Raise the orange and purple high!
After a long offseason, the 128th season of Hobart College Football is finally upon us. The #23 Statesmen will host out of conference and relatively local rival, the Alfred University Saxons, on Friday night at the "Boz". According to the record books, Hobart is 40-35-4 all time against the Saxons, so this should be the 80th meeting of the two programs. The Statesmen have moved to the plus side of that equation over the past several decades, winning 11 straight over the Saxons dating all the way back to the 1996 season.
Last season, Hobart won big, 35-3 over Alfred on the road, thanks to five rushing TDs. The Statesmen offense racked up 386 total yards and called 45 running plays (58 total) in the rout. The defense was no slouch either, holding the Saxons to only three points and collecting four INTs.
Scouting the Saxons
Last season was considered a bit of a down year for Alfred, who finished 5-5 overall and tied for second place in the Empire 8 with a 4-2 conference record (but they did lose head-to-head Brockport, who also finished 4-2 in the E8, by a lopsided score of 38-0 in Week 11).
The Saxons are led on offense by team captains SR WR Jake Kelsey and 5th year SR OL Bobby Felder, Jr. Kelsey hauled in 15 catches for 181 yards and 1 TD in 2021. Felder, who stands 6' 1" and weighs in at 315 lbs. is a strong blocker who was named the Saxons Offensive MVP in 2021.
Based on the 2022 roster, it would appear that Kelsey, Felder and the Alfred offense will be looking for SO QB Zuke Smith to take a step up after a 2021 season that saw him go 69-180 passing for 782 yards with 4 passing TDs.
Smith came into the 2021 Hobart-Alfred game in the second half and completed four passes for 51 yards and 1 INT. For the Saxons to improve, Smith and the offense will have to drastically cut back on turnovers. Smith was picked off 8 times in 2021 and Alfred was -18 overall in TOM last year.
At the RB position, it appears as though leading rusher SO RB Max Freeman IV is back after a solid rookie year. Freeman rushed for nearly 500 yards and three TDs in 2021.
On defense the Saxons are led by team captains JR LB Joe Copp and 5-year SR DL Tim Dahl. These two combined for 10 total tackles against Hobart last season. Copp was named the Alfred defensive MVP by his coaches and teammates. If you believe the Saxons roster data, it appears as though six of their top 10 tacklers are back in 2022.
On special teams, Alfred needs to replace their FG PK, and they appear to have brought in a couple of FY PKs to compete for that role. Punting duties were handled last season by now JR LB Zach Johnson and SR WR Neil Peters, with Peters having the better statistics as far as net average and other metrics.
Keys to the Game:
1. Expect the Unexpected - Although a good percentage of returning players from both teams are back and 2021 data is helpful, we really don't or won't know anything about the 2022 versions of Hobart and Alfred until we see them back on the field. While it is possible the Statesmen offense goes with a 77-23 run-to-pass ratio like they did in last year's game on Friday night, we could also see the Hobart mix things up, try some new formations and players. On the flip side, defensively the Statesmen will have seven new starters, but most of the players we already know from getting lots of reps in 2021 (a hallmark of the Hobart philosophy of getting young players experience, especially for games like this one).
2. Let's go 12-0 - Look for the Statesmen to extend their home regular season and series winning streak over Alfred to 12-0 Friday night. This is the only game under the lights this season scheduled for Hobart (assuming no changes down the road), so the team really needs to take advantage of this wonderful opportunity.
3. Embrace the Inner (Under) Dog Mentality - The 2022 preseason Liberty League poll came out yesterday and had Hobart slated 3rd, which isn't a surprise, but should be a motivating factor this season. Alfred is also viewed as an underdog in their conference race and will likely come into this game with a similar chip on their shoulder as well. A fast and strong start for Hobart, like last year's opener, will go a long way to get the Statesmen to 1-0.
Prediction:
I think Hobart's experienced OL will once again dictate the game and while the defense will likely give up more than 3 points, I view Friday's season opener as a Statesmen win. I'll take Hobart to win it, 31-10.
Stay tuned for more In the D3FB Huddle coverage Friday before the big game. Frank and I will be covering a lot of the big Week 1 matchups, including Alfred vs. Hobart, via our @D3FBHuddle handle.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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