The Hobart College Statesmen will wrap up the 2022 regular season against their oldest rival, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets, Saturday at the Boz. Kickoff is slated for 1 PM. The Jackets (3-6, 1-4) are still in rebuilding mode under Hobart alum and HC Chad Martinovich '94 but are taking strides towards becoming a much more competitive program.
The Statesmen (6-3, 3-2) have won the last ten meetings and lead the overall series 58-48-7. Based on that number, this will be the 114th installment of this rivalry game. Hobart defeated the Jackets by a convincing 31-0 margin last season.
This game will be for the Centennial Cup trophy (which you can see a picture of in the link above), which originated back in 2007 to mark the 100th meeting between these two programs. As I stated in a prior post, I'll be in Geneva for this one (after we attend the fall admissions open house), so I'm hoping the nice weather holds up (but not counting on it).
Scouting the Yellow Jackets
You can tell Rochester is building themselves back up again by just looking at the numbers. Offensively, Rochester has averaged 313.2 YPG, not far off from Hobart's 323 YPG. Defensively the Statesmen (6-3, 3-2) have been stronger, holding teams to 266.1 YPG compared to the Jackets 357.1 YPG allowed (nearly a 100 YPG difference).
The other big difference is in PPG scored (29.8) and allowed (13.4) by Hobart compared to Rochester's (15.9 and 27.9). Where the Jackets have excelled is in the run game, averaging 215 YPG, which is the second best in the league. They are dead last in passing, however, averaging a paltry 98.2 YPG with a 47% completion rate.
Speaking of the run game, Rochester boasts the top and third ranked RBs in the league (based on RYPG average). JR RB Daniel Papantonis turned national heads when he opened the season with an 18 rush, 309 yards and 4 TD game against Utica. He followed that up with a 30 rush, 278 yards and 3 TD game against Alfred State in Week 2. He has nearly 1,200 rushing yards on the season but has only scored 2 TDs since his big debut.
Classmate JR RB Will Varney has picked up some of the slack in recent weeks, rushing for over 100 yards in the last three games and scoring 2 rushing TDs over the same period. He has gained 648 rushing yards on 120 carries this season.
Handing the ball off to Papantonis and Varney is SO QB Ryan Rose. He's dropped back 180 times this season and completed 85 passes, including 6 TDs. Part of Rochester's struggles have been because he's turned the ball over, throwing 11 INTs (more than 1 per game on average).
Rose's favorite target has been JR WR Trey Johnson, who leads the team with 33 catches for 346 yards and 3 TDs. Johnson has also returned kicks and punts for the Jackets.
Defensively, SR LB Caden Cole leads the team with 84 tackles. which ranks first in the LL. He has added 4 TFL and a sack along the way.
On special teams, Rochester boasts three different specialists. SO PK Alex Wing handles punting duties, averaging 38.31 YPP. Kickoffs have and FGs have been handled by SO PK Jordan Laudani. He's averaging 55.5 YPKO and has gone 8-12 on FGs this season. SR PK Shane Bombace has 20 KOs on the season, but he didn't appear in last weekend's 19-13 win over Hartwick.
Keys to the Game:
1. Stop the Run - It's not rocket science based on the numbers. The Yellow Jackets are a pretty one-dimensional team on offense. If the Hobart defense can disrupt their run game and force Rose to try and beat them with his arm, you can expect some short fields for the Statesmen offense and maybe even another defensive score (or two) Saturday. Defensively, Rochester has given up a lot of points and yards to teams with winning records and I expect the same to happen Saturday.
2. Enjoy the Moment - Saturday will be Senior Day for the 4th YR SRs who plan to move on and graduate and the 5th YRs who came back for one more year. It's always a bittersweet occasion and should be celebrated accordingly. Today Hobart filed for an ECAC Bowl Game bid, so there may be one more after this one, if the Statesmen can
3. Just Win - A potentially successful bid will be contingent on the Statesmen ending up 7-3, which will put them in good company amongst ECAC Bowl eligible teams. While there were 20 on the list, based on current NCAA Pool A and other conference bowl games (e.g., MAC-Centennial, New England, etc.) scenarios, at 7-3, Hobart would only be behind Utica and W&J as far as overall records go. They are certainly not a lock, however, as my projections have at least four other eligible teams (Morrisville, Brockport, Westminster and GCC) also ending up 7-3 overall. RPI could be the 5th if they can beat Union Saturday in the annual Dutchmen's Shoes trophy game.
Prediction:
I'll make two. The Statesmen will win 31-14 on what looks like a potentially cold and maybe even wet Week 11 gameday. Monday at noon, Frank and I will call Hobart's name as an ECAC Bowl game participant, likely on the road to either a PAC or E8 opponent's field for Saturday, Nov. 19.
The first one's got to come true for the second one to have a shot. Here's hoping.
Go 'Bart!
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