Brace yourselves, Statesmen fans.
Here come the #13 nationally ranked and undefeated Ithaca College Bombers. Ithaca (3-0) conveniently (for them) is coming off a bye week and heads into Hobart's homecoming game (which should be at night, under the lights, btw) a heavy favorite in this Liberty League conference opener. The Bombers were picked to win the LL this year (with Hobart in third, based on the preseason coaches' poll). After Union and RPI's surprising losses last weekend, this game is arguably a league championship and playoff elimination one.
Hobart (3-1), which once again plays the role of the underdog, has lost four in a row against the Bombers, dating back to when Ithaca joined the LL (so yes, Hobart is 0-4 in LL play against IC). The Statesmen's last win dates back to 2016 (which also was a homecoming, ahem, night game), their biggest in the series, a 23-3 beatdown. Hobart is 5-29 all time against Ithaca, dating back to 1961, and all five of those wins have come at Boswell Field. The Bombers were the last visiting team to beat Hobart at home, 10-3, back in Week 10 of the 2018 season. The Statesmen have gone 13-0 at "the Boz" since then and hope to be 14-0 after this weekend.
Hobart led Ithaca 21-14 with 5:09 to go in the 3rd quarter of last season's game, but now SR QB A.J. Wingfield engineered two quick scoring drives to tie and then win it on a 30-yard TD pass with 8:54 to go in the 4th quarter. The Statesmen had a chance to force overtime and/or go for the win from the Ithaca 16-yard line, but literally dropped the ball on the final play and lost, 28-21.
Scouting the Bombers
Ithaca comes into this matchup after crushing three team in Weeks 1-3, including Alfred University (1-3), being the one common opponent shared with Hobart. The Bombers won that game, 52-3, compared to Hobart's Week 1 win over the Saxons by a 36-6 margin. Ithaca averages over 42 PPG on offense and have held opponents to only 5.67 PPG on defense (less than a TD). To be fair, Hobart's numbers stack up pretty well after last Saturday's blowout of Keystone (0-4), moving our offensive and defensive PPG stats to 32.75 and 9, respectively.
Regardless of the stats, the biggest advantage Ithaca has over Hobart is depth and experience. Starting with the Bombers OL - all five are fourth- or fifth-year seniors and returning starters from 2021. Actually, it looks like at LG JR OL Alexander Rice got the start over SR OL Andrew Testani against Alfred, but regardless; this unit is very big (everyone is listed at 6' 2"+ and close to 300 lbs.) and have worked together well over a season plus.
Wingfield is the best QB in the LL, and ranks first in efficiency (154.8), passing TDs (5 - which is interesting because Statesmen SR QB David Krewson technically has six) and completion percentage, going 46-68 for 509 yards (67.6%). Unlike all the other starting LL QBs, Wingfield has yet to throw an INT.
As the saying goes, a QBs best friend (other than a great OL) is a strong running game. The Bombers have two solid backs at their disposal - JR RBs Jake Williams and Ryan Brozovic. This duo has combined for 257 rushing yards and 5 TDs so far this season.
Wingfield's favorite targets has been a pair of SR WRs - Michael Anderson and Julien Deumaga. They've made 29 catches for a combined 381 yards and 3 receiving TDs. Wingfield likes to spread it around, however, as 3 other WRs have caught a TD each.
Defensively the Bombers are led by 5th-year SR LB Matt DeSimpliciis who's tallied 23 total tackles, 2 sacks and 3 TFL. He also has one FR. Overall the Bombers are +3 in turnover margin, collecting 3 INTs to go with the FR. They've only turned the ball over once so far this season. Much like the offensive side of the ball, Ithaca's defense is very experienced and deep with upperclassmen.
On special teams, the Bombers have arguably the best PK in the nation as SR PK Nick Bahamonde was named 1st team preseason All-American by D3football.com. That said, Bahamonde's season has gotten off to a rough start, as he's missed more FG attempts than he's converted (2-5). He handles Ithaca's KO duties also, averaging close to 58 YPKO.
The punting unit is headed up by 5th year SR SS Michael Roumes who averages about 37 YPP and has forced 5 FC balls on 11 kicks, including 2 that have landed inside his opponent's 20-yard line and one 50+ yard kick.
Keys to the Game:
1. Start Strong, Move the Chains: The Bombers have outscored their opponents 85-10 in the first half so far this season. Hobart needs to get on the board and do their best defensively to keep Ithaca out of the end zone, where they have scored 13 times on 15 trips (an 86.67% success rate). Running the ball will be a challenge as the Bombers have an outstanding run defense (albeit against average to mediocre opposition), allowing a paltry 2.1 YPR and only 66.3 rush YPG average. That said, Hobart should grind away in the running game to burn the clock and keep Wingfield on the sideline. I expect Ithaca to "stack the box" so play action is a good strategy in my opinion. Third down conversions will be at a premium as Ithaca has only allowed 10 first downs on 45 attempts (22.22%) this season. The Bombers have allowed just under 5 YPC passing, so short, precise patterns can work against this defense. I know HC Kevin DeWall '00 likes to go deep from time to time, but against a defense that's racked up 6 sacks and 19.5 TFL, spending too much time in the pocket to let a longer play develop could be troublesome.
2. Bend, Don't Break: The Hobart defense will need to lock in a stop an offense that has looked superhuman so far this season. Ithaca will look to put the Statesmen in a hole early and try and make them play from behind. It's crucial that assignments are kept and more importantly, penalties are negated as you can't give up any easy yards to a team this talented and expect to win. If the Statesmen can hold this dynamic offense to FGs instead of TDs, that'll go a long way in keeping this game competitive. Pressuring Wingfield will be paramount as well, but the Bombers OL has only given up one sack this season.
3. Home Sweet Home: The Statesmen haven't lost at Boswell Field in over two seasons, and there should be a big crowd there Saturday cheering on the Statesmen. As much as Butterfield stadium has been a "house of (0-17) horrors" for Hobart, the Statesmen (and their fans) need to make the Boz environment similar Saturday. Ithaca will come into this game well rested and extremely confident, so Hobart will have to take their first couple of punches and hold firm, while delivering a few of their own.
Prediction:
I have struggled with this one and would feel better about Hobart's chances if not for what happened in Week 2. The end of the day is the Statesmen are a younger, less experienced and to a certain extent, physically smaller version of what Ithaca is today. The Bombers should probably win this game by 14+ points based "on paper", but I have a feeling our defense - who is loaded with young and hungry talent, especially at LB - will keep it from getting out of hand.
My heart tells me otherwise, but my head is telling me I have to go with Ithaca getting the win, but in a lower scoring, 17-13, type of game.
I've enjoyed it in the past when Hobart has proved me wrong. Let's hope this is one of those times.
I'll be hoping for the best and thinking go 'Bart!
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