The Hobart College Statesmen will host their first ECAC Bowl game at the "Boz" in 20 years, with a big Liberty League vs. Empire 8 matchup against the Utica University Pioneers. The "Moose will be loose" in Geneva for the first time in a decade, as the last time Hobart played Utica was back in the 2012 and 2013 seasons. Hobart won both games, 45-26 at Utica and 34-21 at home.
Both teams enter the contest with identical 8-2, 4-2 marks and neither has a loss to an OOC opponent. I predicted this matchup last week and felt it made sense as both teams finished in third place in their respective conferences.
This season the common opponents between the two squads were Rochester, Alfred and Morrisville. Utica played Rochester in Week 1 and came away with a hard-fought, 20-17 victory. Hobart's game against the Yellow Jackets was just last weekend, a 27-23 nailbiter, so it shows these teams are pretty close in some respects. The Statesmen beat Alfred 31-9 in Week 1 while the Pioneers shut them out 28-0 in Week 8. Hobart defeated Morrisville in Week 2, 27-10, while Utica defeated the Mustangs, 24-6, in Week 7.
Another ironic similarity is both teams are much better at home than on the road. This season Hobart went 6-0 in Geneva and Utica was 5-0 on their home field. The Statesmen went 2-2 on the road and the Pioneers were 3-2. In both cases, their most difficult conference games were on the road, so that factored into those records in a big way.
Although Utica finished the season with a barely better SOS, I am guessing Hobart got selected to host given how much more competitive the Statesmen were in their LL conference losses (10-and-17-points) compared to the Pioneers E8 conference losses (53-and-35-points). The Statesmen are 2-1 all-time in ECAC Bowl games while Utica is 1-3. Their lone win was a thrilling 44-42 pick six, walk off against Ithaca back in the 2018 Scotty Whitelaw Bowl.
Scouting the Pioneers
This season the Utica offense has averaged 24.4 PPG and defensively has allowed an average of 18.6 PPG. Leading the Pioneers offense is SO QB Brett Fuller. He's gone 169-259 (65.25%) for 1,642 yards with 10 passing TDs compared to eight INTs. More of a pocket passer, Fuller only runs if he absolutely has to escape the pass rush. He has one rushing TD and only averages about four rushes a game.
The run game is led by a trio of backs. SR SB Matt Brantley leads the team with 551 rushing yards and has scored two TDs. JR RB James Salles is a smaller, shifty guy who's added 315 yards and two scores. SR QB Sam Florio has only attempted three passes this season but leads the team with eight rushing TDs. This basically points to him being a goal-line specialist, which makes sense given his size (6'1" 230 lbs.), he's more of a FB than QB.
Utica is a very opportunistic team in the passing game, as 10 different receivers have caught at least one TD pass. Seven of them have over 100 receiving yards this season. Leading the team is SR WR Peyton Ausfeld with 40 catches for 405 yards and two TDs. SO WR Antonio Cianfarani and GR WR Travis Decker (a big target at 6' 3" and 190 lbs.) are tied for the team lead with three TD receptions each.
Leading the Utica defense is the outstanding GR LB Anthony Fasano. He is having a career best year with 74 total tackles, including 16.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks and two FF/FRs. The Hobart OL will need to account for the whereabouts of SR LB Doug Simmons who leads the Pioneers with eight sacks to go with 43 tackles, 12 TFL and an INT. GR DL John Straughn has added 56 tackles to go with 14 TFL and seven sacks.
The Pioneers have two specialists, big JR PK Freddie Callo who's averaged over 38 yards as a punter. GR PK Cory Lichtman handles FGs and KOs. He has gone 9-17 on FGs with a long of 42 yards and averaged almost 60 YPKO. GR WR Joey Nare has averaged just over 8 yards on PRs while a number of Utica players have moonlighted on the KOR team. Ausfeld has returned eight KOs for an average of 26 yards and a season long return of 49.
Keys to the Game:
1. Start Hot but Stay Cool - The Statesmen were a bit sluggish, whether due to injuries or something else, last weekend at Rochester. While they were the beneficiary of some great plays and lucky breaks, to have a 14-13 lead at the half, only 68-yards of offense was a red flag. Given the proximity of the two schools and lots of overlap between the player's hometowns, etc. this will have a feel of a rivalry game, especially with a trophy on the line for the postgame. I won't be surprised if it's chippy early on with a lot of trash talking. The Statesmen will need to keep their composure and just do what's gotten them to this point on the season. Let their play do the talking.
2. Home Sweet Home - Under HC Kevin DeWall '00 Hobart has been a decent road team, winning 14 of 26 games, a lot of which were in pretty hostile territories, including Cortland for the 2019 NY State Bowl and the Bushnell Bowl at Westminster in 2021. What's really impressive however is the Statesmen's 24-2 home record over that same time period. I know out in Minnesota SJU calls it "Johnnie Magic" for their home field advantage. Hobart should lean into their "Statesmen Success" or whatever better nickname you can come up with for this Saturday's game.
3. Execute and Win - I expect a strong running attack with a few JR QB Johnny Columbi scrambles to keep the defense honest. The Pioneers give up almost 170 YPG passing and have allowed at least one pass TD a game this season. I would love to see a few deep shots to JR WR Rane Daramola to test the back half of the Utica secondary, but know our bread and butter is winning the LOS and running the football. You can expect some man-to-man and 1:1 matchups between the Hobart WRs and Utica DBs as the Pioneers will stack the box with guys like Fasano and others looking to bottle up the run and force Hobart into third and longs.
Prediction:
This one should be a close game, but a winnable one for Hobart. We beat Rochester by 4, they won by 3. They beat Alfred by 28, we won by 22. We beat Morrisville by 17, they won by 18. Logan Hansen's "ratings" site has the Statesmen as 77% favorites to win this bowl game by a 26-14 margin.
I think this game could be closer, especially given how Hobart looked last weekend. I'll still take the home team to finish the season 7-0 on the Boz and win the Clayton Chapman Bowl trophy, by a 27-21 margin.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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