The Hobart College Statesmen will host old time rival, the RPI Engineers, this Saturday at Boswell Field in what's basically a playoff elimination game for Hobart.
The Engineers (5-2, 3-1) are coming off of a 35-21 win over Rochester (4-2, 2-2) where their OL opened up a lot of running lanes en route to a 239 yards rushing performance.
RPI was the last team to defeat the Statesmen at Boswell Field in a regular season game dating back to Nov. 5, 2011. The series between these two schools dates all the way back to 1910 and is virtually even with Hobart holding a slight 29-28-1 all time edge (Hobart and RPI didn't play each other between the 1920's-60's, and it looks like it wasn't until the 1964 season that the teams really started playing on a regular basis).
Last season the Statesmen had one of their most dominant performances of 2014, scoring 21 points in the third quarter, to defeat the Engineers, 35-3, in Troy, NY.
Scouting the Engineers
RPI's option offense starts with #12 SR QB and Co-Captain Jeff Avery. Avery leads the LL with 1,617 passing yards and 15 TDs. His accuracy numbers are ok at 57.7%, but the most notable stat is he has only thrown one INT in seven games. Big (6'3") and mobile, Avery has carried the ball 49 times for 157 yards this season.
The Engineers have a pair of very solid runners in #21 SR RB Nick Schlatz and #6 SO RB Mike Tivinis. These RBs are ranked eighth and eleventh overall averaging 61.4 and 51.3 YPG, respectively.
Avery's favorite targets in the passing game are #85 SR WR Logan Gaddar and #18 SO RB Johnny Ramsdell. A tall, lanky receiver, Gaddar towers over most DBs at 6'5" and his wingspan is a big reason he leads the LL with seven receiving TDs. Ramsdell is tied for third place with four receiving TDs.
Along with a solid OL, RPI is the second highest scoring offense (30 PPG), second ranked passing offense (231 YPG) and third ranked rushing offense (183.3 YPG). The OL has only allowed seven sacks so far this season as well which is a big reason why Avery (who missed most of 2014 with rib / abdomen injury) is playing at such a high level.
Defensively the Engineers are the number one scoring (16 PPG), rushing (120.6 YPG) and fifth rated passing defense (167 YPG). A ball hawking defense is led by #94 SR LB and Co-Captain Anthony Pilla (33 total tackles and five sacks), #44 JR LB Alexander Greenidge (50 tackles), #31 SR DB Phillip Lanieri III (three INTs) and #24 SR DB Teague Florio (two INTs including one pick six).
#4 SO PK Christian Knapp has taken over the kicking duties since the graduation of current Miami Dolphins PK Andrew Franks (who hit a 30 yarder Sunday against Tennessee). Knapp is perfect on PATs (28) but has struggled with FGs, connecting only two of seven attempts.
Keys to the Game
1. Home Sweet Home - If the Statesmen ever needed home field advantage this game is probably coming at the perfect time after the disappointing collapse against Springfield. Hobart hasn't lost at the "Boz" in the regular season since that 11/5/11 game against RPI. The Statesmen will need to start off quickly against a tough RPI team that will be gunning to take Hobart down. The weather forecast looks pretty good for Saturday (cloudy with a high of 59), but you never know how things may change Upstate....
2. Rush Defense - RPI runs the ball about 46 times on average and will pass about 31 times. The Statesmen are the top rated passing defense (89.8 YPG and only four passing TDs in six games) so it stands to reason that Hobart's sixth ranked rushing defense (152.2 YPG) needs to be ready and improve Saturday against a strong Engineers running game.
3. Converting - RPI is second in the LL an average 21 first downs per game, while Hobart is last with only 14. The Statesmen will need to up that average against RPI's top rated defense which allows only 13.7 first downs per game and 28.4% of their opponents third down conversions. Hobart is actually the best defense in the LL, just ahead of RPI, in limiting their opponents to only a 25.6% third down conversion rate. The winner of this game will also need to control the clock. Part of Hobart's wearing down against Springfield was that the defense was on the field for 36+ minutes. RPI leads the LL in TOP with an average of 33:20. The Statesmen will need to convert their possessions and limit RPI's. Hobart has to get it's running game (ranked dead last in the LL with only 96.8 YPG) on track. If they don't, it's going to be tough to overcome RPI.
Prediction
The statistics point to this game being a RPI win. They are playing better football at the moment, but they haven't beaten the Statesmen in four seasons. Hobart is very hard to beat at home - including the playoffs the Statesmen are 27-4 all time since the Boz was renovated back in 2010 (and three of those home losses occurred before the 2012 season so the Statesmen SR class has only lost at the Boz once).
In spite of RPI's offensive prowess, I think this will be a defensive struggle and low scoring game. I also think Hobart will make just enough plays to win it, but by a narrow margin. I'll take the Statesmen 24-21.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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