The Hobart College Statesmen (may) close out their 2015 season on the road to long time rival, the Rochester Yellow Jackets Saturday at Fauver Stadium. Order up a garbage plate from Nick Tahou's and sit back for what's a great rivalry between these two programs.
There's a lot on the line in this game other than the trophy. Rochester (5-3, 3-3) is on the cusp of earning it's sixth win, a feat they haven't accomplished since the 2007 season. If Hobart (6-3, 4-2) wins the game, they have an outside chance at returning to the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. That will require some help however, as both Saint Lawrence (7-2, 5-1) and RPI (7-2, 5-1) would need to lose to Merchant Marine (3-5, 2-4) and Union (0-9, 0-6), respectively.
The Statesmen lead the all time series, which dates back to 1892, 52-48-7. So far Hobart is 6-1 overall in the Centennial Cup series, losing to the Yellow Jackets back in 2010 by a score of 35-34. Last season the Statesmen entered this contest ranked eighth in the nation but had to hang on after jumping out to a 21-0 lead, to win the game, 28-23.
This season Rochester enters this contest as (now) the top passing offense in the LL, averaging 239.8 YPG. The Yellow Jackets average 30.9 PPG and have rushed for an average of 167.5 YPG, which are good for second and third in the LL, respectively. Hobart by contrast is second in the LL allowing 17.4 PPG and leads the LL in both rushing and passing "D" allowing only 122.2 and 122.3 YPG, respectively.
Scouting Rochester
It's been a tale of two seasons for Rochester after the 2014 LL ROTY and now #2 SO QB Dan Bronson was injured. To his credit, #12 SR QB Justin Redfern has stepped in capably, passing for 1,132 yards and eight TDs compared to five INTs. Given it's the final game of the season, I could see either or both QBs play in this one.
#44 JR RB Shane Saucier has ran the ball more in recent weeks after Bronson (a solid runner who's tallied 334 rushing yards and three TDs) was limited. Saucier has carried the ball 70 times for 287 yards and four TDs. #26 JR RB Nick Perpignan has added 231 rush yards on 61 carries.
The Yellow Jackets have a solid receiving corps led by a trio of deep threats. #9 SR WR Farid Adenuga (520 receiving yards and five TDs), #3 JR WR Kyle Allegrini (326 yards and four TDs) and #1 SR WR Derek Wager (435 yards and one TD) are all solid players. #83 JR WR Luke Szumski isn't targeted very often (five catches) but his size (6'5" 205) and speed (72 yard TD run) make him a viable jump ball threat, and he's caught three TDs this season.
Defensively Rochester is led by #39 SR LB Thomas Marone who's ranked third in the LL with 71 total tackles. #34 SO LB Isaiah Smith can play the run or rush the passer, tallying 62 tackles and three sacks and seven TFL on the season.
On special teams, Rochester has the best kicker in the LL in #10 SR PK Andrew Haber who's gone five of six on FGs this season with a long of 38. The Yellow Jackets also lead the LL in kickoff return average. Rochester otherwise struggles in other parts of special teams play however, ranking fourth in punt returns (8.9), seventh in KO coverage (35.4), sixth in punting (31.5) and seventh in PATs (24 of 29) which could play a role in field position and the last stat could be key in a close game.
Keys to the Game
1. Defense
Last Saturday the shutout pitched by the Hobart defense in the second half went a big way in giving the Statesmen a chance to win the game late. Another part was holding the Saints to six of 17 on third downs overall and, more importantly, only allowing SLU into the red zone twice and allowing only one score in the first half.
2. Line of Scrimmage
The one knock on the Saints was the fact they didn't run the ball much or well in 2014. Hobart took the SLU run game off the table last Saturday, holding the Saints to 81 yards on 38 attempts (2.1 average). The Statesmen defense penetrated the SLU OL and racked up six sacks and eight TFL. Forcing Redfern and the Yellow Jackets offense to be one dimensional is a critical component of Saturday's game plan.
3. Finish
While 7-3 isn't the same as the undefeated seasons Hobart has enjoyed in recent years, it's a solid season when you consider the injuries and changes that the Statesmen had to overcome in 2015. While I understand the institutional stance on participation in ECACs (which for the first time this year will be held at a single site, just outside my hometown of Hartford, CT), if Hobart doesn't end up winning the LL, it's a shame this squad, especially the Class of 2016, won't get one more game. That said I hope the team rallies once again to finish the season strong against a determined rival. Rochester will come out "guns blazing" so the Statesmen need to take their best shot and not flinch. A steady combo of solid possessions and an early lead would go far in making it an uphill battle for the Yellow Jackets.
Final Thoughts
The Statesmen have had Rochester's number of late and the Yellow Jackets have struggled to win games in the final month of the season. They needed a miracle to defeat Union and held on for a one TD win against USMMA.
Given the way Hobart has fought in recent weeks makes me think the Statesmen can and will outlast Rochester with a strong defensive performance. I'll take Hobart to win this one and retain the Centennial Cup, 30-20.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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