Week 5 - #17 Ithaca Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen enter October and Liberty League conference play with a perfect 4-0 mark. The LL is having a banner year, with four undefeated teams at the top of the standings, three of them ranked in the D3football.com Top 25, with a combined 15-0 record. Even the Saint Lawrence Saints are off to a great start, going 3-1 in September.

One of those undefeated teams is #17 Ithaca College (3-0) who was off in Week 4 after shutting out Alfred (1-3), 34-0, in Week 3. The Bombers are one of just a few teams that (now #21) Hobart has all-time losing record against. The Statesmen needed 11 tries, dating back to 1961, to win their first ever game against their Finger Lakes neighbors (in the 1983 season). Hobart didn't beat the Bombers in the 70s or most of the rest of the 80s or the entire 90s either. It wasn't until the 2000 season that Hobart finally broke through, with the Statesmen winning that contest 19-0 and going on to take four of seven, including the dramatic 22-15 NCAA playoff win over Ithaca in 2014.

Hobart's last win over the Bombers was back in 2016 (also the most recent time the Statesmen went to the NCAA playoffs), a thorough 23-3 beating at Boswell Field. Unfortunately the Statesmen have gone on to lose three straight since Ithaca officially joined the LL. The most recent being the complete 34-0 falling apart by Hobart after the ejection of then JR OLB Emmett Forde in 2019. 

The Statesmen are 0-16 all-time at Ithaca. If they want to win the LL like Union did in 2019, they will have to do it like the Dutchmen, by beating the Bombers on their home field.

Scouting the Bombers

There's actually a lot of statistical similarities, at least defensively, between these two teams. The Bombers are ranked 1st in the LL with a 9.3 PPG allowed mark, while Hobart is narrowly behind them with a 9.5 PPG allowed average. The Statesmen are a slightly better rushing defense, allowing 66.3 YPG rushing and only 1 TD in 4 games, while Ithaca has allowed 73 YPG rushing and only 2 scores over three games.

Against the pass Hobart is the best in the LL only allowing 114.3 YPG and 4 TDs. The Bombers have allowed more yards - 193.3 YPG - but less TDs (2). The Ithaca passing game is currently the top ranked attack in the league with a 285 YPG average. They are rated 3rd and 4th, respectively, in total yards (855) and passing TDs (7). Hobart is the top scoring offense, averaging 44 PPG while the Bombers are third averaging 36.3 PPG.

Ithaca is led by JR QB A.J. Wingfield on offense. He has been very accurate, going 70-95 (73.68%) for 797 yards and 6 TDs. Wingfield has been mistake prone at times, however, throwing 4 INTs. Wingfield's OL has done a good job keeping him safe, allowing only 3 sacks this season. Wingfield leads the LL in passing with 265.7 YPG and is second in efficiency with a 156.6 rating. His 86-yd TD pass in Week 1 against Bridgewater State (2-2) is also a league best.

The Bombers have a good stable of RBs and SO RB Jalen Hines leads Ithaca with 35 carries for 196 yards and 3 TDs. SR RB Donte Garcia has 32 rushes for 108 yards. SO RB Jake Williams appears to be the short yardage back, rushing 16 times for 51 yards and 2 TDs.

Ithaca has two favorite targets in SR Michael Anderson and SR WR Andrew Vito. Anderson averages almost 25 YPR and leads the team with 268 yards and 4 TDs. Vito is more of the possession, move-the-chains guy, with a team high 22 catches. Vito has tallied 252 receiving yards and 2 scores on the year so far.  Vito had 8 catches for 106 yards and 1 TD against Hobart in 2019.

Defensively the Bombers are led by SR DB/SS Michael Roumes with 13 tackles and 2 INT. The Ithaca defense have matched Hobart's 8 defensive INT mark for best in the LL. Running the ball will require the Statesmen to execute well up front, the Bombers have 16 TFL this season and 7 sacks. They really push to get into the backfield and disrupt the offense. 5th YR SR DL Antonio Valle (who ironically happens to be from Orlando, FL), will be an important guy to block, as he leads Ithaca with 2 sacks and 1 FF.

On special teams, JR PK Enzo Martellucci is an average punter (less than 30 YPP average) and classmate JR PK Nick Bahamonde is one of the best kickers in the LL. He leads the league in KO yardage (nearly a 60 YPK average) and has converted 4-5 FGs with a long of 42 this season. 

