Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Week 8 - Springfield Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will come out of their bye week looking to start a 4-0 run to capture the LL title and return to the NCAA playoffs. Standing in the Statesmen's way to start is a resurgent Springfield College team.

Hobart (5-1, 3-1) is 3-1 all time against the Pride, winning the first three games of Springfield's short stint in the LL. The Statesmen did drop last season's game in what was a shocking 35-13 upset at Amos Alonzo Stagg Field.

The Pride's 70 points scored last weekend against the Yellow Jackets broke their prior record of 66 scored against the USMMA, which they accomplished back in 2012. The 117 total points broke a LL record (104) that was previously held by the Statesmen and RPI, who battled to a 56-48 3OT Hobart win back in 2005 (a game I ranked #13 in my Best Games of the Last 20 Seasons posts from this summer).

Springfield (4-3, 3-1) is an established triple option team and has won four of their last five. Helping this turn around has a lot to do with the play of some new talent and the return of starter #2 JR QB Jake Eglintine who's back from injury. The Pride are second in the LL this season averaging 305 rushing YPG and they lead the LL with 24 rushing TDs scored. Defensively they are the third rated rushing defense, allowing only 132.1 rushing YPG but they've struggled against strong passing teams, allowing 187.9 YPG (ranked sixth) and a LL worst 16 passing TDs, which includes the five TDs, Rochester (1-5, 0-4) had last weekend.

The Pride will bring a host of rushers to Geneva this weekend, including Eglintine who's gained 195 yards in the last two games with one rushing and one passing TD. #23 JR FB Jordan Wilcox had a career game vs. the Yellow Jackets (174 rush yards and four TDs) and leads the Pride with 442 yards, which is tied for sixth in the LL. #90 SO FB Josh Thomas has also scored four rushing TDs but didn't play in the Rochester game, so we may instead see players like #31 SR HB Drew Brown, who also is back from injury. Brown had a 34 yard rushing TD Saturday. Finally, #19 FY HB Hunter Belzo is making a case for LL ROTY after back to back 100+ yard rushing games. Saturday he only touched the ball twice but broke off 69 and 91 yard TD runs. Although Springfield rarely passes, only attempting 43 (and only completing 13 or 30%) over seven games, when they have, #6 JR HB Tyler Hyde leads the team with five for 150 yards.

Defensively the Pride is led by a strong LB corps that includes #1 SR LB Kenny Calaj (49 tackles), #9 JR LB Dominic Traversa (49 tackles), and #43 JR LB Christian Ziotti (47 tackles and a sack). #94 SO DE Nick Giorgio is tied for the LL lead in TFL with 11.5 and has added three sacks to go with 46 total tackles. #22 SR FS and Co-Captain Nick Welsh led the Springfield secondary but didn't appear in the Rochester game. If he remains out, the Pride secondary is even more inexperienced, given losses from 2015 to graduation like CBs Anthony West and Joey Racioppi.

On special teams, #89 SO PK Blake Heller has not missed a PAT (25-25) but has had mixed results in the FG game, going three of six. The Pride's KO coverage is average (ranked sixth) but their punter #84 JR PK Walt DeVaux is ranked third in the LL, averaging 36.8 Net/P.

Keys to the Game:

1. Stick to the Script - Hobart will look to spread the field and look for matchups in the pass game Saturday as has been their approach all season. The Pride rush defense will be tough to run on, but Hobart will need to mix in some runs to keep them honest. Clearly the Rochester game tape shows that Springfield's pass (if not total) defense is somewhat suspect. Saint John Fisher defeated the Pride in Week 2 by jumping out to an early lead and completing a combination of short range to longer passes to put Springfield in a hole from which they were never able to get out. Three Cardinals WRs had catches of 17 yards or better, with one making catches of 47 and 54 yards including two TDs. JR WR Brandon Shed's hot start cooled off with only five catches for 42 yards against RPI (4-3, 2-2). I don't think the Pride has the personnel to cover him in this game, so we should see JR QB Shane Sweeney add to their TD and yardage totals.

2. Hold the Pride to < 240 Rushing Yards - The Statesmen rush defense will need to limit long break away and clock killing four to five yard runs Saturday. Playing their gap assignments and limiting gains after initial contact will be at a premium. The Pride are 0-3 when they are held to under 240 rushing yards. WNE (6-0) and SJF (6-1) held them to under 200 rushing yards. In the USMMA (4-2, 3-1) game, Hobart allowed 13 of 21 third down conversions and 397 rushing yards. That's a killer against a triple option team. Fortunately they shored that up against RPI limiting them to only two of 13 on third down and 83 rushing yards. The Statesmen can afford to stack the box with 8 or 9 defenders given Springfield's passing struggles. That'll require whomever is out in single man coverage doesn't make a mental or other error and allow a long gain via the air.

3. Eliminate Penalties (& Mental Mistakes) - The Statesmen need to play a more buttoned up style of football. Penalties that keep the Pride's offense on the field or hurt Hobart field position wise just can't keep happening in what is basically a playoff / elimination game between these two (second place) teams.

Prediction:

I predicted a 45-42 shootout win for Hobart on last Sunday's ITH show. You can listen in to that discussion here. Taking a closer look at the stats this week, plus the added motivation of rebounding after the RPI loss and to avenge last season's 35-13 defeat to the Pride, the Statesmen will come to play their best game of the season. I'll edit my prior prediction and say that Hobart will win the game, 41-21.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

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