My apologies for posting so late in the week. Contrary to popular belief, I do have a day job and that got in the way of getting this out sooner. Without further ado, the Hobart Statesmen (2-0) are back up to #7 in the D3football.com Top 25 poll and will open conference play this Saturday in Kings Point. They face off against the United States Merchant Marine Academy Mariners (USMMA) at 2 PM.
The Academy (3-0) is off to its best start since the 1997 season and boasts one of the best offensive players in the country. SO QB Matt McDaniels leads the nation in total rushing yards with 538 and is third in the nation with 189.3 YPG. SR OLB Matthrew Morse leads the Mariners defense with 25 tackles. While the USMMA offense gets a lot of press, the defense is no pushover. The Mariners are allowing only 18 PPG and 285.7 YPG in total defense. By comparison Hobart has allowed 14 PPG and 276 YPG in total defense.
To be fair, teams like Coast Guard, SUNY-Maritime and Susquehanna aren't at the same level of Hobart, who with SR RB Steven Webb, boasts a 178.5 YPG rushing average, good for sixth in the nation. Webb is also, as WEOS' Ted Baker likes to call him, a "touchdown maker", averaging 15 PPG (fifth in the nation). Webb is also sixth in the nation in all purpose yards with 218 YPG.
Ultimately I view this game as a "something's got to give" scenario as each teams' total rushing offense is around three times what they allow in rushing defense. The MMA have struggled with strong passing teams in the past, so it'll be interesting to see whether or not JR QB Patrick Conlan will get more of an opportunity to pass the ball more?
Keys to the Game:
1. Win the LOS - when two strong running offensive and defensive teams play, it's all about the trenches. Hobart has a definite size advantage over the Mariners given the latter have strict weight and body fat percentage requirements per the Academy.
1b. Improve third down conversions - The Statesmen offense has put up a lot of yards and points, but their 3rd down work needs improvement. Hobart is next to last in the LL with only seven 3rd down conversions (out of 22 attempts, a 31.8% conversion percentage). With a tough rush defense like the Mariners, the Statesmen offense needs to move the chains and keep McDaniels off the field.
2. Stay in your gaps - The Statesmen defense struggled last season against the MMA's triple option, often overpuising and missing their gap assignments in the first half. Players like SO DE Mark Guarino-Hyde, SO DT Tucker Gumkowski and JR DT Troy Johnson are all a year older and wiser having played four option teams in the 2012 season.
3. Air it out (and be ready on defense for MMA to do the same) - The Mariners allow 177 YPG through the air and could be suspectible to Hobart's passing game if Conlan performs better. SO DB Sklyer Stone is tied for second in the LL with five passes defended, but a shoulder injury has had him sidelined for the last couple of weeks and his status for the Hobart game is uncertain. The Statesmen defense has to be ready for the long ball themselves, as McDaniels does have a good arm. The Mariners don't pass much (only 20 attempts in three games), but those plays have averaged 18.5 YPP, and have accounted for two of USMMA's 10 TDs on the season. SR RB/WR Connor Kennedy has 123 yards and one receiving TD, including a long of 71 yards, so Hobart can't sleep on the long ball.
Prediction: Hobart holds a 9-0 series record vs. the Mariners since the two teams joined the LL. Last season the Statesmen struggled with the USMMA and the triple option out of the gate and went into the half only up 14-6. Hobart regrouped in the second half and put the Mariners away, 42-21. The USMMA looks improved this season but I am not sure they will be the team that knocks off a top ranked Hobart squad. I'll pick the Statesmen to play the role of spoiler at the Mariners' Homecoming by the score of 35-21.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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