Keys to the Game:

1. Run & Protect the Ball - The Statesmen have more than 3x the number of rushing TDs are the Bombers, running it in 19 times already this season. This mark is tied for first in the nation with W&L of the ODAC. Hobart averages over 250 YPG in rushing offense and the best way to break the Butterfield Curse is to move the chains and control the clock. The Statesmen OL has a slight size advantage over the Bombers DL (about 23 lbs. per player on average). It goes without saying winning the LOS will be imperative to set the tone and keep Hobart in control of the game. The Statesmen only gained 59 yards in the 2019 loss, averaging about 2.5 YPR. Ithaca has recovered five fumbles so far, so it's imperative the Statesmen don't let takeaways by the Bombers defense ruin their offensive possessions. The Bombers defense has enjoyed a relatively healthy 34-26 advantage in TOP, meaning they've gotten off the field and haven't had to play a 30 minute-plus game, yet.

2. Overcome Adversity - Let's face it, so far this season the Statesmen haven't really faced a major challenge. Should Ithaca's rushing defense be up to the task, how will the Statesmen handle it? The Bombers are holding opponents to a 20.45% (9-44) 3rd down conversion rate. JR QB David Krewson is ranked in the 5th-7th spots for most QB metrics in the LL. He may need to "level up" and make plays, either with his arm or feet, in these potential 3rd down situations. If the inexperienced WR unit can't be relied on to extend possessions, then perhaps going to TE unit of JR TE Mike Zaccone and FY TE Luke Hescock is the answer? Certainly SO RBs Rayshawn Boswell and Tim Denham, Jr are trusty check downs as well. Hobart doesn't need to connect on long "bombs" against Ithaca (pun intended), just keep moving the chains. Conversely, Ithaca has been successful in taking the top off of opposing defenses, scoring on long pass TDs against BSU (86 yds) and Brockport (71 yds). Hobart's secondary is experienced, but they need to avoid getting beat deep (and you can expect Ithaca will take some shots). I do think SR DB Jared Leake and/or SR FS Cal Sullivan should have at least a couple of chances to pick off Wingfield and flip the field on the Bombers. 

3. Forget the Past / Block Out the Present - You see it all the time. I saw it in the body language of the #7 Hardin-Simmons defense last Saturday night. Once #2 UMHB started their comeback in the 3rd qtr., you could see the whole "here we go again" nature of teams that just don't really believe they can break certain losing streaks. From my purview, HSU gave up rather than believe they could pull off the upset they had put into motion with a dominating 28-7 halftime lead. I will say this, HSU SR QB Kyle Jones never quit, but I can't say the same about some of his teammates. You could see it on the film and Hobart will need to avoid this mindset should calls or other things not go their way on Saturday. The structure of Butterfield doesn't help the visitors either, and back in 2019, many may recall how an Ithaca parent hurled obscenities at the Statesmen players on the bench and the officials didn't call a clear Ithaca fumble recovered by the Statesmen on the Hobart sideline to make matters worse. Needless to say, it'll be a difficult environment, so the Statesmen need to be extra focused and block out the "noise" that is likely inevitable in Ithaca on Saturday.

Prediction: 

Is this finally the game Hobart will get over the hump? 

The relative strength of both teams is hard to gauge given each had nearly identical results against a common opponent in Alfred (Hobart won 35-3, Ithaca won 34-0). The Statesmen's opponents are 4-12 overall and Ithaca's are 5-6, mostly due to BSU edging some average New England teams of late.

With the potential returns of SR OLB Emmett Forde and JR LB Bryan Aguilar, the Statesmen should be at full strength defensively to start the game. The offense will need to grind it out and avoid turning the ball over to avoid digging themselves into an early hole.

I'll be honest, I originally was going to pick Ithaca over the weekend, maybe to light a fire or simply because I've simply been wrong in the past so many times now (e.g., I picked Hobart to win in 2017 and 2018, eventually doing a "non-pick" in 2019. The last time I picked right? 2016). 

While the statistics here point to a slight Hobart advantage, I think it will come down to whether not the Statesmen's RBs can gain yards on first down and Krewson making a handful of drive sustaining key plays and run the offense how it's set up. Defensively we need to force Wingfield into throwing an INT or two and not getting beat on the deep ball, if we can avoid it.

I think (hope?) the Statesmen can escape Butterfield with their first ever victory. It's been long enough and it's time. A ground and pound offensive and defensive effort will finally get it done. I'll take Hobart 31-24. 

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!