The Hobart Statesmen (5-3, 4-2) travel to Fauver Stadium this Saturday to face their oldest rival, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (4-5, 4-2). The Statesmen and Jackets face off for the 103rd time. The all-time series is deadlocked 47-47-7 between the two schools. Last season Hobart retained the Centennial Cup for the second straight season in a hard fought and muddy 10-7 victory in Geneva.
Hobart currently enjoys a five game winning streak over Rochester; the Yellow Jackets last win in the series was a 17-13 triumph back in 2003. After entering the season with the 4th most difficult schedule in DIII football, Rochester struggled to a 1-4 start. Still, aside from a lopsided loss to #9 Case Western Reserve, it should be noted that the Yellow Jackets lost games by only two, seven and three points to St. John Fisher (5-3, 3-1 and in contention for the E8 championship), Union (7-2, 6-0 and in contention for the LL championship) and Susquehanna (7-2, 5-1 also contending for the LL title); respectively. Both the Fisher (:47) and Union (:10) losses literally came with under a minute to play in each game.
Since then, Rochester has won three out of its last four games, the most recent being a 20-7 victory over Saint Lawrence (2-7, 1-5). The Yellow Jackets boast the #1 passing attack in the LL behind SO QB Braezen Subick. The SO has thrown for 1,446 yards (132-221 with 10 interceptions and 12 touchdowns) and is ranked second in the LL in pass efficiency with a 123.6 rating.
Rochester also has the #2 rusher in the LL with JR RB Clarence Onyiriuka averaging 128.1 YPG. The JR has racked up 1,153 total rushing yards on the season and only trails leading rusher SR RB Dave Paveletz from Susquehanna by only 78 yards going into the final regular season game. Onyiriuka is also a receiving threat having caught 26 balls for 248 yards and four touchdowns. This versatility has helped Onyiriuka lead the LL in all purpose yards (1401 total yards or 155.7 YPG).
Subick’s favorite target is the SR WR Mike Coolbaugh who leads the LL in receptions per game (4.89) and is fourth in total receiving yards with 513 including two touchdown catches. Another key receiver in the Rochester passing game is SR TE Pedro Sosa. He is second the team with 36 receptions for 322 yards.
In spite of all of this offense, the Jackets also bring the #1 rushing defense (120.9 yards allowed per game) and have earned an impressive +8 turnover ratio which is good for second in the LL. The Rochester defense is lead by FY LB Brendan Pidgeon (51.5 total tackles, including three TFLs, three forced fumbles and one interception) and JR LB Ed Dauphin (45.5 total tackles, including 5.5 TFL, three interceptions and seven forced fumbles).
Rochester would like nothing more than to end the season at .500 overall, as well as 5-2 in the LL; which pending the outcome of the Union-Susquehanna championship game, would be good enough to tie for second place.
Keys to the game:
1. Contain Onyiriuka – The JR RB is virtually Rochester’s entire rushing game given his average YPG is only one yard less than the Yellow Jacket’s season average (129.1). Although Rochester has a potent passing offense, the Hobart defense has improved to second in the LL allowing only 149.8 YPG and has as many interceptions as touchdowns allowed (seven).
2. Pressure Subick – The SO QB has a strong arm but is prone to make mistakes having thrown 10 interceptions over nine games played.
3. Back to basics – Hobart’s three game winning streak has been due to great defense (two shut outs) but also by the offense’s success in running the ball and controlling the clock. The Statesmen have gained 156 (RPI), 209 (WPI) and 149 (MMA) yards rushing over this time period and averaged approximately 31 minutes in TOP during these games. The key to defeating the Yellow Jackets means more of JR RB Andrew Marlier and less passing. That said Rochester is last in the LL in pass defense, allowing 216.7 YPG on average, but I think most Statesmen fans would like to see more ball control and straight ahead running plays vs. shot-gun formations and trips to the right.
4. Be special – Although often over-looked, the Hobart special teams unit leads the LL in kick-off returns (23.6 YPR), punting (33.8 YPP) and punt coverage (only five returns of only 10 yards total all season). Rochester is first in the LL in kick-off coverage, so it will be interesting to see how Hobart fares in the very important field position battle.
All considered I think each team may struggle to move the ball and it will once again be a close call for the Statesmen, but I expect Hobart to end the year on a positive note and pick the Statesmen to prevail 14–10 and hang onto the Centennial Cup.
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