After what's been an up and down couple of years, we've finally reached the end of the 2021 regular season. This team has had some great moments and close calls. They've overcome adversity and injuries to have an excellent opportunity to post a second consecutive 8-win regular season.
While on one hand I feel like the Statesmen could be 9-0 going into this week, they very easily could have been 5-4. The Liberty League had one of it's most competitive seasons in decades, and unfortunately based on a (poor, in my opinion) decision to "keep" the home and away cadence as if 2020 happened by the conference, this young Hobart team lost out on what would have been critical home field advantages this season. I guess the good news is in 2022 we know we get Ithaca and Union at home and, in theory, parents will be allowed back in the stands at RPI once their beleaguered (and clueless) president, Dr. Shirley Jackson, is finally gone.
To be fair, an 8-2 regular season by one of the youngest rosters in the LL and Hobart College history isn't anything to feel disappointed about. I also feel highly confident that the Statesmen (7-2, 3-2) will be selected on Monday to host an ECAC Bowl Game (I'll predict against whom at the end of this post).
The William Smith Soccer team - who won the LL title over Ithaca over an amazing OT goal - is hosting the first round of the NCAA Women's Soccer tournament at Cozzens Field, so there is no conflict with having a football game at the Boz. While a berth to the NCAAs was the original goal, this additional, potential home (and trophy) game against a strong opponent is a really nice consolation for the team.
Scouting the Yellow Jackets
Former Statesmen QB and now UofR HC Chad Martinovich '94 has done a fantastic job rebuilding the Rochester program. This is a case where the extra year of recruiting and practice actually helped the Jackets (3-6, 1-4) get stronger and add depth; the latter they really lacked in 2019, having one of the smallest rosters in the LL, if not the East Region.
While I'm sure UofR would have liked to earn a few more wins, their early season contests were very close. It seems like they may be running out of gas going into the final weekend, however, having lost their Week 8 & 9 games to Union and SLU by a combined 50 points. They struggled to separate from Hartwick as well, but to their credit, ultimately got the win.
The Yellow Jackets have used a few different QBs, but it looks like Hobart will likely see FY QB Ryan Rose this Saturday in Rochester. Last weekend he went 12-26 for 171 yards passing in a 42-28 win over Hartwick (1-7, 0-5).
FY/SO RB Daniel Papantonis led the ground attack with 20 carries for 93 yards and 2 rushing TDs (he has also caught 2 passes for TDs this season). He has run for 637 yards, a team high. He is paced by FY/SO RB Will Varney, who has less carries (90 vs. 139) and yards (394), but leads the team with 9 rush TDs.
Rochester seems to like to spread the ball around in the passing game, with 5 different receivers with double-digit catches. The team is led by JR/SR Noah Shinaman with 21 receptions for 288 yards and 1 TD.
Defensively, UofR is led by JR/SR LB Caden Cole with 70 total tackles, including 7 TFL, 2.5 sacks and 2 FF. The Rochester defense has been giving up almost 28 PPG and I expect Hobart to pass that number mid-3rd quarter.
FY DB Jack Yensel earned D3football.com TOTW honors for his strong game against Hartwick. The Yellow Jackets defense forced 6 Hawks' turnovers, including Yensel's 39-yard "pick six" which helped UofR gain a 28-21 lead in the 3rd quarter.
Special teams wise it looks like UofR has a pretty good punter in FY PK Alex Wing. He also earned TOTW recognition based on his 42.3 YPP average against Hartwick in Week 10. He was especially good at pinning the Hawks deep, getting 4 of his kicks downed inside the 20-yard line, a career high. Otherwise Wing has averaged nearly 40 YPKO. The Yellow Jackets need to find a better FG PK however, as they've only converted 1-5 FG attempts. They are good from close range though, converting 21-22 PATs.
Keys to the Game
1. Fluster the FY QB - Rose has only appeared in 4 games and attempted 69 passes in his young career. A steady attack by the Statesmen defense should cause him problems and potentially lead to turnovers. The FY QB has only thrown 2 INTs so far this season, but I expect that number will go up Saturday.
2. Air it Out - While I do expect the Statesmen to test UofR's rushing defense (ranked 6th in the LL, allowing over 165 YPG on the ground and 11 rushing TDs), I really see this game as a chance to work on the passing game, as Rochester has the worst passing defense in the LL. The Yellow Jackets allow over 235 YPG passing and have surrendered 21 receiving TDs.
3. Keep the Cup - While this "Centennial Cup" rivalry (which dates back to 1892) has been pretty one-sided with Hobart winning the last 9 in a row, including 2019's 51-20 victory, this is still a trophy game and should matter to the team. While the Statesmen may look back on a couple of games this season as "what if's", a dominating finish to 2021 is the right way to wrap up the year.
Prediction:
I like Hobart to start strong and cruise to a 42-14 win.
From there, the Statesmen will have to wait until Monday around 12 PM ET to see if they are selected to an ECAC Bowl Game. I think based on Hobart's strong resume (note I predicted they could appear in tomorrow's NCAA Regional Rankings - this link will be updated around 3 PM ET, Wednesday, give or take), they will get a bid.
I'll also predict that the Statesmen will host either a nearby E8 team like Utica (who should finish 6-4) or potentially Grove City (who should finish 7-3) from the PAC. While it's possible they could end up on the road at W&J or Westminster (who will both likely finish 8-2), I think the ECAC committee will send a NY (like Brockport, who Hobart scrimmaged in the preseason) or other team to PA for the Presidents and/or Titans to play. Ultimately, assuming they all finish 8-2, Hobart, Westminster and W&J will have the best overall resumes of the teams who've submitted bids, with the Statesmen grading higher than both PAC runners-up (and CMU could still lose to Case which would send Westminster to the NCAAs and CMU would end the year 7-3).
Regardless, a win in Week 11 will help these teams avoid being road teams in Week 12, so getting that 8th win is critical, in my opinion. (Update - RPI just joined the fray, making it four potential 8-2 teams in the ECAC pool).
For now, all Hobart can do is win Saturday and wait a couple more days to see if we get "bonus football". A bid would be a relatively new experience for Hobart. The last time the Statesmen appeared in an ECAC game (back then referred to as the "North Atlantic Bowl") dates all the way back to the 2003 season, a 34-18 win over Norwich.
Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!
PS - don't forget to tune into "In the D3FB Huddle" Monday for our 2021 ECAC Bowl Selection Special!
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