobart Statesmen will host long-time Centennial Conference (CC) rival Dickinson College this Saturday at Boswell Field. Kickoff is slated for 12 PM ET and will be broadcast on WEOS 89.7 FM (www.weos.org). Last season the Hobart defense pitched a shutout until the fourth quarter while the offense gained over 500 yards en route to a lopsided 33-9 victory in Carlisle, PA.
After a strong run during the 2006-2009 seasons, tougher times have fallen on the Red Devils. Dickinson finished last season with a 4-6 mark, going 4-5 in the CC. While this was a slight improvement from their 2010 campaign, it is not reminiscent of Dickinson’s past success. Part of the challenge for Dickinson over this time period has been lack of a dominant QB since the graduation of Ian Mitchell (’10) and struggles on defense.
Last fall Dickinson had Cole Ahnell, Todd Smolinsky and Ricky Martz line up at QB. Martz was a SR last season, so unless he’s back for a 5th year, the battle for QB is likely between Ahnell and Smolinsky. Ahnell had better overall numbers (60.2% completions for 652 yards including four TDs compared to three INTs) but QB is once again “up for grabs” this fall camp per Head Coach Darwin Breaux.
All three of the Red Devils’ leading receivers and their leading rusher also graduated meaning RB Kyle Smith may have to carry the offense, at least early on, this season.
On defense Dickinson lost their All-Conference FS Scott Sullivan to graduation but they return their #2 tackler in JR LB Mike Miller (86 tackles including 5.5 TFL, one sack, two interceptions and fumble recoveries). SR DL Schuyler Simpson (38 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks and one forced fumble) is also back but with many key holes to fill, the CC coaches picked the Devils to finish 7th (out of 10 teams) in preseason polls.
Keys to the game:
1. Get off to a good start – Hobart flirted with disaster in this game last year fumbling on their first play from scrimmage. Fortunately the defense was up to the task and turned away Dickinson on fourth and goal before the offense settled down and scored on their ensuing drive. Look for Coach DeWall to ease his rebuilt OL into this game, but Hobart will have a size advantage up front as the Red Devils' DL averages only 237 lbs (based on the 2011 roster).
2. Turnovers – The Statesmen defense wreaked havoc on the Dickinson offense last season. JR CB Connor Garrett and JR OLB Devin Worthington both had interceptions and Dickinson WR Cam Di Fede fumbled what otherwise would have been the Devils’ first touchdown of the game resulting in a touchback. Hobart, the initial fumble aside, controlled the ball for the remainder of the contest and, if not for taking their foot off the pedal late in the game, probably could have shutout Dickinson.
3. Special teams – One of a handful of highlights for Dickinson in last season’s contest against Hobart was a 98 yard two point PAT return off a blocked extra point (the Statesmen had missed an earlier attempt as well). Although we didn’t know it at the time, this play was a harbinger of (mostly) poor special teams plays by the Statesmen the remainder of the 2011 season. While I hope Hobart doesn’t have to settle for FG’s in this game, it would be nice to see a good start for the kicking game in 2012.
4. Remember (but don’t dwell on) the past – The last time Hobart entered the preseason in the Top 25 was 2009. They sported a #15 ranking until they were soundly defeated 26-3 by Dickinson in the season opener. The three points for Hobart was the worst offensive showing since 1993. Fortunately for the 2012 Statesmen guys like Greg Lord, Pat McNeal and Ian Mitchell no longer play for the Red Devils. The Hobart SRs should remember this game (and I guarantee you Asst Coach Kyle O’Laughlin ’11 - who lead Hobart with 12 tackles in the 2009 contest - does) and how being a “preseason favorite” can backfire. In spite of their recent struggles, Dickinson can’t be taken too lightly. In fact the Red Devils lead in the all-time series 9-10-1 and Hobart hasn’t beaten the Devils three years in a row since the 2004-2006 seasons.
Prediction:
The OL and DBs for Hobart are the biggest question marks for me entering this season. The good news regarding the DBs is that Dickinson isn’t really a passing team (they attempted 219 passes compared to 407 running plays in 2011). The good news for the Hobart OL is that they will face an undersized and younger Dickinson defense which should aid them in getting off to a good start.
The bottom line is you have a team predicted to finish 7th in their conference vs. a defending conference champion that is returning most of their key players. If that isn’t a lopsided match up (which is not uncommon this time of year), then maybe I am missing something? That said I’ll take Hobart to win 35-7.
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