Normally “Union Week” is the most anticipated one of the regular season. Unfortunately for the Dutchmen, a combination of injuries and key mistakes in close games have seen them limp to a 1-6, 1-3 record making this game not have (for this fan anyway) the same sense of urgency as in prior seasons.
To be fair, eighth ranked Hobart (7-0, 4-0) needs to win this weekend to continue their pursuit of a fourth straight LL title. At this point, it appears the Statesmen are on a collision course with Saint Lawrence (6-1, 4-0), who plays WPI (3-4, 2-2) this Saturday. While I don’t see the Union matchup as a “trap game” given the long history and rivalry between the two programs, the Statesmen will need to execute and exploit the Dutchmen’s weaknesses in order to stay on track. If Hobart and SLU win Saturday, their game on November 8th in Canton will be for the LL title and accompanying NCAA AQ berth.
The all time series has Union with a 50-45-2 edge. The rivalry is Hobart’s second oldest, dating all the way back to 1896. Last season the Statesmen defeated the Dutchmen for the fourth year in a row, 41-20.
Scouting Union
#27 SR RB Darnel Thomas – a captain and one of the top RBs in the conference, Thomas has gained 777 yards on 158 carries (4.9 YPC) this season. He’s scored four rushing TDs and has caught 19 passes for 129 receiving yards.
#12 FY QB Dante Cioffi – Once the third string QB, Cioffi has worked his way up the depth chart via injuries and hard work. While he’s struggled as a starter so far, completing only 43% of his passes with no passing TDs and three interceptions, he’s a big kid (6’3” 225) with a strong arm.
#1 SR WR Kyle Reynolds – leads the team with 501 receiving yards on 35 catches and scoring four TDs.
#2 JR WR Andrew Baker – another strong receiver, Baker has 378 yards and four scores with a team long of 61 yards.
#42 JR DE Jake LaRovera – leads Union with 60 total tackles, tied for team lead with two INTs.
#44 JR LB Thomas Hayes – one of the better LBs in the LL, Hayes is big (6’2” 245) and physical. He has 51 stops and team high five and a half TFL and two sacks.
#96 JR PK David Pope – went 3-3 on FGs and 1-1 on PATs to account for 10 of Union’s 16 points in last week’s 16-14 win over Rochester (4-3, 2-2). Pope has also averaged 59.7 yards on kickoffs.
#35 FY P Tyler Barnes – averages 35.9 yards as the Dutchmen’s punter (hopefully we will see him a good deal ;).
Keys to the Game:
1. Start Fast, Stay Furious – In spite of their difficulties in the W/L column, most of Union’s games have been close. If Hobart can jump out to an early lead, it’ll force Cioffi to have to play catch up, leading him vulnerable to the Statesmen’s pass rush. Union’s OL has allowed 22 sacks in seven games and I expect Hobart to increase that number by around six or more Saturday like they did against RPI.
2. Third Down – Speaking of the Engineers, RPI (4-4, 1-3) held Hobart to four of 10 third down conversations last Saturday which kept the first half a little bit closer than it would have been otherwise. Union’s offense has struggled on third down, converting only 30.8% (33 of 107) but their defense has been solid only allowing a 37.5% (36 of 96) conversion rate.
3. Go Vertical – The Dutchmen’s defense have struggled the most against good passing teams and they allow nearly 215 passing YPG and 14 YPC.
Prediction:
Sunday I believe I called a 33-14 Hobart victory. Hopefully some of the post-bye week rust will be off the offense, which tends to play better at home. The Statesmen “O” has averaged 37 PPG at the “Boz” this season and I could see Hobart break 40 points Saturday if they get on a roll. While Union does have some good athletes, I can’t see them doing much against the Statesmen defense. That said I’ll revise my prediction to Hobart winning 42-7.
Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!
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