The Hobart Statesmen (4-3, 3-2) host the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Engineers (4-3, 2-3) in the “final regular season” game at the “original” Boswell Field. With preparations underway to upgrade the “Boz” to field turf, as well as new stands, lights and additions to the Bristol Field House in time for the 2010 season; Hobart will clash with RPI on the gridiron (aka quagmire) that is the Boz one last time. The Engineers will be looking to return the favor of the Statesmen’s playing spoiler to their final regular season game on ’86 Field last season. The Statesmen prevailed 20-17 kicking a 37 yard field goal as time expired knocking off a then #20 RPI.
A highlight clip of that game can be found here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf6LUe-zgl4
Kick-off for this season’s match-up is slated for noon ET and conditions look pretty good for an early November football game in Upstate New York (i.e., 40s and cloudy).
Rensselaer leads the series 26-25-1 all-time, but the Statesmen have won four of the last five games against the Engineers. Although Hobart has had some recent success against RPI, all of these games have all been battles.
Check out these scores from the past four seasons:
2008 Hobart 20 – RPI 17 (Statesmen kick the winning FG as time expired)
2007 RPI 35 – Hobart 31 (Engineers score the winning TD with nine seconds left)
2006 Hobart 24 – RPI 17 (Engineers score 14 pts in the 4th quarter but fall short)
2005 Hobart 56 – RPI 48 (3OT game – enough said)
That’s only a 5.5 point average differential between these two rivals over four games!
So are these teams even again this season? Well, both are 4-3 overall with Hobart holding a one game edge in the LL standings. The statistics point to another close game between the Statesmen and the Engineers.
Just how similar (statistically speaking) are these squads? Check out these stats:
Scoring offense (average points per game scored): Hobart 22.9 PPG vs. RPI 21.7 PPG
Scoring defense (average points allowed): Hobart 17.6 PPG vs. RPI 17.9 PPG
Recently; however Hobart seems to be clicking on offense having averaged 30 PPG in their last 3 games. RPI has averaged 18.33 PPG during the same time period.
Total offense (average yards per game gained): Hobart 345.1 YPG vs. RPI 345.4 YPG
Total defense (average yards per game allowed): Hobart 308.3 YPG vs. RPI 329.3 YPG
#1 Hobart vs. #2 RPI in 3rd down conversions
Turnover margin – both are +1
Time of possession average has Hobart with a 30:51 to 28:19 edge (or 2:41) over RPI.
So will Boswell Field bring Hobart a major home field advantage?
Hobart is 3-0 at home this season and is 8-1 at the Boz since 2008. The Statesmen have averaged 29 PPG (offense) vs. only giving up 8 PPG at Boswell this season. However; RPI has averaged 29 PPG on offense in road games and did win their most recent appearance (2007) at Boswell (but with a very different offense given the graduations of former RPI QB Jimmy Robertson and WR Eren Savasli).
Although capable of putting up a lot of points, the RPI offense has struggled in the red zone this year. The Engineers are currently last in the LL in red zone offense only converting 16-26 trips (61.5%) but Hobart is ranked 7th in red zone defense allowing 11-14 attempts for scores (78.6%), so this may be a moot point.
The Engineers are lead by FY QB Michael Hermann who is a threat to run and pass racking up 323 yards rushing, 6 touchdowns while also passing for 1147 yards and 8 touchdowns (163.9 avg). Hermann is fairly accurate earning a 120.2 pass efficiency rating, which is good for #2 in LL this season.
Leading the Engineer rushing attack is SR RB Nick Costa. The SR has tallied 572 yards rushing and four touchdowns on the season. Hermann’s main target in the receiving corp is SR Patrick McCarthy. McCarthy leads the LL with 518 yards receiving and has hauled in four receiving touchdowns this season.
One area where RPI has a clear edge over the Statesmen is in the kicking game. JR PK Peter Nilson is six for nine in field goals (long of 38 yards) and has made all his PAT (18-18) attempts. Hobart has only converted three of seven field goals between SO PK Conor Callahan and SR WR/PK Paul Overdorf.
On defense RPI is lead by SR DB Joe Albano and SR LB Tim Acker who both have 60 total tackles; respectively. JR DL Darryl Brown leads the Engineers defense with 5 sacks.
1. Freshman orientation – Although at 6’ 6” 220 lbs Mike Hermann is a big kid and an exceptional talent that may win his share of games against Hobart in the future; he has never stepped foot on the Boz nor played Hobart to date. Look for the Statesmen defense to exploit this inexperience on Saturday with a mix of blitz schemes and disguised pass coverage. Hermann, like most running QBs, will likely be slowed down given the wet turf (it is supposed to rain all day Friday). The FY has thrown six interceptions (almost a one per game average) so look for the Statesmen to be opportunistic and convert an errant throw into a take-away.
2. Continue the forward progress – Hobart has been on a roll both offensively and defensively coming off their bye two weeks ago. The Statesmen need to maintain this momentum and continue their home streak of scoring first (Hobart has scored 14, 13 and 7 points, respectively in the first quarter of all of their three home games this season). The defense has been equally impressive at home only allowing one touchdown in the first half in three games.
3. Keep the streak alive – This Hobart SR class has never missed the post-season. Although the string of five consecutive NCAA play-off berths was effectively broken with the losses to Dickinson, Susquehanna and Union; the Statesmen would qualify to either host or participate in an ECAC “Regional Bowl Game” if they end the year at 6-3. A 5-4 or 4-5 finish would eliminate them from any post-season consideration. The last time Hobart participated in the ECACs was 2003 when they hosted and subsequently defeated the Norwich University Cadets 34-18 in the “North Atlantic Bowl”.
However, as of this posting the Statesmen have not submitted for consideration for an ECAC berth.
Six teams will be picked from the list of teams that file for consideration. The deadline for consideration without a “late fee” is THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5TH at 5pm EST.
Teams will be selected by the ECAC Football Championships Committee on or about 11/15/09 (following selection of the NCAA Playoffs field). Teams historically have been selected by win-loss record except when ties exist. The #1 team hosts the #6 team, the #2 team hosts the #5 team and the #3 team hosts the #4 team, unless the higher-seeded team does not file to host the game. All games begin at 12pm local time on 11/21/09.
Assuming Hobart DOES file an ECAC bid, this game with RPI is in effect an “ECAC elimination” game for both teams. RPI is undefeated in their ECAC bowls to date, but losing to Hobart (and falling to 4-4, 2-4) would eliminate them from consideration.
All of these factors considered, I am predicting Hobart over RPI in another close one, 21-17.
I will post an update regarding the ECAC filing status and any other pertinent information leading up to Saturday’s contest.
Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!
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