The 7/9th ranked Hobart College Statesmen (12-0) will travel to Dover, DE to take on the 4/5th ranked Wesley College Wolverines in the Elite 8 of the NCAA D3 playoffs. Wesley (11-1) has steamrolled their competition and is undefeated (7-0) in D3 play this season. They lost a hard fought 38-33 contest to second year FCS UNC-Charlotte (a team with 85 scholarship players) back on November 15. Even in the loss the Wolverines piled up 530 yards of offense, including 356 passing yards.
In the NCAA playoffs Wesley has dominated their opponents, winning by a combined 111-7 while averaging close to 550 yards of offense per game.
The Wolverines have averaged 51.9 PPG on the season while their ball hawk defense has only allowed 9.9 PPG. A good reason for the defense’s success has come from turnovers. Wesley has collected 26 interceptions (INT), 21 forced fumbles, four blocked kicks, 119 tackles for loss (TFL) for -535 yards and 37 sacks for -276 yards.
The last time Hobart faced Wesley was back in the first round of the NCAA playoffs in 2011 when the Class of 2015 were FY. That season backup QB Kelly Olney ‘13 led the Statesmen in a valiant effort fighting back from 14 point deficits four times during the game to pull within 35-28 at the end of the third quarter before falling to Wesley by the same score.
FY (now SR) WR Steve Koudossou gashed the Hobart secondary for 72 and 66 yard TD catches. QB Shane McSweeny had a big day going 18 for 27 for 336 passing yards and five TDs compared to only one INT. What kept Hobart in the game was three fumbles forced by the Statesmen defense plus a punt block that was returned for a TD by Devin Worthington ’14. The Statesmen had a limited kicking game that season and opted to go for it three times on fourth and goal – two of which came in the fourth quarter - but came up short on the tries which ended up being the key difference in the game.
Scouting the Wolverines:
#14 SR QB Joe Callahan – a Gagliardi trophy semi-finalist, Callahan is easily the best QB Hobart will have faced this and several prior seasons. He has thrown for 3,435 yards and 43 TDs compared to only five INTs. He’s very accurate, going 238 for 355 (67%) and will likely get an invite to Salem as a Gagliardi finalist as one of the four best college FB players in D3.
#88 SR WR Steve Koudossou – Although not large in stature (~5’9” 170 lbs), Koudossou is probably the best WR in D3. He has 58 receptions for 1,170 yards and 15 TDs this season. In his excellent career, Koudossou is best in the playoffs and his stats - 12 games with 59 catches for 1227 yards and 19 TDs – back that up.
#8 SO RB Jamar Baynard – leads the Wesley rushing attack with 762 yards on 176 carries (4.3 AVG) and nine TDs. Given the Wolverines are really a passing team, Baynard is also a receiving threat catching 35 passes for 568 yards and four TDs.
#85 SO WR Bryce Shade – a return specialist, Shade has returned 20 kickoffs for 482 yards (24.1 AVG) and one TD. He’s second on the team with 38 receptions which have gone for 369 yards and five scores.
#1 SR LB Sosthene Kapepula - leads the Wesley defense with 76 total tackles. Kapepula has also tallied 9.5 TFL, two sacks, three INTs and two forced fumbles.
#9 SR DE Aamir Petrose – A real pass rush threat, Petrose leads the Wolverines defense with nine sacks and 22 TFL.
#4 SR CB Leon Jones – leads the Wesley ball hawking secondary with five INT.
Keys to the Game:
1. Protect the Football – The Statesmen will need to channel their 4+ turnover margin performance of 2011 to have a good shot at an upset Saturday. Wesley has made a good living capitalizing and scoring points off of opponent’s mistakes. Their quick strike offense can pile up the points so it’s imperative for Hobart to take care of the football on offense and control the TOP as much as they can. Saturday's forecast has an 80% chance for rain meaning the ball will be slick and fumbles could follow. While the rain may help Hobart in slowing down Wesley's passing game, it could spell trouble if the Statesmen struggle with possession.
2. Collapse The Pocket On Callahan & Cut Up Koudossou – The Statesmen DL and LBs will need to create pressure on the Wesley passing attack while taking the pressure off their injury depleted and inexperienced secondary. To the latter’s credit, they did step up against Hopkins last week but SR WR Quinn Donaldson did burn them a couple of times. Koudossou is about 10x better than Donaldson, so Hobart will need to avoid many 1:1 situations and “bring the lumber” when they wrap up this outstanding receiver.
3. Run Like Hell - while I'm dating myself with the Pink Floyd reference, UNC-Charlotte's key to success vs. Wesley was the fact they scored three rushing TDs against the Wolverines. Easier said than done given no D3 opponents save for Rowan were able to run in a TD on the Wolverines D (which otherwise only allows only two YPC on the season).
4. Never Surrender – not many road teams win at this stage in the playoffs and it’s been well chronicled what the Statesmen’s playoff road record looks like. The Statesmen need to stay loose and enjoy the opportunity to lock horns with an elite football program. In 2012 Hobart struggled with turnovers and fell behind early on their way to a lopsided 47-7 Elite 8 loss to eventual Stagg Bowl runner up St. Thomas. Compared to UST, Wesley is a much smaller school (enrollment figures range from 1339 to 1600+ given a few graduate programs), but there’s nothing D3 about their football program (the 11% four year graduation rate reported by US News & World Report and the fact Wesley's Head Coach also happens to be the "Executive Director Intercollegiate Sports" and is a direct report to the College President and a peer to the head of Admissions kind of speaks for itself).
Hobart really has nothing to lose from the perspective all the experts will pick the Wolverines to win this going away so it should motivate the Statesmen to prove them wrong or at least acquit themselves as best they can.
Prediction:
Wesley has made it to the national quarterfinals nine of the last 10 seasons. Hobart has gone two of the last three. This game will be a good measuring stick both on how far the Statesmen have come and to what extent there is still a big divide between the top three or four elite D3 football teams and the rest of the Top 10.
Although the Wolverines look unstoppable, they did lose five D3 games in the past two seasons (to be fair three of the five were one to Mount Union and two to Mary-Hardin Baylor) so if Hobart plays their best, they have a shot.
On Sunday’s ITH I predicted a best case scenario of 34-31 for the Statesmen. My ITH co-host Frank Rossi (who, along with Gordon Mann, will provide a video broadcast of the game) may have been more pragmatic with a 47-24 Wesley pick, but I hope it’s a much more competitive contest.
We’ll find out Saturday.
No matter what happens, Frank and I will recap the game, including highlight clips and more, Sunday at 7:30 PM at www.inthehuddlle.com.
Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!
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