The Hobart Statesmen (2-0) will host the Saint John Fisher College Cardinals (3-0) in the first ever night football game at newly remodeled Boswell Field and Caird Center for Sports and Recreation. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 PM. Fisher brings one of the most potent offenses in the east region averaging over 52 points and almost 500 yards of offense per game. The Statesmen have 10-5 edge in the all time series against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals have won the last three head-to-head match ups with the Statesmen, including the first round of the NCAA playoffs in 2007. Hobart’s last victory over Fisher came back in 2001.
St. John Fisher has now advanced to the postseason each of the last eight years and has enjoyed eight straight winning seasons. Fisher entered the 2010 season with a 55-16 record (77.46%) over the last six years. Hobart, by comparison has a 49-14 record (77.77%). Head coach Paul Vosburgh enters his 20th season at Fisher, and like Mike Cragg, earned his 100th victory in 2009.
The Cardinals passing attack is lead by SR QB Tim Bailey who is off to an incredible start to 2010. He’s already passed for 874 yards (a 291.3 YPG average) completing 66.3% of his attempts and 14 TDs. Last week Bailey passed for 315 yards and four TDs in a 49-21 victory over the Rochester Yellow Jackets (0-2). Although Bailey was picked off twice by the Jackets, his performance secured the win for the Cardinals in the second half and ultimately took him over the 6,000 yard mark for his career.
JR RB FuQuan Borum is the Cardinals’ leading rusher, having tallied 242 yards on 56 attempts (4.3 average) and tallying four rushing TDs. Bailey has multiple targets including an explosive tandem of JR WRs - Ryan Schmidt (22 catches, 333 yards and six TDs) and speedster Ryan Francis (13 catches for 274 yards and three TDs). These Ryan’s are also kick return treats and have combined for 270 return yards and a 86 yard TD to open last weekend’s game against Rochester. SR HB Scott Biehl has only received a few targets, but has made the most of those opportunities, converting two of his four catches into scores.
The Fisher defense has allowed 19.7 PPG and 362.7 YPG on average and are lead by JR LB Joe Leavell (30 tackles), JR FS Adam Burdick (19 tackles) and JR SS Dave Vosburgh (18 tackles). The Cardinals have been opportunistic in the areas of turnovers and have picked off opposing QBs six times, including one returned for a TD. The Cardinals also seem to be especially strong against the run, allowing opponents an average of 110 YPG and four rushing TDs.
Keys to the game:
1. Win the time of possession and turnover battles – I think it goes without saying that the best defense to Fisher’s high octane offense is to keep Bailey and the Cardinals on the Boswell sidelines. While the Statesmen are no slouches on offense – averaging 36.5 PPG and 331.5 YPG in total offense – or on defense – having held teams to only 14 points on average I don’t think they can afford to get into a shoot out with Fisher. That said, I expect healthy doses of FY RB Steven Webb (178 yards rushing, five TDs) behind Hobart’s big and experienced offensive linemen. To do this the Statesmen will need to improve upon their 31% (eight for 26) third down conversion percentage and keep moving the chains (and the clock). Both teams are +4 (Hobart) and +6 (Fisher) in turnover margin, respectively, so something will have to give Saturday. Doug Vella threw his first interception of the season against Carnegie Mellon last Saturday, but was otherwise fairly accurate going 15 for 29 (51.7%) and 274 yards. The Hobart OL will need to keep the pressure off of Vella as the Fisher defense has tallied seven sacks and 17 tackles for a loss so far this season.
2. Establish the Defense Early – Fisher has scored 102 of its 158 points (64.5%) in the first half of this season. Rochester had a good deal of success in the first half and was able to move the ball effectively against the Cardinal defense scoring 21 points, but they also allowed 35 points. The Statesmen tend to defer when they win the coin toss to start the game and I would expect Fisher to want the ball regardless, so the Hobart defense has an opportunity to set the tone of the game if they can limit the Cardinal offense to shorter and (most importantly) low or non-scoring possessions early in the first quarter. The Statesmen DL has been better than expected, especially in pressuring the QB. Hobart has tallied 10 sacks and 18 tackles for loss in its first two games. Obviously the more hits they can make on Bailey – who’s been very well protected by his OL (only two sacks so far over three games) – the better.
3. Make (and Don’t Allow) the Big Play(s) – The Statesmen have broke open their past two games with big plays on offense – the fake punt conversion and 90 yard kickoff return for a TD in the Dickinson game and the intentional onside kick in the CMU game – and defense (the punt block for TD in CMU game) this season. That said, there is greater risk going for it against a team like Fisher, and the Hobart defense and special teams will want avoid the mistakes Rochester made (e.g., the Francis 86 yard kickoff return for a TD and the 84 yard Bailey to Francis TD pass). Needless to say, the Francis vs. JR CB Drake Woodard match up will have a huge impact on this game.
4. Home Sweet Home – Hobart hasn’t lost a game at Boswell Field since October of 2008 (three FG misses costing them a win over Union College). There is a lot of excitement around Geneva over it being the first ever football night game in Hobart history and Homecoming weekend. Fisher being in nearby Rochester will likely mean a decent travel crowd for the visitors. That said, hopefully the team and the home crowd can channel that energy (and related noise from cheering) and disrupt the Fisher offense on Saturday night.
Prediction:
As I stated on last Sunday’s (9/19) “In the HuddLLe” broadcast, this is a tough call for me. On one hand I want to go with my heart that believes Hobart can pull off the “upset”. On the other hand, the statistical analysis, QB comparisons and other data point to a potential 10 or 14 point Cardinal victory. I don’t expect Fisher to hit their season average with respect to points given I believe the Hobart defense is the best unit they have faced to date. Still, the same is true for the Cardinal defense for the Statesmen offense, so QB Doug Vella’s ability to drive Hobart down the field and limit mistakes will be just as significant.
That said, in the interest of being objective, I am going to predict a 35-24 Fisher win over the Statesmen on Saturday night. Hopefully Hobart will rise to the occasion and prove me wrong! I know I am certainly looking forward to being in attendance and seeing my first football game at the new Boz (and first home football game since 1997).
For those you alumni/ae coming back – look for me and my former college band (The "Rum Runner Band" which consists of Brady Shelsy, Jim Mastrianni and Chris Hamlen) as we’ll be performing right next to Boswell Field about and hour (starting at 5:30 PM ET) as part of the pregame Homecoming festivities.
Go ‘Bart!
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